Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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FXUS63 KBIS 262349

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
649 PM CDT THU MAY 26 2016

Issued at 632 PM CDT Thu May 26 2016

At 630 pm CDT a line of thunderstorms extended E-W from near
Williston east to 10 miles south of Minot moving north about 10
miles an hour. Storms have been getting slowly stronger late this
afternoon. Main threats are hail and the occasional funnel cloud
as the non supercell parameter is high. Focused highest pops
along highway 2 corridor this evening between Williston and
Rugby. Expect the storms to rapidly diminish after 9 pm CDT.


.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 221 PM CDT Thu May 26 2016

Current surface analysis places low over southeastern Manitoba,
with trough dropping back to the west/southwest. Slow moving upper
low continues to loiter over far west-central into northwest North
Dakota. Scattered showers/thunderstorms continue to develop in
strong cyclonic flow around upper low in vicinity aforementioned
surface trough.

For the remainder of this afternoon into tonight, showers/storms
will continue to develop around aforementioned upper low. Many
reports of small hail have come which seem reasonable given the
cooler temperatures aloft in the vicinity of the surface low
combined with modest instability. With that said, with minimal
deep layer shear available expect the severe threat to remain low
and if one did become strong would expect it to be short lived.
Coverage should gradually dissipate this evening with the loss of
daytime heating.

On Friday, upper low gradually lifts towards the northeast
bringing another round of shower and thunderstorm chances,
particularly over the northern and eastern locations in areas of
greatest cyclonic flow.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
Issued at 221 PM CDT Thu May 26 2016

Active southwesterly flow will continue over the Northern Plains
through the first part of next week, bringing daily chances for
showers and thunderstorms along with near to slightly above
average temperatures. Models are in agreement on sliding a broad
upper low over the area towards the middle of next week, which
would bring greater chances for precipitation.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening)
Issued at 632 PM CDT Thu May 26 2016

An upper level low pressure area forecast to be near Stanley ND
at 7 pm CDT Thursday will support thunderstorms from KISN-KMOT.
Thunderstorms ending by 03z. Otherwise VFR all TAF sites through
12z. MVFR ceilings expected to develop KISN-KMOT after 12z Friday as
strato-cu clouds develop.


.BIS Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


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