Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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000
FXUS63 KBIS 232200
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
400 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)

ISSUED AT 400 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

WITH THE SURFACE PRESSURE ISALLOBARIC RISE NOW IN CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA WILL BE ABLE TO CANCEL THE WIND ADVISORY NORTHWEST WHERE
WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED. ALSO SHORTENED THE REMAINING ADVISORY
AREA OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA TO 03Z...BUT LEFT THE
JAMES RIVER VALLEY GOING THROUGH 06Z. SNOW REDUCING VISIBILITIES
DOWN TO 1 TO 3 MILES FROM ROLLA TO RUGBY AT THIS TIME. TRENDED THE
POPS DOWN QUICKLY THIS EVENING WEST AND TRIMMED BACK EAST AS THE
SYSTEM IS MOVING OUT. DECREASING CLOUDS WEST TONIGHT AND PARTLY TO
MOSTLY SUNNY AND COOL MONDAY. STILL BREEZY EAST.


.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)

ISSUED AT 400 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

MAIN FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND THE CONTINUED BATTLE BETWEEN COLD AIR
TO OUR NORTH AND MILD PACIFIC AIR TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST. MODELS
CONTINUE TO GO BACK AND FORTH BETWEEN THE VARYING SOLUTIONS
RESULTING IN OVERALL FORECAST CONFIDENCE LOWER THAN AVERAGE.

WEAK EMBEDDED ENERGY WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION IN
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT MONDAY NIGHT SO WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
LIGHT SNOW IN THE FORECAST.

TUESDAY...A STRONGER SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED SFC LOW PRESSURE
WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. 12Z GFS IS AN
OUTLIER WITH A FARTHER WESTWARD TRACK THROUGH WESTERN ND...WHILE
BOTH THE 12Z GEM/ECMWF SOLUTIONS MAINTAIN A TRACK THROUGH NORTH
CENTRAL INTO EASTERN ND. HPC WWD DEPICTS GENERALLY 1-2 INCHES
NORTH OF A LINE FROM WILLISTON TO GARRISON TO JAMESTOWN...WITH
2-4 INCHES OVER OUR FAR NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST CWA THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT FOLLOWING A NON-GFS BLEND. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION
THIS IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. I DID KEEP POPS BELOW
LIKELY DUE TO THE SPREAD OF MODELS. WILL ALSO NEED TO MONITOR
WINDS ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SFC LOW AS WE SHOULD SEE A BRIEF
PERIOD OF GUSTY WINDS WHICH MAY RESULT IN BLOWING SNOW HAZARDS.

A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS STILL DEPICTED TO DEVELOP
ORIENTATED NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST FROM NORTHERN MONTANA THROUGH
SOUTHWEST ND/WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
ALOFT A STRONG JET STREAK WILL INTERACT WITH THE SFC BOUNDARY TO
PRODUCE A SWATH OF ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL UNDER STRONG THERMAL LIFT
ALONG TO EAST OF THE FRONT. MODEL SPREAD STILL LARGE AT THIS POINT
REGARDING PLACEMENT AND AMOUNTS. GENERALLY KEPT HIGHER POPS
CONFINED TO OUR SOUTHWEST AS WAS INHERITED FROM THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST. WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT IN THE HWO. ANY IMPACTS FROM
BLOWING SNOW SHOULD BE MINIMAL AS WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE TOO
STRONG.

MODEL DIVERGENCE ONLY INCREASES AFTER WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...FLUCTUATING FROM WET/DRY AND WARM/COLD. MAIN CULPRIT IS
THE UPPER JET ALOFT OVER THE REGION. A SLIGHT NUDGE OF THIS
FEATURE NORTH OR SOUTH...OR EAST OR WEST...GREATLY IMPACTS WHERE
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LIE ALONG WITH THE FUTURE STORM TRACK.
BASICALLY THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE FLUCTUATING RUN TO RUN AND WITH
EACH OTHER TO CREATE A WIDE VARIETY OF FORECAST SCENARIOS.
HOPEFULLY FUTURE RUNS BECOME MORE IN PHASE AND REMAIN SO AS WE
APPROACH A BUSY TRAVEL PERIOD. IF PLANNING TRAVEL OR KNOW OF
SOMEBODY PLANNING TRAVEL NEXT WEEK...STAY TUNED FOR UPDATES.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)

ISSUED AT 400 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE MOVING EAST FROM NORTHERN MINNESOTA AS HIGH
PRESSURE ACROSS SASKATCHEWAN MOVES SOUTHEAST TONIGHT. MVFR
IMPROVING TO VFR TONIGHT ALL BUT JAMES RIVER VALLEY. KJMS IMPVG
TO VFR AFTER 14Z. WINDS AND SNOW DIMINISHING AND ENDING FROM WEST
TO EAST TONIGHT.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CST /8 PM MST/ THIS EVENING FOR
NDZ003>005-011>013-019>023-033>035-040>045.

WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR NDZ025-036-037-
046>048-050-051.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...WAA
LONG TERM...NH
AVIATION...WAA







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