Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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291
FXUS63 KBIS 110545
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1145 PM CST WED FEB 10 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1145 PM CST WED FEB 10 2016

REGIONAL RADAR SHOWS REFLECTIVITYS INCREASING ACROSS SOUTHWEST
SASKATCHEWAN AND INTO EASTERN MONTANA. SOME ENHANCEMENT ALSO
SHOWING UP IN NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA. 00Z MODEL GUIDANCE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH LIGHT SNOW DEVELOPING NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
OVERNIGHT. THUS LIGHT SNOW WILL BE INTO WILLISTON WITHIN THE NEXT
HOUR OR TWO...AND THEN INTO BISMARCK AROUND 6AM CST THURSDAY.
THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF A JET STREAK PROPAGATING ACROSS CENTRAL
MONTANA WILL PROVIDE LARGE SCALE ASCENT UNTIL MID AFTERNOON
THURSDAY. THUS LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS WEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL
LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. NAM/RAP/HRRR BUFKIT SOUNDINGS ALL
POINT TO A QUICK SATURATION THROUGH THE COLUMN OVERNIGHT. THUS
RISK OF PATCHY LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL WANE FROM WEST TO EAST
THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 932 PM CST WED FEB 10 2016

MAIN UPDATE LATE THIS EVENING WAS TO ADD A MENTION OF PATCHY
FREEZING DRIZZLE BACK TO THE FORECAST THIS EVENING. LOWER LAYERS
HAVE BEEN MOISTENING UP ACROSS THE NORTHWEST INTO THE WEST
CENTRAL. ALSO RECEIVED A REPORT OF LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE AT
GRASSY BUTTE. LATEST RAP BUFKIT SOUNDINGS DO SUPPORT A PERIOD OF
DRIZZLE MAINLY BEFORE MIDNIGHT ACROSS THIS AREA...BEFORE THE
ENTIRE COLUMN MOISTENS. THUS ADDED A MENTION BACK TO THE NORTHWEST
THROUGH 06Z AND THEN SHIFTED IT INTO THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH 09Z.

TEMPERATURES LOOK REASONABLE. ROLLA IN THE FAR NORTH CENTRAL HAS
DROPPED TO ZERO IN A SMALL CLEAR PATCH AND COULD DROP A FEW MORE
DEGREES. TREND THOUGH IS FOR STEADY OR SLOWLY RISING TEMPERATURES
AS CLOUDS INCREASE FROM THE WEST.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 637 PM CST WED FEB 10 2016

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE THAT MOVED THROUGH THE AREA LAST NIGHT INTO
TODAY HAS MOVED WELL SOUTH. HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DROP SOUTH
FROM MANITOBA INTO EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND MINNESOTA...WHILE A
LEE SIDE TROUGH IS TAKING SHAPE OVER THE NORTHERN AND CANADIAN
ROCKIES.

THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO EASTERN MONTANA TONIGHT AND
COMBINED WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY ALONG THE BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL
PRODUCE LIGHT SNOW WHICH IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD INTO WESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA AFTER MIDNIGHT. UNTIL THEN...T/TD SPREAD REMAIN
PRETTY HIGH ACROSS THE WEST WITH WIDESPREAD STRATUS OVER ALL BUT
THE FAR SOUTHWEST CORNER OF THE STATE. THUS THINK THE RISK OF
FREEZING DRIZZLE THIS EVENING IS MINIMAL. AS WE HEAD INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS...MOISTURE INCREASES THROUGHOUT THE ATMOSPHERIC
COLUMN AND DRY LAYERS ALOFT...CONDUCIVE TO DRIZZLE QUICKLY MOISTEN
UP. THUS HAVE ALSO REMOVED THE MENTION OF DRIZZLE AFTER MIDNIGHT.
WILL KEEP A MENTION OF FOG AS SURFACE MOISTURE WILL INCREASE AS
WE MOVE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 254 PM CST WED FEB 10 2016

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES LOW/BOUNDARY STRETCHING THROUGH
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA INTO CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA/NEBRASKA WHILE HIGH
REMAINS OVER THE GREAT BASIN. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS PLACES BROAD RIDGE
OVER THE WESTERN CONUS WITH BROAD TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS
BRINGING FAST NORTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER OUR AREA. SOME LIGHT SNOW
LINGERS OVER EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA AS RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION
OF AN UPPER JET STREAK WORKS ITS WAY OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST.

FOR THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...SOME LIGHT SNOW MAY
LINGER OVER THE EASTERN PART OF THE AREA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS
THE AFOREMENTIONED JET CONTINUES ON ITS WAY. CLOUDY CONDITIONS
WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA...WHILE OVER THE SOUTHWEST LATEST
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST SOME FOG WITH PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE
MAY DEVELOP. LATER TONIGHT BROAD SHORT WAVE MOVES INTO THE REGION
RESULTING IN AN ELONGATED AREA OF MODEST LIFT OVER WESTERN PARTS
OF NORTH DAKOTA. THEREFORE...EXPECT SOME LIGHT SNOW TO DEVELOP AND
GRADUALLY SPREAD SOUTHERLY.

FOR THURSDAY...BROAD AREA OF MODEST LIFT SPREADS EASTERLY INTO
CENTRAL PARTS OF NORTH DAKOTA WITH THE GREATEST CHANCES FOR SNOW
SPREADING FROM WEST CENTRAL TO SOUTH CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE
STATE WHERE A BROAD SWATH OF 1 TO 3 INCHES MAY FALL. OVER THE FAR
SOUTHWEST...WARMER CONDITIONS MAY LEAD TO PERIODS OF RAIN
DEVELOPING BY MID-DAY INTO THE AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 254 PM CST WED FEB 10 2016

AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH THE LONG TERM.

NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL BRING
SEVERAL WAVES ACROSS THE REGION.

THE FIRST WAVE IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE THURSDAY. AS THE BAROCLINIC
ZONE SHIFTS WEST...SNOW WILL LIKELY OVERSPREAD WESTERN AND SOUTH
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. HOWEVER...ONLY MINOR ACCUMULATIONS ARE
EXPECTED...GENERALLY AROUND ONE INCH.

THE NEXT WAVE IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT NORTH DAKOTA BEGINNING FRIDAY
NIGHT AND PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. THIS WAVE IS EXPECTED TO
BRING A LITTLE MORE MOISTURE TO THE REGION THAN PREVIOUS SYSTEMS
AS THIS WAVE WILL HAVE MORE OF A PACIFIC COMPONENT TO IT. WHILE
FORCING DOES NOT APPEAR TOO STRONG WITH THIS WAVE...PERSISTENT
LIGHT SNOW WITH BROAD SCALE LIFT OVER A 36 HOUR PERIOD COULD
BRING SNOWFALL AMOUNTS INTO THE 2 TO 4 INCH RANGE. MODELS ARE JUST
BEGINNING TO COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE EVOLUTION OF THIS
SYSTEM...SO DETAILS WILL BE FURTHER REFINED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS AND AMOUNTS/PRECIP TYPE COULD CHANGE QUITE A BIT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1145 PM CST WED FEB 10 2016

LIGHT SNOW AND FOG WILL RESULT IN CIGS/VSBYS TO DETERIORATE INTO
THE IFR/LIFR RANGE AT KISN/KDIK/KBIS 06Z-12Z THURSDAY AND
CONTINUE UNTIL AROUND 00Z FRIDAY. KMOT AND KJMS WILL REMAIN ON
THE EASTERN FRINGE OF THE LIGHT SNOW/PRECIPITATION SHIELD...THUS
VSBYS WILL REMAIN IN THE MVFR TO VFR CATEGORY...WHILE CIGS WILL BE
IN THE MVFR RANGE.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...KS
SHORT TERM...JJS
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...KS



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