Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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FXUS63 KBIS 251349

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
849 AM CDT Sat Mar 25 2017

Issued at 849 AM CDT Sat Mar 25 2017

Latest fog/stratus and surface observations indicate the primary
area of low clouds/fog stretch along and east of a line from
Rolla to Carrington and Harvey, into Bismarck/Mandan and Linton.
Latest high resolution models HRRR/RAP/GLAMP Meld/NAMNEST all
indicate that between 16z and 18Z the fog will lift and dissipate,
with the stratus deck lagging behind but eroding between 18z and 20z.
However, mid/high clouds streaming from southwest to northeast in
western ND will also begin to edge into central ND as well this
afternoon. Thus the mostly cloudy sky is on track. Minor tweak to
pops in the west as the Bowman Radar continues to show a trend
toward higher reflectivities. Cloud ceilings remain high at around
10kft to 12kft, so a lot of this is likely virga; but it is also
moistening up the drier layers below cloud base. Will keep an
isolated mention of rain showers through the morning in portions
of the west to account for this. Rest of the forecast elements in
good shape.

UPDATE Issued at 600 AM CDT Sat Mar 25 2017

Have updated to add a small chance of rain showers early this morning
in the northwest based on radar returns approaching that area.


.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 440 AM CDT Sat Mar 25 2017

Moisture was streaming in to the forecast area from both sides,
mid and high level from the west ahead of the approaching trough
that will bring precipitation later, and low level from the east
between the surface low over Missouri and surface high over

Low clouds were becoming more extensive and patchy fog had formed
in clear areas of the east.

For today, mostly cloudy in the east to southeast moist flow.
Ahead of the long wave trough crossing the Rockies will be two
short waves. The first, in the northern stream, moves into
Saskatchewan taking the lift associated with it north of the
border. This should deliver clouds at worst. The second, farther
south in the H5 flow, is weaker than earlier anticipated. Surface
convergence along the frontal boundary, and at least weak
lifting, should be enough to trigger showers very late in the day
in the west. The issue tonight becomes how low temperatures fall
before the showers advance east overnight. Thermal profiles are
indicating that the lower levels could be cold enough for ice
pellets (sleet) and some freezing rain in the area east of

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 440 AM CDT Sat Mar 25 2017

The longer term continues with continuity showing unsettled
periods about every other day or so. Precipitation type is rain
during the daytime and possibly a mix at night.

Synoptic scale models continue to show a progressive pattern with
troughing every other day or so in the fast flow. The troughs
continue to dig across the south and push east, keeping north
Dakota on the northern edge of the action. Precipitation is
not expected to be significant, a tenth of an inch or so with each
passing system. Lows 25 to 35 and highs in the 40s and 50s.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday morning)
Issued at 600 AM CDT Sat Mar 25 2017

A very moist east / southeast low level flow has increased the
moisture across the forecast area. A large area of IFR ceilings
was pushing toward the west in that low level flow while mid and
high level moistures streamed in from the southwest. IFR ceilings
and patchy fog will slowly improve as the morning weirs on. A rain
shower is possible at KISN before 25/16Z and at KDIK after




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