Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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FXUS63 KBIS 241746
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
1246 PM CDT TUE MAY 24 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1242 PM CDT Tue May 24 2016

The current forecast looks to be on track. Just blended the latest
observations to the current forecast. No major changes needed.

UPDATE Issued at 853 AM CDT Tue May 24 2016

Quiet weather remains this morning as upper low continues to spin
over southern Saskatchewan. Latest guidance continues to show the
possibility of some showers/weak thunderstorms developing over
northwest North Dakota in cyclonic flow around the low. Updates
have been sent.

UPDATE Issued at 610 AM CDT Tue May 24 2016

Quick update to blend to observed trends. Overall, the previous
forecast is well supported by the 06-10 UTC suites. Did introduce
afternoon PoPs across the far southwest given agreement among the
09 UTC HRRR/Experimental HRRR and the 00 UTC Hi-Res Window WRFs,
all suggesting possible isolated high based convective
development with a few leading impulses propagating northeast out
of the southwest CONUS low.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 314 AM CDT Tue May 24 2016

Thunderstorm potential tonight highlights the short term
forecast.

Morning elevated convection across the James River Valley and far
south central North Dakota is expected to become focused across
the northern Red River Valley after 10 UTC per observed radar
trends through 08 UTC and the 06-07 UTC HRRR iterations.
Otherwise, a dry day is forecast with the exception of far
northwest North Dakota where diurnally driven scattered showers
and thunderstorms are possible in the vicinity of the upper level
low.

For tonight, the 00-06 UTC high resolution suites are in agreement
on convection developing this afternoon across eastern Wyoming in
association with the shortwave across the southwest CONUS this
morning. The consensus is for this convection to potentially
propagate northeast into western and central North Dakota through
the night aided by modest low level warm air advection and
moisture transport along and east of the inverted trough extending
into southwest North Dakota. Given marginal moisture and shear,
severe weather is not expected.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 314 AM CDT Tue May 24 2016

An active weather pattern through the weekend highlights the
extended forecast.

The 00 UTC global and ensemble suites are in agreement on
potential phasing Wednesday across the Northern Plains of the
upper level low across southern Saskatchewan this morning with the
aforementioned shortwave from the short term. This would favor
likely showers and thunderstorms. Will disregard the 00 UTC NAM
given likely convective feedback driving is anomalously deep low
Wednesday night into Thursday. Overall, cloud cover from morning
convection may limit insolation and instability build up through
the day and the severe convective threat. Thus, the SPC Day 2
Convective Outlook has a marginal risk only across the far
southern James River Valley of central North Dakota. The active
weather pattern with daily chances for showers and thunderstorms
continues into the weekend under favorable southwest flow aloft.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 1242 PM CDT Tue May 24 2016

VFR conditions and generally light southwest winds will dominate
the first part of the forecast period. As we turn to late
afternoon and the early evening hours...chances of showers and
thunderstorms will begin to increase from west to east and
continue through the overnight hours and Wednesday. Periods of
MVFR ceilings/visibilities and gustier winds can be expected in
heavier showers or thunderstorms.

&&

.BIS Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...ZH
AVIATION...ZH


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