Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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FXUS63 KBIS 261743

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
1243 PM CDT FRI AUG 26 2016

Issued at 1235 PM CDT Fri Aug 26 2016

A few minor adjustments were made to the precipitation forecast
for today. Showers and thunderstorms are slow to develop early
this afternoon. Short term guidance continues to indicate
scattered showers and thunderstorms will develop later this
afternoon across most of the area. Western North Dakota is
beginning to clear out and allow for more destabilization.

UPDATE Issued at 944 AM CDT Fri Aug 26 2016

Made a few minor adjustments to sky cover and pops. Isolated
showers are slowly pushing into the southwest and far south
central, a little slower than previously forecast. Utilized a mix
of current forecast with the latest time lagged consensus of short
term models to trim back a bit on pops through the morning.
Otherwise no significant changes to the going forecast.

Issued at 624 AM CDT Fri Aug 26 2016

Inherited forecast looking good. Trends remain on track so only
blended to latest observations.


.SHORT TERM...(Today through Saturday)

Issued at 344 AM CDT Fri Aug 26 2016

Forecast highlights in the short term period will be chances for
showers and thunderstorms today through tonight.

Currently...Longwave trough across the Rockies developing east
towards the Great Plains region. Increasing clouds across Montana
and into portions of western and north central ND ahead of this
feature. Weak echos across northeastern MT though ceilings remain
above 10K AGL. Thus doubtful much if any of this moisture is
reaching the surface so kept things dry through 12Z.

Area of precipitation continues to be advertised by high res
models moving into southwest & south central ND after 14Z and
perhaps closer to 18Z. This area of showers and isold
thunderstorms showing up now on regional radar near the Black
Hills moving north. Overall today will see increasing chances for
light showers south and west 12-18Z this morning as the long wave
trough approaches our region. Increasing instability Friday
afternoon - Friday night as low level moisture advects into the
Dakotas (coupled with the increase in mid/upper level forcing)
will then see the best chance for showers and scattered
thunderstorms across west and central North Dakota. A stronger
storm or two possible this evening and overnight tonight when the
more favorable instability is advertised.

Upper level trough will be over the central Dakotas by 12Z
Saturday, then moves off to our east Saturday afternoon. A dry
southwest mid level flow along with decrease in forcing will end
precipitation chances from west to east during the morning into
the afternoon.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday Night through Thursday)

Issued at 344 AM CDT Fri Aug 26 2016

Warming temperatures back to normal values in the 80s Sunday into
next week highlight the extended forecast.

Behind Friday`s trough our flow aloft becomes quasi-zonal through
Monday, favoring WAA with more seasonable temperatures forecast.
This pattern would also favor a mainly dry forecast. Afterwards,
a slowly amplifying broad upper ridge towards the middle of the
week is favored maintaining warm temperatures across the Northern
Plains. Ridge running impulses embedded in the flow will bring on
and off thunderstorms with low predictability.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 1235 PM CDT Fri Aug 26 2016

VFR conditions are expected at all terminals through the TAF
period. Scattered rain showers and thunderstorms could impact some
terminals later this afternoon and evening, but confidence is not
high enough to warrant anything more than a vicinity mention at
this time.


.BIS Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


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