Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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FXUS63 KBIS 272034
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
334 PM CDT Mon Mar 27 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)

Issued at 334 PM CDT Mon Mar 27 2017

Forecast challenges in the short term period will be stratus and
fog coverage tonight & tomorrow, along with precipitation
chances/placement.

Currently, embedded mid level impulse moving easterly across
western and central North Dakota combining with weak instability
and an easterly upslope flow to result in a scattered showers
along a west to east orientated stationary front from eastern MT
through McKenzie-central Dunn-Mercer-southern McLean/Sheridan
counties. Expect this activity to linger through the
afternoon/early evening before dissipating. Stratus and areas of
fog remain over my north central and far northeast.

Another area of light precipitation will move across northwestern
and far north central ND tonight associated with another embedded
wave now moving into northeastern Montana. Otherwise the main
concern tonight will be stratus and fog. High res models have
persistently shown the low cigs/fog across the north developing
south with time tonight with the exception of the southwest on the
other side of the frontal zone. Also, dry air associated with
high pressure over northern/central Manitoba will eventually work
into the area tonight eroding the areas of fog over my
northeastern counties. Basically followed the HRRR guidance for
placement of stratus and fog which develops a northwest to
southeast orientated area from northwest ND to across the James
River Valley. Fog will likely linger into Tuesday morning.

Another mild day Tuesday with decent chances for rain over
southwestern ND. Mainly dry central and east.


.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)

Issued at 334 PM CDT Mon Mar 27 2017

Mild/above normal temperatures will continue through the period.

Best chance for precipitation looks to be late Thursday night-
Friday-Friday night when a northern stream S/WV trough pushes
across the Northern Plains. Otherwise mainly dry conditions will
prevail.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)

Issued at 103 PM CDT Mon Mar 27 2017

A cold front situated from northwest into southeast North Dakota
will become nearly stationary today. This boundary will be the
focus for potential fog and stratus development through the 18Z
TAF period. Areas IFR cigs and near KMOT early this afternoon and
have a mention of IFR ceiling there. Otherwise expect more
widespread IFR ceilings and visibilities this evening through 18Z
Tuesday, especially at KMOT, but also spreading south and west to
KISN and KJMS. Some models spread low stratus through KBIS as
well. At this time it appears KDIK should remain VFR.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...NH
LONG TERM...NH
AVIATION...TWH



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