Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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FXUS63 KBIS 301125

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
625 AM CDT Fri Sep 30 2016


Issued at 625 AM CDT Fri Sep 30 2016

Forecast remains on track. Did increase POPs a bit across the
west to get scattered wording into the forecast as getting a few
reports of light rain the past couple of hours.


.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)

Issued at 308 AM CDT Fri Sep 30 2016

Forecast highlights in the short term period will be chances for
showers today west and north central.

Currently, blocking pattern broke down yesterday replaced with
southwest flow aloft, as embedded mid level S/WV impulses lifted
northeast across the Rockies and into our region. Strong southerly
return flow in place with deepening low pressure across the high
plains of WY/MT the last 24 hours. 40-45KT Low Level Jet centered
over the western Dakotas helping in the development of showers
over my west central and southwest counties, developing north and
slightly east. Kept POPs relatively low (20-30%) with cloud bases
AOB 10K FT AGL. Much of the radar returns likely not reaching the
surface though have seen an ob or two reporting light rain.

Embedded S/WV`s will continue northeast today across the state
maintaining a chance for showers west into north central, ending
north this evening. Breezy conditions today as gradient winds
generate 15-20KT sustained southerly winds most areas.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)

Issued at 308 AM CDT Fri Sep 30 2016

Main highlights in the long term period will continue to be
thunderstorm chances increasing later this weekend and into early
next week, followed by cooler temperatures and a very active
weather pattern for next week.

Models remain in fair agreement with a closed upper low moving
onshore the Northern California coast Sunday, then progresses east
across the Intermountain West/Central Rockies early in the week.
This feature then lifts northeast through the Northern Plains
mid-week, with both the 00Z GFS/ECMWF pushing the low off to our
east by Friday.

Dry conditions Saturday with models showing a S/WV ridge over the
region. Afterwards, a series of embedded mid level impulses
originating from the aforementioned closed low eject northeast
into the Dakotas later this weekend and early next week. Coupled
with a quasi-stationary/slowly eastward progressing surface
boundary, will see precipitation chances increase Saturday night
west then area wide Sunday and Monday. Models continue to keep
much of western and central ND in the warm sector of this
boundary, so will see decent instability and shear for possible
organized thunderstorm activity, especially for Monday when models
paint 1-2K J/KG of MUCAPE over portions of the Dakotas along with
30-40KTs of 0-6KM shear.

As the upper low lifts into and through the Dakotas mid-week,
wrap around moisture and CAA may bring a mix of rain/snow or all
snow to areas of western ND late Wednesday night and again
Thursday night. There remains considerable model-to-model and
run-to-run differences regarding the amount of CAA and QPF, so
overall confidence for snow remains low at this time.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday morning)

Issued at 625 AM CDT Fri Sep 30 2016

Low-level wind shear is ongoing across central ND early this morning
with 35 kt southerly winds near 2000 ft AGL at KBIS, KMOT, and KJMS.
Expect the low-level wind shear to diminish by 15 UTC as the surface
winds become breezy, with southerly gusts up to 25 kt across much of
western and central ND today. VFR conditions will prevail today and
tonight with mid- and high-level cloud cover. There will also be a
few light showers in the west and north central today.





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