Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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000
FXUS63 KBIS 011943
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
243 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 223 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

SEVERE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL ACROSS THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY THIS
AFTERNOON HIGHLIGHTS THE SHORT TERM FORECAST.

VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1920 UTC CONTINUES TO DEPICT A
DEVELOPING CUMULUS FIELD BETWEEN JAMESTOWN...STEELE AND EDGELEY.
THE 13-18 UTC HRRR ITERATIONS HAVE ALL DEPICTED CONVECTIVE
INITIATION FOR THIS AREA BY 21 UTC IN AN ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED
BY ML CAPE AROUND 2000-3000 J/KG AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 30-40
KTS. WITH A SHORTWAVE EVIDENT JUST UPSTREAM ON WATER
VAPOR...CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL IS INCREASING ALONG WITH THE THREAT
FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS IN AN ENVIRONMENT SUPPORTIVE OF
SUPERCELLS...AND HAVE THUS ADDED SEVERE WORDING TO THE JAMES RIVER
VALLEY FOR THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT THE THREAT TO QUICKLY EXIT INTO
THE GRAND FORKS CWA BY 00 UTC.

LATER THIS EVENING A COLD FRONT WILL PROPAGATE FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA...YIELDING A COOLER BUT STILL
SEASONABLE SUNDAY FOR EARLY AUGUST.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)

ISSUED AT 240 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. DRY CONDITIONS
EXPECTED WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE FIRMLY IN PLACE ACROSS THE
DAKOTAS. DEEP UPPER LOW MOVING SOUTH INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION
SUNDAY WILL PUSH A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS
AND KEEP TEMPERATURES RELATIVELY COOL IN THE 70S TO LOW 80S MONDAY
AND TUESDAY.

A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN MATERIALIZES MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK WHEN OUR
FLOW TRANSITIONS TO MORE ZONAL ALLOWING SEVERAL EMBEDDED WAVES TO
MOVE THROUGH THE REGION. BEST THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BE
CONFINED TO THE SOUTH AND WEST INITIALLY...UNTIL LATER IN THE
WEEK WHEN A CLOSED MID LEVEL CROSSES THE ALBERTA ROCKIES AND MOVES
INTO NORTH DAKOTA FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES DO NOT RECOVER MUCH FROM
EARLY IN THE WEEK...AND LOOK TO REMAIN BELOW AVERAGE FOR EARLY
AUGUST WED-FRI (70S TO LOW 80S).


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 223 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. LIGHT
WINDS SHOULD BECOME SOUTHERLY OR SOUTHWESTERLY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
THAT IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH KISN AROUND 00Z...AND THROUGH KMOT
AND KDIK AROUND 04Z SATURDAY EVENING...REACHING KJMS AROUND 09Z.
SOUTHWEST WINDS COULD BE GUSTY AT TIMES AT KISN AND KDIK THIS
AFTERNOON. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE NEAR AND SOUTH OF
KJMS THIS AFTERNOON...POSSIBLY SEVERE.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...AYD
LONG TERM...NH
AVIATION...AYD


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