Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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FXUS63 KBIS 290537
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1237 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1237 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

STRONG WINDS IN THE HIGH WIND WARNING AREA ARE NOW TRENDING
LOWER...MORE IN LINE WITH WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA/SUSTAINED 30 MPH
TO 39 MPH OR GUSTS FROM 45 MPH TO 57 MPH. LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS
PLACES THE 3HR PRESSURE BUBBLE RISE OF 5MB NEAR MINOT. THE RAP13
HAS A SECOND RESURGENCE OF PRESSURE RISES FORMING OVER WESTERN
SASKATCHEWAN AFTER 09Z WEDNESDAY...THEN SLIDES IT SOUTHEAST INTO
THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS AND NOSING INTO THE NORTHERN JAMES RIVER
VALLEY. 00Z NAM BUFKIT SOUNDINGS CONTINUE WITH THE IDEA OF AT/NEAR
WIND ADVISORY WEDNESDAY MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON...BEFORE
WEAKENING EARLY WEDNESDAY EVENING. MIXED LAYER WINDS 25KT TO 30KT
WITH MAX WINDS AT THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER AROUND 40KT. THUS
DECISION WAS TO CANCEL THE HIGH WIND WARNING IN THE FAR
NORTHWEST...AND REPLACE THE HIGH WIND WARNING FOR CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA INCLUDING THE NORTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY WITH A WIND
ADVISORY THROUGH 7 PM CDT WEDNESDAY. GRANTED THERE WILL SOME LULL
IN THE STRONGEST WINDS CAUSING WINDS TO FALL BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA
NEAR/BEFORE SUNRISE WEDNESDAY...BUT WINDS WILL QUICKLY RISE AGAIN
AS MIXING HEIGHTS INCREASE SHORTLY THEREAFTER. THIS WILL PROMPT WINDS
TO ONCE AGAIN MEET ADVISORY CRITERIA. REST OF FORECAST REMAINS ON
TRACK WITH SHOWERS IN THE FAR NORTH CENTRAL DWINDLING THROUGH 12Z
WEDNESDAY.

UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1003 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

STRONG WINDS CONTINUE NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL...AS WELL AS A
TAD FARTHER SOUTH. OPTED TO EXTEND HEADLINES TILL 1AM CDT.
SOUTHWEST ND WINDS HAVE COME DOWN SIGNIFICANTLY SO ALLOWED THE
HIGH WIND WARNING TO EXPIRE THERE.

UPDATE
ISSUED AT 705 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

INHERITED FORECAST ON TRACK. ONLY MINOR EDITS WERE NEEDED FOR THE
EARLY EVENING FORECAST ISSUANCE.

STRONG WINDS CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION. WINDS CONTINUE TO
GUST OVER 50KTS WEST AND CENTRAL WHERE THE HIGH WIND WARNING IS IN
EFFECT. BUFKIT ANALYSIS INDICATES GUSTS TO 70-75 MPH NOT OUT OF
THE QUESTION OVER THE NEXT 1-3 HOURS WITH STRONG PRESSURE RISES
TAKING PLACE IN THE WAKE OF THE DEEP AREA OF LOW PRESSURE. WINDS
SHOULD WEAKEN A BIT 3Z-5Z LATER THIS EVENING AS THE TOP OF THE
MIXING LAYER LOWERS...BUT WILL REMAIN GUSTY ACROSS MY NORTH
CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST. FOR NOW WILL LEAVE THE HIGH WIND WARNING AS
IS. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY PARTS MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED IN TIME
INTO THE EARLY MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 253 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

DEEP SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER SOUTHEAST SASKATCHEWAN
WILL MOVE EAST TONIGHT. HIGH WIND WARNING CRITERIA BEING MET
ACROSS THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE STATE SO FAR TODAY. MAIN CHANGE
TO HEADLINES WILL BE TO EXTEND THE HIGH WIND WARNING WEST SEVERAL
MORE HOURS INTO THIS EVENING AS THE H850 WINDS AND BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS SHOW MOMENTUM TRANSFER THROUGH 04Z. RADAR AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS SHOW SHOWERS EXTEND ACROSS NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA.
WILL SPREAD AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AS FAR SOUTHEAST
AS BISMARCK THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE WINDS DIMINISHING AFTER 04Z
AND SHOWERS ENDING BY MORNING. BREEZY WEDNESDAY BUT NOT SHOULD
REMAIN BELOW WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA. PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY
WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 253 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

WEDNESDAY NIGHT WINDS WILL FINALLY DIMINISH AS THE LOW EXITS THE
REGION.

A TRANSITION TO NORTHWEST FLOW WILL OCCUR WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL
BRING COOLER AND DRYER CONDITIONS TO THE REGION THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK. WARMER TEMPERATURES AND CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS RETURN
THIS WEEKEND AS THE JET STREAM SHIFTS SOUTH AGAIN AND SEVERAL FAST
MOVING UPPER LEVEL WAVES PROPAGATE THROUGH.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1237 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

GUSTY WEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE FOR KMOT/KBIS/KJMS THROUGH 00Z
THURSDAY. EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS AT/NEAR 30 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO
45 MPH. LOW VFR CIGS AT KMOT WITH -SHRA UNTIL 09Z WEDNESDAY...THEN
GRADUAL CLEARING. VFR CIGS/VSBYS REST OF THE AERODROMES THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR NDZ002>005-010>013-
019>023-025-034>037.

&&

$$

UPDATE...KS
SHORT TERM...WAA
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...KS



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