Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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000
FXUS63 KBIS 282338
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
638 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 633 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

DID ADD AREAS OF SMOKE TO THE FORECAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
EVENING INTO SATURDAY GIVEN SATELLITE AND SURFACE OBSERVATION
TRENDS THROUGH 23 UTC. OTHERWISE...THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)

ISSUED AT 345 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

MAIN CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE FIRE WEATHER POTENTIAL OVER
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA FOR SATURDAY. AFTER A QUIET NIGHT TONIGHT A
VERY WARM AIRMASS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE 90S TO
NEAR 100 ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA SATURDAY. MINIMUM RELATIVE
HUMIDITY COULD FALL AS LOW AS 15 PERCENT. A FIRE WEATHER WATCH HAS
BEEN ISSUED FOR WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA...WEST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER
UP TO LAKE SAKAKAWEA AND GENERALLY WEST OF HIGHWAY 83 NORTH OF
LAKE SAKAKAWEA.

OTHERWISE...A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WAS THE FOCUS FOR A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTHEAST
ND. AS THIS TROUGH SLIDES SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM MAY YET BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE JAMES RIVER
VALLEY INTO THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE WILL KEEP A MENTION OF SMOKE
IN TONIGHT MOST OF WEST AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THE SMOKE HAS
BEEN MAINLY ALOFT BUT SKIES ARE QUITE COVERED WITH IT AND THERE
CONTINUES TO BE A SCENT OF IT AT THE SURFACE.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)

ISSUED AT 345 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

WARM TEMPERATURES AND PERIODIC THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL HIGHLIGHT
THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD NEXT WEEK.

WESTERN CONUS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY INTO THE CENTRAL U.S
OVER THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...THEN TRANSLATE TO THE EASTERN CONUS NEXT
WEEK PUTTING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH
THE WORK WEEK. THE UPPER RIDGE THIS WEEKEND WILL BRING WELL ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND LIMITED PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO WESTERN
AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH SUNDAY DAYTIME.

ON SUNDAY WE ARE EXPECTING SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES IN THE
NORTHWEST. THE THERMAL RIDGE SHIFTS INTO CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA...THUS MINOT AND BISMARCK COULD SEE TEMPERATURES
APPROACHING RECORDS ONCE AGAIN FOR SUNDAY...BUT MUCH WILL DEPEND
ON THE TIMING OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL ENTER THE FORECAST SUNDAY NIGHT WITH
ENERGY ALOFT AND THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT/SFC BOUNDARY
MOVING SLOWLY SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH NORTH DAKOTA...COOLING
TEMPERATURES BACK DOWN INTO THE 80S FOR MONDAY.

BROAD SOUTHWEST UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL THEN PERSIST THROUGH NEXT
WEEK. NO MAJOR SYSTEMS DEPICTED...BUT WE CAN EXPECT DAILY ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WITH ANY EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE
WHICH TRAVELS THROUGH THE FLOW ALOFT COUPLED WITH ANY ASSOCIATED
BOUNDARY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 633 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

MVFR VISIBILITY IN SMOKE FROM NORTHWEST U.S. FIRES ARE POSSIBLE
AT KDIK/KISN/KBIS/KMOT THIS EVENING INTO SATURDAY MORNING. SMOKE
MAY BE DENSE ENOUGH TO DROP VISIBILITY TO IFR AT KDIK AND KISN
TONIGHT. PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE IN THE KJMS VICINITY LATE TONIGHT
INTO SATURDAY MORNING.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING FOR NDZ001-002-009>011-017>021-031>034-040>045.

&&

$$

UPDATE...AYD
SHORT TERM...WAA
LONG TERM...NH
AVIATION...AYD


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