Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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FXUS63 KBIS 170442

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
1142 PM CDT Mon Oct 16 2017

Issued at 1142 PM CDT Mon Oct 16 2017

Latest satellite imagery loop and surface observations continue to
indicate a mainly clear sky for western/central ND. Current low
temperatures remain reasonable, and will not make any adjustments
from previous forecast. Soundings and model data show low level
warm air advection continuing through the night just above the
surface and through 850mb. This will result in a warm Tuesday
afternoon as mixing ensues. Forecast is on target.

UPDATE Issued at 929 PM CDT Mon Oct 16 2017

Once again, with clear skies and light winds, temperatures are
falling quickly this evening. Even though we begin to see modest
warm advection overnight, we can still expect temperatures to drop
lower than our current forecast. Because of the warm advection,
did not go quite as low as a blend of MOS based guidance, but
close. Expect some area will drop below, and with increasing flow
aloft, some of our windier areas will be warmer than currently
forecast. The general trend was lower though. Otherwise no changes
to the going forecast.

UPDATE Issued at 551 PM CDT Mon Oct 16 2017

No updates needed for the early evening. Only a few cirrus clouds
streaming southeast across the forecast area. Gusty west to
northwest winds will diminish early this evening.


.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 148 PM CDT Mon Oct 16 2017

Well above normal temperatures and near critical fire weather
conditions Tuesday highlight the short term forecast.

Western and central North Dakota is forecast to be in the large
warm sector of a surface low across central Saskatchewan on
Tuesday. Favorable southwesterly surface winds and 850 mb mean
temperatures at their 90th percentiles on the 00 UTC NAEFS support
widespread highs in the mid to upper 70s on Tuesday. This is
above the 12 UTC global consensus. See the Fire Weather discussion
below for the potential for near critical conditions Tuesday
afternoon southwest.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 134 PM CDT Mon Oct 16 2017

Strong winds Tuesday night into Wednesday, and well above average
temperatures again Thursday and Friday highlight the extended

The 12 UTC global suites are in agreement on a strong cold front
to propagate across western and central North Dakota Tuesday
night. Strong isallobaric forcing, and steepening post-frontal
lapse rates even during the night in cold air advection support
the potential for strong winds developing across the west late
Tuesday night and spreading into central North Dakota by early
Wednesday morning. There are some differences on the overall
strength of the windfield at the top of the mixed layer, however,
advisory level wind gusts above 45 mph are possible. Strong post
frontal winds may continue into much of the day on Wednesday and
pose a potential fire weather threat. See the Fire Weather
discussion below for details.

An upper level ridge is forecast to build across the Northern
Plains and Upper Midwest Thursday into Friday. An anomalously
warm airmass characterized by 850 mb mean temperatures between
their 90-99th percentiles for the period are forecast by the 00
UTC NAEFS. Thus, raised temperatures above the consensus well into
the mid to upper 70s for Thursday and Friday.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
Issued at 1142 PM CDT Mon Oct 16 2017

SKC dominates this TAF period, however periods of low level wind
shear will affect all terminals. A weak warm front propagating
from west to east through mid Tuesday morning will result in
stronger westerly winds just above ground level. Low level wind
shear returns after 00z Wednesday as southwest winds aloft increase
in advance of a potent cold front which pushes into KISN at 06z


Issued at 148 PM CDT Mon Oct 16 2017

Near critical fire weather conditions are possible across
southwest North Dakota on Tuesday afternoon. Afternoon minimum
relative humidity between 13-17 percent with high temperatures in
the mid to upper 70s are forecast. Southwest winds sustained
around 15 to 20 mph with gusts to 30 mph are forecast. However,
fuels still have enough of a green component to likely deter
rapid, uncontrolled spread.

For Wednesday, while cooler conditions in the 50s and 60s are
forecast, strong northwest winds behind a cold front are expected.
Gusts of 30 to 40 mph are possible, potentially stronger across
the north central and James River Valley. Afternoon minimum
relative humidity between 20 to 25 percent is forecast.

Thursday and Friday will be warm with highs in the 70s for much of
western and central North Dakota. However, winds are not expected
to be strong. That said, fuels will continue to dry with these
warm temperatures. Another cold front with stronger northwest
winds may impact the area on Saturday.




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