Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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FXUS63 KBIS 250830

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
330 AM CDT Mon Sep 25 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 329 AM CDT Mon Sep 25 2017

Surface high pressure was over the border of western ND and
Montana. Meanwhile the main upper level trough was over the US
Rockies with the low center over western Wyoming. The models are
indicating some upper level impulses ejecting northeastward from
Colorado and eastern Wyoming, reaching southern ND before
daybreak. Regional radars depict showers and some thunderstorms
moving northward from central Wyoming, South Dakota, Nebraska,
southern Minnesota at 2 am cdt. The upper level energy impulses
continue moving northward today as the upper low lifts northeast
into eastern Montana this afternoon, and the western Dakotas
Monday night. Thus will keep the mention of spotty showers after
daybreak over parts of western and central North Dakota. Better
chances of showers tonight over eastern portions of central North
Dakota, namely from the James Valley into the Turtle Mountain
area, with more substantive upper level impulses arriving as the
low/trough lifts northeastward into the Dakotas.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 329 AM CDT Mon Sep 25 2017

By daybreak Tuesday the upper level longwave trough is forecast to
have lifted northeastward into the western Dakotas, and continue
lifting northeastward to western Ontario by Wednesday morning. Model
consensus keeps a chance of showers over central ND Tuesday morning,
with clearing from west to east. Continued cool with highs from the
50s central to lower 60s in the west.

As the longwave trough exits our area, the upper level flow becomes
northwesterly as a ridge builds over the west coast. A shortwave in
the upper flow dives southeast and grazes the northeast half of
North Dakota Wednesday night. Thus only a slight chance mention of
showers for mainly the Turtle Mountains Wednesday night.

Otherwise gradual warming for North Dakota as the western ridge
builds east across the Rockies with dry weather. We should see high
temperatures in the 60s - sometimes into the lower 70s - Wednesday
through Sunday. In general, overnight lows are expected to be in the
40s during this period, but there is a chance for a touch of frost
Tuesday night and again on Thursday night, with temperatures
dropping into the upper 30s Tuesday night in the southwest, and
Thursday night over parts of western and central North Dakota.

The next chance of showers looks to be Saturday night into Sunday.
The upper level ridge is forecast to move east across the Dakotas
Friday night, and the remnants of a cut-off low over the desert
southwest lifts northeast across the Dakotas Saturday night. This
will be followed by another transitory longwave trough moving east
across central North America Sunday/Monday.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
Issued at 1219 AM CDT Mon Sep 25 2017

The longwave trough over the Rockies this morning, with upper level
impulses moving in from the base of the trough reaching ND before
daybreak Monday should keep mostly cloudy skies across
the region through Monday night. The latest iterations of the short
term high res models indicate that KISN should remain VFR through
the taf period. VFR/MVFR ceilings over southern and north central ND
should become MVFR/IFR during the early morning hours, improving to
MVFR Monday afternoon. KMOT and KDIK may become VFR by late
afternoon. Models continue MVFR ceilings at KBIS/KJMS through Monday




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