Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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FXUS63 KBIS 142100
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
300 PM CST Sat Jan 14 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)

Issued at 300 PM CST Sat Jan 14 2017

Temperatures will be the main forecast challenge and highlight in
the short term period.

Currently, west-northwesterly flow aloft with a subtle mid level
trough over the region. Surface high pressure off to our southeast
maintaining a mostly clear sky and a southwesterly low level wind.
Temperatures have been slow to warm this afternoon thanks to
minimal atmospheric mixing despite sunshine and weak WAA. Already
sent a couple of updates lowering daytime highs today several
degrees.

Surface high pressure slowly moves southeast tonight with a weak
westerly low level flow. A clear sky coupled with our ample
snowpack should see temperatures below zero same places as this
morning. Mid-level WAA with 850mb temps near to above 0C but
doubtful any of this warmer air will reach the surface. For the
overnight low tonight I basically copied the low from this morning
and weighted it with a blend of the CONSRAW/Superblend (2 of the
models verifying well on average for MinT the past month).

Temperatures may again be a problem for Sunday as the inherited
forecast may be too warm. I`m not seeing a good mixing potential
so much of the WAA 2-5K FT AGL will likely not reach the surface.
Thus lowered daytime highs below guidance a tad. Midnight crew
tonight can take another look.


.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday)

Issued at 300 PM CST Sat Jan 14 2017

Moderating temperatures and dry conditions through the middle of
next week continue to highlight the extended forecast. Active
weather may return towards the end of next week.

Split flow aloft ends early next week. Upper level low ejecting
through the Central Plains merges with a northern stream S/WV
trough moving southeast out of Canada. Models have trended towards
more of an open wave with the northern stream feature with only a
subtle associated sfc trough depicted. Thus the wind potential
does not seem as great as before so stuck with a model blend for
Monday along with dry conditions. CAA also not as robust as
earlier advertised.

Broad ridging follows and will maintain dry conditions. Mild
Pacific air will surge westward into the Northern Plains with
robust WAA Tuesday-Thursday, brining a nice warming trend to west
and central ND. Forecast temperatures were increased slightly,
with highs still in the 30s to low 40s by Wed/Thu.

Both the GFS and EC continue to depict a long wave trough
amplifying over the western CONUS Thursday night, then chaos
ensues as models are all over the place with how this wave along
with embedded features evolve/track. It will be more active and
will be colder, just how active and how colder are the two main
uncertainties.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)

Issued at 1206 PM CST Sat Jan 14 2017

VFR conditions and a light southwest flow expected at all TAF sites
through the 18Z TAF period. Did have a brief period of patchy fog at
KBIS this morning. Expect the potential for patchy morning fog will
increase as we warm over the next few days and wind remains light.
Nothing to add at this time but something to monitor.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...NH
LONG TERM...NH
AVIATION...TWH



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