Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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FXUS63 KBIS 061948
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
248 PM CDT FRI MAY 6 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 238 PM CDT FRI MAY 6 2016

SMOKE FROM CANADIAN WILDFIRES HIGHLIGHTS THE SHORT TERM FORECAST
INTO TONIGHT.

VISIBLE SATELLITE TRENDS THROUGH 19 UTC SUGGEST SMOKE FROM
CANADIANWILDFIRES WILL INCREASE ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH A LONG FETCH OF
NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THE PROPAGATED
THROUGH THE AREA EARLIER TODAY. WILL MAINTAIN THE MENTION OF SMOKE
IN THE FORECAST THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH SOME VISIBILITY RESTRICTION
IN THE 4 TO 6 MILE RANGE POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE...A QUIET AND DRY
SATURDAY IS FAVORED BY THE 12 UTC GLOBAL SUITE WITH WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE IN PLACE.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 238 PM CDT FRI MAY 6 2016

RAINFALL CHANCES MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY HIGHLIGHT THE EXTENDED
FORECAST.

THE 12 UTC GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE SUITE ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT OF POTENTIAL PHASING OF THE NORTHERN STREAM WAVE AND THE
CENTRAL PLAINS UPPER LEVEL LOW ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. THIS WOULD MARK AN INCREASE IN PRECIPITATION CHANCES
ACROSS THE AREA...IN ADDITION TO MUCH COOLER WEATHER WHEN COMPARED
TO THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS. THEREAFTER...A LOW AMPLITUDE LONG WAVE
CENTRAL CONUS TROUGH IS FORECAST...WHICH WOULD CONTINUE THE
POTENTIAL TREND OF COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 238 PM CDT FRI MAY 6 2016

NORTHERLY GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 KTS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TODAY BEHIND A COLD FRONT. SMOKE
FROM CANADIAN WILDFIRES MAY CAUSE VISIBILITY TO FALL AT TIMES TO
MVFR THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

PJA


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