Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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385
FXUS63 KBIS 030236 CCA
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
936 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 930 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

THE ONGOING FORECAST FOR TONIGHT REMAINS ON TRACK AND BLENDED TO
OBSERVED TRENDS THROUGH 02 UTC WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 640 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

OTHER THAN TO BLEND TO OBSERVED TRENDS THROUGH 23 UTC...THE
ONGOING FORECAST FOR A QUIET EVENING AND OVERNIGHT REMAINS WELL ON
TRACK WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

COOL UPPER LOW MOVING THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY AFTERNOON WILL EXIT
THE AREA TONIGHT. SKIES WILL CLEAR WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER
30S TO LOWER 40S. TUESDAY A SHORTWAVE WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST INTO THE
MINNESOTA/WISCONSIN REGION. THE IMPACT FOR THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY
WILL BE A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT THAT WILL BRING GUSTY NORTH WINDS OF
20 TO 30 MPH TO THE WESTERN DEVILS LAKE AND THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY
REGIONS DURING TUESDAY AFTERNOON. RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL FALL INTO
THE LOWER 20 PERCENT RANGE. AT THIS TIME CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER IS
NOT EXPECTED FOR THE ALTHOUGH WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

THE MAIN FEATURE IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE THE LONGWAVE TROUGH
RIDGE PATTERN WITH THE H500 RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS TUESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY DRY
WEATHER WITH A WARMING TREND.

BY THE END OF THE WEEK THE H500 TROUGH OFF THE WEST COAST MOVES
INLAND AND CLOSES OFF...EVENTUALLY RESIDING OVER THE GREAT BASIN BY
SATURDAY AND PUTTING WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.
WHILE NOT PARTICULARLY FAVORABLE FOR ABUNDANT RAIN THIS PATTERN WILL
BRING THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE
DAY FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.

FOR TEMPERATURES...HIGHS WILL WARM INTO THE UPPER 60S AND 70S
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...THEN INTO THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. A RATHER FRACTURED SPLIT FLOW WILL PREVAIL OVER
THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM FLOW
BRINGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...WHICH
WILL COOL TEMPERATURES OFF INTO THE 60S FOR THE WEEK

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 930 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA FOR THE 00 UTC TAF CYCLE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT SOUTH FROM THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE
JAMES RIVER VALLEY DURING THE MORNING TUESDAY. NORTHERLY WINDS
BEHIND THE FRONT SUSTAINED AT 20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH WILL BE
COMMON ACROSS THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. MINIMUM
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL RANGE BETWEEN 20 AND 25 PERCENT AND WILL
COINCIDE WITH THESE WINDS OVER A SMALL PORTION OF THE JAMES RIVER
VALLEY. HOWEVER...THE TIME DURATION OF THREE CONSECUTIVE HOURS
WITH 20 MPH SUSTAINED WINDS AND MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES AT 20
PERCENT APPEAR UNLIKELY AT THIS TIME. WITH INSUFFICIENT DURATION
AND SMALL AREAL COVERAGE...WOULD NOT ANTICIPATE ANY HIGHLIGHTS
UNLESS THERE ARE CHANGES WITH FUTURE FORECASTS.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...AYD
SHORT TERM...WAA
LONG TERM...WAA
AVIATION...AYD
FIRE WEATHER...WAA



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