Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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FXUS63 KBIS 240444

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
1144 PM CDT SAT JUL 23 2016

Issued at 1144 PM CDT Sat Jul 23 2016

Current forecast of a dry night remains on track, however, will
continue to monitor a shortwave in south central Montana which is
generating some showers/thunderstorms near Billings, MT. Current
CAM`s push the threat of precipitation close to our southwestern
border between 09z-12z Sunday, but keep the activity confined to
central South Dakota through most of the day Sunday. This leaves
our forecast area in a dry/northwest flow.

UPDATE Issued at 930 PM CDT Sat Jul 23 2016

Quiet weather continues tonight in the wake of frontal boundary. A
pleasant night is on tap with drier conditions.

UPDATE Issued at 623 PM CDT Sat Jul 23 2016

Some clouds linger over eastern portions of the area ahead of
advancing frontal boundary. Behind the front, clouds have
decreased with dewpoints dropping which should lead to a pleasant
evening. For early evening update only change was to increase cloud
cover a bit ahead of the progressing front.


.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 117 PM CDT Sat Jul 23 2016

Although we remain quite moist and moderately unstable over
eastern portions of central ND early this afternoon, our threat of
convection continues to diminish. Surface low pressure is situated
over central South dakota with a trough into northeast North
Dakota, and also north northwest into far southeast Saskatchewan.
This secondary trough/front will bring significantly drier from
western into central ND this afternoon/evening. Ahead of this,
over the central portion of the state we do remain slightly to
moderately unstable, but our directional shear profile is a little
messy and lapse rates struggle to increase. Also strong thermal
ridging still exists over the southern James River Valley which is
likely impeding convection. The last few runs of the EXP- HRRR
develop isolated convection over eastern portions of central ND
but each consecutive run gets pushed back an hour or so and look
more and more meager.

Tonight should be quiet with drier air spreading east and making
for a pleasant Sunday. Although many locales have had quite a bit
of rain over the past 24 hours, think there should be enough of a
surface gradient to inhibit fog development. Sunday highs will
range from the mid 70s northeast to mid 80s southwest. It may be a
little breezy from the north central into eastern ND but overall a
nice day.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday)
Issued at 117 PM CDT Sat Jul 23 2016

The upper level trough that brought our Friday night and Saturday
morning severe weather and then our cooler and drier Sunday will
exit the region Sunday night with northwest flow aloft and surface
high pressure over the area.

High pressure slides east and we transition to a more quasi-zonal
flow on Monday with many impulses moving through the northern
plains through the entire work week. Deterministic GFS/ECMWF
models show a similar pattern of mainly daily thunderstorm
chances through Friday with drier conditions finally arriving on
Saturday. At this time the best threat for severe storms may be
mid Week (Tue-Wed). Monday remains warm but we are just getting
into the return moisture flow, especially early in the Day. By
Thursday our upper flow does shift a little more northwest and
our temperatures cool from the 80s early in the week, into the 70s
by late week. This may inhibit daytime instability by Thursday and
Friday. Will have to wait to sort the details but in general it
looks like we will see daily thunderstorm chances through the work


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)
Issued at 1144 PM CDT Sat Jul 23 2016

Vfr cigs/vsbys through the TAF Period with a few/sct mid and high
level clouds.


.BIS Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


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