Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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FXUS63 KBIS 210706

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
106 AM CST Tue Feb 21 2017


Issued at 105 AM CST Tue Feb 21 2017

Embedded S/WV moving quickly east along the International Border
with its associated surface trough over western ND. These features
are generating a BKN-OVC cloud deck across most of western and
central North Dakota along with areas of light precipitation ahead
of the sfc trough. Precip type mainly liquid right now but expect
some sleet and/or freezing rain as this band of echos moves into
colder temperatures over my northeast. Main update was to speed up
the west to east progression of POPs based on latest radar trends
and high res models. Should see clouds scattering out in the next
hour or two west central and northwest with this trend spreading
quickly eastward through 12Z before we cloud up again during the
daytime as the next S/WV approaches from the west.

UPDATE Issued at 935 PM CST Mon Feb 20 2017

Some light echos showing up on radar to the west, but dont expect
much if any precipiation is reaching the ground. Will keep
precipitation chances on the lower side through the night, a
little higher far north were atmosphere is more saturated.

UPDATE Issued at 635 PM CST Mon Feb 20 2017

Have added a little fog over portions of north central North
Dakota as regional satellite and webcams show it remaining. Will
carry it through this evening but expect it to dissipate later
tonight as some light precipitation approaches. Only other change
was to cloud cover as many parts of western and central North
Dakota have cleared out, though clouds will push in from the west


.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 325 PM CST Mon Feb 20 2017

Forecast highlights in the short term period will be chances for
a mix of light rain, freezing rain or sleet tonight across the
northwest and north central.

Currently, a strong mid/upper level shortwave trough extended from
northern Alberta southeastward across Saskatchewan, to the Turtle
Mountains and James Valley. The associated surface trough was just
east of the Red River Valley. The rainfall associated with this
system was over the eastern quarter of the state, with mostly sunny
skies across western ND. Temperatures ranged from the upper 50s in
the snow-free areas of the southwest to the 30s in the Turtle
Mountains and James Valley.

Tonight a weaker shortwave in the zonal flow aloft is forecast to
move eastward along the International Border, and will bring a
chance of light precipitation across northwestern and north central
ND. Thermal profiles suggest a mix of light freezing rain, rain, or
possibly sleet. Probabilities are higher along the Canadian border,
but less than a 50% chance over any locale. Lows tonight should
range from the upper 20s along the Canadian border to the mid 30s
across the southwest.

Another mild day Tuesday with highs expected to range from the upper
30s far north to around 60 in the snow-free areas of the southwest.
Another shortwave in the flow aloft will bring a slight chance of
light rain to parts of western ND Tuesday afternoon.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 325 PM CST Mon Feb 20 2017

An active weather pattern will be in place through the long term
period, though not seeing any major storm systems for western and
central ND. Temperatures will trend colder beginning Wednesday.

Broad low pressure across Canada begins the long term with a digging
trough off the west coast and zonal flow across the Northern Plains.
Embedded shortwaves in the flow will bring chances of
light rain or light snow Tuesday night mainly north of I-94, and
chances of rain or snow across all of western and central ND on
Wednesday/Wednesday night. Only light snow accumulations are
expected, with less than an inch forecast. Cold air filtering in
from Canada will make for a noticeably colder day Wednesday...with
highs from the lower 30s north to mid 40s in the far southwest.

By Thursday the west coast trough will have deepened and dug farther
south into the 4-corners area, with colder air from Canada
continuing to sag farther south into ND. A storm system develops in
over the southern Plains Thursday and lifts northeast into the upper
Mississippi Valley Friday. Most of the energy and precipitation with
this system is forecast to remain to the south and east of our area,
but the southwest part of ND will see a chance of light snow with
upslope northeasterly flow behind a secondary cold front. We are
looking at highs from the mid 20s Turtle Mountains to the lower 30s
far south...which is very close to average high temperatures for
this time of year.

Continued reinforcing shots of colder air Friday and into the
weekend bring average to slightly below average temperatures to our
area. Look for morning low temperatures Friday through the weekend
from mainly the teens to single digits above zero...with highs
mainly from 20F to 30F. No significant precipitation expected during
this time period.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)

Issued at 105 AM CST Tue Feb 21 2017

BKN-OVC cloud deck with cigs from 7K - 11K FT AGL will move east
across the state over the next few hours. Some light rain,
freezing rain, or sleet will be possible over north central and
northeastern areas overnight, though KMOT should remain -RA with
mild temperatures. VFR conditions are expected Tuesday morning
after 12Z followed by increasing clouds thereafter. Large area of
MVFR-IFR cigs are then projected to surge south into the region
tonight along with rain and snow.





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