Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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FXUS63 KBIS 100043

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
643 PM CST Fri Dec 9 2016

Issued at 628 PM CST Fri Dec 9 2016

Arctic high pressure centered near Minot this Friday evening will
drift southeast to western Minnesota by Saturday morning. Lee side
cyclogenesis across the high plains of Montana and Wyoming tonight
will then appear as low pressure which tracks across South Dakota
during the day Saturday into Saturday night. This will spread
light snow across North Dakota from west to east on Saturday.

The high pressure are will also keep skies clear over all but far
western North Dakota this evening allowing temperatures to fall
into the mid 20s below zero north central to 10 to 20 below
elsewhere. This, combined with 5 to 10 mph winds should easily send
the wind chills to 25 to 40 below tonight. Current forecast looks
like its trending ok.


.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday night)
Issued at 318 PM CST Fri Dec 9 2016

Dangerous wind chills tonight and Saturday morning, along with some
widespread light snowfall Saturday and Saturday night are the main
concerns in the short term forecast. A wind chill advisory will
again be needed for tonight through Saturday morning.

Arctic high pressure was centered over southern Saskatchewan, with
its axis extending southeastward across ND into eastern SD and
southern MN. Current temperatures remain below zero in most areas of
western and central ND. Visible sat pics show lake effect clouds
forming and moving south of the Lake across parts of Mercer, Oliver,
and Morton counties with a northerly wind close to the surface
taking the clouds south from the lake.

Regarding temperatures and wind chills:
Tonight the arctic high center is forecast to move southeast and
settle over central and eastern ND by late tonight/daybreak Saturday
morning. Expecting overnight lows from 20 to 25 below over north
central ND into the northern James River Valley. Increasing cloud
cover is expected overnight in the southwest as the next system
develops over the Rockies and approaches the Dakotas. Thus looking
at lows from 10 to 15 below mainly south and west of the Missouri
River. Light winds near the high center and southeast winds of 5 to
10 mph developing in the southwest will still produce wind chill
values in the 25 to 40 below zero range. Therefore will issue a wind
chill advisory for tonight through Saturday morning for all of
western and central ND.

Regarding snowfall potential:
A broad upper level open wave moves east across the Rockies today
and tonight, with the main trough axis moving east across the
Dakotas and central plains states late Saturday night into Sunday
morning. At the surface - a large surface low develops over the
central Rockies and emerging into the central plains around
Colorado/Wyoming/Nebraska by Saturday evening...then developing into
the Kansas/Oklahoma area by Sunday morning.

North Dakota should be on the northern and western edge of the
snowfall impact of this system...with the main impact affecting
southern Minnesota/Iowa and into the Great Lakes. The latest
indications are for light snow to begin over western ND around
daybreak Saturday morning, then spreading east across the state
Saturday and Saturday night, and lingering in the Turtle Mountains
and James Valley Sunday morning. Snowfall totals of 1 to 3 inches
are forecast for western and central ND. The most favored area for 2-
3 inches of snowfall extends in a swath from Williston/Watford City
to Minot/Bismarck to Rugby/Jamestown/Oakes.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 318 PM CST Fri Dec 9 2016

Frigid temperatures look to be the main story next week with small
snow chances from time to time.

The next arctic cold front moves through ND late Sunday night
through Monday. Brisk winds and steady temperatures near or below
zero will bring another day of dangerous wind chills to our area
Monday through Tuesday morning. Yet another reinforcing shot of
arctic air is forecast Tuesday night and Wednesday, then again
Thursday/Friday. Look for overnight lows below zero each night.
Sunday high temperatures are expected to range from zero to 15
above...but Monday through Friday highs look to range from 5 below
to 5 above zero.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening)
Issued at 628 PM CST Fri Dec 9 2016

Arctic high pressure will maintain vfr conditions across the
region tonight. Then MVFR conditions due to ceilings and snow will
develop from west to east on Saturday.

Some uncertainty for KBIS tonight as lake effect clouds (MVFR/IFR)
originating from Lake Sakakawea have been showing up to the west
of Bismarck from Hazen to Glen Ullin. Current thinking is this
area will remain to the west but some possibility it could show
up at KBIS tonight.


Wind Chill Advisory until noon CST /11 AM MST/ Saturday for



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