Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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FXUS63 KBIS 160632

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
1232 AM CST Fri Feb 16 2018

Issued at 1229 AM CST Fri Feb 16 2018

Little change with this update outside of observed trends through
06 UTC. Will continue to evaluate the snowfall potential Saturday
night into Sunday, as widespread light to moderate accumulations
are possible generally south of US Highway 2.

UPDATE Issued at 938 PM CST Thu Feb 15 2018

We ended up lowering min temperatures most areas a few degrees.
Currently, surface high pressure is situated over southeast
Montana into western South Dakota. Even with the winds,
temperatures have fallen to 5 to 10 below across portions of the
north and zero to 5 below south. However, areas such as Minot
where winds are a little higher, 9 PM temperatures remain above
zero. The surface high will continue to drop south overnight and
warm advection will kick in across the west and eventually central
ND toward morning. Overall a tough temperature forecast but in
general, dropping everyone a little seemed reasonable.

Otherwise no significant changes. With the lowering of
temperatures there were some areas north that were flirting with
the -25F criteria for wind chill advisory, but elected not to
issue with steady or slightly diminishing winds and rising
temperatures late tonight. But we will continue the current
advisory over the far north central.

UPDATE Issued at 619 PM CST Thu Feb 15 2018

Except for a stray flake or two lingering over the southern James
River Valley, light snow has ended across the forecast area. For
the rest of the night expect clearing skies, diminishing winds and
falling temperatures. Evening temperatures trend look reasonable
with a little slower drop than usual with the current winds but
will see how things go later this evening as winds do begin to
subside. Otherwise no changes from the going forecast.


.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 241 PM CST Thu Feb 15 2018

Current surface analysis places low to the south of James Bay
with front sweeping towards the central plains. High pressure
continues to settle into the northern plains behind the front.
Upper level analysis places trough stretching from Hudson Bay
sweeping through the northern plains and on into the Great Basin.
Snow over the area is gradually tapering off as the trough works
its way through, with some light activity remaining over southern
portions of the area.

For the rest of this afternoon into tonight, cold high pressure
continues to settle into the area with snow coming to an end
through the afternoon. Overnight lows below zero expected across
the area with the coldest temperatures expected over far north
central into northeast North Dakota. Frigid wind chills expected
over this area so have gone ahead and issued a wind chill advisory
for Rolette and Pierce Counties.

On Friday, high settles off to the southeast with winds turning
southwest and increasing over the area. This will bring warmer
temperatures with readings close to normal. A weak wave zips
through the area which may bring some light snow mainly to
southwestern areas late Friday afternoon into Friday evening.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 241 PM CST Thu Feb 15 2018

A more potent shortwave moves into the Pacific Northwest on
Saturday, and moves across the Rockies and Dakotas Saturday night
and Sunday before exiting to Minnesota. In response, a surface low
develops over Wyoming/Colorado/South Dakota, and sets up an area of
precipitation in the form of light snow across Montana/North Dakota
Saturday night...and North Dakota and Minnesota on Sunday. As of
now, the global model consensus favors southern and central
portions of North Dakota for the main band of precipitation and
have been gradually increasing some on snow amounts. Will have to
keep an eye on if this trend continues.

Frigid airmass then settles into the area for the start of the
upcoming week and sticks around going into mid-week.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
Issued at 1229 AM CST Fri Feb 16 2018

Surface high pressure will keep winds light and skies generally
clear for the first part of the forecast period. A warm front will
drift across the state from west to east Friday afternoon. This
boundary will bring in high ceilings and breezy winds from the
southwest. Highest winds will likely be seen over KMOT and KDIK. VFR
conditions are expected throughout the period.


Wind Chill Advisory until 9 AM CST this morning for NDZ005-013.



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