Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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FXUS63 KBIS 270544

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
1244 AM CDT Thu Apr 27 2017

Issued at 1244 AM CDT Thu Apr 27 2017

We slightly refined the cloud cover forecast through 18 UTC with
this update using the latest gridded LAMP guidance, which appears
to be well-capturing the stratus which has its west edge close to
a Towner-Washburn-New Salem-Carson line at this hour. The primary
uncertainty with this stratus is how far west it will ultimately
be able to build westward overnight. Most guidance suggests only
fragments of stratus will work into western ND by morning, but we
will be monitoring later model cycles and satellite trends during
the next few hours to see how this progresses. Little tangible
change was made to the remainder of the forecast elements.

UPDATE Issued at 929 PM CDT Wed Apr 26 2017

Now that it is past sundown the stratus across the south central
is visually moving west in a low level east to northeast flow.
Satellite loops picking up this trend as well. There is some
clearing north central. Current forecast looks good.

UPDATE Issued at 642 PM CDT Wed Apr 26 2017

Will expire the winter weather advisory with this forecast update.
The snow is dwindling and the CAM models agree in only a residual
amount the rest of the evening. Clouds will however persist with a
low level northeast flow maintaining clouds over the James river
valley and will likely spread clouds further west into south
central North Dakota through tonight. With this in mind felt the
minimum temperatures are a bit too pessimistic James River Valley
and raised them into the mid/upper 20s.


.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 215 PM CDT Wed Apr 26 2017

Mid-afternoon radar mosaic shows the main axis of precipitation
extending from parts of western Minnesota into southeast North
Dakota and northeast South Dakota. Global and short term hi-
resolution models all generally agree the snow should gradually
diminish this afternoon, ending this evening. The Winter Weather
Advisory still looks good (expiring at 7 pm central time) with
brief visibility reductions possible and additional accumulations
of an inch or two.

A dry day is expected for Thursday with highs in the 40s to near

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 215 PM CDT Wed Apr 26 2017

The long term period will start off fairly quiet with the main
story becoming the chances of precipitation towards Sunday night
and Monday. Temperatures will start off a little on the cool side
of normal, but should return to near normal this weekend. For
Sunday night and Monday, one wave will pass to our south, while
another northern stream wave moves across the Northern Plains.
This will increase rain chances for Sunday night into Monday
across the forecast area. Thermal profiles generally support rain
through most of that period.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night)
Issued at 1244 AM CDT Thu Apr 27 2017

MVFR stratus in central ND is slowly spreading westward on light
east-northeast winds and will at the very least maintain itself at
KBIS and KJMS through the night. There`s a chance it will spread
into the KDIK terminal late tonight or early Thursday morning, but
confidence in that is low. Meanwhile, brief IFR ceilings may occur
in south central ND and the James River valley through 15 UTC. The
stratus deck is forecast to rise and eventually dissipate by late
Thursday morning at KBIS, and by late afternoon at KJMS.




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