Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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000
FXUS63 KBIS 142021
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
321 PM CDT SUN SEP 14 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 258 PM CDT SUN SEP 14 2014

MAIN CONCERN TONIGHT WILL BE PATCHY FROST. SUNDAYS HIGH
TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN LIMITED DUE TO ABUNDANT CU FORMATION.
SUNDAY AFTERNOONS CU IS CLEARLY BOUNDED EAST AND NORTH OF THE H300
JET. THE JET WILL MOVE EAST TONIGHT WILL BE OVER MINNESOTA MONDAY.
SOME JET RELATED CLOUDS OVER EASTERN MONTANA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH
DAKOTA WILL PERSIST TONIGHT AND COULD COMPLICATE THE MIN
TEMPERATURE FORECAST. HOWEVER BELIEVE MIN TEMPS N LOWER TO MID 30S
LOOK QUITE REASONABLE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND WILL GO WITH
A FROST ADVISORY ACROSS THE REGION.

ALSO KEPT ISOLATED SPRINKLES NORTHEAST THROUGH EARLY EVENING.

ON MONDAY...WITH THE H300 JET EAST OF THE REGION SHOULD SEE QUITE
A BIT OF SUNSHINE WITH MUCH LESS CU. HIGHS IN THE 60S.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 258 PM CDT SUN SEP 14 2014

TRANQUIL WEATHER ON TRACK MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. NORTHWEST
FLOW SLACKENS AS AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
APPROACHES NORTH DAKOTA DURING THIS PERIOD. THIS WILL PRODUCE PLENTY
OF SUNSHINE WITH GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS ALONG WITH A GRADUAL WARMING
TREND. WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT REPRESENTS A PERIOD WITH
A FEW MID LEVEL SHORTWAVES PROPAGATING THROUGH FLATTENING THE RIDGE.
THE GFS/ECMWF/CANADIAN GEM MODEL ALL SHOW AN INITIAL SHORTWAVE
RESULTING IN SOME SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE
ALL BLEND IS CURRENTLY VOID OF ANY POPS WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BUT THIS
WILL LIKELY CHANGE PROVIDING THIS EVENINGS 00Z MODEL RUN CONTINUES
WITH THE SAME OUTCOME. UNTIL A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH FRIDAY
EVENING/NIGHT...EXPECT A SLIGHT CHC/CHC OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. THE LATEST TREND FOR SATURDAY IS FOR
A DRIER DAY.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD...EXPECT AFTERNOON HIGHS MAINLY
REMAINING IN THE 70S...EXCEPT HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S WEST WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL MODERATE FROM THE UPPER 30S/LOWER
40S TUESDAY MORNING...INTO THE 50S THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 258 PM CDT SUN SEP 14 2014

SHALLOW INSTABILITY WILL KEEP BROKEN TO OVERCAST CEILINGS BETWEEN
3 AND 5 THOUSAND AGL FROM KMOT-KBIS-KJMS. CLOUDS WILL DIMINSH
RAPIDLY AFTER SUNSET. OTHERWISE VFR WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
DRIFING ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND MONDAY.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FROST ADVISORY FROM 3 AM CDT /2 AM MDT/ TO 9 AM CDT /8 AM MDT/
MONDAY FOR NDZ001>005-009>013-017>023-025-031>037-040>048-050-
051.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...WAA
LONG TERM...KS
AVIATION...WAA





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