Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS63 KBIS 091557
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
957 AM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 942 AM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

FOR THIS UPDATE...REMOVED ANY MENTION OF FREEZING DURING THE DAY
TODAY. MODELS ARE OVER FORECASTING PRECIPITATION THIS MORNING AS
RADAR AND SATELLITE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE VERY LITTLE ACTIVITY
OVER NORTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND UPSTREAM IN CANADA.
FURTHERMORE...FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND HIGH-RES SHORT-TERM MODELS
DELAY THE WARM AIR ALOFT INTRUSION UNTIL LATER TONIGHT...KEEPING
THE ATMOSPHERE BELOW FREEZING ABOVE THE SURFACE. THIS SHOULD
ELIMINATE THE CHANCE FOR FREEZING RAIN AND FAVOR SIMPLY A
RAIN/SNOW MIX OR TRANSITION BASED SOLELY ON SURFACE TEMPERATURES.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 632 AM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

NO CHANGE WITH THIS UPDATE OTHER THAN TO BLEND TO OBSERVED TRENDS
THROUGH 12 UTC. THE 09 THROUGH 11 UTC RAP/HRRR ITERATIONS AND 06
UTC NAM/GFS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT LIGHT SNOW MIXING WITH RAIN
SOUTHWEST AND LIGHT FREEZING RAIN FAR NORTHWEST LATE THIS MORNING
AND INTO THE AFTERNOON. THE CURRENT BAND OF ECHOES ON THE
REGIONAL RADAR CENTRAL THIS MORNING IS ASSOCIATED WITH MID LEVEL
CLOUD COVER WITH NO PRECIPITATION OBSERVED ON WEBCAMS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 230 AM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

SHORT TERM HIGHLIGHTS INCLUDE A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW/RAIN WEST
TODAY...WITH LIGHT SNOW BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD TONIGHT ACROSS
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THE HIGHEST SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS WILL
OCCUR IN NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. FOR THE REST OF CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA...ANTICIPATE MOSTLY LIGHT SNOW WITH A NARROW AREA OF LIGHT
FREEZING RAIN. WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE THE LIGHT FREEZING RAIN
IN THE HWO/HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NOW AND ADJUSTMENTS CAN
BE MADE LATER TODAY IF FORECAST CONDITIONS LOOK DIFFERENT.

SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS DETAIL A CLOUDY SKY FOR
ALL BUT THE SOUTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY EARLY THIS MORNING. HOWEVER
CLOUDS WILL FILL IN THIS MORNING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. A CLOUDY SKY
WILL DOMINATE THE SHORT TERM PERIOD...AS A STATIONARY FRONT
SEPARATES WARMER TEMPERATURES IN THE WEST FROM COLDER AIR IN THE
EAST. A DISTINCT CONTRAST IN AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
OCCUR TODAY...WITH TEENS ACROSS THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS TO LOWER 40S
SOUTHWEST.

THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWS
NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUING INTO NORTH DAKOTA WITH AN UPPER RIDGE
CENTERED ACROSS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. PACIFIC SHORTWAVES RIDING UP
AND OVER THE RIDGE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE NORTHWEST FLOW WILL
INTERACT WITH THE STATIONARY FRONTAL SYSTEM MENTIONED ABOVE. THIS
IS CURRENTLY LOCATED FROM WESTERN SASKATCHEWAN INTO THE WESTERN
DAKOTAS. OUR NEXT SHORTWAVE OF INTEREST IS CURRENTLY LOCATED IN
CENTRAL ALBERTA. AS IT APPROACHES NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA THIS
MORNING AND THEN CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA LATER THIS AFTERNOON...THE
H850-H3 OMEGA FIELD WILL INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST. WARM AIR
ADVECTION AND DIFFERENTIAL POSITIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION WILL
PRODUCE THE VERTICAL MOTION NEEDED TO GENERATE A CHANCE OF LIGHT
SNOW/RAIN WEST TODAY...SHIFTING INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS
EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT. A SURFACE LOW SLIDING SOUTHEAST ALONG THE
FRONT WILL ENHANCE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND PRODUCE HIGHER POPS
AND SNOW AMOUNTS LATER TONIGHT IN NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA AND
ALSO ACROSS THE REST OF CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. TOTAL SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTH
CENTRAL TONIGHT...WITH AROUND 1 INCH FOR THE REMAINDER OF CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA. MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL FALL IN THE
COLD/SATURATED SECTOR OF THE STATIONARY FRONT...WITH A NARROW AREA
OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN IN THE WARM SECTOR TUESDAY NIGHT. THE
NAM/GFS BUFKIT SOUNDINGS PORTRAY A DRY LAYER ALOFT WITH NEAR
SATURATED CONDITIONS IN THE SUPERCOOLED WATER DROPLET REGIME.
OMEGA LOOKS SUFFICIENT TO GENERATE SOME LIGHT FREEZING RAIN...BUT
THINKING IS THE STRONGEST FORCING WILL BE ALONG AND EAST OF THE
STATIONARY FRONT RESULTING IN SNOW AS THE DOMINANT PRECIPITATION
TYPE.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 230 AM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

SNOW AND POSSIBLY LIGHT FREEZING RAIN WEDNESDAY MORNING AND A COOL
DOWN THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY HIGHLIGHT THE EXTENDED FORECAST.

PRECIPITATION FROM THE SHORT TERM TUESDAY NIGHT IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA IN
ASSOCIATION WITH A WEAK CLIPPER SYSTEM INTERACTING WITH THE
LOW LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE. ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE BAND
FROM BOWBELLS THROUGH BISMARCK AND LINTON...FREEZING RAIN/DRIZZLE
MAY BE POSSIBLE WITH A WARM LAYER ALOFT AROUND +2 TO +3 C AND A
POTENTIAL LOSS OF ICE CRYSTALS IN THE COLUMN. HOWEVER...OVERALL
QPF WEDNESDAY MORNING ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE BAND IS FORECAST
TO BE VERY LIGHT ON THE 00 UTC GUIDANCE CONSENSUS. THUS...WILL
HIGHLIGHT FOR NOW ONLY IN THE HWO. FURTHER EAST...PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED TO BE ALL SNOW WEDNESDAY MORNING...WITH AROUND AN INCH OF
NEW ACCUMULATION.

THEREAFTER...WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA IS FORECAST TO
RESIDE ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF TWO ARCTIC HIGHS FORECAST TO
BUILD ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY. AT THIS
TIME THE CORE OF THE ARCTIC AIR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN EAST ACROSS
MINNESOTA AND THE GREAT LAKES. THE NEXT BEST CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION IS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. HOWEVER...TIMING
DIFFERENCES WITH THIS FEATURE ARE A BIT WIDE GIVEN THE WAVE STILL
WELL OFF SHORE OVER THE PACIFIC.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 632 AM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

MVFR CIGS AND MVFR/IFR VSBYS IN -SN AT KISN/KDIK 16Z-17Z TUESDAY
UNTIL 00Z WEDNESDAY. ELSEWHERE...MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED AT KMOT/KJMS
BY 18Z TODAY. -SN WILL NOT ARRIVE AT KBIS AND KMOT UNTIL 02Z-03Z
WEDNESDAY...AND EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF
PERIOD. CIGS AT KMOT WILL LOWER TO IFR BY 06Z WEDNESDAY. -FZRA IS
POSSIBLE AT KMOT AND KBIS TOWARD 12Z WEDNESDAY...BUT THERE IS MUCH
UNCERTAINTY AT THIS TIME FOR ANY MENTION IN THE FORECAST.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...AJ
SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...AYD
AVIATION...AYD



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.