Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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FXUS63 KBIS 011241
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
641 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 641 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

DID INCREASE POPS ACROSS THE WEST THIS MORNING WITH THIS FORECAST
UPDATE. LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES ARE BEING REPORTED AT MOST OBSERVATION
SITES UNDER THE BROKEN STRATUS THAT WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM IN
FROM SOUTHERN CANADA THIS MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 347 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

A FAIRLY NONDESCRIPT UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE CONTINUED TO TRAVERSE
SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES THIS MORNING. AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER AND LIGHT SNOW HAS DEVELOPED.
SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW IS APPEARING ON
RADAR...HOWEVER...PRECIPITATION IS HAVING A HARD TIME REACHING THE
GROUND WITH CLOUD HIGHER CLOUD BASES AND RELATIVELY DRY BOUNDARY
LAYER. THEREFORE...ONLY EXPECT FLURRIES OR BRIEF LIGHT SNOW ACROSS
THE NORTHWEST THIS MORNING. CLOUDS AND FLURRIES SHOULD PUSH
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...EVENTUALLY EXITING THE AREA
BY LATER AFTERNOON.

DESPITE A WEST...DOWNSLOPING WIND...TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN A LITTLE CHILLY WITH CLOUD COVER AND COLD AIR ADVECTION.
RETURN FLOW WILL KICK IN LATE TONIGHT AND BRING WARMER TEMPERATURE
INTO THE REGION MONDAY.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 347 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

AN ARCTIC AIRMASS TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY FOLLOWED BY WARMING
TEMPERATURES HIGHLIGHT THE EXTENDED FORECAST.

THE 00 UTC GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT ON AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT
PROPAGATING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS MONDAY EVENING AND NIGHT.
STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT WITH GUSTS OF
35-40 KTS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON TUESDAY AS THE
SURFACE HIGH BUILDS IN. THIS PRESENTS THE POTENTIAL FOR BLOWING
SNOW EXCEPT ACROSS THE BARE GROUND OF THE SOUTHWEST. WHILE A
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR BLOWING SNOW IS POSSIBLE...THE LACK OF
FALLING SNOW AND THE BEST ISALLOBARIC PUSH BEING LOCATED SOUTH OF
THE AREA DOES PLACE A LIMIT ON THE OVERALL THREAT. WIDESPREAD
DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS ARE LIKELY TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING AREA WIDE...AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING...ALBEIT MORE LOCALIZED ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL AND JAMES
RIVER VALLEY. THEREAFTER...THE LONGWAVE TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE
ARCTIC AIRMASS PROPAGATES INTO THE EASTERN CONUS THURSDAY
ONWARDS...LEADING TO A POTENTIAL RECOVERY TO NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 640 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

RATHER FRACTURED MVFR/IFR STRATUS DECKS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD
ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS MORNING AND INTO THE
AFTERNOON. LIGHT SNOW IS ALSO FALLING BENEATH MOST OF THE STRATUS
DECKS. GIVEN THE CLEAR SLOTS BETWEEN THE POCKETS OF STRATUS AND
SNOW...VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE THE MOST COMMON FLIGHT CATEGORY.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...AYD
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...AYD
AVIATION...AYD






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