Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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FXUS63 KBIS 271809

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
1209 PM CST Mon Feb 27 2017

Issued at 1053 AM CST Mon Feb 27 2017

Forecast looks good with categorical pops from Highway 200 to
just north of Highway 2. The latest NAM/GFS still show a decent
link between lower level frontogenesis forcing and synoptic scale
ascent into the afternoon before becoming decoupled. A couple
shortwaves per water vapor imagery loop stretched from southwest
ND into central ND. As these shortwaves shift northeast, expect
the light snow to wane from west to east this afternoon, which is
in line with the weakening forcing mentioned above. Thus far,
around one inch has been reported at Watford City and Killdeer.

UPDATE Issued at 842 AM CST Mon Feb 27 2017

Increased snow chances where snow continues to fall over a broad
swath of western and central North Dakota mainly along and north
of Highway 200. Models are running a little shy on the snow and
not picking it up too well, with the NAM Nest seeming to do the
best job with it. Will continue the high chances through the
morning with this system, gradually tapering off in the afternoon.
Updates have been sent.

UPDATE Issued at 613 AM CST Mon Feb 27 2017

Light snow moving into west central North Dakota as of 6 am and
current forecast depicts this well. Just updated current


.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 314 AM CST Mon Feb 27 2017

A narrow band of snow will spread across portions of central and
northern North Dakota today. Accumulating snow is possible between
highway 52 and Interstate 94. Amounts should range from about 2
in Watford City to about half an inch in Minot and Rugby.

Additional snow is possible tonight as a band develops across
southeast North Dakota, with an inch or less possible across
Dickey and LaMoure Counties.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 314 AM CST Mon Feb 27 2017

North Dakota will be in a baroclinic battle through the week.
Northern North Dakota will remain cool with readings in the teens
to low 20s, while southern North Dakota will see the upper 20s and
30s. Many fast moving waves will pass over North Dakota this week.
There is a daily chance for light snow. At this time nothing more
than a dusting or quick inch of snow is expected on any given day.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 1053 AM CST Mon Feb 27 2017

Widespread IFR conditions continue mainly over northern portions
of the area as snow moves through. Over southern locations, mainly
MVFR ceilings remain, but these will lower overnight with areas of
IFR by later tonight into Tuesday morning.




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