Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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FXUS63 KBIS 010535
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1235 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1234 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

AN AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES TO DISSIPATE ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. ONLY LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS REMAIN. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS IN EASTERN MONTANA CONTINUE TO TRACK EAST. THESE
COULD HOLD TOGETHER AND ENTER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA WITHIN THE NEXT
HOUR OR TWO. UPDATED THE FORECAST TO CAPTURE THE LATEST TRENDS
WITH NO MAJOR CHANGES NEEDED.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 935 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES TO PUSH EAST ACROSS CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA THIS EVENING. ALTHOUGH THIS LINE IS BEING SUPPORTED
BY AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE...IT SHOULD BEGIN TO LOSE STEAM WITHIN
THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS THE ENVIRONMENT STABILIZES. THE LATEST HRRR
SUPPORTS THIS CONCLUSION BY PROGGING THIS LINE FIZZLING OUT AROUND
06Z.

UPDATED THE FIRST PERIOD HOURLY POP FORECAST BASED ON CURRENT
RADAR OBS AND EXPECTED TRENDS. THE REMAINING WEATHER ELEMENTS ARE
IN GOOD SHAPE. THE UPDATED PRODUCTS WILL BE OUT SHORTLY.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 643 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

JUST ENOUGH INSTABILITY WAS PRESENT ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA
LATE THIS AFTERNOON TO GENERATE A THUNDERSTORM THAT PRODUCED A
REPORTED 60 MPH WIND GUST HALFWAY BETWEEN TRENTON AND WILLISTON.
AS OF 630 PM CDT...A NEW CELL PRODUCED 50 MPH WIND GUSTS NEAR
WATFORD CITY. ALL HAIL REPORTS HAVE BEEN PEA-SIZED OR LESS. THINK
THE SEVERE THREAT WILL BE DIMINISHING DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS
WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. WILL CONTINUE TO HANDLE THE
STRONGER STORMS WITH SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENTS. FOR NOW...WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS AND ADJUST THE FORECAST AS NEEDED. THE
UPDATED PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN SENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)

ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES LOW OVER THE NORTHERN RED RIVER
VALLEY. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS PLACES WEAK RIDGE NEAR THE GREAT
LAKES WITH TROF AXIS SLIDING THROUGH EASTERN MONTANA/CENTRAL
WYOMING. VARIETY OF SHORT WAVES CONTINUE TO LIFT THROUGH
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER OUR AREA. STRONGEST SHORT WAVE NOW WORKING
INTO THE WRN DAKOTAS.

FOR THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...EXPECT ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE DEVELOPING OVER THE
AREA WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED WAVE...THOUGH MOST ACTIVITY LOOKS
TO REMAIN MAINLY SOUTH OF THE AREA. STORMS SHOULD REMAIN ON THE
TAME SIDE WITH MODEST INSTABILITY/SHEAR TO WORK WITH. COVERAGE
SHOULD DECREASE BY LATER TONIGHT.

ON MONDAY...AREA WILL STILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF CYCLONIC
FLOW ALOFT AS BROAD TROF WORKS ITS WAY THROUGH THE CENTRAL CONUS.
WITH THE TIMING OF WAVES BEING TRICKY...HAVE DECIDED TO BROAD-
BRUSH PRECIP CHANCES THROUGHOUT THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
ON THE COOL SIDE.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)

ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

BROAD MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO BRING A THREAT FOR
DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION INTO MONDAY EVENING. PRECIPITATION
CHANCES SHIFT TO THE NORTH NEAR THE JET STREAM LATER MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY...WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS SOUTH. FLOW TRANSITIONS
MOMENTARILY TO ZONAL AND WILL RESULT IN A DRY PERIOD TUESDAY
NIGHT.

MODELS ARE NOW ADVERTISING A MUCH STRONGER MID LEVEL WAVE
APPROACHING WEDNESDAY...MOVING THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY MORNING. DID INCREASE THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES...ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHEN THE BEST FORCING
ARRIVES. STRONGEST INSTABILITY IS DEPICTED SOUTH OF THE MAIN
FORCING SO STILL QUESTIONABLE IF WE WILL SEE ANY SEVERE STORMS.

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS NOW PUT THE UPPER JET STREAM SOUTH OF THE
NORTH DAKOTA AFTER THURSDAY WHICH PUTS THE MAIN STORM TRACKS
SOUTH AND NORTH OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS REGION THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND. THUS POPS WERE
LOWERED. DID OPT TO GO A BIT BELOW ALLBLEND TEMPERATURES WITH THIS
PATTERN SHIFT AND BASED ON DECENT MODEL AGREEMENT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1234 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

ISOLATED -SHRA/-TSRA ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD...HOWEVER...WILL REFRAIN FROM MENTIONING IN INDIVIDUAL
TERMINAL FORECASTS GIVEN THE LOW PROBABILITY OF ANY IMPACTS AT
INDIVIDUAL TERMINALS. WILL MONITOR AND UPDATE AS NEEDED.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...AJ
SHORT TERM...JJS
LONG TERM...NH
AVIATION...AJ





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