Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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FXUS63 KBIS 250238
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
938 PM CDT TUE MAR 24 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 938 PM CDT TUE MAR 24 2015

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WITH THIS FORECAST UPDATE AS WRAP
PRECIPITATION IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE TROWAL CONTINUES TO PROPAGATE
EAST AND PREDOMINATELY INTO THE RED RIVER VALLEY AFTER 06-07 UTC.
THE BIGGER ISSUE TONIGHT ARE WET AND SLUSHY ROADS ICING UP AS SUB-
FREEZING AIR CONTINUES TO ADVECT ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA BEHIND
THE SURFACE LOW CENTERED ACROSS THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN AS OF 2 UTC.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 725 PM CDT TUE MAR 24 2015

ANOTHER QUICK UPDATE...THIS TIME FOR THE EXPIRATION  OF THE WIND
ADVISORY ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 520 PM CDT TUE MAR 24 2015

QUICK UPDATE TO REFLECT THE LATEST RADAR TRENDS THROUGH 22
UTC...BLENDED TO THE 18-21 UTC HRRR ITERATIONS THROUGH TONIGHT WHICH
HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THE WRAP AROUND PRECIPITATION BAND SO FAR
EARLY THIS EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 PM CDT TUE MAR 24 2015

LOW PRESSURE NEAR BISMARCK AT 20 UTC WILL TRACK NORTHEAST NEAR
DEVILS LAKE BY MID EVENING AND TO FAR NORTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA AFTER
MIDNIGHT. THE RISK OF FREEZING RAIN HAS ENDED...WITH RAIN/SNOW
EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND MAINLY SNOW
TONIGHT.

STRONG WINDS CONTINUE OVER SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA ON THE BACK SIDE
OF THE SYSTEM...EXPECTED TO DIMINISH BY THIS EVENING AS THE
STRONGEST GRADIENT MOVES INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. COULD BE A FEW
HOURS OF NEAR ADVISORY CRITERIA IN THE CENTRAL LATE AFTERNOON TO
EARLY EVENING...BUT AS MIXING LAYER SHRINKS THIS EVENING THINK
GUSTINESS WILL DIMINISH. IT WILL REMAIN BREEZY TO WINDY THROUGH
THE NIGHT...WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS MOVING INTO THE JAMES RIVER
VALLEY TO THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING. WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS ALOFT AND FALL RISE COUPLET HERE
ARRIVING AT THE DIURNAL MINIMUM FOR WINDS...HAVE HELD OFF ON
ISSUING AN ADVISORY. WILL BE MARGINAL THOUGH AND EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT SHIFT CAN CONTINUE TO MONITOR.

SNOW IS TAPERING OFF OVER FAR WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND WE HAVE
CANCELLED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR DIVIDE AND WILLIAMS
COUNTIES. SNOW CONTINUES ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THE
SNOW IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTH AND EAST TONIGHT. REPORTS SO FAR OF
1 TO 2 INCHES FROM AROUND WILLISTON TO STANLEY THIS AFTERNOON.
ANOTHER INCH OR TWO IS POSSIBLE FROM AROUND STANLEY TO KENMARE  AND
SHERWOOD EAST THROUGH MINOT AND BOTTINEAU...RUGBY AND BELCOURT.
TOTAL SNOW AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES MAY BE REALIZED IN A FEW
LOCAL AREAS OF THE FAR NORTH CENTRAL...BUT EXPECT MOST AREAS TO BE
IN THE 1 TO 3 INCH RANGE. EXCEPT FOR THE NORTHWEST COUNTIES
MENTIONED ABOVE...WILL CONTINUE THE CURRENT ADVISORY OVER THE FAR
NORTH CENTRAL. MAIN THREATS WILL BE SLIPPERY ROADS AND REDUCED
VISIBILITIES IN SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW.

SNOW WILL TAPER OFF ACROSS THE FAR NORTH CENTRAL AND EAST CENTRAL
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE EXPECT A DRY BUT BREEZY TO
WINDY AND SEASONABLY COLD DAY WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 30S.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 PM CDT TUE MAR 24 2015

THE EARLY PORTION OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY...WILL FEATURE A 500MB RIDGE OVER THE WEST COAST THAT WILL
STRENGTHEN AND EXPAND EAST INTO THE ROCKIES.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT:
THIS WEST COAST RIDGE WILL KEEP A NORTHWEST FLOW OVER NORTH DAKOTA
AND ALLOW SOME UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE ENERGY IMPULSES TO MOVE
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE FLOW. THIS UPPER LEVEL INSTABILITY WILL
ENHANCE SOME LOW LEVEL LIFTING OVER FAR WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT - ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN DAKOTAS. COOL WITH HIGHS IN
THE 30S AND 40S ACROSS THE REGION.

FRIDAY:
AS THE LARGE-SCALE RIDGE BUILDS AND EXPANDS...IT WILL PUSH A
STRONGER UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE EASTWARD ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA
ACCOMPANIED BY A WARM FRONT. CHANCES OF MAINLY LIGHT SNOW ALONG AND
AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT...CHANGING TO RAIN BEHIND IT. LOOK FOR HIGHS
FROM THE 30S IN THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS AND JAMES VALLEY TO THE 50S IN
THE WEST.

SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY:
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BREAKS DOWN SATURDAY...BUT A WARM DAY AHEAD OF
A SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT SHOULD MOVE ACROSS THE STATE
SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGHS SATURDAY IN THE 50S AND 60S.
PACIFIC HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH MILD
CONDITIONS - HIGHS IN THE 50S TO MID 60S SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 938 PM CDT TUE MAR 24 2015

WIDESPREAD MVFR STRATUS WILL IMPACT ALL OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY MORNING. IFR CONDITIONS
ARE FAVORED IN SNOW AT KMOT/KBIS/KJMS LATE THIS EVENING AND
TONIGHT IN A SNOW BAND ON THE BACKSIDE OF A SURFACE LOW NEAR KDVL
AS OF 02 UTC...THAT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST TONIGHT. STRONG
NORTHWEST WINDS WITH GUSTS OF 25 TO 35 KTS WILL CONTINUE THIS
EVENING AND TONIGHT.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR NDZ002>005-
010-011.

&&

$$

UPDATE...AYD
SHORT TERM...TWH
LONG TERM...JV
AVIATION...AYD






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