Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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FXUS63 KBIS 270640
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1240 AM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

.UPDATE...

ISSUED AT 1240 AM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

INHERITED FORECAST ON TRACK SO ONLY MINIMAL CHANGES WERE REQUIRED
FOR THE EARLY MORNING UPDATE.

DID EXPAND FOG WORDING FARTHER WEST AND NORTH TO INCLUDE ALL
LOCATIONS ALONG THE HIGHWAY 83 CORRIDOR AND EAST. T/TD SPREADS
NEARING ZERO MANY LOCATIONS CENTRAL AND EAST...WITH PATCHY
REDUCED VISIBILITIES ALREADY ALONG MY EASTERN BORDER.


UPDATE ISSUED AT 931 PM CST MON JAN 26 2015

LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES HAVE SUBSEQUENTLY ALLOWED TEMPERATURES
TO FALL NEAR THE FORECAST MINS ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL INTO THE
NORTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY. WILL ADJUST TEMPS DOWN THERE ALL THE
WAY WEST TO THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 543 PM CST MON JAN 26 2015

LATEST SATELLITE LOOPS AT 530 PM CST SHOW A THIN BAND OF CIRRUS
OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. WINDS HAVE BECOME 5 MPH OR LESS MOST
AREAS. INCORPORATED THE LATEST OBS IN FORECAST. NO SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 316 PM CST MON JAN 26 2015

...HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO SMASH RECORDS WEST AND SOUTH
CENTRAL TUESDAY...

RECORD HIGHS HAVE ALREADY BEEN BROKEN AT WILLISTON AND DICKINSON
THIS AFTERNOON. HERE ARE THE OBSERVED HIGH TEMPERATURES AS OF
3 PM CST.

LOCATION          MON HI TEMP  MON HI TEMP
                  OBSERVED     RECORD
                  3 PM CST

DICKINSON         51 (RECORD)  49 IN 1931
WILLISTON         50 (RECORD)  47 IN 2006
BISMARCK          50           52 IN 1942
MINOT             45           58 IN 1906
JAMESTOWN         41           52 IN 1990

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL PIVOT INTO THE PLAINS TONIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY. THIS FEATURE COMBINED WITH A SURFACE TROUGH DEVELOPING
EAST OF THE ROCKIES WILL LEAD TO STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION
DEVELOPING OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TUESDAY. WITH THE
LACK OF SNOW PACK OVER AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF THE MISSOURI
RIVER...THINK THE WARMER TEMPERATURE ALOFT WILL HAVE NO PROBLEM
MIXING TO THE SURFACE. HOWEVER...VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
SNOW PACK REMAINING ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE FROM POWERS LAKE TO
MCCLUSKY TO ASHLEY. THINK THAT THE SNOW PACK EAST OF THE MISSOURI
RIVER WILL TEMPER FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES TUESDAY. GIVEN THE
AFOREMENTIONED METEOROLOGICAL SETUP...THE FOLLOWING TABLE COMPARES
FORECAST HIGHS WITH RECORD HIGHS ON JANUARY 27.

LOCATION          TUE HI TEMP  TUE HI TEMP
                  FORECAST     RECORD

DICKINSON         61           51 IN 2008
WILLISTON         56           47 IN 1931
BISMARCK          58           48 IN 2008
MINOT             50           55 IN 1906
JAMESTOWN         44           47 IN 1989

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 316 PM CST MON JAN 26 2015

THE LONG TERM BEGINS WITH TWO UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVES MOVING EAST
ACROSS THE ROCKIES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. ONE MOVING ACROSS
SOUTHERN ALBERTA/SASKATCHEWAN AND THE OTHER OVER THE
WYOMING/UTAH/COLORADO AREA. THIS WILL INDUCE A WEAK SURFACE LOW TO
DEVELOP OVER THE DAKOTAS TO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. A MILD NIGHT FOR
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WITH LOWS IN THE 20S TO MID 30S.

ON WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE NORTHERN STREAM UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA AS THE UPPER
LEVEL FLOW BECOMES NORTHWESTERLY. THIS WILL ALLOW COLDER CANADIAN
AIR TO MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE STATE BEHIND A SURFACE COLD
FRONT...AND ALSO CREATE ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR LIGHT SNOW. LATE
MORNING HIGHS FROM AROUND 30 NORTH TO MID 40S SOUTHWEST...WITH
LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT FROM 10 ABOVE IN THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS TO THE
UPPER 20S SOUTHWEST. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THAT MOST
PRECIPITATION OF THIS LIGHT PRECIPITATION EVENT IS EXPECTED TO
FALL IN THE FORM OF SNOW AND IN THE NORTH AND EAST...WITH SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS OF AROUND AN INCH MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE HIGHWAY 52
CORRIDOR...FROM KENMARE TO MINOT TO CARRINGTON...WITH LESSER
AMOUNTS SOUTH AND WEST.

THEREAFTER...NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ENSUES WITH AN UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE STATE AGAIN FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT
WITH THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW. ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
WITH HIGHS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY FROM THE 20S TO LOWER 40S.

SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY: THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN
DISAGREEMENT ON HOW FAR WEST THE HUDSON BAY LOW (AND ARCTIC AIR)
WILL INTRUDE INTO NORTH DAKOTA. AVERAGE TO BELOW AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)

ISSUED AT 1240 AM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

A DRY TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA WILL REMAIN
NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH TUESDAY. WHILE VFR IS EXPECTED...BETWEEN
08Z-15Z PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE AT EASTERN TERMINALS INCLUDING KJMS
DUE TO LIGHT WINDS AND WIDESPREAD SNOW MELT. WHILE VSBYS ARE
UNCERTAIN...BEGAN WITH 5 MILES AT KJMS BUT IFR CONDITIONS VERY
POSSIBLE.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 316 PM CST MON JAN 26 2015

RIVER AND STREAM RISES HAVE BEEN NOTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE MISSOURI
BASIN TODAY RESULTING FROM SNOW MELT AND RECENT PRECIPITATION ON
FROZEN SOILS. WHILE FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED FROM RUNOFF
ITSELF...SOME ICE BREAK UP MAY BE POSSIBLE WITH CONTINUED MILD
TEMPERATURES THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS MAY LEAD TO ICE JAMS AND TEMPORARY
HIGH WATER. CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR ICE JAMS.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...NH
SHORT TERM...TM
LONG TERM...JV
AVIATION...NH
HYDROLOGY...AJS





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