Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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FXUS63 KBIS 190603
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
1203 AM CST Sun Nov 19 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1201 AM CST Sun Nov 19 2017

Quiet weather remains. Only change for late night update was to
increase cloud cover a bit to address high clouds moving through
the area.

UPDATE Issued at 923 PM CST Sat Nov 18 2017

Weak high pressure remains over the forecast area late this
evening. Mainly thin high clouds covering the west to mostly clear
skies east. Appears thicker high clouds may increase late tonight
from the north. However, for the rest of the evening and into the
early overnight hours, expect temperatures to continue to drop.
Therefore we lowered min temperatures most areas. Moreso in the
east where warm advection and clouds will arrive last. Expect
single digits northeast to lower and mid 20s southwest. Otherwise
no changes to the going forecast.

UPDATE Issued at 531 PM CST Sat Nov 18 2017

Bumped up sky cover just a little this evening. Otherwise no
changes other than populating latest sensible weather elements and
interpolating to early evening values.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 344 PM CST Sat Nov 18 2017

Quiet weather tonight as Canadian high pressure continues a
southeast slide across North Dakota. The high quickly weakens as a
surface warm front begins to push into the southwest, where above
average lows are expected. The warm front will quickly progress
northeastward across the state through Sunday morning with an
apparent stall as it approaches the northeast corner. Warmer air
will filter into the state behind the front though it will
struggle to reach northeast areas. Highs for Sunday will range
from the lower 50s in the southwest, to the upper 20s in the
northeast corner of the CWA.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday)
Issued at 344 PM CST Sat Nov 18 2017

Potential for a wintry mix Wednesday and prevailing above average
temperatures highlight the extended forecast.

Warmer temperatures will remain into Monday before a clipper fast
tracks through the area Monday night into Tuesday. No
precipitation is expected though breezy conditions will develop
and temperatures will be much cooler Tuesday. Ridging builds over
the Northern Plains Wednesday through Friday bumping temperatures
back above average. Though a baroclinic zone will create a
northeast-to-southwest temperature gradient across the state.
Another quick moving clipper is projected for Wednesday bringing
chances for a wintry mix for much of western and central ND,
possibly impacting holiday travel. The 12Z GFS/ECMWF provide good
agreement on a swath a QPE over much of ND.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)
Issued at 1201 AM CST Sun Nov 19 2017

VFR conditions are expected through the 06Z TAF period with a light
west to southwest flow.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JJS
SHORT TERM...AC
LONG TERM...AC
AVIATION...JV



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