Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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763
FXUS63 KBIS 181127
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
627 AM CDT MON MAY 18 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 627 AM CDT MON MAY 18 2015

FORECAST ON TRACK. MADE VERY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS ACROSS THE
EAST BASED ON LATEST RADAR AND SURFACE OB TRENDS. CONTINUE TO SEE
COVERAGE OF SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS DECREASE ACROSS THE EAST AS STORM
SYSTEM PULLS AWAY. ALSO SEEING WINDS SLOWLY DIMINISH WITH MAJORITY
OF AREA THAT HAS WIND ADVISORY NOW BELOW CRITERIA. PLAN TO ALLOW
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY AND WIND ADVISORY TO EXPIRE AT 7AM. FLOOD
ADVISORY WILL CONTINUE UNTIL 945 AM FOR PORTIONS OF THE JAMES
RIVER VALLEY AND FREEZE WARNING IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN ACROSS THE STATE FROM WEST TO
EAST. FREEZING TEMPERATURES EXPECTED AGAIN TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 339 AM CDT MON MAY 18 2015

MAIN CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM INVOLVE DECISIONS ON WHETHER TO KEEP
THE CURRENT WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY AND WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR
VARIOUS AREAS/COUNTIES...OR ALLOW THEM TO EXPIRE.

CURRENTLY...THE STRONG SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ASSOCIATED WITH
THE RECENT HEAVY RAINS...STRONG WINDS...AND SNOW WAS CENTERED OVER
NORTHERN MINNESOTA. A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDED FROM
CENTRAL CANADA THROUGH SASKATCHEWAN TO EASTERN MONTANA AND WYOMING.

REGARDING WINDS AND THE CURRENT WIND ADVISORY:
NORTHERLY WIND SPEEDS WERE LIGHTER NEAR THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE IN
MONTANA...AND INCREASE FARTHER EAST TOWARDS THE MINNESOTA LOW.
CURRENT WIND SPEEDS OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF NORTH DAKOTA WERE BELOW
THE WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA OF SUSTAINED 30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 40 MPH.
FARTHER EAST...STRONG WINDS CONTINUED WITH GUSTS OVER 40 MPH MAINLY
EAST OF A MINOT TO BISMARCK LINE. THUS WILL END THE WIND ADVISORY
FOR THOSE COUNTIES ALONG A MINOT TO BISMARCK LINE AND WESTWARD.
BOTTINEAU TO MCCLUSKY AND HARVEY...TO NAPOLEON AND ASHLEY AND
POINTS EAST WILL DEFINE THE AREA WHERE THE STRONGER WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AT LEAST THROUGH DAYBREAK.

REGARDING SNOW AND THE CURRENT WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY:
SHORT TERM MODELS ARE IN SYNCH WITH CURRENT REGIONAL RADAR AND
OBSERVATION TRENDS IN DECREASING THE AREAL COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF
PRECIPITATION...ESPECIALLY FOR COUNTIES IN WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA.
WILL END THE ADVISORY FOR THE 5 WESTERN COUNTIES IN THE ORIGINAL
ADVISORY: BURKE...MOUNTRAIL...RENVILLE...WARD...MCLEAN. WILL KEEP
THE REMAINING COUNTIES IN THE ADVISORY:
BOTTINEAU...MCHENRY...SHERIDAN COUNTIES AND POINTS EAST.

REGARDING THE CURRENT FREEZE WARNING FOR ALL COUNTIES IN WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THAT WERE NOT IN A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY:
THIS FREEZE WARNING IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM CDT. THE ENTIRE AREA OF
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA IS ALREADY EXPERIENCING FREEZING OR
NEAR FREEZING TEMPERATURES. THE DILEMMA IS THAT A FREEZE WARNING WAS
NOT ISSUED FOR COUNTIES IN THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY - THE
FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE IMPLIED. HOWEVER...SINCE DROPPING THE
WESTERN COUNTIES OUT OF THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY...DECIDED TO ADD
THOSE COUNTIES IN THE FREEZE WARNING - MAINLY TO KEEP A CONSISTENT-
LOOKING MAP VIEW OF THE FORECAST AREA.

EXPECTING CLEARING FROM WEST TO EAST TODAY THROUGH THIS
EVENING...WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL DAKOTAS TUESDAY
MORNING.

REGARDING MINIMUM TEMPERATURES EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING:
WILL ISSUE A FREEZE WARNING FOR ALL OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA FOR THIS TIME PERIOD.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 AM CDT MON MAY 18 2015

A RELATIVELY QUIET WEATHER WEEK IS EXPECTED WITH HIGH PRESSURE
MAINTAINING MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS AND MODERATING TEMPS THROUGH THE
WEEK. TUESDAY NIGHT WILL SEE ANOTHER CHANCE OF FROST WITH MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES FORECAST TO BE AROUND 32 DEGREES. OTHERWISE...HIGH
TEMPS WILL CLIMB TO THE 50S TUESDAY AND THE MID/UPPER 60S BY
FRIDAY.

LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST ON FRIDAY WILL SLOWLY
MOVE EASTWARD TO THE PLAINS BY SUNDAY. SURFACE LOW REFLECTED BY
GFS AT 12Z SUNDAY OVER CENTRAL NEBRASKA IS A LITTLE FARTHER NORTH
THAN ECMWF AND ENSEMBLE MEAN LOCATION WHICH HAVE LOW CENTERED OVER
WESTERN KANSAS. CONSEQUENTLY...GFS QPF FORECAST SPREADS HEAVIER
PRECIP ACROSS MUCH OF THE STATE ON SATURDAY WHILE ECMWF HOLDS IT
TO OUR SOUTH. GIVEN THESE UNCERTAINTIES AND THE TIME FRAME
INVOLVED... FORECAST CURRENTLY HAS CHANCE POPS FOR THE WEEKEND
OVER THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 627 AM CDT MON MAY 18 2015

VFR AT KISN AND KDIK WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD. KBIS AND KMOT SHOULD BE MAINLY VFR CIGS...THOUGH
POSSIBLE MVFR AT TIMES MAY OCCUR 12Z TO 16Z. KJMS SHOULD BE MVFR
THROUGH 00Z...THEN VFR CIGS TONIGHT. STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS
ESPECIALLY AT KJMS TO DECREASE GRADUALLY THROUGHOUT THE DAYTIME
HOURS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 339 AM CDT MON MAY 18 2015

AN AREAL FLOOD ADVISORY WAS ISSUED SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR THE SOUTH
CENTRAL COUNTIES MAINLY IN THE COTEAU AND JAMES RIVER BASINS
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. THIS INCLUDES KIDDER...LOGAN...AND
MCINTOSH COUNTIES AND THOSE COUNTIES EAST TO THE JAMES RIVER.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 4 INCHES WITH SOME ISOLATED HIGHER
AMOUNTS WERE CAUSING PONDING...AND FLOODED FIELDS. CALLS AND
INQUIRIES SUNDAY REVEALED SOME UNCERTAINTY THAT THE IMPACT OF THE
RAINS WOULD HAVE IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TO ROAD SURFACES. ONLY
MINOR FLOODING OF ROADS WAS REPORTED BY EARLY EVENING.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM CDT /9 AM MDT/ THIS MORNING FOR
NDZ001>003-009>011-017>021-031>037-040>048-050-051.

FREEZE WARNING FROM 10 PM CDT /9 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING TO 10 AM
CDT /9 AM MDT/ TUESDAY FOR NDZ001>005-009>013-017>023-025-
031>037-040>048-050-051.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR NDZ004-
005-012-013-022-023-025.

WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR NDZ036-037-047-048-
050-051.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JNS
SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...JNS
AVIATION...JV
HYDROLOGY...JV/WAA



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