Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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FXUS63 KBIS 192358

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
658 PM CDT Wed Apr 19 2017

Issued at 658 PM CDT Wed Apr 19 2017

Some adjustments to pops based on latest radar and high res model
guidance. Rain continues to spread slowly north across central ND
and slowly diminishing across the southwest per Bowman radar. Have
seen some lightning strikes in southern Saskatchewan near surface
low/frontal zone with short wave evident in water vapor imagery.
Instability quite limited in northwest ND, though SPC meso
analysis shows around 100 J/Kg of CAPE in our far northwest. With
shortwave forecast to drop southeast into ND, have maintained
isolated thunderstorms NW in early evening.


.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 317 PM CDT Wed Apr 19 2017

The short term will focus on the widespread showers across
southwest and southern North Dakota associated with a mid level
circulation that is very evident on the regional radars. High
pressure across northeast North Dakota will likely limit the
northward extent of the precipitation area.

A narrow band of instability extends into northwest North Dakota.
Although the shear is weak should have enough instability to
support widely scattered thunderstorms.

On Thursday the precipitation will gradually end from west to
east during the day.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 317 PM CDT Wed Apr 19 2017

For the extended period a split h500 flow initially will leave an
h500 region of higher heights over the northern plains Friday but
by Saturday this transient feature exits the region as a northern
stream shortwave across Canada reinforces the mid level dry flow.
Both days Friday and Saturday look reasonably mild and dry with
highs near or a bit above normal.

The flow becomes more unsettled by Sunday into the first half of
next week as a stream of shortwaves move off the eastern Pacific
and track across the Northern Plains. Still to much uncertainty
to pin down any significant storms but a rain/snow mix is likely
Monday and Monday night. The GFS would support more snow the ECMWF
probably more rain. The NAEFS Climatological precipitable water as
yet does not see much of an event. So am comfortable going with
the SuperBlend guidance giving mostly rain and rain/snow mix
north with generally cooler temperatures next week.

After this the long range guidance suggests cooler than normal for
the 8 to 14 day outlook and this trend currently extended through
3 to 4 weeks.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening)
Issued at 658 PM CDT Wed Apr 19 2017

MVFR conditions due to low ceilings expected over much of the
area overnight as low pressure moves through the region. IFR is
possible as well, although currently only forecast at KMOT early
in the morning. Conditions should improve from west to east with
all locations in VFR by Thursday afternoon.




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