Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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FXUS63 KBIS 140025

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
625 PM CST Tue Feb 13 2018


Issued at 624 PM CST Tue Feb 13 2018

The inherited forecast remains on track so only minor edits were
required, updating hourly weather elements based on latest
observations and trends.


.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 225 PM CST Tue Feb 13 2018

Current surface analysis places troughing to the lee of the
Rockies with high over the eastern United States. Upper level
analysis places split flow over the region with the northern
plains remaining in the northern stream. Mainly quiet weather
remains over our area.

For tonight, quiet weather remains as southwesterly winds continue
over the area while a surface low deepens and slides over the
prairie provinces.

On Wednesday, surface low continues to drop to the east southeast
while a cold front sweeps into northern parts of the area in the
afternoon. Ahead of the front, very mild temperatures are
expected. As the front shifts in, chances for snow develop. A
little rain will be possible over northern areas.

Front continues its sweep through the area in the evening with
snow chances spreading through the area as a broad short wave
continues to push in and the right entrance region of a jet
streak settle through. Greatest lift remains over northern
locations where around 2 to 3 inches of snow remain possible.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 225 PM CST Tue Feb 13 2018

Most of the snow tapers off Thursday morning into the afternoon
as high pressure settles into the area, with temperatures
remaining quite cold.

Warming trend the re-develops for the end of the work week into
the start of the weekend. The next disturbance pushes into the
area this weekend, but models differ a little on the placement and
timing of the system. Will keep elevated chances for precipitation
in the forecast. As of now, there is a chance of snow Saturday
afternoon through Sunday morning, with current model trends favoring
the northern half of the state for some light snow amounts. Cooler
temperatures then settle in to start the work week.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening)

Issued at 624 PM CST Tue Feb 13 2018

Localized MVFR ceilings and visibility with light snow may develop
over far northwest North Dakota towards late morning Wednesday.
Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail.





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