Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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000
FXUS63 KBIS 121601
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1001 AM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1001 AM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

WE ADDED A FEW FLURRIES INTO THE FORECAST THROUGH THE MORNING OVER
SOUTHWEST ND WITH THIS UPDATE BASED ON OBSERVATIONS AT DICKINSON
AND AND HETTINGER THE LAST HOUR...AND REFINED SKY COVER A BIT OVER
THE SOUTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY AND SOUTH CENTRAL ND WHERE STRATUS
BETWEEN BISMARCK AND JAMESTOWN IS BEGINNING TO SHRINK. THE WIND
CHILL ADVISORY CONTINUES UNTIL 18 UTC FOR ROLETTE COUNTY WITH
OBSERVED WIND CHILLS AROUND -35 F THERE THIS MORNING.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 625 AM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

LOWERED HIGH TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
WITH LITTLE TO NO TEMPERATURE RECOVERY EXPECTED TODAY AS ARCTIC
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA. FORECAST BLENDED TO
OBSERVED TRENDS THROUGH 12 UTC.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 325 AM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

MAIN CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM INCLUDE TEMPERATURES (AND ASSOCIATED
WIND CHILL VALUES) AS WELL AS A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW TONIGHT WEST
AND CENTRAL...POSSIBLY MIXED WITH OR CHANGING TO FREEZING RAIN FOR A
BRIEF TIME IN THE SOUTHWEST.

CURRENTLY...ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER NORTHERN
SASKATCHEWAN...WITH ITS AXIS PUSHING SOUTHWARD INTO THE EASTERN
DAKOTAS. TEMPERATURES WERE ALREADY BELOW ZERO IN NORTHEASTERN NORTH
DAKOTA...AND SKIES HAD CLEARED THERE AS WELL. FARTHER SOUTH AND WEST
LOW CLOUD COVER HAS HELPED KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE 20S ABOVE ZERO
IN SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA.

THE ARCTIC HIGH IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE PUSHING SOUTHEAST
TODAY...WITH THE CENTER REACHING THE RED RIVER VALLEY OVER MANITOBA
AND ND/SD/MN. LOW TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING ARE FORECAST TO BE
AROUND 5 TO 10 BELOW ZERO IN THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS WITH A NORTH WIND
AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH...RESULTING IN WIND CHILL VALUES OF 20 TO 30
BELOW ZERO. A WIND CHILL ADVISORY IS CURRENTLY IN EFFECT FOR ROLETTE
COUNTY UNTIL NOON TODAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY ARE EXPECTED TO
RANGE FROM AROUND ZERO IN THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS AND NORTHERN JAMES
VALLEY TO THE 20S ABOVE ZERO IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST.

TONIGHT THE ARCTIC HIGH CENTER IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE SLIDING
SOUTHEAST TO CENTRAL MINNESOTA/IOWA BY SATURDAY MORNING. AS THE HIGH
MOVES SOUTHEAST...THIS WILL ALLOW SOUTHERLY WINDS TO DEVELOP OVER
THE WESTERN DAKOTAS AND WARM ADVECTION ALONG WITH IT. ISENTROPIC
LIFT AIDED BY H925-H850 SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 20-30 KNOTS WILL PRODUCE
ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR LIGHT SNOW TO DEVELOP OVER EASTERN MONTANA
FRIDAY AFTERNOON...SPREADING INTO THE WESTERN DAKOTAS FRIDAY NIGHT.
FORECAST BUFKIT SOUNDINGS INDICATE A TEMPERATURE PROFILE THAT FAVORS
LIGHT SNOW MIXING WITH OR CHANGING OVER TO FREEZING RAIN IN THE FAR
SOUTHWEST - JUST AS THE ISENTROPIC LIFT BEGINS TO WEAKEN LATE
TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 AM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

A WINTRY MIX AND ACCUMULATING SNOW SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY HIGHLIGHTS
THE EXTENDED FORECAST.

THE 00 AND INCOMING 06 UTC DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE SUITES ARE
IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON A STRONG SHORTWAVE TO PROPAGATE ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PLAINS SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. THE 00 AND 06 UTC
NAM/NAM NEST...AND 00 UTC GFS/GEM HAVE TRENDED STRONGER WITH THE
DEPTH OF THE WAVE WITH GREATER QPF...ALL SUPPORTED BY THE 00 UTC
GEFS/SREF MEANS. HOWEVER...UNCERTAINTY IN DETAILS REMAINS GIVEN
THE FLUCTUATION IN MODEL SOLUTIONS OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. AT THIS
TIME...A WINTRY MIX OF FREEZING RAIN...SLEET AND SNOW IS POSSIBLE
ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA WHERE A WARM LAYER ALOFT OF +2 TO +4 C
IS FORECAST TO RESIDE LATE SATURDAY MORNING AND THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. A CHANGE OVER TO ALL SNOW IS POSSIBLE BY EVENING AS
COLD AIR ADVECTION BEGINS TO ERODE THE WARM LAYER. ACROSS CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA...SNOW IS EXPECTED TO BE THE DOMINANT PRECIPITATION
TYPE. MODERATE SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE CENTRAL BY
SUNDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...SHOULD THE STRONGER TRENDS IN THE
REMAINDER OF THE 06 UTC AND 12 UTC SOLUTIONS CONTINUE...WINTER
WEATHER HEADLINES MAY BE NEEDED FOR BOTH SNOW AND ICE POTENTIAL
ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 1001 AM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER CENTRAL CANADA WITH ITS AXIS EXTENDING
INTO THE EASTERN DAKOTAS BUILDS SOUTH AND IS EXPECTED TO KEEP VFR
CONDITIONS AT KMOT AND KISN. BAND OF MVFR CEILINGS AT KDIK AND
KJMS WILL BECOME VFR BY AROUND 18Z AS THE HIGH CONTINUES TO DROP
SOUTH. HOWEVER MVFR CIGS RETURN AT KDIK AND KISN AROUND 06Z FRIDAY
NIGHT WITH A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW. LOW CIGS AND LIGHT SNOW SPREADS
EAST TOWARDS KMOT AND KBIS BUT LIKELY NOT UNTIL AFTER 12Z
SATURDAY.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR NDZ005.

&&

$$

UPDATE...CJS
SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...AYD
AVIATION...JV/CJS


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