Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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FXUS63 KBIS 260206
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
906 PM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 905 PM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014

ONLY MINOR UPDATES WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST / GRIDS TO REFLECT
THE LATEST TRENDS. IT STILL APPEARS THE FALL IN TEMPERATURES
SHOULD SLOW AS WARM AIR ADVECTION INCREASES OVERNIGHT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 555 PM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014

BLENDED THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS INTO THE FORECAST...OTHERWISE
EVERYTHING LOOKS TO BE ON TRACK. WILL MONITOR TEMPERATURE TRENDS
AS LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION TAKES HOLD.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)

ISSUED AT 301 PM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014

A MILD SUNDAY WILL HIGHLIGHT THE SHORT TERM.

LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION IS FORECAST TO INCREASE AHEAD OF A
WARM FRONT TONIGHT ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA THROUGH FAR
SOUTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA. SOUTHEASTERLY SURFACE WINDS ON THE ORDER
OF 10 TO 15 KTS WILL HELP TO KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S
FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. THE NOW OCCLUDING WARM FRONT IS FORECAST TO
PROPAGATE INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA BY MIDDAY ON SUNDAY...AND
INTO THE RED RIVER VALLEY INTO THE EVENING. GIVEN 850 MB
TEMPERATURES AROUND 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL AND GOOD
MIXING ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...FOLLOWED THE WARMER
EDGE OF THE 12 UTC GUIDANCE SUITE FOR TEMPERATURES WHICH HAS
VERIFIED BEST THIS MONTH. THIS RESULTS IN WIDESPREAD HIGHS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 60S...WITH LOWER 70S POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST
AND SOUTH CENTRAL.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)

ISSUED AT 301 PM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014

ACTIVE AND COOLER WEATHER PATTERN MATERIALIZES FOR THE LONG TERM
PERIOD...FOLLOWED BY DRY WEATHER MID WEEK AND ON AND A WARM UP LATE
NEXT WEEK INTO THE FOLLOWING WEEKEND.

FLOW ALOFT TRANSITIONS TO SOUTHWESTERLY DURING THE DAY SUNDAY AS A
LONG WAVE TROUGH MOVES OVER THE ROCKIES. CLOUDY CONDITIONS AND
INCREASING CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS
LEAD EMBEDDED S/WV`S LIFT ACROSS THE LOCAL REGION. BEST CHANCES FOR
LIGHT RAIN ARRIVE MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT AS FORCING AND MOISTURE
BOTH INCREASE WHEN THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST INTO THE PLAINS ALONG
WITH A STRONG SURFACE COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTH ACROSS THE DAKOTAS.
CAA CONTINUES MONDAY NIGHT WITH LIGHT RAIN MIXING WITH OR BECOMING
ALL SNOW OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING FROM WEST TO EAST. DOUBTFUL
AT THIS TIME WE WILL SEE ANY ACCUMULATIONS BUT CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW
TENTHS DEPENDING ON DURATION/INTENSITY. SFC DYNAMICS AND THE THERMAL
PROFILE WILL JUST NOT BE CONDUCIVE FOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS THAT WOULD
CAUSE IMPACTS SO WILL NOT MENTION IN THE HWO WITH THIS FORECAST
ISSUANCE.

NOTABLE DROP IN DAYTIME TEMPERATURES FROM SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH
HIGHS MONDAY IN THE MID 40S/MID 50S. TUESDAY-THURSDAY TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN COOL AND MORE OCTOBERISH WITH OUR FLOW ALOFT
WEST-NORTHWESTERLY. AS WE HEAD INTO THE LATER PARTS OF NEXT
WEEK...INCLUDING HALLOWEEN...UNCERTAINTY INCREASES. 12Z GFS REMAINS
COOLER AND LESS PROGRESSIVE...WHILE THE 12Z ECMWF IS FASTER AND
STILL BRINGS ANOTHER WARM FRONT THOUGH ON FRIDAY. ALL MODELS MILD
FOR NEXT WEEKEND...SAT/SUN...AS A STRONG RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE
CENTRAL UNITED STATES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 555 PM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014

WILL ISSUE A VFR FORECAST AT ALL TERMINAL LOCATIONS...THOUGH THERE
IS A SMALL CONCERN THAT CUMULUS COULD DEVELOP EARLY SUNDAY MORNING
IN ADVANCE OF A WARM FRONT. THE LATEST NAM SHOWS THIS POSSIBILITY
MAINLY FOR KBIS AND KJMS. WILL CARRY A FEW SCATTERED CUMULUS
CLOUDS FOR NOW. WINDS WILL GENERALLY NOT BE MUCH OF A
CONCERN...HOWEVER WESTERLY BREEZES MAY BECOME A LITTLE GUSTY IN
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA SUNDAY AFTERNOON.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...CK
SHORT TERM...AYD
LONG TERM...NH
AVIATION...CK






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