Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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000
FXUS63 KBIS 272122
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
322 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

SUNNY SKIES AND SOUTHERLY/SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS
HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST OF THE REGION.

A WEAK DRY COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO ENTER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA
AROUND MIDNIGHT...THEN PUSH INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA BY SATURDAY
MORNING. THE ONLY NOTICABLE IMPACT WILL BE A WIND SHIFT TO
NORTHWESTERLY IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. GIVEN THE WEAK NATURE OF
THE BOUNDARY...NOT MUCH WIND IS EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES WILL ONCE
AGAIN BE BELOW NORMAL...RANGING FROM THE TEENS TO 20S BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

THE MAIN LONG TERM HIGHLIGHT IS ANOTHER CHUNK OF ARCTIC AIR MONDAY
NIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH DANGEROUS WIND
CHILL TEMPERATURES ONCE AGAIN DEVELOPING. PRECIPITATION PROSPECTS
THROUGH THE LONG TERM REMAIN REMAIN SLIM TO NONE. THE PREVIOUS
TREND OF A GRADUAL MODERATING TREND LATE IN THE EXTENDED REMAINS
ON TRACK.

FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...ANOTHER UPPER LOW SHIFTS INTO
HUDSON BAY ALLOWING THE PERSISTENT LONGWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES AND RESULTANT NORTHWEST FLOW INTO NORTH DAKOTA TO
PERSIST. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL ROTATE AROUND THE AFOREMENTIONED
HUDSON BAY LOW SATURDAY NIGHT AND SLIDE INTO SASKATCHEWAN. THIS
WILL SUPPORT A WEAK SURFACE COLD FRONT TO PASS THROUGH FROM WEST
TO EAST...06Z SUNDAY THROUGH 00Z MONDAY. PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL
IS MEAGER...WITH WEAK/SHALLOW LIFT ALONG THE SURFACE COLD FRONTAL
AS WELL AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSAGE. THUS ONLY EXPECT A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SNOW SATURDAY NIGHT NORTHWEST AND FAR NORTH CENTRAL WITH
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...FOLLOWED BY FLURRIES SUNDAY WITH THE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH.

FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...A BRIEF TRANSITORY RIDGE SUNDAY
NIGHT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A SURFACE WARM FRONTAL FRONTAL SYSTEM
THROUGH WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA MONDAY. RISING H85
TEMPERATURES AND CORRESPONDING SURFACE HIGHS WILL BRIEFLY RESULT
IN AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S WEST AND SOUTH
CENTRAL...AND 20S FARTHER NORTH AND EAST. AN ARCTIC FRONT PUSHES
INTO NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA JUST PRIOR TO 00Z TUESDAY.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE AFOREMENTIONED ARCTIC
FRONT QUICKLY SWEEPS THROUGH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA BY 06Z TUESDAY
WITH AS A TIGHT BAROCLINIC ZONE SHIFTING THROUGH. A MINOR THREAT
FOR A BRIEF SNOWSHOWER ALONG THE FRONT AS IT SLIPS THROUGH
OTHERWISE THE MAIN HIGHLIGHT WILL BE INCREASING WINDS AND COLD AIR
ADVECTION. 6HR PRESSURE RISES OF 12MB PER GFS PUSH INTO NORTHWEST
NORTH DAKOTA BY 06Z TUESDAY...THEN WEAKEN SLIGHTLY ACROSS THE REST
OF WESTERN AND SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA LATE MONDAY
NIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING. GFS BUFKIT SOUNDINGS AT KDIK AND KBIS
INDICATE COLD AIR ADVECTION COMMENCING AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH THE
ONSET OF A DEEPENING MIXED LAYER. THE MAGNITUDE OF THE MIXED LAYER
WINDS ARE 30KT WITH NEAR 40KT AT THE TOP. DESPITE HIGHER MIXING
HEIGHTS DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS TUESDAY...WIND SPEEDS REMAIN
SIMILAR TO LATE MONDAY NIGHT. A CONSIDERATION FOR A LOW-END WIND
ADVISORY WILL BE REVISITED IN FUTURE MODEL RUNS AS WE GET CLOSER.
WITH CYCLONIC FLOW AND SUCCESSIVE SHORTWAVES TO PUSH
THROUGH...PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS DOMINATE MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

IN TERMS OF TEMPERATURES...THE COLDEST CHUNK OF AIR ARRIVES LATE
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE NORTH AMERICAN ENSEMBLE FORECAST
PERCENTILE TABLE SHOWS H85 TEMPS OF -24C COVERING MOST OF WESTERN
AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. IN FACT
THE H85-H50 COLUMN ADVERTISES VALUES NEAR OR AT THE MIN WITH
RESPECT TO CLIMATOLOGY. THIS INDICATES THE ENSEMBLE IS FORECASTING
TEMPERATURES FALLING OUTSIDE THE 1979-2009 CLIMATOLOGY FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR. NORTHWEST WINDS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WILL
REMAIN AT 10 TO 20 MPH AS THE SURFACE HIGH STILL RESIDES OVER
WESTERN SASKATCHEWAN. WITH MIXING...IN COMBINATION WITH PARTLY TO
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY CONDITIONS...EXPECT MINIMUM TEMPERATURES IN THE
5 BELOW TO 15 BELOW RANGE AS OPPOSED TO A POTENTIALLY COLDER
SCENARIO OTHERWISE. THE BRISK WINDS WILL HOWEVER ALLOW WIND CHILL
TEMPERATURES TO REACH THE 25F BELOW TO 39F BELOW RANGE TUESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING OVER ALL BUT THE FAR SOUTHWEST.
HIGHS WEDNESDAY WILL RANGE FROM ZERO NORTHEAST TO 15 ABOVE
SOUTHWEST.

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...SURFACE HIGH QUICKLY SLIDES THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION MAKING A RETURN
12Z THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. THIS IS A REFLECTION OF A WARM FRONTAL
PUSH THROUGH WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY
MORNING...TEMPORARILY PUSHING THE MAIN BAROCLINIC ZONE INTO
SOUTHERN CANADA. HOWEVER BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND BEYOND...AS A
SURFACE LOW SLIDES EAST AND ALLOWS THE CLIPPER COLD FRONT TO SHIFT
THROUGH...THE BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL ADVANCE SOUTH INTO NORTH
DAKOTA. REMAINING DRY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH MODERATING
TEMPERATURES. HIGHS THURSDAY WILL RANGE FROM 15F IN THE TURTLE
MOUNTAINS TO 35F IN THE SOUTHWEST. BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON...HIGHS
WILL WARM TO THE MID 20S NORTHEAST TO LOWER 40S SOUTHWEST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1251 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE
STATE SATURDAY MORNING...GENERATING A WIND SHIFT TO A
WESTERLY/NORTHWESTERLY DIRECTION SATURDAY.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TM
LONG TERM...KS
AVIATION...TM




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