Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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841
FXUS63 KBIS 222133
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
333 PM CST Wed Nov 22 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 227 PM CST Wed Nov 22 2017

Fog potential tonight into Thursday morning, and possible all
time record highs for Thanksgiving highlight the short term
forecast.

The 19-20 UTC RAP/HRRR favor the potential development of fog
across central North Dakota on the cool side of the low level
baroclinic zone. Also added a mention of patchy fog for the
Missouri River Valley above Lake Sakakawea and also most of
northwest North Dakota.

For Thanksgiving, record highs are forecast for many locations
across western and central North Dakota with an anomalous warm
airmass characterized by 850mb mean temperatures on the 12 UTC
NAEFS around their 97.5-99th percentiles. With favorable
southwesterly winds for warming, the top edge of the forecast
envelope is favored for most areas for highs. The one caveat will
be how long stratus and fog is able to hold across the north
central through the James River Valley and its associated impact
on forecast highs.

Location....Forecast High...November 23.....Thanksgiving All Time

Dickinson........71...........63 in 1984........65 in 1998
Williston........67...........56 in 2011........56 in 2002
Bismarck.........65...........62 in 2011........62 in 2002
Minot............61...........55 in 1942........57 in 2011
Jamestown........54...........59 in 1942........56 in 2011

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 227 PM CST Wed Nov 22 2017

A windy Friday and a potential rain/snow mix Monday into Tuesday
highlight the extended forecast.

The 12 UTC global suite is in agreement on a cold front
propagating across western and central North Dakota Thursday
night. Strong winds behind the cold front are favored, especially
Friday morning and into the afternoon, when isallobaric forcing is
greatest. 45-55kts to mix in the 800-850mb layer suggest that wind
headlines are possible. However, the window for high wind warning
criteria gusts is small. As has been the case, a few sites may
sporadically reach warning criteria Friday morning with most sites
in advisory criteria (sub 50kt gusts).

For early next week, the 12 UTC suite diverges on how the wave
arriving onto the Pacific Northwest coast Sunday into Monday
evolves into the Northern and Central Plains Monday into Tuesday.
While there is a chance for a rain and snow mix for western and
central North Dakota, confidence in any one solution is low.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
Issued at 227 PM CST Wed Nov 22 2017

An area of stratus stretching from Regina to Weyburn Saskatchewan,
and into Rolla North Dakota, will continue to sag southeast tonight.
It appears KMOT/KJMS will receive the brunt of the impact, while
KBIS will remain on the western fringes. Ifr to lifr cigs/vsbys
expected, however this will need further monitoring for possible
vlifr conditions at some point. Improvements towards 18z Thursday
as the fog/stratus begin to lift. The western terminals, KISN/KDIK
will remain in vfr status.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PA
LONG TERM...PA
AVIATION...KS



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