Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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FXUS63 KBIS 181800

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
100 PM CDT Tue Apr 18 2017

Issued at 1023 AM CDT Tue Apr 18 2017

Will lower the highs for today as the widespread stratus will
inhibit the break up of the cool boundary layer.

UPDATE Issued at 856 AM CDT Tue Apr 18 2017

The dense fog has improved in the city of Dickinson however south
through the airport there is a quarter mile visibility. Otherwise
patchy areas of fog continue across the west. The NWS network
radars show the precipitation has just about moved east of the
area. Will trim the POPs down east.

Issued at 653 AM CDT Tue Apr 18 2017

Rain continues to push east with the mid level low. Light radar
returns north central associated with the previously mentioned
boundary induced rain/snow chances this morning (see discussion

Satellite showing low stratus well, and sky cover grids were
tweaked to match. Thereafter followed the HRRR/GLAMP25 output for
sky cover this morning.


.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)

Issued at 340 AM CDT Tue Apr 18 2017

Forecast highlights in the short term period will be ongoing early
morning precipitation followed by a dry Tuesday/Tuesday night.

Currently, strong mid/upper level low pressure over south central
ND/north central SD continues to push east, with its associated
surface low over northeastern SD. Well-defined comma head
signature on regional radar imagery as showers wrap around the mid
level low. Thunderstorm activity continues over my southeast in
the warm sector where SPS mesoanalysis indicates 500-1000 J/KG of
MUCAPE. Thunder activity will push off to my east over the next
hour or two.

Storm system moves into western Minnesota 12-15Z with much if not
all precipitation activity exiting my east by 12-13Z. High res
models hint at some lingering light shower activity along a weak
boundary this morning from Minot to Jamestown along with a well
saturated boundary layer so kept some low POPs in for the AM
hours for this area. Cloud cover and fog potential will be the
main challenge through 18Z. HRRR continues to advertise patchy
fog, and along with the RAP/NAM/GLAMP25 also paints in a large
area of stratus over much of my area with the exception of
southwestern ND. Some observing points are starting to show this
low stratus which most of the models maintain through the morning
and some areas through early to mid afternoon along a surface
ridge axis. Daytime highs may be impacted depending on how this
plays out. Opted to lean towards the cloudier scenario so cooled
highs a bit where I expect clouds to linger longer.

High pressure moves east tonight with return flow increasing west
into central. Another embedded strong S/WV will eject east-
northeast across the central Rockies tonight, though all models
keep associated precipitation to our south through 12Z Wed morning
so kept the forecast dry tonight.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)

Issued at 340 AM CDT Tue Apr 18 2017

A southern stream S/WV and northern stream S/WV will each bring
rain chances to the region Wednesday and Wednesday night. SREF
t-storm prob indicates some potential for t-storms wed daytime
west so this was added into the forecast.

Split flow pattern Thursday-Friday keeping things mainly dry,
ridging Friday night/Saturday, then a potentially strong storm
system Sunday night into early next week highlight the remainder
of the the extended period. Temperatures generally in the 50s and
60s with lows in the 30s to mid 40s.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 1259 PM CDT Tue Apr 18 2017

Low pressure over central Minnesota will continue moving east today.
High pressure over Manitoba will move south into the eastern Dakotas
and Minnesota today and tonight, while low pressure continues to
develop over the Front Range.

MVFR and IFR CIGS will continue to rotate around the departing low,
keeping MVFR and IFR conditions at KJMS through the TAF period.
MVFR/IFR CIGS at KMOT and KBIS should improve to VFR by this
evening, while KISN should improve during the afternoon. KDIK had
already improved to VFR.

Later tonight as the low pressure develops over the Front Range,
southeasterly winds will develop over western ND and MVFR/IFR
CIGS should move back into the TAF sites. Another low pressure
system will bring a chance of rain showers to western and central ND
on Wednesday...with the better chances after 18z Wednesday.




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