Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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FXUS63 KBIS 192022
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
322 PM CDT FRI AUG 19 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 321 PM CDT Fri Aug 19 2016

Currently...surface high pressure was centered over western/central
MT. Latest satellite pic indicate the base of the upper level trough
extending southwestward across Manitoba, the northwest corner of ND,
and into northern WY. The area of light to moderate rain ahead of
the upper trough continued across southwest/south central ND into
western SD.

The latest iterations of the operational and experimental HRRR
depict the area of light rain ending over southwestern ND late this
afternoon/early evening, but continuing in south central ND near the
Missouri Valley for much of the evening hours. Farther east towards
the James River Valley, the models indicate light rain beginning
there late this afternoon, and continuing tonight as the main area
of precipitation moves southeastward. Models are indicating that
although the main base of the upper level trough should be into the
Red River Valley by Saturday morning, a trailing upper level impulse
in the northwest flow will move southeast across ND. Kept chances of
rain showers in the James River Valley Saturday into the afternoon.

Lows tonight should range from 45 to 55, with highs Saturday from
the mid 60s in the James Valley to the lower 70s west.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday)
Issued at 321 PM CDT Fri Aug 19 2016

After lingering precipitation exits the James River Valley Saturday
afternoon, the large surface high will have moved southeastward
towards Iowa/Missouri. At upper levels, a northwest flow regime will
be in place across the Dakotas, with the base of the upper level
trough well to the east into the Great Lakes area. This will allow
clearing skies over North Dakota, and with the cool air in place
this should bring another night with low temperatures in the 40s.

The upper level western ridge builds quickly into the western Plains
Sunday and Monday, bringing a warming trend late this weekend into
early next week. Highs Sunday mid 70s to lower 80s, with Monday
highs mid 80s to lower 90s. Meanwhile an upper low moves into the
western British Columbia coast Sunday, moving eastward across the
Rockies Monday, reaching the northern US and Canadian prairies
Monday night/Tuesday. The GFS is a bit faster bringing an attendant
cold front east across our area Monday night, with the ECMWF
depicting a frontal passage on Tuesday. This will bring the next
chances for showers and thunderstorms to our area. The model
consensus guidance is suggesting the next chances begin Tuesday, but
chances are small with the best forcing in Canada.

After the cold front and upper level trough passage, cooler
conditions will return to our area by mid-week, with highs in the
70s and lows in the 40s and 50s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 1219 PM CDT Fri Aug 19 2016

Light rain will continue at KBIS through 00-01 UTC. However,
conditions are expected to remain VFR. MVFR ceilings are possible
at KISN/KMOT/KDIK this afternoon, becoming VFR this evening. MVFR
ceilings may develop at KJMS late tonight into Saturday morning.


&&

.BIS Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...JV
AVIATION...AYD



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