Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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FXUS63 KBIS 141520
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
920 AM CST Sat Jan 14 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 918 AM CST Sat Jan 14 2017

Updated latest sensible weather elements and blended to the going
forecast. No other changes needed.

UPDATE Issued at 627 AM CST Sat Jan 14 2017

Quiet and sunny will be the weather story for the day. KBIS 12z
balloon sounding shows a very deep warm layer of near 0 degrees C
around 870 mb. This could be a hint of what`s to come regarding
warmer temperatures in the next few days. No updates were needed
with the latest package. Just blended the latest observations with
the going forecast.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 327 AM CST Sat Jan 14 2017

Warmer conditions will be the main forecast highlight in the
short term period.

Currently...an upper level cutoff low was off the coast of Baja
California, with a ridge over the Canadian Rockies. This results in
weak west/northwest flow over the Northern Plains and northern US
Rockies. A weak surface cold front/trough moved southeast across
northern and eastern ND late Friday night.

A mild westerly flow at mid levels and southwesterly flow at lower
levels today will set up for more warm advection from the southwest,
expanding north and east across the state today. We should see
plenty of sunshine and southwest winds of 5 to 10 mph. After morning
lows in the zero to 10 below range, we should see a nice recovery
with temperatures reaching into the teens along, north and east of
the Missouri River...and reaching into the low to mid 20s mainly
south and west of the river.

Tonight a shortwave in the upper level flow will move southeast
across our area and bring a brief shot of cold advection. Looking at
lows tonight from zero to 5 above.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 327 AM CST Sat Jan 14 2017

Moderating temperatures and dry conditions through the middle of
next week continue to highlight the extended forecast. Active
weather may return towards the end of next week.

On Sunday, the main belt of the westerlies is established over
southern Canada and along the International border. A shortwave in
this flow dives southeast out of the Canadian Rockies and approaches
ND Sunday night. This will allow warm advection to continue across
ND ahead of this system. Look for highs Sunday to reach the lower
20s north and east of the Missouri River, and the mid and upper 20s
to the south and west.

On Monday the upper level shortwave continues moving southeast and
across ND with an associated surface cold front. Look for northwest
winds of 15 to 20 mph Monday. Luckily the source of colder air is
from the northern Pacific rather than arctic in origin. We should
still see temperatures in the 20s across all of western and central
ND on Monday.

The upper level shortwave continues eastward towards the Great
Lakes area Tuesday...with an upper level ridge building over the
Front Range and western Plains behind it. This will keep dry
conditions and bring stronger warm advection into the Northern
Plains Wednesday and Thursday. Widespread high temperatures in the
30s are forecast.

Meanwhile the models develop a large upper level low/trough over the
west coast by Thursday...and expand it east across the
Rockies Friday and into the central part of North America next
weekend. The models are not in agreement regarding the evolution of
this large system. Also, this latest run of the models does not look
consistent with previous model runs. Confidence is low regarding the
forecast towards the end of next week. The model consensus brings
the first mention of a chance of rain or snow Thursday night, with
chances of precipitation Friday and into next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 918 AM CST Sat Jan 14 2017

VFR conditions and generally light winds are expected through the
forecast period.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TWH
SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...JV
AVIATION...TWH



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