Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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FXUS63 KBIS 131735 AAA
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
1235 PM CDT Fri Oct 13 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1230 PM CDT Fri Oct 13 2017

Main focus of this update is adjusting sky and PoP coverage
as embedded impulses in southwest flow aloft have increased a few
high based showers across the northwest and central portions of
the state. Increased winds in the southwest as well, just west of
the Missouri River, where hi-res guidance shows increased 850mb
southerly flow over the area bringing a potential for 20-25 kt
wind gusts this afternoon.


UPDATE Issued at 631 AM CDT Fri Oct 13 2017

A quiet and cold morning continues across the area, with most
locations dipping into the 20s. For early morning update, only
change was to adjust cloud cover a bit to line up with current
conditions.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 333 AM CDT Fri Oct 13 2017

Current surface analysis places low over northeast Manitoba, with
secondary low over western Kansas. High pressure remains over the
northern plains in the wake of the cold front that passed through
the region yesterday. Upper level analysis places low over
Manitoba, while a trough pushes through the western CONUS.
Southwest flow remains over our area.

For today, aforementioned upper trough passes over the Rockies as
a lee side low develops and gradually deepens over southeast
Montana before dropping southward over eastern Wyoming tonight.
The day will be relatively quiet, but as the trough approaches,
forcing will be on the increase overnight, primarily over
northern areas. Precipitation that does develop should start out
as rain, but a transition towards some light snow will be possible
late evening, overnight spreading into the area from the north as
cooler air works into the system.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 333 AM CDT Fri Oct 13 2017

On Saturday, wave continues shifting towards the east with the
primary focus for precipitation shifting towards the central
portions of the state, tapering off towards the west. Snow chances
possible early with the aforementioned cool air in the system,
but should transition towards rain chances with warming
temperatures in the morning. With this all said, accumulations,
if any, should remain very light and melt by later in the day.
Most precipitation should be off to the east by evening, with some
possibly loitering over the James River Valley.

Ridge then builds in the start the upcoming week to bring warming
temperatures and dry conditions, which should remain through mid-
week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 1230 PM CDT Fri Oct 13 2017

A warm front had developed late this morning across southwestern
North Dakota, with southerly winds in the southwest (KDIK and KHEI)
and east/northeast winds north and east of the warm front. A cold
front will move into northwestern ND this evening and into central
ND later tonight. The cold front will not push through KJMS until
Saturday afternoon.

Sct/bkn mid level clouds had already spread across western and were
moving across central ND. Some light scattered showers had also
developed behind the warm front as it advances north/northeastward
across the state and have added a mention of VCSH to KISN and
KMOT this afternoon. Expecting a rain/snow mix across northern ND
tonight, and will keep the mention of VCSH at KISN and KMOT through
tonight. Better chances of rain at KJMS after 12z Saturday. Brisk
northwest winds Saturday southwestern and central ND TAFS behind the
cold front.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...AE
SHORT TERM...JJS
LONG TERM...JJS
AVIATION...JV



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