Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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734
FXUS63 KBIS 052023
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
223 PM CST Mon Dec 5 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 223 PM CST Mon Dec 5 2016

We`ve received several reports of poor visibilities and hazardous
driving conditions in west/southwest areas...so western counties
have been added to the Winter Weather advisory.

We are currently evaluating the need for Blizzard headlines for
today and Tuesday.

UPDATE Issued at 1201 PM CST Mon Dec 5 2016

POPs were updated with the latest radar trends and the 16Z
RAP/HRRR, which are doing well at capturing the latest snowfall
trends. Snowfall forecasts amounts have increased slightly.

Headlines may need to be adjusted with the afternoon package.

UPDATE Issued at 823 AM CST Mon Dec 5 2016

Per trends in radar observations and the 12-13 UTC HRRR/RAP and 12
UTC NAM, expanded the Winter Weather Advisory into Morton, Grant
and Sioux counties for snow and blowing snow. An expansion of the
Winter Storm Warning into Stutsman county may be possible later
this morning based upon trends in the aforementioned guidance
sources. However, will evaluate this decision when more of the 12
UTC runs are available.

UPDATE Issued at 635 AM CST Mon Dec 5 2016

Snow has developed over northern North Dakota, and over southern
areas of North Dakota as initial wave wrapping around upper low
pushes through the area. For morning update have pushed morning
precipitation chances towards latest HRRR since it seemed to have
a grasp on the activity to the south. Have also continued patchy
fog for a couple hours over the far north central where it
continues to linger, but expect this to dissipate soon as snow
develops. Updates have been sent.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tuesday)
Issued at 337 AM CST Mon Dec 5 2016

A lot can change in a few hours across the Northern Plains. Models
have finally come into agreement with respect to Monday and
Tuesday`s storm. Unfortunately (or fortunately...depending who you
are) they agree that there will be rather stout snowfall amounts
for portions of central and northern North Dakota.

A negatively tilted trough will deepen over North Dakota this
afternoon and a strong cold front will swing through late this
morning. This will be the focus for snowfall today. General model
consensus shifts the track further south than previously expected
and brings between 2 and 10 inches of snow north and east of the
Missouri River. Two main areas of snow are expected. The first one
will be across northern North Dakota...generally along and north
of Highway 2. The second will be across central North
Dakota...generally along and east of Highway 83. The heaviest
snow...6 to 10 inches...is expected across the northern James
Valley and Turtle Mountains. This is where the low pressure center
is expected to pivot and bring wrap around moisture overnight
Monday and into Tuesday morning.

Strong cold air advection will push in behind the cold front
today. Temperatures will drop sharply and wind speeds will
increase. This will likely lead to blowing snow across the
area today. Locations with snowpack may experience brief periods
of reduced visibility, but it`s the locations that experience
additional snowfall today that will likely deal with more
significant blowing snow and minimal visibilities. Winds around
30 mph can be expected through Tuesday. These winds and bitterly
cold temperatures will combine to create wind chills around 20
below.

There is some uncertainty with respect to snow amounts and
impacts across the southern James Valley today. The high-res
models want to bring in a band of moderate snow just east of
Bismarck and pivot it up through Jamestown. If this verifies it
could produce more snow than currently forecast and may warrant an
upgrade. However, this is a very recent development and hasn`t
been captured by anything other than the most recent runs of the
HRRR and RAP.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 337 AM CST Mon Dec 5 2016

Bitterly cold temperatures will continue Wednesday through
Friday. Wind chills will persistently be around 10 to 20 below.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday morning)
Issued at 823 AM CST Mon Dec 5 2016

MVFR to IFR cigs with areas of IFR vis in snow will continue to
spread through the area today and remain into tonight. Gusty
northwest winds will develop behind a cold front resulting in
areas of blowing snow.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Weather Advisory until noon CST /11 AM MST/ Tuesday for
NDZ001>003-009>011-017>022-031>037-040>042-045>047-050.

Winter Storm Warning until 6 PM CST Tuesday for NDZ004-005-012-
013-023-025.

&&

$$

UPDATE...AC
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...AYD



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