Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS63 KBIS 250922
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
322 AM CST WED FEB 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)

ISSUED AT 321 AM CST WED FEB 25 2015

FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE ONGOING
LIGHT SNOW THIS MORNING...THEN COLD WIND CHILLS FOR TONIGHT.

CURRENTLY...NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH EMBEDDED S/WV IMPULSES
PUSHING SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION. STRONG EASTERLY OVERRUNNING FLOW
CONTINUES TO THE EAST/NORTHEAST OF A SURFACE LOW MOVING SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST TOWARDS/INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THERMAL
UPGLIDE...COUPLED WITH THE MID LEVEL ENERGY AND CONTINUED
DIVERGENT FLOW ALOFT IN THE WAKE OF A DEPARTING UPPER JET
STREAK...CONTINUES TO RESULT IN WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW ACROSS MUCH
IF NOT ALL OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA EARLY THIS MORNING.

A FEW BREAKS IN THE MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUD DECK RESULTED IN SOME
LIGHT FREEZING RAIN/DRIZZLE REPORTS EARLIER. WILL KEEP THIS
MENTION THROUGH MID MORNING (AROUND 15Z) BASED ON NAM/GFS RH
PROFILES AND TIME HEIGHT CROSS-SECTIONS. LATEST SPC MESOANALYSIS
AND IR SAT IMAGERY ALSO STILL HINT AT THIS AS WELL.

FORCING DECREASES FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THIS MORNING AS SUPPORT
ALOFT PUSHES FARTHER SOUTH AND AS A STRONG SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS
ACROSS THE CENTRAL DAKOTAS. THIS WILL RESULT IN SNOW CHANCES
QUICKLY ENDING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGH THIS MORNING ALONG
WITH A CLEARING SKY. LINGERING LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLE INTO THE
AFTERNOON SOUTHWEST WHERE LOW LEVEL FORCING MAY LINGER PAST 18Z.
ROBUST CAA WILL SEE TEMPERATURES DROPPING NOW INTO THE AFTERNOON.
AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM ZERO NORTHEAST (TURTLE MOUNTAINS)
TO THE TEENS ABOVE SOUTHWEST.

CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY TONIGHT. RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD SOUTH
INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS SO EXPECT PRESSURE RISES TO GENERATE A
STEADY NORTH/NORTHWEST WIND OF 7-12KTS THROUGH MUCH OF TONIGHT.
COMBINED WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING TO AROUND 20 BELOW NORTH AND
AROUND 10 BELOW SOUTH...WIND CHILLS IN THE 30S BELOW WILL BE
COMMON INTO THURSDAY MORNING. THUS WILL HOIST A WIND CHILL
ADVISORY FOR ALL OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL ND BEGINNING THIS EVENING
AND LASTING THROUGH THURSDAY AM. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A
FEW 40 BELOW READINGS BUT THIS IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE WIDESPREAD AT
THIS TIME SO FEEL AN ADVISORY IS BEST. DAY CREW WILL WANT TO TAKE
ANOTHER LOOK.


.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 AM CST WED FEB 25 2015

THE IMPACTS OF TWO ARCTIC AIRMASSES HIGHLIGHT THE EXTENDED FORECAST.

THE 00 UTC DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE SUITES ARE IN AGREEMENT ON A
MEAN CENTRAL AND EASTERN CONUS LONGWAVE TROUGH THROUGH THE
EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD. THIS PLACES THE NORTHERN PLAINS UNDER
CYCLONIC NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...AND SUPPORTS THE TRANSPORT OF
ARCTIC AIR INTO THE MID LATITUDES. THE FIRST OF TWO ARCTIC
AIRMASSES IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE REGION THURSDAY INTO
SUNDAY...WITH THE SECOND POTENTIAL ARRIVAL OF ARCTIC AIR TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY. DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS ARE POSSIBLE WITH EACH
EVENT. GIVEN THE MOISTURE LACKING NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT EXPECTED TO
BE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE EXTENDED...THE FORECAST IS DRY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)

ISSUED AT 321 AM CST WED FEB 25 2015

MVFR WITH POCKETS OF IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED EARLY THIS MORNING
OVER WEST AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA UNDER LOW CLOUDS AND WITH
PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW AND FOG. EXPECT SKIES TO BECOME VFR AT ALL
TAF SITES BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE DAKOTAS.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 6 PM CST /5 PM MST/ THIS EVENING TO
NOON CST /11 AM MST/ THURSDAY FOR NDZ001>005-009>013-017>023-025-
031>037-040>048-050-051.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...NH
LONG TERM...AYD
AVIATION...NH








USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.