Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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FXUS63 KBIS 132133

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
333 PM CST Sat Jan 13 2018

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday)

Issued at 330 PM CST Sat Jan 13 2018

Forecast highlights in the short term period will be a brief
period of `milder` weather tonight into tomorrow, followed by
another Arctic cold frontal passage on Sunday.

Currently, northwest flow remains over the Northern Plains, with
surface high pressure off to our southeast and a weak area of low
pressure just off to our southwest. A weak embedded S/WV moving
southeast over eastern Montana/southwestern North Dakota/western
South Dakota bringing an area of low clouds and light snow to my
southwest counties this afternoon near the sfc low. The low
clouds will move into south central ND momentarily for several
hours tonight as noted via sat imagery and high res boundary layer

The light snow southwest will be to our south by around 00Z as the
mid level wave continues to track southeast across the Dakotas.
Mid level WAA and a steady westerly wind at 5-15 MPH will keep
temperatures steady to rising west and only cooling slightly over
my east. Cloud cover will also help keep lows overnight (teens
above southwest to near -10 Turtle Mtns) relatively mild compared
to the past couple of mornings which saw widespread -20s and a
handful of -30s.

Strong embedded S/WV will pivot around a large upper level low
near the Hudson Bay, moving south-southeast across the southern
Canadian prairie provinces tonight then across the Northern Plains
on Sunday. This will drive another Arctic cold front through the
region, resulting in gusty northwest winds and falling
temperatures Sunday afternoon. Our daytime highs will likely be
reached in the morning or early aft. Ahead of the wave will
advance a large area of low stratus and light snow showers,
developing across the north 10-14Z, then rapidly moving south
during the daytime. Clearing expected from north to south Sunday
aft/eve as the Arctic surface high starts to build southward into
North Dakota. Do not anticipate headlines for Sunday as any
accumulating snow looks to remain to our west and east and peak
winds within the mixed layer only top out at 30KTs. Also at this
time it appears the period where we will see the combination of
snow/patchy blowing snow/gusty winds on the leading edge of the
cold front/pressure rises will be relatively short. Will let
evening/mid crew decide on a Special Weather Statement, but we did
highlight elsewhere in our other products and social media.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday)

Issued at 330 PM CST Sat Jan 13 2018

Strong CAA behind Sunday`s cold FROPA will usher in another Arctic
airmass Sunday night through Tuesday morning, where wind chill
headlines will likely be needed. After Tuesday, it is becoming
increasingly likely we will have a strong warming trend as ridging
builds into the region mid-week followed by a quasi-zonal flow.
Widespread highs in the 30s are forecast Thursday-Friday and would
not be surprised to see these temperatures increased with some 40s
also possible.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)

Issued at 1205 PM CST Sat Jan 13 2018

VFR conditions to begin the 18Z period for all but KDIK. MVFR-IFR
clouds southwest will start to spread east into south central
North Dakota today, into KBIS around 22z-01z. Models trending VFR
for most of tonight most terminals.

Arctic cold front will then push south across North Dakota late
tonight into Sunday, bringing gusty northwest winds, light snow,
and lowering CIGS to MVFR and possibly pockets of IFR.




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