Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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FXUS63 KBIS 190544

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
1244 AM CDT Sun Mar 19 2017


Issued at 1244 AM CDT Sun Mar 19 2017

Quiet weather continues as breezy southerly winds continue to
bring a mild night. Updates have been sent.

UPDATE Issued at 936 PM CDT Sat Mar 18 2017

Warm front will move through the area tonight. Did lower
temperatures a little as observations, especially east are at or
near forecast lows. Didn`t drop them too much as think we will see
steady or slowly rising temperatures. Always a few protected areas
that will drop lower than expected while breezy areas fail to
drop. Otherwise no significant changes to the going forecast.
Updated products will be sent shortly.

UPDATE Issued at 617 PM CDT Sat Mar 18 2017

No significant changes to the going forecast. Warm front will move
across the area tonight with warmer lows expected, especially
south and west. Will need to monitor the snow covered northeast
also. If winds drop off here, may need to drop temperatures a bit.
Made some minor adjustments to sky cover. updated latest sensible
weather elements and interpolated to mid evening temperatures.


.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 204 PM CDT Sat Mar 18 2017

Mild and quiet weather highlights the short term.

A warm front across eastern Montana this afternoon will propagate
east across North Dakota tonight and occlude. While very mild air
resides above the surface in the 900-700 mb layer across much of
the area this afternoon, realization of this warm air at the
surface has been difficult with unfavorable mixing via south-
southeasterly surface flow. Thus, expect widespread 30s and 40s
central for highs, with the warmest readings in the upper 50s and
lower 60s relegated to the southwest where higher terrain will
aid warming potential at the surface.

A mild overnight is favored tonight given the warm airmass and
increased mixing with the passage of the aforementioned front
with widespread lows above freezing. Despite cold air advection,
most of western and central North Dakota outside of the far
southwest may actually see warmer temperatures on Sunday compared
to Saturday thanks to greater mixing. Given good agreement, a
blend of the 12 UTC global and the 14-16 UTC high resolution
suites were used for most fields.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday)
Issued at 204 PM CDT Sat Mar 18 2017

A generally progressive pattern highlights the extended forecast.

The 12 UTC global suites are in agreement on a dry shortwave to
propagate across the Northern Plains on Monday with cyclonic
northwest flow aloft in its wake on Tuesday. This supports a
brief period of cooler, yet still near normal values, with
widespread highs in the 30s by Tuesday. Thereafter, progressive
ridging is forecast to build back into the region by mid week,
favoring a return to above normal temperatures. This ridge may
propagate downstream of the region to be across the Mississippi
Valley by late week. This would place the Northern Plains under
southwest flow aloft with an increasing potential for more active
weather in regards to precipitation.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)

Issued at 1244 AM CDT Sun Mar 19 2017

A warm front will move east across the forecast area tonight.
Partly to mostly cloudy VFR conditions with CIGS above 10K FT AGL
expected all terminals through Sunday afternoon. Southerly flow
tonight will shift to northwest on Sunday. Low level wind shear
all terminals before this wind shift now through 12-18Z.


Issued at 936 PM CDT Sat Mar 18 2017

Knife River near manning continues to hold near actions stage this
evening. Will continue to monitor but with little snow remaining
in the basin per visible satellite imagery earlier today, still
think runoff will not be enough to increase the stage much

Notable, but, within bank rises have been observed through today
across the western fringes of the thinning snowpack as viewed on
visible satellite this afternoon, including the upper portions of
the Knife basin and the Little Muddy Creek near Williston. As has
been the trend thus far, these Missouri River tributaries run out
of snow to melt to sustain enough runoff to result in river or
creek flow that is concerning. This is the case on the Knife
River near Manning which has approached action stage this
afternoon, but, has seen its rate of rise slow significantly. Will
still be vigilant as many waterways still have ice which could
locally jam and affect flow.




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