Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS63 KBIS 242042
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
342 PM CDT TUE MAR 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 PM CDT TUE MAR 24 2015

LOW PRESSURE NEAR BISMARCK AT 20 UTC WILL TRACK NORTHEAST NEAR
DEVILS LAKE BY MID EVENING AND TO FAR NORTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA AFTER
MIDNIGHT. THE RISK OF FREEZING RAIN HAS ENDED...WITH RAIN/SNOW
EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND MAINLY SNOW
TONIGHT.

STRONG WINDS CONTINUE OVER SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA ON THE BACK SIDE
OF THE SYSTEM...EXPECTED TO DIMINISH BY THIS EVENING AS THE
STRONGEST GRADIENT MOVES INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. COULD BE A FEW
HOURS OF NEAR ADVISORY CRITERIA IN THE CENTRAL LATE AFTERNOON TO
EARLY EVENING...BUT AS MIXING LAYER SHRINKS THIS EVENING THINK
GUSTINESS WILL DIMINISH. IT WILL REMAIN BREEZY TO WINDY THROUGH
THE NIGHT...WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS MOVING INTO THE JAMES RIVER
VALLEY TO THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING. WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS ALOFT AND FALL RISE COUPLET HERE
ARRIVING AT THE DIURNAL MINIMUM FOR WINDS...HAVE HELD OFF ON
ISSUING AN ADVISORY. WILL BE MARGINAL THOUGH AND EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT SHIFT CAN CONTINUE TO MONITOR.

SNOW IS TAPERING OFF OVER FAR WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND WE HAVE
CANCELLED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR DIVIDE AND WILLIAMS
COUNTIES. SNOW CONTINUES ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THE
SNOW IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTH AND EAST TONIGHT. REPORTS SO FAR OF
1 TO 2 INCHES FROM AROUND WILLISTON TO STANLEY THIS AFTERNOON.
ANOTHER INCH OR TWO IS POSSIBLE FROM AROUND STANLEY TO KENMAR AND
SHERWOOD EAST THROUGH MINOT AND BOTTINEAU...RUGBY AND BELCOURT.
TOTAL SNOW AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES MAY BE REALIZED IN A FEW
LOCAL AREAS OF THE FAR NORTH CENTRAL...BUT EXPECT MOST AREAS TO BE
IN THE 1 TO 3 INCH RANGE. EXCEPT FOR THE NORTHWEST COUNTIES
MENTIONED ABOVE...WILL CONTINUE THE CURRENT ADVISORY OVER THE FAR
NORTH CENTRAL. MAIN THREATS WILL BE SLIPPERY ROADS AND REDUCED
VISIBILITIES IN SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW.

SNOW WILL TAPER OFF ACROSS THE FAR NORTH CENTRAL AND EAST CENTRAL
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE EXPECT A DRY BUT BREEZY TO
WINDY AND SEASONABLY COLD DAY WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 30S.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 PM CDT TUE MAR 24 2015

THE EARLY PORTION OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY...WILL FEATURE A 500MB RIDGE OVER THE WEST COAST THAT WILL
STRENGTHEN AND EXPAND EAST INTO THE ROCKIES.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT:
THIS WEST COAST RIDGE WILL KEEP A NORTHWEST FLOW OVER NORTH DAKOTA
AND ALLOW SOME UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE ENERGY IMPULSES TO MOVE
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE FLOW. THIS UPPER LEVEL INSTABILITY WILL
ENHANCE SOME LOW LEVEL LIFTING OVER FAR WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT - ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN DAKOTAS. COOL WITH HIGHS IN
THE 30S AND 40S ACROSS THE REGION.

FRIDAY:
AS THE LARGE-SCALE RIDGE BUILDS AND EXPANDS...IT WILL PUSH A
STRONGER UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE EASTWARD ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA
ACCOMPANIED BY A WARM FRONT. CHANCES OF MAINLY LIGHT SNOW ALONG AND
AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT...CHANGING TO RAIN BEHIND IT. LOOK FOR HIGHS
FROM THE 30S IN THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS AND JAMES VALLEY TO THE 50S IN
THE WEST.

SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY:
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BREAKS DOWN SATURDAY...BUT A WARM DAY AHEAD OF
A SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT SHOULD MOVE ACROSS THE STATE
SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGHS SATURDAY IN THE 50S AND 60S.
PACIFIC HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH MILD
CONDITIONS - HIGHS IN THE 50S TO MID 60S SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 100 PM CDT TUE MAR 24 2015

IFR/MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS IN SNOW/FOG WILL CONTINUE AT KISN/KMOT/KDIK
THIS AFTERNOON. SNOW ENDING AT KDIK AND KISN BY AROUND 00Z...AND AT
KMOT BY AROUND 06Z. MVFR CIGS AT KBIS IN -RASN/FOG THIS AFTERNOON.
MVFR/IFR CIGS AND VSBYS CONTINUING AT KISN/KMOT/KDIK/KBIS THROUGH
THE NIGHT. KJMS TO SEE IFR/MVFR CIGS BECOME VFR FOR A TIME THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...THEN BECOME MVFR/IFR BY AROUND 03Z AND
CONTINUING THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS 20-30KTS WILL CONTINUE AT KISN/KDIK THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD. STRONG SOUTHEAST WINDS AT KBIS AT 18Z WILL BECOME
NORTHWESTERLY BY AROUND 21Z AND CONTINUE TONIGHT. STRONG SOUTHEAST
WINDS 20-35 KTS AT KJMS AT 18Z TO BECOME NORTHWEST AROUND 03Z AND
CONTINUE TONIGHT.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR NDZ002>005-
010-011.

WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR NDZ040-041-043-044.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TWH
LONG TERM...JV
AVIATION...JV









USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.