Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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FXUS63 KBIS 191935

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
235 PM CDT Wed Oct 19 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)

Issued at 235 PM CDT Wed Oct 19 2016

No forecast highlights in the short term period.

Currently, models have not performed very well at all with low
level stratus today across west and central ND. While an area from
Mountrail County southeast through the southern James River Valley
has scattered out/cleared, all other areas remain overcast. Will
based sky cover forecast for the next several hours on current
satellite and then blend to high res guidance. Models indicate a
bkn sky cover tonight though right now thinking low VFR.

Will keep showers in the forecast southwest this afternoon and
evening with Bowman radar indicating decent returns there at the

Much warmer Thursday with more sun expected and weak WAA as we
remain in a cyclonic flow pattern until Friday.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)

Issued at 235 PM CDT Wed Oct 19 2016

A mid level S/WV trough moving through the Northern Plains will
bring a chance for rain showers to the region Thursday night into
Friday morning. Thereafter a building upper level ridge will
result in a mainly dry weather pattern over the weekend and
through early next week along with a nice moderation in
temperatures, with highs in the 50s & 60s this weekend. Ridge
will then shift east next Monday night transitioning our flow
aloft to southwesterly with increasing chances for precipitation
early to mid week.

Towards the end of next week an increasingly active weather
pattern will eventually bring in cooler temperatures once again.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)

Issued at 1150 AM CDT Wed Oct 19 2016

MVFR and IFR ceilings are expected to prevail through much of the
18Z TAF period. A brief clearing to VFR ceilings may occur this
afternoon at KMOT, KBIS, and KJMS. However, ceilings are expected
to decrease to MVFR and IFR conditions again tonight at each of
the TAF sites.





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