Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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FXUS63 KBIS 130903 CCA
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
303 AM CST Mon Nov 13 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 302 AM CST Mon Nov 13 2017

For the near term period/early this morning, the dense fog advisory
across northwest and north central is the weather highlight. For
today and tonight, dry/tranquil conditions will persist. Expect
high temperatures around average for this time of year across
northern ND, and above average southwest and south central. Aside
from the clouds and fog northwest and north central through the
morning hours, expect plenty of sunshine elsewhere from mid
morning through the afternoon.

Latest suite of webcams, surface observations, and satellite imagery,
still shows dense fog far northwest and far north central. Conditions
have improved over Bottineau and McHenry counties, thus will remove
these from the dense fog advisory. Will keep the remaining counties
in the far northwest and parts of north central, while extending
the advisory until 18z/noon CST Monday.

Latest water vapor imagery shows a zonal flow into western/central
ND. BUFKIT soundings and model data indicate low level warm air
advection continuing today. 925mb temperatures compared to Sunday
afternoon are a few degrees Celsius warmer across the southwest
and into portions of south central. Hence, have leaned more toward
a MAV solution which seemed to capture the expected temperature
rise from what was observed Sunday afternoon. Overall it will be
milder today than Sunday. Once the low clouds begin to erode
early this afternoon in the north, temperatures will rise to near
average for this time of year. It should be noted that there
appears to be a pocket of clouds/shallow layer of high boundary
layer moisture that remains trapped across the Tioga, Stanley and
north into the Sherwood region this afternoon. Clouds here may not
decrease all the way, and thus have kept the sky grid coverage a
bit higher in this area for the afternoon hours.

As far as temperatures, the southwest and south central will be
well above average, not record setting, but 10 to 15 degrees above
normal for this time of year. Highs will be in the lower 30s north,
to upper 50s southwest, and around 50 south central.

For tonight, soundings and high resolution models continue to
hint at a continued shallow layer of boundary layer moisture
across the north, as mentioned above. Have increased sky grids to
account for this. Low level winds will veer from south to west
overnight as warm air advection continues. Overnight lows will be
in the 20s.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 302 AM CST Mon Nov 13 2017

Two cold fronts will push across western/central ND in the long
term period. Temperatures will begin mild, then quickly drop
behind each cold front.

Tuesday will be the mildest day of the long term period, with the
warmest readings across the south where the warmest 925mb
temperatures will reside. Highs Tuesday will range from the upper
30s north, to the mid 50s south. Westerly winds will gradually
shift to northwest Tuesday evening/night as a cold front sweeps
through. The cold front will enter northwest ND by late afternoon,
then quickly progress southeast in the evening/overnight period.
The cold front will come through dry, but brisk northwest winds of
20 to 30 mph will accompany the front as it transitions through.
Behind the cold front, much colder air, resulting highs on
Wednesday to range from the lower 20s north to the upper 30s
southwest.

Warm air advection resumes Wednesday evening/night as a mid/upper
level transitory ridge slides to our east. Southeast winds
increase Thursday as temperatures rebound briefly into the upper
30s and lower 40s, with even some lower 50s in the southwest.
Another cold front quickly pushes from northwest to southeast
Thursday night with some spotty light showers along the front.
Brisk and colder Friday with highs in the mid 20s north to upper
30s south.

For the weekend, dry weather prevails with a northwest flow aloft.
Cold Saturday with highs in the upper teens north, to lower 30s
southwest. A slow moderating trend commences Sunday into Monday,
with highs returning into the 30s to mid 40s Monday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
Issued at 302 AM CST Mon Nov 13 2017

Vlifr cigs/vsbys forecast for KISN/KMOT until 14z-15z Monday.
Thereafter, a gradual return to vfr conditions expected at KISN by
18z. MVFR to IFR cigs may linger into the afternoon at KMOT.
Elsewhere, light winds and vfr cigs/vsbys this Taf period.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Dense Fog Advisory until noon CST today for NDZ001>003-009>011.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...KS
AVIATION...TWH



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