Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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FXUS63 KBIS 181755

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
1255 PM CDT Tue Jul 18 2017

Issued at 1250 PM CDT Tue Jul 18 2017

Slight adjustments were made to POPs and sky cover. No other
changes were made.

UPDATE Issued at 1025 AM CDT Tue Jul 18 2017

POPS were added to the southwest to reflect the latest radar
trends. No other changes were made.

UPDATE Issued at 1000 AM CDT Tue Jul 18 2017

Broad area of precipitation has pushed off the the southeast, with
some showers lingering over our area. Further west, a few little
showers have developed with a thunderstorm over the far southwest.
Adjusted precipitation chances to reflect current activity, with
almost all areas drying out by later today.

UPDATE Issued at 646 AM CDT Tue Jul 18 2017

Convection through 1145 UTC continues to now focus into the
Sheyenne and Red River Valleys. One more round of showers and
possibly a few thunderstorms is forecast across the southwest and
south central this morning in a zone of PWATs greater than 1 inch
interacting with a mid level impulse.


.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 420 AM CDT Tue Jul 18 2017

A large area of showers and storms continues to push east across
the southern part of the forecast area early this Tuesday
morning, right on track with the CAMS and as expected in an area
of low level convergence, mid level lifting in positive vorticity
advection, and upper level diffluence. Storms were supported by
weak to moderate shear and 1500-2000 J/KG CAPE.

Ongoing convection is on track to exit the area (Jamestown) by 9
AM or so. However, other convection was across southeast Montana
and also pushing east. This is expected to hold together, although
not be as strong in the wake of previous convection resulting in a
less unstable boundary layer.

For tonight the right rear quadrant of an exiting jet is forecast
over the northwest part of the state along with weak mid level
lifting for at least some chance of showers and storms there.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 420 AM CDT Tue Jul 18 2017

Unsettled best describes Wednesday through Friday with chances for
storms through the period, especially Wednesday with a quite
rigorous mid level wave, and again Thursday night through Friday
night with a trough passing through the mean ridge.

The weekend looks dry as the mean ridge amplifies through the
Northern Plains.

Temperatures mainly in the 80s though some 70s northeast and into
the 90s southwest.

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday morning)
Issued at 420 AM CDT Tue Jul 18 2017

Thunderstorms around KJMS as of this writing were moving east and
will be out of the area by 18/1300Z. Other showers and isolated
-TSRA will continue moving through southern North Dakota until
18/1600Z. VFR KDIK-KISN-KMOT. Isolated storms are possible
in northwest North Dakota after 19/0000Z.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 1250 PM CDT Tue Jul 18 2017

Isolated thunderstorms possible this afternoon over far southwest
North Dakota. Isolated thunderstorms possible this evening over
far western North Dakota, spreading east Wednesday morning and
increasing in coverage. Otherwise, VFR conditions expected.




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