Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS63 KBIS 190556
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1256 AM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1231 AM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

OUT OF RESPECT FOR THE NAM...WHICH WAS UPGRADED LAST WEEK...AND
THE HIRES ARW...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WERE EXPANDED
ON TUESDAY EVENING/NIGHT. THE MAIN FOCUS TONIGHT WILL BE ON
POSSIBLE FOG DEVELOPMENT THIS MORNING ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR RAINFALL ON ALREADY SATURATED SOILS TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 935 PM CDT MON AUG 18 2014

NO SIGNIFICANT UPDATES THIS EVENING. PRECIPITATION HAS ALL BUT
ENDED OVER EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA...THUS CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE AFTER MIDNIGHT.
CURRENT FORECAST LOWS IN THE 50S LOOK REASONABLE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 638 PM CDT MON AUG 18 2014

ISOLATED THUNDERSHOWERS CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE ACROSS EASTERN
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. HAVE REMOVED ALL EVENING POPS
EXCEPT FOR JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE FAR EAST THROUGH 9 PM. OTHERWISE
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS. PREVIOUS FORECAST HAD
A MENTION OF PATCHY FOG AFTER MIDNIGHT...WHICH LOOKS GOOD.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 PM CDT MON AUG 18 2014

DIURNAL CONVECTION THROUGH SUNSET THIS EVENING AND FOG TONIGHT
HIGHLIGHT THE SHORT TERM.

DIURNAL SCATTERED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN FOCUSED ACROSS
THE SOUTH CENTRAL AND JAMES RIVER VALLEY GIVEN RADAR AND SATELLITE
TRENDS THROUGH 1930 UTC...AND THE 16-17 UTC HRRR ITERATIONS.
MODEST INSTABILITY AND WEAK SHEAR ARE EXPECTED TO KEEP STORMS
BELOW SEVERE LIMITS. HOWEVER...THE NON SUPERCELL TORNADO OR
LANDSPOUT PARAMETER HAS A LOCAL MAXIMA ACROSS THE JAMES RIVER
VALLEY INTO THE SOUTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY WITH STEEP LOW LEVEL
LAPSE RATES AND ENVIRONMENTAL VORTICITY. THUS...WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED BY A FUNNEL CLOUD REPORT.

FOR TONIGHT...WITH WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE...CLEAR
SKIES...LIGHT WINDS AND PLENTIFUL MOISTURE FROM WEEKEND RAINS...AREAS
OF FOG ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA TONIGHT.

TUESDAY WILL BE THE ONLY DRY DAY IN THE FORECAST UNDER SHORTWAVE
RIDGING BEFORE A RETURN TO AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH THE
EXTENDED.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 PM CDT MON AUG 18 2014

A SLOW MOVING TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE NORTHWEST TERRITORIES WILL
PRODUCE CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FROM WEDNESDAY
INTO THE WEEKEND. CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE EXTENDED...AS UNSETTLED SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW REMAINS OVER THE
AREA.

HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE
STATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...WITH ADDITIONAL RAINFALL THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. WESTERN AND CENTRAL AREAS HAVE ALREADY BEEN SATURATED WITH
ABUNDANT RAINFALL...FLOODING ISSUES REMAIN A CONCERN.

TEMPERATURES WILL NEAR AVERAGE FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. A
COOLER AIRMASS BEGINS MOVING INTO THE AREA BY FRIDAY MORNING...HIGHS
WILL RANGE BETWEEN 10 AND 15 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE THROUGH THE REST
OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1231 AM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

AREAS OF FOG MAY DEVELOP THIS MORNING AND LAST UNTIL 13Z. KJMS HAS
THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR IFR BECAUSE OF RAINFALL THERE ON
MONDAY...SO VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS HELD TO MVFR AT KDIK/KISN WHERE
SOME REDUCTION HAS ALREADY BEEN OBSERVED. THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE AFTER 00Z AT KISN/KMOT/KDIK.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SCHECK
SHORT TERM...AYD
LONG TERM...AC
AVIATION...SCHECK






USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.