Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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FXUS63 KBIS 221914

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
214 PM CDT SUN MAY 22 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 206 PM CDT Sun May 22 2016

Severe thunderstorms highlight the short term period

The latest water vapor imagery shows a closed low circulating
over Alberta with a 100kt jet streak stretched out from northeast
Montana into central Wyoming. This jet streak nudges east into
western North Dakota this evening. This will provide large scale
ascent along a cold frontal boundary, now located from Portal to
Stanley, and south into Hettinger. Dewpoints in the west are in
the lower 40s while in central North Dakota moisture is higher
with dewpoints near 60F. The cold front will slowly move east
tonight, exiting the James River Valley between 09z-12z Monday.

Visible imagery showing stratus eroding which will initiate and
increase low level buoyancy and instability. The HRRR and NAM look
to have a good trend with convection initiation. The most intense
cells begin near Lemmon SD and develop within a corridor between
Dickinson and Bismarck, and narrowing but continuously developing
towards Minot from 4pm-7pm cdt. This consolidates into a line of
thunderstorms that slides into the James River Valley this
evening. Another area of severe and/or heavy rain develops in
south central ND between 7pm and midnight. This is forecast to
move northeast and expand into the James River Valley with heavy
rainfall late evening into the overnight period. Large hail,
damaging winds, and heavy rainfall continue as the main threats
late this afternoon through tonight. Flash flooding possible in
the southern James River Valley late this evening into the
overnight period. More stable air shifts from west to east tonight
ending the precipitation after midnight.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 206 PM CDT Sun May 22 2016

Broad trough over the western CONUS gradually works eastward towards
the plains through the middle and end of the upcoming week. This
will bring active cyclonic flow to the area, though models are
having quite a bit of trouble with timing out individual short waves
within the system. With that said, will keep chances for
precipitation going given the active pattern. Near to slightly above
average temperatures expected.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
Issued at 206 PM CDT Sun May 22 2016

As a cold front moves west to east across the state thunderstorms
are expected to impact KBIS and KJMS, with a lesser chance for
storms at KDIK and KMOT this afternoon and tonight. Isolated storms
are forecast to initiate around 21Z in the west and form into a line
of storms around KBIS. There will be a chance for hail, high winds
and very heavy rain in these storms, especially at KBIS and KDIK.


.BIS Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


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