Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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FXUS63 KBIS 110517
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
1117 PM CST Wed Jan 10 2018

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1117 PM CST Wed Jan 10 2018

Latest water vapor imagery loop shows the upper level trough
now approaching western ND. A weak shortwave was seen over
southeast Alberta and initialized by the 00Z NAM/GFS. This
shortwave will slide into northwestern ND toward 12z Thursday. A
pocket of light snow currently associated with it is forecast to
shrivel up prior to getting into northwest ND, so will keep the
forecast dry.

Will be allowing the winter weather advisory across western ND
expire at Midnight CST as scheduled, and in its place, will issue
a wind chill advisory through 18z Thursday. Remaining headlines
are in good standing and will re-evaluate them throughout the
night.

UPDATE Issued at 927 PM CST Wed Jan 10 2018

Snow is tapering over western ND late this evening. Current radar
shows little if any snow over the far west. Snow does continue to
hang on from Stanley south to Killdeer and Dickinson. Once the
advisory ends in the west will likely need to transition to a wind
chill advisory through the rest of the night and Thursday morning.
Don`t want to cancel now with snow still falling in area mentioned
above. Mesoscale models look to be a little too quick to end snow
in the west, but think by expiration time at midnight central, or
11 PM Mountain, we should be able to drop the current winter
weather advisory.

Otherwise, light snow and periods of moderate snow continue across
central and eastern ND. No plans to update hazards for central ND
this evening.

UPDATE Issued at 628 PM CST Wed Jan 10 2018

Current forecast is in good shape and no significant changes are
needed. 3.5 inches of snowfall at the Bismarck Airport through 6
PM. The NAM/GFS 700MB trough 6H forecast was situated over
Bismarck to around Devils Lake, which is a general rule for the
end of heavy snow. we have certainly seen a decrease in snowfall
intensity west of the highway 83 corridor in the past hour.
However, light snow still extends west to the Montana border, and
winds are expected to remain strong through the evening. As
temperatures continue to fall tonight, expect SnowRatio`s to be
around 20:1 so even though liquid amounts will be lighter another
2-3 inches is possible along and east of the Highway 83 corridor,
with amounts tapering quickly as you head west to the Montana
border. No changes to current headlines. Updated text products
will be sent shortly.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 309 PM CST Wed Jan 10 2018

Current surface analysis places low over Ontario with cold front
dropping down through western Minnesota into southeast South
Dakota. Upper level analysis places trough axis dipping through
central Montana southward towards central New Mexico. Widespread
snow has developed over our area ahead of the upper trough, while
gusty north to northwest winds continue along with falling
temperatures behind the potent cold front.

For the rest of today into tonight...snow will continue to fall
into this evening, and will start to gradually taper off over
western locations into portions of central North Dakota as the
trough axis slides into the area. Latest guidance continues to
suggest the greatest snow amounts stretching east to west through
central North Dakota into the Devils Lake Basin and upper James
River Valley. Blowing snow will continue, though winds will also
gradually be on the decrease from west to east overnight.

On Thursday, remaining snow over parts of central North Dakota
will come to an end. A frigid day is on tap as surface high
settles through the area, with high temperatures remaining below
zero over most locations. A modest fast moving wave zips into the
area overnight, bringing modest snow chances to far western
locations.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 309 PM CST Wed Jan 10 2018

Some snow lingers into Friday, mainly over southern locations,
then ends by evening as the next surface high settles in. A frigid
night is on tap with lows dipping to around 20 below with wind
chills as low as 45 below. The high gradually exits to the east on
Saturday with western locations warming to possibly around 10
above.

A generally cold and unsettled pattern remains going into early
next week with below average temperatures and occasional low snow
chances.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night)
Issued at 1117 PM CST Wed Jan 10 2018

Widespread light snow will end from west to east across western and
central ND as Arctic high pressure builds into the region. To begin
the 06Z TAF period, MVFR visibilities and low VFR to MVFR ceilings.
Improvements will come between 06-09 UTC at KDIK and KISN and 09-12
UTC at KMOT and KBIS and around 15 UTC at KJMS. Mainly VFR
conditions and breezy conditions Thursday. Possible brief
restrictions in BLSN at KJMS. Also with cold high pressure scattered
MVFR ceiling are possible but will not introduce to the TAFS at this
time.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Weather Advisory until 6 AM CST /5 AM MST/ Thursday for
NDZ003>005-011-012-019>022-034>036-042-045-046.

Winter Weather Advisory until midnight CST /11 PM MST/ tonight
for NDZ001-002-009-010-017-018-031>033-040-041-043-044.

Winter Storm Warning until 9 AM CST Thursday for NDZ013-023-025-
037.

Winter Weather Advisory until 9 AM CST Thursday for NDZ047-048-
050-051.

&&

$$

UPDATE...KS
SHORT TERM...JJS
LONG TERM...JJS
AVIATION...TWH



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