Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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FXUS63 KBIS 111700

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
1100 AM CST Mon Dec 11 2017


Issued at 1100 AM CST Mon Dec 11 2017

Expired all wind headlines as winds continue to wind down well
below advisory criteria. Still a bit gusty across my far southwest
and the James River Valley, but below 40 MPH.


Issued at 956 AM CST Mon Dec 11 2017

Trimmed off the southwest and much of the south central from the
wind advisory as winds weaken. Also adjusted POPs to reflect
chances west and dry elsewhere. Temperatures will be steady to
falling through the rest of the day with CAA.

Issued at 735 AM CST Mon Dec 11 2017

Added the southwest to the wind advisory with several obs not in
the advisory gusting at or over 45 MPH across Billings, Bowman,
Slope, and Adams county. Should be short lived as our other areas
south central once gradient forcing relaxes later this morning.

UPDATE Issued at 618 AM CST Mon Dec 11 2017

Allowed the wind advisory to expire at 6 AM CST across the
northwest and north central. Will continue the wind advisory south
central and monitor trends through the morning hours. Updates to
text products forthcoming.


.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 402 AM CST Mon Dec 11 2017

Gusty winds leading to a wind advisory for portions of western and
central North Dakota highlight the near/short term period.

For the near term, the ongoing wind advisory for most of northern
ND will continue until 12z/6AM CST Monday. For south central ND,
the wind advisory continues until noon CST.

Latest water vapor imagery highlights the potent mid/upper low
circulating and shifting into southeast North Dakota early this
morning. Upstream into western Saskatchewan, another shortwave was
observed which will slide south into western ND through the
morning hours. A chance of snow/rain west as this shortwave
traverses through. Latest surface map and ground observations show
strong northwest winds between 30 mph and 35 mph for most of
western and central ND, with gusts to around 50 mph. Surface
analysis shows the 3 hourly pressure change/bubble rise now into
west central Manitoba. The models have handled this well so far,
which will continue to slide into southern Manitoba by 12z, and
western Minnesota by 18z. Advisory level winds continue upstream
into southern Canada, and with boundary layer winds of 30kt
forecast across south central ND through 18z, the wind advisory
will continue through the morning. Winds will diminish this
afternoon, however stratus/overcast clouds extend all the way
north into Saskatchewan this morning. Following the National
Blend of Models, will keep an overcast sky through late afternoon,
with perhaps some clearing in far western ND and portions of the
James River Valley. Highs today will mainly be in the upper 30s to
around 40F west and most of central, but colder from the Turtle
Mountains into the northern James River Valley, with temperatures
into the lower 30s this afternoon.

Warm air advection commences from west to east tonight as a warm
front slides through. Expect mainly cloudy conditions central
with a partly cloudy sky developing west behind the warm front.
Lows tonight will range from the upper teens to lower 20s.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 402 AM CST Mon Dec 11 2017

Overall, the long term is trending more active with time per
GFS/ECMWF. Beyond this long term period, the CIPS analog is
advertising a potentially much colder regime just prior to
Christmas Day, so will need to monitor this in the coming days.

Western and central ND will be in the warm sector Tuesday per
passage of the warm front from the short term period. Highs
Tuesday will range from the lower and mid 30s east central to
around 50F southwest. Expecting plenty of sunshine west, with
decreasing clouds central. Northwesterly upper flow will be
maintained through the long term period. The next in a series of
clipper/cold fronts will pass through the Turtle Mountains late
Tuesday night, and eventually spread cooler air across the rest
of western/central ND Wednesday. However slightly colder air will
be felt Thursday as another fast moving clipper slides through.
the northwest flow. Brisk winds Wednesday and Thursday can be
expected. Some chances for light snow with each clipper, but
accumulations if any, will be minimal. Another brief warmup on
Friday, with periodic chances for rain/snow Friday afternoon
through Sunday as a series of systems continue to traverse into
and across western/central ND.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday morning)
Issued at 618 AM CST Mon Dec 11 2017

MVFR stratus will continue across western and central North Dakota
this morning and afternoon. VFR conditions are forecast to develop
across western North Dakota this evening. However, MVFR stratus
will likely remain across central North Dakota through Monday
night impacting KMOT/KBIS/KJMS. Strong northwest winds with gusts
of 30-40kts will continue early this morning, slowly decreasing
through the late morning and afternoon. Scattered light rain and
snow showers are possible through the day.




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