Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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FXUS63 KBIS 300603

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
103 AM CDT Fri Sep 30 2016


Issued at 103 AM CDT Fri Sep 30 2016

For the early morning forecast issuance, main update was to
increase cloud cover west and central with a large area of BKN-OVC
clouds (via observations and IR satellite imagery) expanding
north and east across western into central ND. Other forecast
elements on track for this morning and into tomorrow.

UPDATE Issued at 930 PM CDT Thu Sep 29 2016

At 930 PM CDT Bowman radar indicated a few showers just southwest
of the state. The forecast is trending ok starting a slight chance
of showers just before midnight southwest. Temperatures and winds
look good. Current forecast trending ok.

UPDATE Issued at 633 PM CDT Thu Sep 29 2016

Surface low pressure across eastern Montana will be the focus for
scattered showers tonight west. Latest HRRR model continues to
show scattered showers southwest after 10 PM CDT. Currently skies
are clear but clouds will soon arrive from WY/MT. So far forecast
is trending well. Will only need to update current conditions.


.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 225 PM CDT Thu Sep 29 2016

Isolated to scattered showers tonight into Friday morning west
into the north central highlights the short term forecast.

The 12 UTC global and the high resolution rapidly updating suites
through 17 UTC are in agreement on a shortwave across Wyoming
this afternoon propagating northeast tonight into western North
Dakota. Isolated to scattered showers are forecast with this wave
across the west and north central tonight into Friday morning.
There is a small chance of a thunderstorm with steep mid level
lapse rates, however, not much lightning has been observed with
this wave thus far across Wyoming this afternoon.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
Issued at 225 PM CDT Thu Sep 29 2016

Increasing precipitation potential early to mid next week
highlights the extended forecast.

The 12 UTC global suites are in general agreement on an upper
level low coming onshore to northern California or Oregon Sunday
potentially propagating into the Central or Northern Plains
Tuesday into Thursday. While there is a spread amongst the
guidance suite in the track of the low, the feature itself is
favored. This system will have to be monitored for potential
widespread precipitation including the slight chance for a few
snowflakes mixing in on the back side of the low Wednesday night
into Thursday morning. Prior to the arrival of the low Sunday
into Monday, there is a chance of showers and thunderstorms with
impulses embedded in southwest flow aloft.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)

Issued at 103 AM CDT Fri Sep 30 2016

VFR conditions will prevail through Friday evening. Southerly flow
will continue, with low-level wind shear expected through about 13
UTC Friday in central ND where surface winds are relatively light
and 35 kt south winds exist as low as 2000 ft AGL. Breezy surface
winds will develop area-wide Friday. Otherwise, a few light showers
will also occur in the west and north central tonight and Friday.





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