Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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FXUS63 KBIS 241752
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1252 PM CDT THU APR 24 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1251 PM CDT THU APR 24 2014

AREAS OF FOG HAVE BURNED OFF OVER THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA.
REMOVED FOG WORDING FROM THE AFFECTED ZONES AS A RESULT.

FURTHERMORE...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
DEVELOPING OVER SOUTHEASTERN SASKATCHEWAN AND SOUTHWESTERN
MANITOBA. THIS ACTIVITY IS MOVING EAST-SOUTHEAST AT ABOUT 15 MPH.
AT ITS CURRENT TRAJECTORY...IT SHOULD ENTER NORTHWESTERN BOTTINEAU
COUNTY BY 3 PM CDT. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR CONVECTIVE TRENDS FOR
ANY FURTHER UPDATES.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1029 AM CDT THU APR 24 2014

AREAS OF FOG WILL CONTINUE TO LINGER OVER ROLETTE COUNTY SOUTHEAST
INTO THE JAMES RIVER BASIN. UPDATED THE FIRST PERIOD WEATHER TO
EXTEND THE AREAS OF FOG FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS OVER THE
AFOREMENTIONED AREAS. FURTHERMORE...DECREASED CLOUD COVER OVER
SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA DURING THE MORNING HOURS BASED ON
CURRENT SATELLITE OBS/TRENDS. ALSO ADJUSTED THE AFTERNOON MAX
TEMPS UP A DEGREE OR TWO GIVEN THE EXPECTED DRY WESTERLY FLOW AND
ASSOCIATED WARM AIR ADVECTION.

THE REMAINING FORECAST ELEMENTS ARE IN GOOD SHAPE. THE UPDATED
PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN SENT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 649 AM CDT THU APR 24 2014

MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA WITH A LIGHT
WESTERLY FLOW. AREAS OF MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS EAST OF THE
HIGHWAY 83 CORRIDOR...WITH AREAS OF FOG IN FAR EASTERN PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA FROM THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS INTO THE NORTHERN
JAMES RIVER VALLEY. HAVE ISSUED A NOWCAST FOR AREAS OF DENSE FOG
IN THE EAST. ADJUSTED FOG GRIDS TO AREAS INSTEAD OF PATCHY OVER
THIS AREA. ALSO DROPPED THE MENTION OF FOG WEST AND SOUTH OF THE
MISSOURI RIVER AND LAKE SAKAKAWEA. LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS FROM BRANDON
MB TO REGINA SK...BUT IT SHOULD BE AT LEAST A FEW HOURS BEFORE
ANY DEVELOPMENT IN NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA SO REMOVED POPS IN THE
NORTHWEST THROUGH 15Z.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)

ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT THU APR 24 2014

FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE PATCHY FOG
THIS MORNING FOR ALL BUT THE SOUTHWEST...CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TODAY THROUGH EARLY EVENING NORTH
AND EAST...AND ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WEST INTO SOUTH
CENTRAL (SEE FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION BELOW).

CURRENTLY...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS NEGATIVELY TILTED...ORIENTATED
FROM CENTRAL ALBERTA SOUTHEAST INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.
ASSOCIATED SFC TROUGH AXIS STRETCHED FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ACROSS
THE EASTERN DAKOTAS...THEN BACK NORTHWEST THROUGH SOUTHERN
SASKATCHEWAN. CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY ACROSS MY WEST AND MUCH OF MY
CENTRAL WITH SUBSIDENCE AND MUCH DRYER AIR IN THE DRY SLOT ALONG
TO WEST OF THE UPPER TROUGH. CONTINUED CLOUDY EAST ALONG TO EAST
OF THE SFC TROUGH.

GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS WILL ONCE AGAIN DEVELOP ACROSS THE WEST AND
SOUTH CENTRAL TODAY...WEST OF THE SFC TROUGH. WINDS ALOFT ARE
30KTS OR LESS SO DESPITE SUSTAINED WINDS 20-25 KTS...DO NOT
ANTICIPATE WIND ADVISORY MAGNITUDES AT THIS TIME.

AS THE UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVE SLOWLY EAST THIS MORNING AND
AFTERNOON AND CLOSED OFF...WRAP AROUND MOISTURE WILL GENERATE A
CHANCE OF MORNING SHOWERS OVER NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA...EXPANDING
SOUTH AND EAST IN THE AFTERNOON. COLDER TEMPERATURES ALOFT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW WILL RESULT IN MID TO LATE MORNING
AND AFTERNOON DESTABILIZATION OF THE ATMOSPHERE WITH MODELS
GENERATING SEVERAL HUNDRED JOULES OF CAPE ALONG WITH STEEP LAPSE
RATES MATERIALIZING. THUS WILL MAINTAIN THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
FORECAST...AND HAVE EXPANDED THE AERIAL COVERAGE A BIT WITH
INSTABILITY FORECAST AS FAR SOUTH AS THE I94 CORRIDOR OF SOUTH
CENTRAL ND.

SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW LINGERING THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE INTO
THE EARLY EVENING EAST...WITH PRECIPITATION ENDING AS THE LOW
PUSHES FARTHER EAST. MODELS TRY TO GENERATE ANOTHER AREA OF
PRECIPITATION MOVING INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA OVERNIGHT AS A WEAK
SFC LOW SLIDES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS. KEPT
THINGS DRY WITH THIS FORECAST ISSUANCE WITH TIME HEIGHT CROSS
SECTIONS SHOWING CIGS AT OR ABOVE 10K FEET AGL...AND RATHER WEAK
MID LEVEL FORCING.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 407 AM CDT THU APR 24 2014

THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE AN EXTENDED
PERIOD OF PRECIPITATION FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. MODELS ARE
IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT AND IN GENERAL HAVE BUMPED UP POPS A BIT
WHERE WE COULD.

WE BEGIN THE LONG TERM PERIOD WITH ONE UPPER LOW EXITING THE AREA
AND ANOTHER DEVELOPING OVER THE WESTERN U.S. FRIDAY LOOKS TO BE DRY
FOR THE MOST PART...ALTHOUGH MODELS DO INDICATE A WEAK IMPULSE
MOVING THROUGH A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER.
WITH COOLER UPPER LEVEL TEMPERATURES HERE DUE TO THE REMNANTS OF
THE DEPARTING UPPER LOW...LAPSE RATES WOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO
MENTION A FEW SHOWERS WITH DAYTIME HEATING. THIS WILL MAINTAIN OUR
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE NORTH ON FRIDAY.

THE LEADING IMPULSE WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM LIFTS INTO THE AREA BY
FRIDAY NIGHT. UPPER LEVEL FORCING WITH THE VORTICITY LOBE AND
INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT SHOULD SUPPORT A BAND OF SHOWERS LIFTING
NORTH THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
SATURDAY WILL ALSO BRING INCREASING EASTERLY WINDS MAKING FOR A COOL
AND WINDY DAY. ALTHOUGH CONVECTION POTENTIAL IS LIMITED...CAN NOT
RULE OUT AN ELEVATED THUNDERSTORM.

UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE INCREASES IN THE FAR WEST SATURDAY NIGHT
BRINGING LIKELY PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO THE FAR WEST...TAPERING TO
CHANCE POPS AS YOU MOVE INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.

SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON...THE CLOSED UPPER LOW
TRACKS SLOWLY EAST FROM EASTERN COLORADO INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA.
DURING THIS TIME NUMEROUS IMPULSES WILL LIFT AROUND THE UPPER LOW
AND INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS...WITH A BLOCKING HIGH TO OUR NORTH AND
EAST. THUS WE EXPERIENCE AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF ABUNDANT MOISTURE
AND GOOD FORCING INTO A DEFORMATION ZONE SITUATED OVER THE
FORECAST AREA...SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. MODELS HAVE TRENDED WARMER
THE LAST FEW RUNS YET THERE STILL APPEARS THAT THERE WILL BE A
PERIOD OF POSSIBLE MIXED PRECIPITATION...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE WEST LATE SUNDAY NIGHT.

THE SYSTEM FINALLY STARTS TO PULL OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS MONDAY
NIGHT...BUT WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WILL REMAIN IN A
CONVERGENCE ZONE BETWEEN THE CLOSED UPPER LOW TO OUR SOUTH AND A
BLOCKING RIDGE TO OUR NORTH AND EAST. THUS PRECIPITATION
CHANCES...ALTHOUGH DIMINISHING...WILL LINGER THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT. AND AGAIN DURING THE LATE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING
HOURS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT...A MIX WITH OR CHANGE OVER
TO SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE. ALTHOUGH BY THIS TIME QPF AMOUNTS WILL
BE MINIMAL...THUS SIGNIFICANT SNOW AMOUNTS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1251 PM CDT THU APR 24 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. TEMPO MVFR CONDITIONS IN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER KMOT THIS AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...AVIATION IMPACTS SHOULD BE MINIMAL AND BRIEF.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT THU APR 24 2014

STRONG WESTERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP OVER WESTERN
AND SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THESE WINDS
COMBINED WITH MINIMUM RH VALUES OF 20-25 PERCENT WILL GENERATE A
VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER FOR THESE AREAS. AT THIS TIME WIND
MAGNITUDES DO NOT WARRANT RED FLAG CONDITIONS.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...TM
SHORT TERM...NH
LONG TERM...TWH
AVIATION...TM
FIRE WEATHER...NH




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