Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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FXUS63 KBIS 130528
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1228 AM CDT SAT SEP 13 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1225 AM CDT SAT SEP 13 2014

MADE ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST WITH MOST GRIDDED
WEATHER ELEMENTS ON TRACK. TEMPERATURES IN THE FROST ADVISORY
AREA HAVE GENERALLY FALLEN INTO THE 30S...WHILE CLOUDS ACROSS
NORTHERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA HAVE KEPT READINGS A LITTLE
HIGHER THERE. MAIN CONCERN FOR LATER TODAY WILL BE THE PASSAGE OF
A COLD FRONT AND POTENTIAL SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH ITS PASSAGE.
WILL TAKE A CLOSER LOOK AT THAT FOR THE NEXT UPDATE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 912 PM CDT FRI SEP 12 2014

MAIN ADJUSTMENT FOR LATE EVENING UPDATE IS TO CLOUD COVER AS
BROAD AREA OF HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO PUSH INTO THE AREA.
OTHERWISE...GOING FORECAST LOOKS GOOD.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 622 PM CDT FRI SEP 12 2014

A QUIET EVENING CONTINUES OVER THE AREA. ONLY CHANGE IS TO UP
CLOUD COVER A BIT OVER THE NORTH LATER THIS EVENING AS HIGH CLOUDS
CONTINUE TO PUSH THROUGH WEST/NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. FROST
STILL REMAINS A CONCERN WHERE GOING HEADLINES ARE POSTED. UPDATES
HAVE BEEN SENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT FRI SEP 12 2014

MODEL SOUNDINGS REVEAL A SHALLOW LAYER OF CAPE ACROSS CENTRAL AND
EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THIS AREA TOO SHALLOW
FOR SHOWERS TO DEVELOP BUT SUFFICIENT FOR FORMING CLOUDS. CLOUDS
WILL CLEAR OFF THIS EVENING.

FORECAST CHALLENGE TONIGHT WILL BE FROST ISSUES. UPSTREAM TROUGH
AND COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST LATE TONIGHT. HIGH
CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE WILL OVERSPREAD THE NORTHWEST
AND NORTH CENTRAL AFTER MIDNIGHT. INCREASING LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY
WINDS AHEAD OF THE TROUGH SHOULD DECOUPLE MOST AREAS BASED IN NAM
MODEL FORECAST. SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE AREA FOR FROST...WITH
HETTINGER A CLIMATOLOGICAL COOL SPOT. MODELS FORECAST LOWS THERE IN
THE LOWER 30S. FEEL BEST CHANCE FOR FROST ALONG AND SOUTH OF I94
AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOWS 33 TO 38 TONIGHT SO WILL LEAVE FREEZING TEMPS
OUT OF THE FORECAST.

ON SATURDAY...COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE FAR NORTHWEST...LIKELY
BEFORE SUNRISE. POST FRONTAL SHOWERS WILL BE LIMITED TO THE NORTH
CENTRAL DURING THE AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT FRI SEP 12 2014

GENERALLY A DRY FORECAST WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURN THURSDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.

SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT NOW WORKING THROUGH
SOUTHEAST BRITISH COLUMBIA PER LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. THIS WILL SLIDE THROUGH NORTH DAKOTA EARLY
SATURDAY NIGHT. ENOUGH VERTICAL MOTION FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE MENTION
OF A SHOWER BEHIND THE FRONT ACROSS THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS AND INTO
THE NORTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY SATURDAY EVENING. NORTHWEST FLOW
THEN TAKES CONTROL WITH DRY WEATHER AND A GRADUAL WARMING TREND
SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
WILL TRANSLATE EAST BUT FLATTENS OUT AS IT MOVES ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA
THURSDAY. THIS IS AHEAD OF A PROGRESSIVE PACIFIC SHORTWAVE TROUGH
WHICH WILL SPREAD MOISTURE AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
INTO NORTH DAKOTA THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. AFTERNOON HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL RISE FROM AROUND 60F SUNDAY...TO THE 70S WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE COLDEST SUNDAY MORNING WITH
LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S...SLOWLY RISING INTO THE 50S BY FRIDAY
MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1225 AM CDT SAT SEP 13 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE 06Z TAF PERIOD. THERE WILL BE
INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS EARLY THIS MORNING WITH CEILINGS AROUND
5KFT BEHIND A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE LATER SATURDAY. WILL SHOW WINDS
TURNING TO THE WEST / NORTHWEST BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. ISOLATED
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE LATE SATURDAY MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON...BUT
THOSE CHANCES LOOK SMALL ENOUGH TO OMIT FROM THE AERODROMES.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT /8 AM MDT/ THIS MORNING FOR NDZ020-
025-033>037-040>048-050-051.

&&

$$

UPDATE...CK
SHORT TERM...WAA
LONG TERM...KS
AVIATION...CK





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