Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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FXUS63 KBIS 161737

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
1237 PM CDT Sun Jul 16 2017

Issued at 1230 PM CDT Sun Jul 16 2017

Primary upper wave remains over the west coast with a variety of
short waves lifting up the front side. Closest notable one is now
shifting its way towards eastern Montana, with a secondary one
noted over south central Montana into eastern Idaho. Areas of
light reflectivity noted over northwestern North Dakota, but do
not expect stronger convection until later today into this evening
with the arrival of the aforementioned waves. Latest soundings
still show enough instability for some stronger storms, with the
main threat still expected to be strong winds, though some hailers
can not be ruled out.

UPDATE Issued at 929 AM CDT Sun Jul 16 2017

Earlier mentioned supercell has fizzled out but additional smaller
areas of precipiation have developed over the northwest. Have
adjusted precipitation chances a bit to match up with current
radar. Updates have been sent.

UPDATE Issued at 637 AM CDT Sun Jul 16 2017

Single supercell moving through west central North Dakota
producing 40 to 50 mph wind gusts. Refreshed the POPs for this
for the morning hours as it tracks through northwest North Dakota.


.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 300 AM CDT Sun Jul 16 2017

The main forecast concerns involve critical fire weather
conditions this afternoon and early evening. Continue to have
confidence in very warm temperatures with the GEFS plumes
temperatures around 100 west with minimum relative humidity below
20 percent. Mean winds of around 20 mph with gusts to 30 mph
should be sufficient to meet red flag criteria. Current red flag
warning looks good.

Although high temperatures will be around 100 the heat index will
remain below 100 as the afternoon relative humidity will lower
the index.

Convective allowing models (CAMs) also suggest thunderstorms will
form along the cold front as it moves into North Dakota this
afternoon and overnight. Modest CAPE and shear will support
a marginal risk for high based strong thunderstorms, primarily
gusty winds for the severe weather threat with inverted V type

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 300 AM CDT Sun Jul 16 2017

Thunderstorms will continue across eastern sections of the
forecast area Monday and Monday night as the lingering frontal
zone will be the focus for convection. A marginal risk for severe
weather continues for the James River valley where very warm
temperatures once again suggest high based convection with
inverted V soundings.

Moderating temperatures Tuesday through Saturday will bring some
relief from the very warm weather pattern of late. This period
will also include several short waves that should bring
opportunities for rain, primarily Wednesday and again Friday into
Saturday. While these episodes will bring scattered thunderstorms
the chance for widespread moderate rain probably will not be very


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
Issued at 1230 PM CDT Sun Jul 16 2017

Scattered thunderstorms possible later this afternoon into
tonight, with some storms remaining possible over central and
eastern portions of North Dakota into Monday morning. Otherwise,
VFR conditions expected. Gusty southerly winds expected through
this afternoon.


Red Flag Warning until 9 PM CDT /8 PM MDT/ this evening for



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