Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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FXUS63 KBIS 300756
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
256 AM CDT Tue May 30 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 256 AM CDT Tue May 30 2017

Current frost advisory west through portions of south central
North Dakota this morning, with the potential for another frost
advisory tonight highlights the short term period. On the positive
side, less wind today, with sustained northwest around 15 mph with
occasional gusts up to 25 mph.

Current temperatures within the frost advisory are in the mid to
upper 30s, thus the advisory remains on track early this morning.
The latest suite of water vapor imagery shows a shortwave dropping
towards Devils Lake, with one last shortwave near Grand Rapids,
Manitoba. Both shortwaves will continue a southward jaunt this
morning. Main effect will be isolated to scattered rain showers in
the Turtle Mountains extending south into Harvey through 12z
Tuesday. The RAP13 has initialized this well and followed for the
near term forecast mentioned above. Clouds will be reinforced this
morning from the Turtle Mountains curving counterclockwise into
the James River Valley, then decreasing this afternoon after the
passage of the second shortwave. Farther west, expect a sunny sky
today. Will maintain highs this afternoon in the 60s under a
northerly, cyclonic flow aloft. A 1024mb surface high pressure
sitting over western Saskatchewan early this morning, will sprawl
southeast this afternoon and slide into south central ND by 7am
Wednesday. This location places it in a favored position, with
radiational cooling maximized under a clear sky and light wind.
Have undercut given model guidance and leaned on the colder side
of a Met/Mav mix for overnight lows. This results in widespread
low temperatures in the mid 30s across southwest and south central
North Dakota, surrounded by upper 30s elsewhere. Will let the
dayshift assess the latest data for another/potential frost
advisory tonight into Wednesday morning.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 256 AM CDT Tue May 30 2017

An mid/upper level ridge currently situated over the northern
Rockies and Great Basin region, will gradually shift closer to
North Dakota Wednesday, then across the state by Thursday evening.
This results in sunny weather both Wednesday and Thursday along
with warming temperatures. Expecting highs in the 70s Wednesday,
then low to mid 80s Thursday. The ridge breaks down Thursday night
through Monday, allowing a couple of shortwave troughs to push
through, especially Friday afternoon through Saturday. Good agreement
amongst the GFS/ECMWF for high end chance to likely pops/showers
and thunderstorms Friday through Saturday. After Saturday, it
appears most of the area gets a break on Sunday, followed by a
round of showers Monday into Tuesday. Temperatures Saturday through
Monday cool into the upper 60s and lower 70s for daytime highs.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
Issued at 256 AM CDT Tue May 30 2017

Main aviation problem will be mvfr cigs developing at KMOT/KJMS
near 12z Tuesday, and continuing through 15z at KMOT, and until
17z at KJMS. KBIS will see a brief period of low vfr cigs Tuesday
morning before clouds decrease early in the afternoon. Otherwise,
SKC at the western terminals through the forecast period. Expect
northwest to northerly winds Tuesday between 10kt and 20kt.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Frost Advisory until 10 AM CDT /9 AM MDT/ this morning for
NDZ001-002-009-010-017>020-031>034-040>045.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...KS
AVIATION...JNS


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