Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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FXUS63 KBIS 140238
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
938 PM CDT SUN JUL 13 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 938 PM CDT SUN JUL 13 2014

NO SIGNIFICANT UPDATES FOR THE EVENING UPDATE. DID EXTEND CLOUD
COVER BACK WEST JUST A BIT FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST BASED ON LATEST
SATELLITE IMAGERY. DID KEEP THE MENTION OF SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT
OVER THE FAR NORTH CENTRAL AS THE LATEST HRRR SHOWS SOME LIGHT
REFLECTIVITIES BRUSHING THIS AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT. ACTIVITY AT THIS
TIME REMAINS NORTH OF BRANDON MANITOBA INTO FAR NORTHEAST NORTH
DAKOTA.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 630 PM CDT SUN JUL 13 2014

CURRENTLY...SUNNY SKIES ACROSS WESTERN AND SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA. MOISTURE AROUND AN UPPER LOW DROPPING SOUTH THROUGH
WESTERN ONTARIO IS PUSHING INTO NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WITH
SCATTERED TO BROKEN VFR CEILINGS FROM MINOT AND JAMESTOWN NORTH TO
THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. SHOWERS OVER THE FAR NORTH CENTRAL HAVE
NOT MATERIALIZED AND WILL DROP OUR SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER THE
NORTH CENTRAL LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING. DID KEEP A
SMALL CHANCE LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING AS BETTER MOISTURE
WRAPS INTO THE AREA AS THE UPPER LOW DROPS SOUTH ACROSS THE
ARROWHEAD OF MINNESOTA. BASED ON 18 UTC NAM/GFS 925 AND 850 MB
MOISTURE PROFILES...BUMPED UP CLOUD COVER ACROSS CENTRAL AND
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 PM CDT SUN JUL 13 2014

ABNORMALLY COOL TEMPERATURES WILL HIGHLIGHT THE SHORT TERM FOR
MONDAY.

AS OF 20 UTC...AN ANOMALOUSLY DEEP CLOSED LOW WAS LOCATED ACROSS
FAR WESTERN ONTARIO...WITH AN EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE ACROSS SOUTHERN
MANITOBA INTO SOUTHEAST SASKATCHEWAN. AS THIS WAVE CONTINUES TO
PROPAGATE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...IT
WILL BE FOCUS FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS
PRIMARILY EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA...PERHAPS BRUSHING THE TURTLE
MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY.

COOL SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE STATE
TONIGHT INTO MONDAY...WITH NAEFS/GEFS 850 MB TEMPERATURES 2 TO 3
STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL ON MONDAY. FOLLOWED A BLEND OF
THE 12 UTC DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE TO AVOID THE BUILT IN
CLIMATOLOGY OF THE STATISTICAL SUITE FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES ON
MONDAY. JAMESTOWN HAS THE BEST CHANCE OF SETTING A RECORD LOW HIGH
TEMPERATURE ON MONDAY. SHOWN BELOW IS A FORECAST AND RECORD HIGH
TEMPERATURE TABLE FOR MONDAY JULY 14.

LOCATION........FORECAST.......RECORD

BISMARCK.........67............57 1884
MINOT............66............62 1958
JAMESTOWN........66............68 1937
DICKINSON........68............60 1958
WILLISTON........69............63 1912

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 PM CDT SUN JUL 13 2014

THERE IS GOOD MODEL/ENSEMBLE AGREEMENT THAT THE DEEP CYCLONE OVER
ONTARIO WILL LIFT OUT WEDNESDAY AND ALLOW RIDGING TO REPLACE CYCLONIC
FLOW OVER THE DAKOTAS. AFTER THE COOLEST DAY OF THE WEEK ON
MONDAY...A GRADUAL WARMUP WILL ACCOMPANY THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE.

THE ECMWF/GEM GLOBAL/GFS AND THEIR ASSOCIATED ENSEMBLES ALSO
ADVERTISE A SHIFT FROM THE SEMI-PERMANENT NORTHEAST PACIFIC AND
ONTARIO UPPER LOWS TO A MORE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WITH SUBTROPICAL
RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF CONUS AND BROAD LOW PRESSURE
OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THIS SHOULD DIRECT A SERIES OF MID
LEVEL SHORTWAVES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS BEGINNING ON THURSDAY
EVENING AND CONTINUING THROUGH SUNDAY. THERE IS LARGE UNCERTAINTY
WITH THE TIMING OF EACH SHORTWAVE...BUT CONSENSUS ON THE STRENGTH
AND POSITION OF THE BROAD LOW DIRECTING THOSE SHORTWAVES.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES HAVE BEEN INCREASED OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS
AS A RESULT OF THAT CONSENSUS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 938 PM CDT SUN JUL 13 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. THE EXCEPTION MAY BE AT KJMS AND POSSIBLY KMOT AROUND 12
UTC MONDAY AS BETTER MOISTURE SURGES INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA FROM
THE NORTH AND EAST. HOWEVER...WILL KEEP CEILINGS HERE LOW VFR FOR
NOW AND CAN ADJUST IF NEEDED WITH LATER UPDATES. VFR CEILINGS
ALREADY AT KMOT AND KJMS. BROUGHT VFR CEILINGS INTO KISN AND KBIS
AROUND 06 UTC...AND KDIK AROUND 10 UTC. NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW
EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS INCREASE MONDAY AFTERNOON...BUT
NOT AS HIGH AS SUNDAY...MORE LIKE 15-20 KNOTS EAST TO 10-15 KNOTS
WEST.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TWH
SHORT TERM...AYD
LONG TERM...SCHECK
AVIATION...TWH






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