Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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000
FXUS63 KBIS 130950
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
350 AM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 346 AM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

THE FOCUS OF THE SHORT TERM FORECAST IS A WINTRY MIX IN WESTERN ND
AND SNOWFALL IN CENTRAL ND. A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED
FOR SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA...AND A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR
THE SOUTH CENTRAL.

CURRENTLY...ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDED FROM MANITOBA TO
IOWA...WITH LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES. TEMPERATURES
HAVE BEEN RISING ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA EARLY THIS
MORNING. LOWS RANGED FROM 5 TO 20 BELOW ZERO FROM THE TURTLE
MOUNTAINS TO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY...BUT WERE CURRENTLY AROUND 5
BELOW ZERO. FARTHER WEST TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN FAIRLY STEADY OR
RISING...WITH TEENS IN THE FAR WEST ALL NIGHT.

WARM ADVECTION FROM THE WEST...ACCOMPANIED BY ISENTROPIC LIFT...WAS
ASSOCIATED WITH A BAND OF LIGHT SNOW THAT EXTENDED FROM WILLISTON
AND STANLEY IN THE NORTHWEST TO GRANT AND SIOUX COUNTIES IN THE
SOUTH CENTRAL PART OF THE STATE. THE LATEST ITERATIONS OF THE
HIGHRES MODELS INDICATE THIS BAND OF LIGHT SNOW
WEAKENING/DISSIPATING AS IT PROGRESSES EASTWARD THIS MORNING.

A SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE IS FORECAST TO MOVE EAST ACROSS
IDAHO AND MONTANA THIS MORNING...THEN MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
DAKOTAS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP BEFORE NOON IN THE SOUTHWEST AND AROUND NOON IN CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SHORTWAVE.

THE 00Z AND 06Z HIGHRES MODELS SUGGEST STRONG WARM ADVECTION
CONTINUING IN THE SOUTHWEST...WITH MAX TEMPERATURES ALOFT AROUND +3
TO +5 C. THUS THE THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST A MIX OF LIGHT FREEZING
RAIN...SLEET...SNOW...OR RAIN AT TIMES THIS AFTERNOON. AS THE
SHORTWAVE PASSES THROUGH...COLD ADVECTION WILL ENSUE AND
PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY CHANGE TO LIGHT SNOW THIS EVENING IN
SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA.

IN SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...THE THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST MAINLY
SNOW...BUT A MIX OF SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN IS POSSIBLE AS WELL -
ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON. MODELS ARE NOT IN THE BEST
AGREEMENT REGARDING SNOW AMOUNTS...BUT CONSENSUS SNOW AMOUNTS ARE IN
THE 3-5 INCH RANGE BY DAYBREAK SUNDAY MORNING. THUS CONFIDENT ON AT
LEAST WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE SOUTH CENTRAL. SOME OF THE
LATEST ITERATIONS OF THE SHORT TERM MODELS ARE HINTING AT HIGHER
SNOW AMOUNTS...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOWER - MAINLY BECAUSE IF THERMAL
PROFILES ARE WARMER/COOLER THAN FORECAST THIS WILL IMPACT SNOW
AMOUNTS.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 346 AM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES HIGHLIGHT THE EXTENDED FORECAST.

THE 00 UTC AND INCOMING 06 UTC DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE SUITES
ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON A BROAD...LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDING ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED FORECAST
PERIOD. THUS...ABOVE NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S AND 40S
ARE EXPECTED OVER MUCH OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1225 AM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

A BAND OF LIGHT SNOW WAS OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA EARLY THIS
MORNING (KISN AND KDIK) WITH CEILINGS AND VSBYS LOWERING TO MVFR AT
TIMES THROUGH 10Z...AND THEN MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL PART OF THE
STATE (KBIS AND KMOT) BY AROUND 09Z-12Z. EXPECT MVFR CEILINGS TO
REMAIN AT CENTRAL ND SITES ONCE THEY ARRIVE. BUT PERHAPS A PERIOD OF
LOW VFR CEILINGS AT KISN AND KDIK 12-18Z BEFORE LOWERING BACK TO
MVFR AFT 18Z SAT. MAIN CONCERN IS LATER ON SATURDAY 15Z-23Z IN
WESTERN ND WHEN WARM ADVECTION FROM THE WEST WOULD BRING A WINTRY
MIX STARTING WITH SNOW...LEADING TO SLEET...THEN FREEZING
RAIN...BEFORE CHANGING BACK TO SNOW AFT 00Z. WILL BE ANALYZING
LATEST MODELS AND HOPE TO HAVE A HIGHER CONFIDENCE LEVEL FOR THE 12Z
TAF ISSUANCE FOR TIMING AT KISN AND KDIK.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON CST /11 AM MST/ TODAY TO 6 AM
CST /5 AM MST/ SUNDAY FOR NDZ019>023-025-034>037-042-045>048-050-
051.

FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FROM NOON CST /11 AM MST/ TODAY TO
MIDNIGHT CST /11 PM MST/ TONIGHT FOR NDZ017-018-031>033-040-041-
043-044.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...AYD
AVIATION...JV


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