Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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000
FXUS63 KGLD 160526
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
1026 PM MST Mon Jan 15 2018

.SHORT TERM...(This afternoon through Tuesday)
Issued at 1156 AM MST Mon Jan 15 2018

A wind chill advisory remains in effect from this evening through
Tuesday morning.

The short term forecast concern are the cold temperatures that
will lead to the bitterly cold wind chills expected from this
evening through Tuesday morning.

Light snow of one inch or less was received across the region
overnight last night through mid day today as the cold front
pushed through the central high plains region on it`s way to the
southern high plains. Colder and dryer air was following this
front with skies clearing from north to south as it pushed further
south into the region.

With the fresh light snow, clear skies, and light winds expected
overnight, temperatures are expected to bottom out in the single
digits below zero overnight. As they do, the light north to
northwest winds will still be enough to lower wind chills into the
-15 to -24 range needed for an advisory across the entire
 forecast area. Have kept the Wind Chill Advisory intact across
 the whole forecast area as a result.

During the day on Tuesday, temperatures over the far western
sections of the forecast area will be a few degrees warmer than
today due to the surface lee trough beginning to develop along the
front range, while the highs over the far eastern sections will
be a few degrees cooler as a result of the cold air extending
further south into the southern plains.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 100 PM MST Mon Jan 15 2018

Tuesday night-Thursday night...broad and week upper level ridging
will move over the area by Wednesday and continue through Thursday
in between low pressure near the Great Lakes and off the west coast.
Main weather story will be warming temperatures. Low temperatures
Tuesday night look to be in the single digits above zero with mid
teens to around 20 Wednesday night. For Thursday night low to mid
20s. High temperatures Wednesday range from the mid 30s east to
around 50 west. For Thursday look for low 50s east to low 60s west.

Friday-Friday night...should see a slow increase in high clouds
moving across from the southwest ahead of slowly developing upper
trough which is forecast to dig as far south as southern
California/western Arizona by sunrise Saturday morning. High
temperatures in the mid/upper 50s north and east to the mid 60s
along the KS/CO border south of the interstate. Low temperatures in
the low to upper 20s.

Saturday-Sunday night...The upper trough continues to make its way
toward the area Saturday with the 12z GFS and GEM closing off the
low from the sfc up through 500mb near the favored border area of
southwest Kansas/southeast Colorado/north Texas around 12z Sunday.
The 12z ECWMF doesnt quite close the upper trough to produce the low
but does have a similar upper level pattern. By 00z Monday the low
is forecast to lift east-northeast toward northeast Kansas then
toward the Great Lakes by sunrise Monday morning. For our area a
small chance of precipitation exists in northwest Yuma county
Saturday afternoon with increasing coverage and probabilities
spreading southeast during the night. Will have to watch for the
possibility of the mid level dry slot nosing into areas along the
CO/KS border Saturday night which could cut down on precipitation
amounts a bit. Precipitation chances remain high for all but the
northwest Sunday morning before decreasing from northwest to
southeast in the afternoon as the storm moves away from the area.
Present indications show precipitation ending around or shortly
after sunset Sunday night. Could see breezy north winds along with
the snow which may produce some blowing and drifting Saturday night
through Sunday afternoon. Currently expecting up to 3 inches of snow
but certainly subject to change.

High temperatures Saturday range from the upper 30s north to near 50
south, for Sunday generally in the mid to upper 30s. Low
temperatures Saturday night in the upper teens to low 20s with low
teens to near 20 Sunday night.

Monday...currently expecting dry conditions with highs in the upper
30s to mid 40s. This could change depending on how much or how
little snow falls.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
Issued at 1021 PM MST Mon Jan 15 2018

Throughout the remainder of the TAF period, expecting VFR
conditions to prevail at the McCook and Goodland terminals. Winds
will be gusty early on and and then become light shifting to the
south at around 10 knots.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...Wind Chill Advisory until 11 AM MST /noon CST/ Tuesday for
     KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042.

CO...Wind Chill Advisory until 11 AM MST Tuesday for COZ090>092.

NE...Wind Chill Advisory until 11 AM MST /noon CST/ Tuesday for
     NEZ079>081.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LOCKHART
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...EV



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