Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS
FXUS63 KGLD 152350
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
450 PM MST Sun Jan 15 2017
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday night)
Issued at 124 PM MST Sun Jan 15 2017
Overview: Main concern remains with the winter storm impacting the
region this afternoon, tonight, and into Monday. Freezing rain this
afternoon will transition first to sleet, then to snow from west to
east this evening. Snow will be moderate to heavy at times. Recent
guidance has been reducing the snowfall totals with each iteration
due to the persistent eastward track of the low, which is now moving
into southwest Texas and southeastern New Mexico. The eastward jog
will cause the focus of snowfall to shift eastward. We still expect
a band of heavy snow to set up from south-southwest to north-
northeast tonight and Monday morning. Those locations within the
heavier band will generally see 3 to 5 inches of snow with the
potential of up to 7 inches in isolated locations. Due to the slower
movement of this system, light snow could linger into Monday
afternoon before moving off to the east and northeast.
Impacts: Power outages and downed trees/limbs are possible this
afternoon and early evening especially in areas where ice
accumulations approach or exceed one quarter of an inch. Winds have
remained relatively light today but are expected to increase as the
low approaches the region overnight and into Monday. Roadways are
already slick this afternoon and driving conditions will continue to
deteriorate this afternoon and evening. Tonight`s concern will
mainly be travel related as heavy snowfall will make for slick
roadways and low visibility at times.
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 1258 PM MST Sun Jan 15 2017
For the extended period...the exiting of the storm system from over
the weekend/holiday period...will allow for mid level ridging to
build over the Plains Region. Models do set up a cutoff upper low
into the mix that sets up over the Southern Plains/Rockies midweek.
This system works northeast into the Central Plains region late
Thursday/Thursday night. This low will be followed by subsequent
systems leading into the upcoming weekend.
Models differences for timing and positioning of the forthcoming
systems do crop up in latest runs of the GFS/ECMWF. Trend is for
light precipitation to ensue as these pass by...mostly for the
latter ones towards the upcoming weekend...with qpf on the low side
due to presence of subsidence from ridging. Overall trend thru the
forecast is for warmer...above normal temps(mid 40s to low 50s)thru
the daytime hours...and w/ overnight low temps ranging in the 20s.
Cloud cover will be the main caveat that may inhibit temps for both
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)
Issued at 429 PM MST Sun Jan 15 2017
The low associated with the system spreading a wintry mix of
precipitation across the central high plains region today will
lift out of Texas overnight and into eastern Kansas by mid day on
Monday. As the system pulls cooler air aloft southward on the back
side of the system as it lifts across the plains states, expected
a transition from liquid and freezing precipitation to all snow
after about 09Z at MCK and GLD.
Conditions at GLD will transition from IFR to LIFR by 09Z as a
mix of light freezing rain and snow turns to all snow. Moderate
snow is possible Monday morning between 14-18Z with visibilities
also dropping to 1/2 mile before snow tapers off and conditions
improve to IFR after 18Z.
MCK will be IFR with a mix of light freezing rain and snow that
will turn to all snow by 09Z along with conditions becoming LIFR.
Snow is expected to taper off after 20Z with conditions improving
KS...Winter Storm Warning until 7 PM MST /8 PM CST/ Monday for
Ice Storm Warning until 11 AM MST /noon CST/ Monday for KSZ004-
CO...Winter Storm Warning until 7 PM MST Monday for COZ091-092.
Winter Weather Advisory until 7 PM MST Monday for COZ090.
NE...Winter Storm Warning until 7 PM MST /8 PM CST/ Monday for