Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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000
FXUS63 KGLD 272050
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
250 PM MDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 215 PM MDT FRI MAR 27 2015

SHORT TERM CONCERNS ARE DRIER AND WARMER CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON
SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

THE AXIS OF THE LARGE UPPER RIDGE CURRENTLY RESIDING OVER THE
INTERMOUNTAIN AND ROCKY MOUNTAIN REGIONS MOVES EAST OVER THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS ON SATURDAY AS A TROUGH CUTS THROUGH THE
APEX OF THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES.

THE COOLER HIGH PRESSURE AREA AT THE SURFACE CURRENTLY OVER THE
PLAINS STATES IS SLIDING FURTHER TO THE EAST AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
THAT HAD BEEN ALONG THE FRONT RANGE THIS MORNING MOVES EAST ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  THE SURFACE TROUGH
ASSOCIATED WITH THE BOUNDARY RETROGRADES BACK INTO POSITION ALONG
THE FRONT RANGE BY LATE SATURDAY AS THE APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH
ACTS TO DEEPEN THE LEE SIDE TROUGH.

THE RESULT IS TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO WARM THROUGH SATURDAY
WITH WARMEST TEMPERATURES OVER THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA AND COOLER TEMPERATURES TO THE EAST.  CONDITIONS WITH THE
DOWNSLOPING WINDS COMING OFF THE ROCKIES WILL BE DRIER ON SATURDAY
THAN TODAY...WITH THE DRIEST CONDITIONS AND RH VALUES BELOW 20
PERCENT EXPECTED OVER MAINLY THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA. AN ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER RISK IS POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY MAINLY
OVER THE WEST...BUT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED
AT THIS TIME SINCE IT APPEARS WIND SPEEDS WILL BE SOMEWHAT LOWER
THAN TODAY AS THE AXIS OF THE SURFACE TROUGH RETROGRADES BACK TO THE
WEST DURING THE DAY.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM MDT FRI MAR 27 2015

SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY...UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT ENTER THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE AREA MID TO LATE
EVENING BRINGING A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS TO AREAS GENERALLY IN OUR
NEBRASKA COUNTIES. WITH SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY/LIMITED
INHIBITION...GREAT 850MB THETA-E CONVERGENCE AND GOOD LOW AND MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES A RUMBLE OF THUNDER IS ALSO POSSIBLE. AS THE FRONT
CONTINUES SOUTH ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA BETTER MOISTURE WITH THE
DISTURBANCE PUSHES JUST EAST OF THE AREA LIMITING PRECIP POTENTIAL
TO SOME SPRINKLES. NORTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED TO GUST 20 TO 30 MPH.
LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 30S WEST TO MID 40S EAST. FOR SUNDAY
JUST SOME CIRRUS CLOUDS SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE WITH A SOUTH
MOVEMENT DURING THE AFTERNOON. NORTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE GUSTY
IN THE MORNING WITH A DECREASE IN THE AFTERNOON. AFTERNOON HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S EXCEPT A FEW 70 DEGREE READINGS NEAR HILL
CITY AND GOVE.

SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY NIGHT...WEATHER DISTURBANCE SCOOTS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PART OF THE AREA (GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE
INTERSTATE) SUNDAY NIGHT POSSIBLY BRINGING A SMALL CHANCE FOR LIGHT
PRECIPITATION. GIVEN SOME TIMING AND MOISTURE AVAILABILITY
DISCREPANCIES WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY PRECIP MENTION AT PRESENT TIME.
THIS FEATURE LIFTS SLOWLY NORTHEAST DURING THE AFTERNOON AS LIGHT
NORTHWEST WINDS MOVE IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE
MID TO UPPER 30S WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. FOR MONDAY NIGHT
GENERALLY CLEAR WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S.

TUESDAY...PRETTY QUIET DURING THE DAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES PER
ECMWF/GFS 850MB TEMPS IN THE MID 70S TO AROUND 80. WITH INCREASING
SOUTHWEST WINDS TUESDAY NIGHT AND SLOWLY INCREASING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE LOW TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE MILD WITH LOW TO UPPER 40S.

WEDNESDAY...UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE FRONT
RANGE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON EXITING THE AREA SHORTLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT. COLD FRONT ACCOMPANIES THE UPPER WAVE BRINGING SOME GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS DURING THE DAY. RAISED AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES INTO
THE UPPER 60S TO UPPER 70S (WEST TO EAST) WHICH MAY STILL BE
UNDERDONE AS PEAK 850MB TEMPS SUPPORT READINGS CLOSER TO MEX
GUIDANCE IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S PRIOR TO FRONTAL PASSAGE. MAY
SEE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE FRONT...PRIMARILY ACROSS THE
EXTREME EASTERN PORTIONS OF NORTON AND GRAHAM COUNTIES. ANOTHER
PLACE THAT NEEDS TO BE WATCHED WILL BE FROM HOXIE TO OAKLEY AND
TRIBUNE SOUTH. DRIER AIR MOVES IN DURING THE NIGHT LEADING TO A
MOSTLY CLEAR SKY AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 30S TO NEAR 40.

THURSDAY-FRIDAY...LITTLE CHANGE TO CURRENT FORECAST. LONG RANGE
MODELS HAVE DIFFERING SOLUTIONS AS TO WHEN/IF UPPER TROUGH PASSES
ACROSS THE AREA OR WE REBOUND WITH SOME UPPER RIDGING. WILL CONTINUE
WITH A CHANCE OF PRECIP THROUGH THE PERIOD. FOR NOW WILL GO WITH
HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S TO AROUND 70 THURSDAY...LOW 50S TO LOW
60S FRIDAY. LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 30S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1123 AM MDT FRI MAR 27 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH MOSTLY SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS AT
GLD THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 15KTS WITH SOME
HIGHER GUSTS WILL TURN NORTHWEST AFTER 21Z AS A SURFACE
TROUGH/FRONT MOVES SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS
REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WIND SPEEDS WILL DROP OFF
AROUND SUNSET AND ARE EXPECTED TO TURN MORE WESTERLY OVERNIGHT.

AT MCK...MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH ABOUT
20Z WITH SOME LINGERING LOW CLOUDS THAT ARE EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE
WITH CONDITIONS BECOMING VFR BY 21Z. SOUTH WINDS WILL TURN
SOUTHWEST AND THEN NORTHWEST AS THE SURFACE TROUGH/FRONT
APPROACHES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MAINLY SCATTERED HIGH
CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH WINDS BECOMING LIGHT AND
VARIABLE AROUND 12Z AS THE SUN RISES.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LOCKHART
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...LOCKHART



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