Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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000
FXUS63 KGLD 270527
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1027 PM MST FRI DEC 26 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 815 PM MST FRI DEC 26 2014

UPDATE HAS BEEN ISSUED TO CANCEL WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY AND
REMOVE ENHANCED WORDING IN FORECAST PERTAINING TO THE ADVISORY.
RADAR TRENDS HAVE SHOWED AREAL COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION HAS
DROPPED OFF SHARPLY WITH UPPER LOW FINALLY SHIFTING MORE INTO THE
PLAINS REGION...AND OFF THE FRONT RANGE/ROCKIES. STILL DO EXPECT
SOME LIGHT SCATTERED ACCUM OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AS RETURN
BACKSIDE FLOW FROM THIS SYSTEM AFFECTS THE REGION. THE TREND FOR
LATER TONIGHT IS FOR GRADUAL CLEARING...AND IS SHOWING UP WELL ON
SATELLITE LOOP. SO...FOR REST OF EVENING BEFORE CLEARING
ENSUES...UP TO AN ADDITIONAL INCH OF ACCUM IS POSSIBLE WITH TEMPS
STILL LOOKING TO DROP SHARPLY AS SKIES BECOME MORE CLEAR AND
RADIATIONAL COOLING ENSUES...WITH FRESH SNOWPACK IN MANY SPOTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 100 PM MST FRI DEC 26 2014

AT 18Z UPPER LOW CENTER LOCATED OVER THE WESTERN SLOPE OF COLORADO
WITH BROAD AREA OF LIGHT SNOW OVER ALL OF THE FORECAST AREA EXCEPT
ROUGHLY EAST OF A LINE FROM OBERLIN TO COLBY AND LEOTI WHERE
700-500MB RH RATHER LOW.

FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON UPPER LOW OPENS UP A BIT WHILE
LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA WITH INITIAL DRY SLOT OVER THE
FAR EAST SATURATING THUS LIGHT SNOW COMMENCING.

FOR THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS...UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES
MOVING NORTHEAST WITH SOME DRIER AIR COMING INTO THE SOUTHEAST AND
SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE AREA BRINGING AN END TO THE SNOWFALL.
NORTH OF THIS LINE SOME LIGHT SNOW STILL EXPECTED WITH MINIMAL
ACCUMULATION. AFTER MIDNIGHT NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED AS LOW AND
MID LEVEL MOISTURE EXIT THE AREA. LOW TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN
THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO. LOW TEENS FROM NORTON TO OAKLEY AND
LEOTI AND POINTS EAST.

SATURDAY...LOTS OF SUNSHINE WITH NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH IN
THE MORNING BACKING TO THE WEST BY AFTERNOON THEN SOUTHWEST/WEST
LATE IN THE DAY. FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE TEMPERATURES.
ANTICIPATING AREAS GENERALLY ALONG/NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE TO HAVE
HIGHEST SNOWFALL TOTALS AND DEPTHS WITH LESSER AMOUNTS TO THE
SOUTH. DESPITE FULL SUNSHINE SNOWPACK WILL PREVENT FULL MIXING AND
WILL AIM FOR HIGHS IN THE MID 20S TO AROUND 30. SOUTH OF THE
INTERSTATE AM EXPECTING LOW 30S.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 222 PM MST FRI DEC 26 2014

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WILL REMAIN DRY AS THE REMNANTS OF THE
UPPER TROUGH LIFT OUT OF THE REGION AND ZONAL FLOW STRENGTHENS
ALOFT.

A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION AS THE
STRENGTHENING WESTERLY FLOW SAGS SOUTH ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES
AND HIGH PLAINS. WITH THE JET TAKING A MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK ACROSS
THE UNITES STATES...THE CENTRAL PART OF THE U.S. IS OPENED UP TO
OUTBREAKS OF COLD AIR. TEMPERATURES MONDAY WILL BE 10-20 DEGREES
COOLER THAN SUNDAY WITH TEMPERATURES CONTINUING TO BECOME COLDER
THROUGH TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE CENTER OF A COLD HIGH
PRESSURE AREA SLIDES SOUTH ALONG THE HIGH PLAINS REGION. THE COLD
AIRMASS AT THE SURFACE IN COMBINATION WITH THE JETSTREAM IN
POSITION ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS REGION WILL PRODUCE AREAS
OF SNOW FROM SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY WITH PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA EXPECTED TO SEE BETWEEN ONE AND FOUR INCHES OF
TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATION OVER THAT 48 HOUR PERIOD. HIGHEST SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS ARE CURRENTLY EXPECTED OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN THE
WEST.

DURING THE LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK...THE UPPER CLOSED LOW THAT
HAS BEEN DEEPENING OVER CA/NV WILL BEGIN MOVING THROUGH THE
SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES...EMERGING EAST OF THE ROCKIES OVER THE
SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS ON FRIDAY. WESTERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE
FLOW AHEAD OF A DEEPENING SURFACE TROUGH WILL HELP PUSH THE
COLDEST AIR OUT OF THE AREA...WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND TEMPERATURES
STILL EXPECTED TO REMAIN COLDER THAN NORMAL THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1027 PM MST FRI DEC 26 2014

FOR BOTH TAF SITES...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WITH BKN050-100 THRU
12Z SAT...THEN SCT050-100. FROM 07Z-09Z THOUGH MVFR -SW WITH VSBY
DOWN TO 4SM AT TIMES. WINDS NNW 5-10KTS THRU 18Z SAT...THEN WSW
5-10KTS.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JN
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...LOCKHART
AVIATION...JN



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