Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 181914

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
114 PM MDT Wed Oct 18 2017

Issued at 1040 AM MDT Wed Oct 18 2017

No change to previous forecast/reasoning for this afternoon
through tonight.


.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 157 AM MDT Wed Oct 18 2017

Latest upper air analysis shows a short wave trough moving onto
the Plains. At the surface a cold front was following the short
wave trough over Central Wyoming.

Today a weak cold front will move through the forecast area. The
north half will have more time in the slightly cooler air today.
Behind the cold front northerly winds will become breezy during
the late morning and into the early afternoon. Very little cloud
cover is expected with the frontal passage due to the dry
environment. Am expecting the winds to decline during the middle
and late afternoon. There could be a brief window for fire weather
conditions this afternoon. See fire weather section for further

Tonight lows will be similar to last night.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 113 PM MDT Wed Oct 18 2017

Dry conditions are expected during the entire extended period. The
region will see southwest upper level flow over the region from
Thursday night into Saturday morning before a trough will sweep
across the area on Saturday. Northwest flow will then dominate over
the region for the remainder of the period.

There are a few cold fronts that are expected to move over the
region during the period. One will be late Friday night into
Saturday morning. This front will drop temperatures on Saturday and
bring windy conditions (with the slight possibility of light rain
showers early Saturday morning). The next cold front will be Monday
afternoon. This front will also decrease temperatures on Tuesday and
increase winds slightly.

Temperatures are expected to be in the 70s and 80s on Friday, then a
drop on Saturday into the mid 50s to mid 60s. Sunday and Monday will
generally be in the 60s and 70s. Tuesday will be in the low to mid
60s. Then a slight increase into the upper 60s on Wednesday.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
Issued at 1030 AM MDT Wed Oct 18 2017

VFR conditions will rule through the TAF period in association
with a very dry airmass in place across the Tri-State region.
W/WNW winds at 5-10 knots will shift to the north and increase to
15 knots with gusts to 20-22 knots for a 2-3 hour period early
this afternoon as high pressure builds into the area from the
north. Winds will shift to the northeast and weaken to ~10 knots
or less by 21Z. Winds will become light/variable by ~00Z and
will remain light/variable through the rest of the TAF period.




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