Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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000
FXUS63 KGLD 231741
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
1041 AM MST Thu Feb 23 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1032 AM MST Thu Feb 23 2017

Low clouds and stratus hanging tough this morning, throwing a kink
in the forecast. First, cancelled the northern row of counties in
the red flag warning as the warm front and low rh conditions will
remain further south. Kept Greeley and Wichita in red flag for
now...as southern part of those counties are clear and may be
brushed by the wind/low rh conditions briefly this afternoon.
Elsewhere...precipitation so far has only been in the from of
drizzle with the fog, so lowered early afternoon pops
dramatically. High temperatures will also need to be lowered
dramatically if current trends continue. Will have to wait for
later this afternoon and arrival of upper forcing for better
precipitation chances. Precipitation type will be rain or
freezing rain in northeast Colorado early, rain elsewhere, with
rain/snow line gradually moving east through the afternoon. By 00z
expect rain/snow line to be near a McCook to Goodland line, then
by 06z just about the whole area should be snow. As for
accumulations, might see an inch or two in southwest Nebraska and
adjacent areas of northwest Kansas and Yuma County tonight, with
less than an inch elsewhere.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Saturday night)
Issued at 216 AM MST Thu Feb 23 2017

Across the Tri State region this morning...temps are ranging from
the mid 30s to the mid 40s as the area currently lies north of a
frontal boundary. The placement of this front...combined with high
pressure to our north and a surface low over southern Colorado is
giving the area a mixed sky cover. With clear skies currently over
western zones and mostly cloudy to cloudy conditions elsewhere as
stratus works south from Nebraska ahead of the surface ridge...and
mid/high cloud works across much of Kansas. There is also a general
ENE surface flow over the area ahead of the ridge.

For today on thru Friday night...it will be the surface low over
southern Colorado along with the frontal boundary draped over the
area...that will place the key roles for the wx over the region. The
low over Colorado is expected to shift eastward along the boundary
during the day today shifting east of the CWA late tonight into
Friday. As the low moves east the front will meander northward into
the CWA splitting the area along the I-70 corridor.

Temps are going to be warm enough initially for much of the CWA to
allow for rainshowers to develop. By the afternoon hrs with the low
over western Kansas...instability N and E of the low will trigger
some isolated t-storms. Best chances will occur over eastern zones
where SPC currently has portions of the east in Marginal Risk for
severe wx.

As the day progresses this afternoon...winds will begin to shift on
the backside of the low...allowing for colder air to infiltrate the
CWA...giving the area a change over to a rw/sw mix and eventually sw
as the evening hrs come about. Latest model guidance has increased
the amount of qpf for much of the northern CWA during this timeframe
and with decent CAA into the area...have increased snow totals.
Primary focus for accum will remain north of I-70 especially near
the KS/NE border where 1-2" is possible...down to 0.5" or less the
further south you go. Snow will taper off from west to east during
the day Friday before ending. By Friday night on thru Saturday night
high pressure returns over the area for dry conditions.

Other concerns for the Thursday to Friday night period will be Fire
Wx and strong winds.

First off...south of the frontal boundary thru the day...region will
remain mostly dry with lower RH readings versus northern locales.
Thinking the placement of the front will allow for the southern tier
to remain under Red Flag conditions so have continued warning...but
have dropped the Fire Weather Watch for the next tier of counties
along I-70. These areas may briefly hit criteria but not for the 3-
hr expected period for a warning.

Strong wind conditions will also ensue with the passage of this
system and across the CWA Friday on the backside of the exiting low.
Looking for gusts into the 30-40mph range with some locally higher
amounts near 45 mph possible.

Overall for temps...the CWA for today will see a north to south
orientation for highs and will be dependent on where the front sets
up...but upper 30s to near 40F up north to transition to low 60s
south is the best bet at this time. Cold air in place for Friday
with highs only in the upper 20s north to the mid 30s south...but by
Saturday...much of the CWA will trend upward into mostly the lower
to mid 40s. Overnight lows will mainly range in the teens to low 20s
at best. With these cold temps at night...and the expected
winds...wind chill readings could drop into the single numbers above
zero for Thursday/Friday nights.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Thursday)
Issued at 227 AM MST Thu Feb 23 2017

The pattern for the extended period looks to be mostly dry with
closer to normal temperatures.

High pressure will be the main influencing factor expect for
Tuesday. On Tuesday there is a slight chance of showers due to a
possible frontal system impacting the High plains. The models
indicating a frontal system developing over the Texas panhandle and
moving northeast over the High Plains. This system should stay
mostly to the east of western Kansas however... if the track is more
westward from what the current models are showing... then we will
see a greater chance of precipitation.

After Tuesday high pressure will build back over the region for the
rest of the period.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
Issued at 1032 AM MST Thu Feb 23 2017

Low clouds and areas of fog will result in IFR/VLIFR conditions at
both KGLD and KMCK through this afternoon. Widely scattered rain
showers this afternoon will change to snow by early this evening,
with light snow continuing through tonight and into Friday
morning. Flight categories expected to remain mostly IFR/VLIFR due
to the reduced visibility and low ceilings.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...Red Flag Warning until 6 PM MST /7 PM CST/ this evening for
     KSZ041-042.

CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...024
SHORT TERM...JN
LONG TERM...BW
AVIATION...024



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