Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 201949
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
149 PM MDT Fri Oct 20 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Through Saturday)
Issued at 150 PM MDT Fri Oct 20 2017

Through Tonight: A lee cyclone will deepen in eastern CO as
shortwave energy over the PAC NW progresses east toward the
northern Rockies. Marginal destabilization is expected along/east
of Hwy 283 late this afternoon into tonight as 10-12C H85
dewpoints advect poleward beneath a pronounced elevated mixed
layer (characterized by H7-H5 lapse rates of 8.0 C/km) via
strengthening southerly flow on the eastern periphery of the lee
cyclone in western KS. Given a significant amount of convective
inhibition and relatively weak upper forcing prior to cold fropa
~12Z Sat, expect dry conditions to persist. Strong southerly winds
are expected along/east of Highway 283 this afternoon/evening,
becoming sustained at 25-35 mph with gusts up to 50 mph. Although
winds should decrease with loss of insolation by ~00Z, GFS
forecast soundings suggest a shallow (1500-2000 ft) mixed layer
may develop beneath the EML east of Highway 283 around 03Z, when
low-level (1000 ft AGL) southerly flow nocturnally strengthens to
~50 knots. As a result, a second maxima in winds/gusts may occur
east of Hwy 283 this evening. Wind gusts of 45 to 55 mph cannot be
ruled out, though this is more likely to occur south/east of the
GLD CWA (e.g. Dodge City, Hays, Russell). Expect highs this
afternoon in the lower 80s and lows tonight ranging from the
lower/mid 40s in eastern CO (where the cold fropa will occur prior
to 12Z) to the upper 50s/lower 60s in the far east where
southerly flow will persist all night.

Saturday: Expect sustained NW winds of 25-35 mph with gusts up to
~45 mph for several hours in the wake of the cold front (fropa
between 12-15Z from N/NW to S/SE) in association with 6-7 mb/3-hr
pressure rises with cold advection Saturday morning, strongest in
southwest NE, northeast CO, and extreme northwest KS. Expect winds
to decrease to 15-20 mph with gusts to ~30 mph by early
afternoon (~18Z), 10-15 mph by ~21Z, and light/variable or calm by
or shortly after sunset in most areas. Expect afternoon
temperatures 15-20F cooler than previous days, ranging from the
upper 50s in eastern CO to mid 60s far S/SE.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday)
Issued at 115 PM MDT Fri Oct 20 2017

Saturday night-Sunday night...longwave upper trough and sfc cold
front slowly move east during the night with a light westerly
component to the wind. With fairly light winds, little if any cloud
cover and dewpoints in the mid teens to mid 20s situation is set up
for temperatures to be slightly lower then superblend model. Will
undercut lows by a few degrees and shoot for lows in the mid 20s to
mid 30s. Freeze conditions are possible and highlights may be
issued in later forecasts. For Sunday upper level ridging builds
into the area with a generally sunny sky and perhaps breezy
southwest wind during the late morning through afternoon hours.
Afternoon temperatures should peak in the upper 60s to low 70s.
For Sunday night sfc winds veer to the west and northwest under
what should be a clear sky. Low temperatures shouldnt be as cold
with readings in the upper 30s to mid 40s.

Monday...GFS slower in pushing a cold front through the area with
NAM/SREF/ECMWF in better agreement.  Given the discrepancy wont
change advertised forecast highs in the mid 60s to low 70s. Could
see some breezy north winds behind the front but nothing serious.
Low temperatures in the mid 30s to low 40s.

Tuesday...should see continued breezy conditions east of the
Colorado/Kansas border during the day as we remain in a tight
gradient aloft between 590dm high over the west coast and deep low
pressure near the Great Lakes. Todays 850mb temperatures continue to
advertise a range of 5C (east) to 11C (west) range supporting highs
in the upper 50s to low 60s, in line with MEX guidance. Low
temperatures in the low to mid 30s.

Wednesday...am expecting extensive sunshine during the day with a
clear sky overnight ahead of an approaching upper trough and cold
front. 850mb temperatures and MEX guidance would support highs at
least in the low to mid 70s (as advertised) which is in line with
GFS 850mb temperatures. ECMWF 850mb temps are a few degrees higher
supporting possibly warmer temperatures then advertised. Low
temperatures in the mid 30s to low 40s.

Thursday...long range models bring an upper trough and increase in
clouds through the area. Nice axis of 850-500mb moisture oriented
northeast-southwest across much of the area supportive of chance to
likely pops for light rain showers across the northwest portion of
the area. This system moves rather quickly across the rest of the
area through midnight with a chance of light rain showers generally
along and south of the interstate. After midnight moisture
dissipates leaving only a slight chance for light rain/snow showers
across the extreme south. Still looking for breezy to possibly windy
north winds given 9-13mb 6 hour pressure increase and 850mb winds to
35kts or so. Nudged up winds a few kts but not as high as consmos
guidance. Given differences in fronts arrival as well as precip
placement wont mess with high temperature forecast which right now
has mid 50s to mid 60s. MEX guidance much colder with low 40s to
around 50. Low temperatures in the mid 20s to low 30s for now.

Friday...a large upper trough covers much of the country with dry
conditions and current forecast highs in the low to mid 50s with
lows in the upper 20s to low 30s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 1145 AM MDT Fri Oct 20 2017

VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period at the GLD/MCK
terminals. Southerly winds will increase to 15-25 knots with gusts
up to 30-35 knots this afternoon and early evening. Breezy
conditions will persist until ~midnight, after which winds should
decrease to ~10 knots as a lee cyclone progresses into southwest
NE and northwest KS. Winds will veer to the northwest and increase
to 20-30 knots with gusts to 35-40 knots in the wake of a dry cold
frontal passage Sat morning (11-17Z). Northwest winds will
decrease to 15-20 knots at the end of the TAF period 18-21Z Sat
afternoon.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1145 AM MDT Fri Oct 20 2017

NW wind gusts of 25-35 mph are expected in the wake of a cold
frontal passage in eastern CO during the day Sat as dewpoints
fall into the teens while temps remain nearly steady in the 50s.
Minimum RHs of 20-25% are expected for the majority of the
day. RHs as low as 15% will be possible by late afternoon when NNW
winds will begin to decrease. With a temporal disconnect between
the lowest RHs and strongest winds, confidence is low that
critical fire weather conditions will occur for more than an hour
or two.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...VINCENT
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...VINCENT
FIRE WEATHER...VINCENT


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