Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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000
FXUS63 KGLD 290840
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
240 AM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 219 AM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

04Z WATER VAPOR IMAGERY/RAP ANALYSIS INDICATES STRONG SHORT WAVE
TROUGH MOVING INTO THE DAKOTAS WITH LARGE AREA OF DRYING NOTED TO
THE SOUTH OF THE CIRCULATION. AT THE SFC...COLD FRONT WAS ENTERING
THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE WITH 3 HOUR PRESSURE RISES EXCEEDING 7MB IN
WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. A FEW DRY LIGHTNING STRIKES WERE NOTED ACROSS
WESTERN NEBRASKA AS WELL...WITH 3.9 IR IMAGERY INDICATING AT LEAST
2 FIRE STARTS ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA.

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS WILL BE WINDS AND FIRE WX TODAY FOLLOWED BY
TEMPS AND FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH TUESDAY.

DRY THUNDERSTORMS A BIT OF A CONCERN THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS AS
AREA OF HIGH BASED SHOWERS CONTINUE TO DRIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST IN
ADVANCE OF COLD FRONT. WHAT LIMITED INSTABILITY THAT WAS PRESENT
EARLIER LOOKS TO HAVE DECREASED WITH COINCIDES WITH A LACK OF
LIGHTING STRIKES FOR THE PAST FEW HOURS. IF LIGHTNING THREAT WERE
TO INCREASE...THINK A RED FLAG WARNING WOULD BE NEEDED DUE TO
STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS COMING AND OVERALL DRY CONDITIONS.

COLD FRONT HAS ALREADY PRODUCED WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 44 KTS AS IT
WENT THROUGH WRAY COLORADO AND EXPECT ABOUT A 30 MINUTE WINDOW
BEHIND THE FROPA WHERE WINDS WILL PICK UP TO THIS RANGE. ALTHOUGH
WINDS WILL DIE OFF FOR A FEW HOURS BEFORE SUNRISE...EXPECT A RAPID
INCREASE BTWN 13 AND 15Z AS BOUNDARY LAYER DEPTH INCREASES. COULD
CERTAINLY SEE A GUST AROUND 50 MPH OR SO...BUT THINK WINDS WILL
REMAIN BELOW WARNING CRITERIA BEFORE WANING IN THE AFTERNOON.

OTHER POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION WOULD BE SUNDAY NIGHT AS WEAK
SHORT WAVE TROUGH INDUCES PERIOD OF WAA CENTERED AROUND H7.
ALTHOUGH POTENTIAL INSTABILITY EXISTS...THINK ODDS OF THIS BEING
REALIZED IS VERY LOW AND WILL CONTINUE WITH ONLY 5 PERCENT CHANCES
IN SOUTHERN CWA.

TEMPS WILL BE AROUND 20 DEGREES COOLER TODAY WITH THINGS
REBOUNDING THROUGH THE START OF THE WEEK. OVERALL A STRONG
CONSENSUS APPARENT WITH TEMPERATURES SO ONLY MADE A MINOR TWEAK
HERE OR THERE TO ACCOUNT FOR LOCAL BIASES.

&&

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1241 AM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL PUSH A
SURFACE COLD FRONT INTO THE LOCAL AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
ALTHOUGH BETTER FORCING WILL BE TO THE NORTH...TIMING AT PEAK
HEATING MAY ALLOW FOR A FEW SHOWERS TO POP UP WITH THE FRONT.
BETTER INSTABILITY WILL BE EAST OF THE AREA...BUT MIGHT SEE A
THUNDERSTORM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON IN FAR EASTERN COUNTIES...THEN
WIDELY SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE COOLER POST
FRONTAL AIR MASS. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH SLIDES DOWN THE HIGH
PLAINS THURSDAY WITH BEST FORCING ARRIVING HERE THURSDAY NIGHT.
MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK WILL RESULT IN BETTER PRECIPITATION CHANCES
COMPARED TO WEDNESDAY. BOTH THE ECMWF AND THE GFS SHOW
ACCUMULATING SNOW POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING NORTH
OF INTERSTATE 70 WITH HIGHEST AMOUNTS IN NORTHEAST COLORADO. ECMWF
HAS 1 TO 3 INCHES WHILE THE GFS IS SIGNIFICANTLY HIGHER WITH UP
TO 8 INCHES IN NORTHEAST COLORADO. A LITTLE TOO EARLY TO BUY INTO
SPECIFIC NUMBERS AT THIS POINT...BUT WILL INTRODUCE SNOW CHANCES
AND MENTION POSSIBILITY IN HWO. SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL FOLLOW FOR
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND MODERATING
TEMPERATURES. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS ON SUNDAY WITH A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH SOUTHWEST KANSAS...BUT APPEARS AT
THIS POINT PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL STAY SOUTH OF THE LOCAL
AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1034 PM MDT SAT MAR 28 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. WINDS WILL BE SHIFTING AND INCREASING
DURING THE FIRST COUPLE OF HOURS IN THE PERIOD AS A PREFRONTAL
TROUGH AND THEN A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. NEAR 08Z THE
FRONT SHOULD MOVE THROUGH WITH AN INCREASE IN SUSTAINED SPEEDS
INTO THE 15 TO 20 KNOT RANGE WITH GUSTS AROUND 25 KNOTS. AFTER THE
SUN COMES UP AND MIXING OCCURS THE SUSTAINED WINDS AND GUSTS WILL
INCREASE ABOUT 5 TO 10 KNOTS AND CONTINUE UNTIL MID AFTERNOON.

BY THAT TIME THE WINDS WILL STILL BE GUSTY BUT DECREASING. BY LATE
IN THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING THE WINDS WILL LOSE THEIR
GUSTINESS AND BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 219 AM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

SMALL THREAT FOR DRY THUNDERSTORMS EXISTS BEFORE 6 AM MDT (8 AM
CDT) AS COLD FRONT PASSES ALTHOUGH CURRENT TRENDS SUGGEST THIS
THREAT IS VERY LOW. STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BRING A PERIOD OF
STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS AROUND 30 MPH TODAY AS WELL AS KEEPING DRY
AIR FIRMLY IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA. COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THREAT TODAY...ALTHOUGH A BRIEF PERIOD OF
CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED ALONG THE INITIAL COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

OTHERWISE AS TEMPERATURES WARM EXPECT AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES TO
FALL TO LESS THAN 15 PERCENT ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE TRI STATE
AREA...ESPECIALLY EASTERN COLORADO...THROUGH TUESDAY. SHOULD
CONFIDENCE IN HIGHER WINDS INCREASE FIRE WEATHER WATCH COULD BE
ISSUE ON MONDAY OR TUESDAY.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JRM
LONG TERM...024
AVIATION...BULLER
FIRE WEATHER...JRM


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