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000
FXUS63 KGLD 151127
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
527 AM MDT SAT JUN 15 2013

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 407 AM MDT SAT JUN 15 2013

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN WILL BE LOCATION/CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS INTO
THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. SATELLITE SHOWING AN AMPLIFIED PATTERN
FROM THE CENTRAL PACIFIC INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. PATTERN GETS
COMPLICATED FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC INTO WESTERN NORTH AMERICA.
FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS NEAR THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PORTION OF THE
AREA. THERE APPEARS TO BE A SECONDARY FRONT MOVING IN FROM THE NORTH.
THESE FRONT(S) LOCATION(S) WILL BE KEY TO WHERE BEST THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES WILL BE.

AT JET LEVEL INITIALIZED WELL. AT MID LEVELS...THE NAM AND CANADIAN
DID THE BEST. MODELS TENDED TO BE A LITTLE TOO MOIST AT THIS LEVEL.
THE NAM WAS DOING THE BEST WITH THE SURFACE WIND/PRESSURE FIELD. ON
THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL FIELD...MODELS TENDED TO BE A TOUCH COOL BUT
THE GFS...CANADIAN AND THE NAM WERE DOING THE BEST. MODELS WERE
OVERDOING THE PRECIPITATION AT THIS TIME WITH THE LATEST ECMWF
THE CLOSEST TO REALITY. AGAIN WILL BE A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST.
MODELS DIFFER ON THE DETAILS WHICH COULD MAKE A BIG DIFFERENCE PLUS
SOME OF THE MODELS ARE SUFFERING FROM CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK ISSUES.

TODAY/TONIGHT...WEAK RIGHT REAR QUADRANT WILL AFFECT THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN PORTION OF THE AREA IN THE MORNING. ALSO AT THE SAME TIME
WHAT IS LEFT OF THE WEST TEXAS UPPER SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
EASTERN PORTION. COMBINATION OF LIFT AND INSTABILITY WOULD SUPPORT
SOME MORNING THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EAST. AT THIS TIME...RADAR IS
SHOWING RETURNS IN THAT AREA. SO WILL HAVE AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE
IN THE EAST THIS MORNING.

THEN THE FORECAST FIGURATIVELY BECOMES MORE CLOUDY. LOOK TO GET
SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING AFTER THIS SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH. AT THE SAME
SAME TIME EITHER THE WAFFLING FRONT OVER THE AREA OR A SECONDARY
SURGE/FRONT MOVES DOWN ACROSS THE AREA. BY THE END OF THE DAY IT IS
DRAPED NEAR THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA. HARD TO FIND VERY
STRONG OR ORGANIZED MID LEVEL LIFT AS WELL DURING THE DAY WITH
BETTER MID LEVEL LIFT MOVING THROUGH DURING THE NIGHT. LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON...MODELS ARE SHOWING THE RIGHT REAR QUADRANT NEAR/OVER THE
NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE AREA AND CONTINUES THAT WAY INTO THE
EVENING. THE LIFT FROM THE RIGHT REAR QUADRANT STRENGTHENS THROUGH
THE REST OF THE NIGHT. SOME OF THE MODELS BY THE END OF THE NIGHT ARE
HINTING AT A COUPLED JET STRUCTURE WHICH WOULD MAINLY AFFECT THE
NORTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA.

BY THIS AFTERNOON...INSTABILITY AXIS SETS UP OVER THE SOUTHERN AND
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. CONSIDERING THE PROXIMITY OF THE
UPPER JET AND WEAK MID LEVEL LIFT IN THAT AREA...CONFINED THE BEST
TO THE WEST AND SOUTH IN THE MID AND LATE AFTERNOON. MODELS GET
CONFUSED AT MID LEVELS DURING THE NIGHT AND ARE OUT OF PHASE WITH
EACH OTHER IN REGARDS TO WHERE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND RIDGE IS OVER
THE AREA. THIS IS PRIMARILY DUE TO CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK ISSUES.
FRONT STARTS OUT SOUTH OF THE AREA DURING THE EVENING AND THEN COMES
BACK NORTH DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THUNDERSTORMS COULD HAPPEN
ABOUT ANYWHERE WITH THE LIFT AND INSTABILITY THE MODELS ARE SHOWING
BUT THERE IS ABSOLUTELY NO AGREEMENT. GEFS PROBABILITY INDICATES
THE SOUTHERN HALF WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE WITH MUCH HIGHER POPS
THAN WHAT I HAVE IN THERE. SO BROADBRUSHED POPS. IT IS POSSIBLE
THAT COVERAGE COULD INCREASE AS THE NIGHT GOES ON. SOME POSSIBILITY
OF SEVERE WITH THE INSTABILITY IN PLACE AND VEERING WIND PROFILE
WITH HEIGHT. SOME POSSIBILITY OF FOG IN LOCATIONS THAT DO NOT GET
STORMS DURING THE NIGHT BUT CHOSE TO NOT MENTION AT THIS TIME.

MODELS SHOWING A COOLER AIR MASS. WITH UNFAVORABLE EASTERLY WINDS
LOWERED MAXES.

SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT...LIFT FROM THE UPPER JET CONTINUES ACROSS THE
AREA THROUGH THE DAY AS IT GRADUALLY SHIFTS TO THE EASTERN HALF BY
THE END OF THE DAY. LIFT FROM THE UPPER JET IS NEAR THE EASTERN
PORTION OF THE AREA OR JUST EAST BY LATE IN THE EVENING. MODELS SHOW
A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVING THROUGH DURING THIS ENTIRE
TIME WITH LITTLE IN AGREEMENT FROM THE MODELS ON POSITION AND
STRENGTH. ALSO CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK PROBLEMS MAKE IT HARD TO PIN
DOWN SPECIFIC AREAS FOR PRECIPITATION.

SO CHOSE TO HAVE LINGERING THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MORNING. THEN
INCREASE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON AND NIGHT AS THESE SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS MOVE THROUGH. THIS COULD ALSO BE A BIG SEVERE WEATHER DAY
DUE TO THE EASTERLY SURFACE WINDS UNDERNEATH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER WITH THE EASTERLY WINDS AND THE
CLOUD COVER AROUND.

MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT...WEAK RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OF THE JET MOVES
NEAR/OVER THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA BY LATE IN THE DAY.
WEAK LIFT FROM A RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OF THE UPPER JET REMAINS NEAR
OR OVER THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE NIGHT. MODELS CONTINUE TO BE
BOTHERED BY FEEDBACK PROBLEMS. MID/UPPER RIDGE APPEARS TO HOLD IN
PLACE OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE AREA AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
MOVES THROUGH IN A WESTERLY FLOW. LIFT AND PRECIPITATION LOOK TO BE
CONFINED TO THE WEST AND KEPT THE HIGHEST POPS THERE. BIG
DIFFERENCE IN MODEL OUTPUT IN REGARDS TO HIGH TEMPERATURES. WITH THE
EASTERLY FLOW IN PLACE KEPT TEMPERATURES ON THE COOLER SIDE OF
GUIDANCE.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 AM MDT SAT JUN 15 2013

AT THE START OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON
THE POSITION OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES AND ITS
SLOW PROGRESSION EASTWARD. A FEW EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES WILL PASS
THROUGH THE AREA AND IN COMBINATION WITH SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL PROVIDE FORCING FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY. BY LATE WEEK ECMWF IS A LITTLE SLOWER WITH THE
EASTWARD PROGRESS OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND IS LESS AMPLIFIED
WITH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TROUGH.

FOR THURSDAY AND BEYOND MID LEVEL TRAJECTORIES FAVOR MUCH WARMER AIR
AND A STRONGER CAP. THIS SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO SUPPRESS CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT DESPITE CONVERGENCE ALONG SHARPENING DRYLINE AND
TRANSIENT WEAK SHORTWAVES IN SOUTHWESTERLY MID/UPPER FLOW.
DIFFERENCES IN MEDIUM RANGE MODELS WITH THE TIMING AND
CHARACTERISTICS OF PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED PACIFIC NORTHWEST TROUGH
LEAVES TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY FOR CONFIDENCE IN POPS AT THE END OF THE
PERIOD. ECMWF IS LESS AMPLIFIED AND KEEPS HEIGHT FALLS NORTH OF OUR
AREA AS THE TROUGH MOVES SLOWLY EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 527 AM MDT SAT JUN 15 2013

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 18 HOURS. SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON BUT CONFIDENCE
IN TIMING AND PLACEMENT IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH FOR ADDITION OF PREVAILING
TSRA. INCLUDED VCTS AT GLD SINCE COVERAGE OF CONVECTION SHOULD BE
GREATER IN THE VICINITY OF GLD THIS AFTERNOON. IF THUNDERSTORMS DO
APPROACH TAF LOCATIONS...VARIABLE WIND SPEEDS AND DIRECTIONS WILL
PROBABLY OCCUR FOR AT LEAST A SHORT TIME. LOW STRATUS IS A POSSIBILE
TOWARD THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW FOR
INCLUSION AT THIS TIME GIVEN UNCERTAINTIES WITH HOW CONVECTION
EVOLVES THIS EVENING AND POTENTIALLY OVERNIGHT.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM...BRB
AVIATION...BRB