Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 231159
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
559 AM MDT THU JUN 23 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 249 AM MDT Thu Jun 23 2016

Ongoing early morning convective activity continues eastward
across southwest KS today along a frontal boundary that extends
eastward into western Missouri and is laid up along the front
range on the western side. Convective activity is expected to
reinitiates later today along the front range and frontal
boundary where moisture has pooled and the instability axis is
located. Scattered storms will move east across the region
overnight. The is currently a slight risk of severe storms over
east central Colorado extending into west central Kansas. The main
threat will be winds and large hail with some localized heavy
rainfall possibly producing some flash flooding during the evening
hours.

The stronger westerly flow aloft remains well north of the
forecast area, but several weaker short wave trough move east of
the Rockies and across the central high plains through the short
term period. These short waves are appearing as diurnally driven
convective feedback features in the models as each of them seem to
appear over the higher terrain late each afternoon and move east
over the plains states during the afternoon and overnight hours
as they weaken downstream. As a result, expect isolated to
scattered late afternoon and evening thunderstorms to move across
the forecast area again Friday and Saturday. Additionally a cold
front will move across the central high plains region during the
day on Saturday in advance of the upper low moving east of the
northern Rockies and across the northern high plains in the
vicinity of U.S./Canada border. This will provide a good focus for
afternoon storms on Saturday.

Temperatures are expected to be above normal with highs rising
well into the 90s again on Friday, and backing off somewhat into
the 80s and lower 90s again on Saturday with the passage of the
cold front.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 249 AM MDT Thu Jun 23 2016

The extended period starts off dry before chances for showers and
thunderstorms return to the forecast. On Sunday, an area of upper
high pressure develops over the desert southwest as ridging builds
across the the western CONUS behind the departing low over eastern
Canada. Dry conditions are anticipated.

Zonal flow aloft becomes northwesterly early next week as the ridge
persists over the western half of the country. Shortwaves pass
through the flow over the area Monday through Wednesday, generating
shower and thunderstorms chances each period. At this time, the
better chance for precipitation appears to be Monday night and
Tuesday night when more moisture is present.

Temperatures in the low to mid 90s are expected Sunday and Monday
before a slight cool down, with highs in the 80s by Wednesday. Low
temperatures will be in the 60s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday morning)
Issued at 330 AM MDT Thu Jun 23 2016

VFR conditions are expected with scattered thunderstorms moving
across the region between 20z and 03z at gld and 01z-06z at mck.

&&

.GLD Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LOCKHART
LONG TERM...JBH
AVIATION...LOCKHART



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