Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 151015

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
415 AM MDT Tue Aug 15 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Thursday night)
Issued at 334 AM MDT Tue Aug 15 2017

A series of short wave troughs that have been moving through the
base of the main upper trough over the intermountain region begin
lifting out east of the Rockies today and across the Central High
Plains over the Plains states from tonight through Wednesday
evening. Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop an move
across the forecast area this afternoon and tonight as the
deepening surface low stretching from southeast Wyoming to
eastern New Mexico today moves east across the High Plains tonight
and drags a cold front along with it. Severe storms are expected
with hail and wind as the main threats with isolated tornados
possible near boundaries.

Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will continue across the area
through the day on Wednesday as the short wave troughs aloft
continue to lift across the region with some stabilization of the
atmosphere Wednesday night in the wake of the exiting upper short
wave trough.

The remainder of the upper trough over the western U.S. begins to
lift out east of the Rockies on Thursday, and appears to come
into phase with a short wave trough extending southward from a low
center over south central Canada through the northern plains into
the central high plains on Thursday night. Moist return flow along
with some instability with warmer temperatures will produce
isolated to scattered thunderstorms that will move across the area
late Thursday into Thursday night.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Tuesday)
Issued at 239 AM MDT Tue Aug 15 2017

At the start of the extended the models are showing zonal flow over
the region with a longwave trough upstream coming off the northern
Rockies and deepening. This longwave looks to pass over the region
Friday night through Saturday morning. Following by upper level
ridging Saturday night then a return to zonal flow the rest of the
period with a series of mid level shortwave within this flow moving
across the local area. Meanwhile on the surface, the tail end of a
frontal boundary, associated with the longwave trough, will pass
over the local area on Friday. Drier conditions are expected through
most of the weekend and into next week. However, there will be areas
that see chance of showers and possible storms due to the short wave
troughs moving over the area. Daytime highs looks to be near


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
Issued at 1149 PM MDT Mon Aug 14 2017

VFR conditions forecast for the TAFs. There may be a light shower
that moves over KGLD within the hour, but shouldn`t reduce
conditions. Otherwise main focus is the storms that will move
in from the west tomorrow with a cold front. Storm coverage will
increase during the late afternoon and through the evening.




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