Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 240807
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
207 AM MDT SAT SEP 24 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 542 PM MDT Fri Sep 23 2016

Area of locally intense winds have developed across eastern
colorado with winds gusts up to 46 kts observed for a bit near
KITR. Think there will be some diurnal weakening...but these winds
will likely loft a few areas of blowing dust for the next few
hours and have amended forecast to account for this.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 145 PM MDT Fri Sep 23 2016

Large upper low near SLC is organizing a surface low in north-
central Colorado which will ultimately move into NE/SD overnight.
Resultant tight pressure gradient will continue to generate gusty
south winds to 40 mph through the afternoon...diminishing
somewhat this evening to SSE 20-30. Later tonight a surge of
cooler air will arrive as winds shift to northwest.

Main concern/uncertainty in the short term is the initation and
evolution of convection later this afternoon and overnight. Wind
shear is strong but instability not all that great. Forecast cinh
values remain fairly impressive this evening east of the Colorado
border so storm coverage is somewhat uncertain. Models struggle
to produce much in the way of storms this evening, especially for
areas further south, but as main shortwave swings out into Kansas
overnight models end up generating a band of showers and
thunderstorms after midnight. Thinking main threat is strong wind
gusts, but if an elevated supercell develops isolated large hail
cannot be ruled out.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Friday)
Issued at 207 AM MDT Sat Sep 24 2016

Dry conditions are expected in the beginning of extended before
precipitation chances return during the latter half of the work
week. High temperatures remain relatively steady in the upper 70s to
low 80s throughout the forecast while lows rise from the 40s into
the 50s.

At the start of the period, northwesterly flow is anticipated aloft
with a trough over the eastern CONUS while a ridge develops over the
western half of the country. The ridge pushes east over the Plains
Tuesday and Wednesday, keeping dry conditions in place. An upper
level disturbance moves into the Four Corners on Wednesday and
advances across the region Thursday and Thursday night. This upper
disturbance brings thunderstorm chances back to the area, with the
better chance Thursday night, lingering into Friday. Guidance agrees
on the track of this shortwave, but there are still some differences
with timing that will continue to be monitored.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night)
Issued at 1143 PM MDT Fri Sep 23 2016

Scattered thunderstorms will continue to drift to the east across
the area...bringing low vfr conditions and gusty winds. Based on
recent trends...this activity will be clear of area by 10z.
Otherwise VFR conditions are expected for the period.


&&

.GLD Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JRM
SHORT TERM...DLF
LONG TERM...JBH
AVIATION...JRM



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