Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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000
FXUS63 KGLD 200528
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
1128 PM MDT FRI AUG 19 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 540 PM MDT Fri Aug 19 2016

Updated forecast to better reflect current precipitation trends as
large portion of CWA has been and will remain precipitation free
for another few hours.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 206 PM MDT Fri Aug 19 2016

The cold front that pushed trough the forecast area overnight has
plunged into the Panhandle region of the southern High Plains with
cooler air backed up against the front range of the Colorado
Rockies. The surface low that has deepened along this front is
lifting out along the front draped across central Kansas towards
southeast Nebraska.  Ongoing overnight showers and thunderstorms
that continued through the morning have reintensified this afternoon
ahead of the surface low as they encountered a more unstable airmass
and are being aided by the associated shortwave through aloft that
will continue across Kansas and Nebraska this evening.

Additional thunderstorms are developing this afternoon over the
Rockies from southern Montana through Wyoming and into Colorado as
the main upper trough begins to swing through the northern plains
tonight.  Expect the main area of storms associated with this
feature to remain well north of the forecast area as they move
east and dissipate across Nebraska overnight. Another area of storms
should transition southward along the front range of Wyoming and
Colorado as the trough swings east with some of these storms moving
over the plains and possibly making it into the far western sections
of the forecast area this evening before dissipating around midnight
tonight.

Temperatures across the forecast area will remain cool through
Saturday with highs only in the 70s as high pressure moves into the
plains states and the upper trough swings towards the Great Lakes
region.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday)
Issued at 132 PM MDT Fri Aug 19 2016

Forecast issues will be how much temperatures rise the beginning of
next week and the chances of rainfall beginning in the middle of
next week. Satellite showing showing an amplified flow from the
central Pacific into eastern North America.

Saturday night...Area under subsidence as strong system digs into
the north central portion of the country. Potentially a really cool
night as light and variable winds will be in place as a result of
the surface winds moving through and to the east of the area.
Considering what the analysis is showing upstream, did lower the
low temperatures a little and went toward the cooler guidance.

Sunday/Sunday night...Ridging and much drier air mass pushes over
the area. This will keep conditions dry. Southerly winds will
increase, getting close to breezy, and will bring in warmer air.
Models may be a little warm considering the cooler start and
southerly winds will probably have some recycled cool air in it.

Monday...Ridging flattens and gets pushed east as next trough
develops/moves into the western portion of the country. Strong upper
system is in the northern portion, over southwest Canada, of this
trough. Surface focus looks to remain to the west of the area
through the day. Weak shortwave trough will still be out to the
west. Air mass is still pretty dry and the lift is weak and still
out to the west. So will keep it dry for now. Air mass looks
warmer and raised a few degrees from the expected Sunday maxes.

Monday night through Friday...Next cold front moves into the area at
the beginning of this period. A lee side/prefrontal surface is over
the western portion of the area in advance of this next cold front.
As result of these boundaries, and another front later in the week,
and several shortwave troughs moving through the mean trough/west to
northwest flow aloft will make for a cooler and more active period.
After above normal high temperatures on Tuesday, the remainder of
the period looks to near to a little below normal. There looks to be
a chance for thunderstorms each day with Thursday and thursday
night having the least chance. The forecast blend catches this
nicely, is reasonable, and did not make any changes.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night)
Issued at 1128 PM MDT Fri Aug 19 2016

For KGLD...a mix of MVFR/VFR thru 08z Saturday with ceilings
ranging from ovc015 to ovc050. From 08z onward...VFR with a mix of
scattered mid/high clouds. Winds north 15-25kts thru 11z
Saturday...then diminishing to 5-10kts. Northeast winds around
10kts possible after 02z Sunday.

For KMCK...Mainly VFR conditions expected with broken mid cloud
deck around 060-080 giving way to SKC by 12z Saturday. Period of
MVFR ceilings around ovc015 from 06z-08z. Winds north around 10kts
thru 12z Saturday...then northwest around 10kts.

&&

.GLD Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JRM
SHORT TERM...LOCKHART
LONG TERM...BULLER
AVIATION...JN



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