Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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000
FXUS63 KGLD 280219
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
819 PM MDT THU AUG 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 819 PM MDT THU AUG 27 2015

AREAL COVERAGE OF REMAINING RW/TRW ACTIVITY IS NOW FOCUSED SOUTH
OF INTERSTATE 70...AND HAVE ADJUSTED FORECAST TO ACCT FOR THE
TREND IN RADAR COVERAGE OVER PAST COUPLE HOURS. LOOKING FOR PRECIP
OVERALL TO BEGIN TO WANE A BIT QUICKER THAN EARLIER FORECAST AS A
RESULT. NO OTHER CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 211 PM MDT THU AUG 27 2015

A SHORTWAVE MOVING DOWN THE EAST SIDE OF THE RIDGE WILL IMPACT THE
FA TONIGHT.  THE RIDGE WILL REBUILD OVER THE ROCKIES FRIDAY. A
SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE FA TONIGHT.  HIGH PRESSURE
WILL MOVE INTO THE PLAINS ON FRIDAY BEHIND THE EXITING SHORTWAVE.

THE MODELS SHOW THE MOISTURE WITH THE INCOMING SHORTWAVE WEST OF THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE MOVING NORTHEAST WITH THE H7 TROUGH.  MOISTURE
ACROSS THE FA APPEARS NOT AS FAVORABLE THIS EVENING. IN ADDITION,
THE SURFACE TROUGH IS ALREADY HALFWAY ACROSS THE FA. DUE TO THIS,
PLAN TO GO WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WEST OF THE TROUGH AND CHANCE
POPS EAST.  POPS WILL DECREASE TO SLIGHT CHANCE OVER THE EASTERN FA
AFTER 06Z.  FRIDAY WILL BE DRY WITH NIL POPS DUE TO SUBSIDENCE AND
DECREASING MOISTURE.

MIN TEMPERATURES TONIGHT SHOULD COOL TO THE LOWER 60S. MAX
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY SHOULD RISE TO THE MID AND UPPER 80S.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 223 PM MDT THU AUG 27 2015

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL INITIALLY DOMINATE PATTERN OVER OUR
CWA...WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH
SUNDAY. BY SUNDAY NIGHT RIDGE SHIFTS EAST AND SW FLOW DEVELOPS
ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES...PERSISTING THROUGH THE REMAINING
EXTENDED PERIODS. PLUME OF PACIFIC MOISTURE ALONG WITH SERIES OF
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ROTATING THROUGH THE MEAN FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING
PRIMARILY AFTERNOON/EVENING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TO OUR CWA. POSITION
OF SURFACE TROUGH/QUASI STATIONARY FRONT WILL DETERMINE LOCATION
OF BEST THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AND INITIATION...AND THERE IS ENOUGH
VARIANCE BETWEEN EXTENDED GUIDANCE TO LOWER OVERALL CONFIDENCE ON
WHERE TO PAINT HIGHER POPS. IT IS A FAVORABLE PATTERN FOR
THUNDERSTORMS...I AM JUST NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH YET TO RAISE POPS
ABOVE 20/30 RANGE AT THIS POINT. WHILE TEMPERATURES TRENDS THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK SHOULD BE TOWARDS HIGHS IN THE 90S...IF
FRONT IS FURTHER SOUTH I COULD SE HIGHS CLOSER TO SEASONAL VALUES
IN THE MID-UPPER 80S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 531 PM MDT THU AUG 27 2015

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS FOR BOTH TAF SITES WITH SCT-BKN060-120.
SOME VCSH POSSIBLE FROM 00Z-07Z. 5-6SM IN PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE FROM
10Z-14Z FRIDAY...ESPECIALLY FOR KMCK. WINDS NW SHIFTING TO THE
NORTH BY 14Z FRIDAY...AT 5-10KTS. SOME GUSTS NEAR 20KTS THRU 06Z
TONIGHT AND AFTER 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JN
SHORT TERM...FS
LONG TERM...DR
AVIATION...JN



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