Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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000
FXUS63 KGLD 232336
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
536 PM MDT THU APR 23 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 112 PM MDT THU APR 23 2015

LOW CLOUDS THAT WERE PRESENT ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE MORNING
HOURS CONTINUED TO LINGER FOR SOME LOCATIONS ACROSS THE TRI STATE
AREA IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON ON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY...HOWEVER
MOST LOCATIONS WERE UNDER PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.  RAP 500 MB
ANALYSIS AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACROSS
THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS REGION...HOWEVER A LONGWAVE TROUGH ACROSS
THE GREAT BASIN REGION WAS MOVING EASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS.

THE ADVANCING TROUGH WILL BRING SOME POCKETS OF HIGHER POTENTIAL
VORTICITY VALUES ACROSS THE TRI STATE AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT...WHICH WILL HELP DESTABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE AND CAUSE
STORMS TO DEVELOP.  A SURFACE STATIONARY BOUNDARY TO THE WEST ALONG
THE COLORADO FRONT RANGE WILL ALSO PROVIDE THE NEEDED PUSH AT THE
SURFACE TO GET STORMS GOING.  MOST MODEL GUIDANCE HAS INITIATION
OCCURRING SOMETIME BETWEEN 21 AND 00Z IN EASTERN COLORADO WITH
STORMS GETTING GOING BY 00Z.  PROFILE CAPE BETWEEN 1000 AND 1500
J/KG AND BULK SHEAR BETWEEN 30 AND 35 KTS MAY BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE
SOME STORMS TO PRODUCE LARGE HAIL...AND DRY MID LEVELS IN MODEL
SOUNDINGS WITH DCAPE BETWEEN 800 AND 1000 J/KG COULD RESULT IN
DAMAGING WINDS GUSTS.  THE SHEAR VALUES DIMINISH OVERNIGHT...BUT
CAPE WILL STILL BE PRESENT OVERNIGHT AS STORMS MOVE EASTWARD.
THEREFORE...EXPECTING STORMS TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT FOR SOME
LOCATIONS.

THE SURFACE STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN DRAPED ACROSS
THE TRI STATE AREA OVERNIGHT...WHICH WILL BRING SOUTHEAST WINDS AT
THE SURFACE AND INCREASED RELATIVE HUMIDITIES OVERNIGHT.  AS A
RESULT...FOG WILL DEVELOP AND CLOUD COVER WILL REMAIN INCREASED
OVERNIGHT.  EXPECTING LOW TEMPERATURES TO BE SLIGHTLY WARMER AS A
RESULT OF THE BLANKETING CLOUD COVER IN THE UPPER 40S.

FOG AND LOWER CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH TOWARD THE EARLY TO MID
MORNING HOURS...BUT CLOUDS WILL RETURN DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON AS
A SURFACE WARM FRONT APPROACHES THE TRI STATE AREA.  RAIN SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP IN THE LATE MORNING TO EARLY
AFTERNOON HOURS...MAINLY EAST OF HIGHWAY 83.  CAPE VALUES AROUND
1000 J/KG AND BULK SHEAR BETWEEN 35 AND 40 KTS WILL BRING SOME
SEVERE POTENTIAL WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...ALTHOUGH THE
MAIN ATMOSPHERIC DYNAMICS ARE WELL EAST OF OUR FORECAST AREA.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 241 PM MDT THU APR 23 2015

THE UPPER TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW MOVING ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY
WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT ENE AS A CLOSED LOW FRIDAY NIGHT WITH WEAK
SHORT WAVE RIDGING ALOFT OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS ON SATURDAY.
SATURDAY LOOKS MOSTLY DRY BETWEEN SYSTEMS WITH THE NEXT LOW
PRESSURE CENTER DIVING INTO THE SOUTHWEST U.S. SOUTH OF THE
4-CORNERS REGION DURING BY SUNDAY MORNING. THE LOW ALOFT MOVES
INTO THE WEST TEXAS PANHANDLE REGION BY MONDAY MORNING...MOVING
SLOWLY INTO POSITION OVER EAST TEXAS AND EAST OKLAHOMA BY TUESDAY
MORNING AS THE SURFACE LOW TRACKS FURTHER SOUTH ALONG THE GULF
COAST OF TEXAS.

WITH THE MAIN LOW PRESSURE AREA ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL U.S. WELL
SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA...THE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT TIME FRAME WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH
A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...BUT EXPECT THE BULK
OF THE PRECIPITATION TO STAY OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY SHOULD BE DRY AS THE AMPLIFYING RIDGE OVER THE
WEST COAST MOVES OVER THE ROCKIES AND HIGH PLAINS REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 530 PM MDT THU APR 23 2015

KGLD...A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA THIS EVENING AND FOR NOW KEPT VCTS IN THE FORECAST. AFTER
ACTIVITY MOVES AWAY FROM THE TERMINAL WE SHOULD SEE STRATUS/FG/BR
AND MAYBE SOME LIGHT DRIZZLE MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTHEAST AROUND 06Z
AND LINGER THROUGH 15Z OR SO BEFORE WEST THEN NORTHWEST WINDS
AROUND 10KTS MOVE IN PUSHING THE LOW CLOUDS EAST OF THE TERMINAL
AND ALLOWING VFR CONDITIONS TO RETURN.

KMCK...SHOULD HAVE VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 06Z THEN QUICKLY BECOME
MVFR AROUND 07Z THEN IFR/VLIFR BY 09Z. THE VLIFR CONDITIONS WITH
FOG/BR AND MAYBE SOME DRIZZLE SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH 16Z BEFORE
IMPROVING QUICKLY TO VFR BY 17Z OR SO.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MK
LONG TERM...LOCKHART
AVIATION...99



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