Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 212028
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
228 PM MDT Fri Apr 21 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This afternoon through Saturday)
Issued at 228 PM MDT Fri Apr 21 2017

Latest RAP analysis shows mid-upper low pressure over our CWA. WV
imagery supports two distinct mid to upper level circulations:
one over southeast Colorado and another near west central Kansas.
A deep moist plume extends across our CWA while there was some
clearing across southern Colorado that eventually filled back int
with CU field developing.

This afternoon-tonight: Precip shield (light-moderate) continues to
impact the majority of our CWA, though there has been drier more
stable air in the northeast keeping coverage limited there . There
is still an indication by short range guidance that this activity will
slowly decrease in coverage through the late afternoon and then
transition eastward. An instability axis has developing in southeast
Colorado where better thunderstorm coverage is occurring and in
region of our CWA closer to the upper low circulation in that region
we may see a set up for non supercell funnels to develop before
sunset. Will need to monitor, but threat looks better southwest of
our CWA. Current guidance has trended towards precip ending across
much of our CWA by late tonight with a little weak forcing on back
side of system in our far west possibly supporting a few light
showers lingering into the late night hours.

Regarding temps tonight: Models show low level moisture pooling in
our far west and this could support low stratus or even patch fog
development. While air mass will support temps below 36 over our
west, the combination of wet ground and lingering cloud cover create
poor radiational conditions and frost is not currently anticipated
despited cooler temps.

Saturday: Clearing should occur from the northwest, while I am
concerned cloud cover could linger across our west if stratus holds
on. Cold pool will be present, but with almost no CAPE if we do not
clear in the west and develop good low level lapse rates I am
skeptical we would see showers redevelop in the afternoon.
Particularly with subsidence aloft. Temperatures should warm to near
seasonal normals (60s) in our east where afternoon clearing is more
likely. I am less confident in highs in the west where clouds could
linger.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday)
Issued at 212 PM MDT Fri Apr 21 2017

Dry weather starts out the long term period before the return of an
active pattern. Temperatures climb through Monday and decrease
thereafter.

Warming temperatures and dry conditions result from a ridge building
over the region Saturday night and Sunday. The combination of clear
skies, light winds, and temperatures bottoming out in the low/mid
30s leads to the potential for frost Saturday night into Sunday
morning. Winds do begin to strengthen in the morning which may
inhibit frost development, especially over the western portion of
the forecast area, but stay lighter further east.

Southerly winds peak in the afternoon as a lee trough develops along
the Rockies. Wind gusts of 30 to 40 mph are possible, making for a
windy day. Flow aloft turns zonal Sunday evening as the ridge
progresses east.

The next system travels across the northern Plains on Monday, with
most of its precipitation up in the Dakotas. However, there is a
chance some showers could develop as far south as locations north of
I-70 as the wave moves through and a cold front pushes south.
Another disturbance traverses the High Plains on Tuesday along with
a second blast of cooler air, dropping temperatures and generating
precipitation chances.

A stronger trough forms over the western CONUS on Wednesday and
pushes east onto the Plains through Friday, bringing the region a
better opportunity for precipitation. Rain showers and the
occasional chance for some thunder linger through the end of the
work week with this system. There are differences in the timing,
location, and strength of this feature, so will have to wait to
pinpoint details.

Temperatures climb from the low/mid 70s on Sunday to the 70s/low 80s
on Monday. Cooler air filters in and temperatures gradually decrease
into the upper 50s/low 60s by Thursday. With the exception of
Saturday night, lows are generally in the upper 30s and 40s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 1119 AM MDT Fri Apr 21 2017

Rain showers continue to move across northwest Kansas and
southwest Nebraska. Moderate showers over NW Kansas have reduced
cigs to IFR and VIS 3-6 SM at KGLD this morning and this will
continue to be possible through the early afternoon. I couldn`t
rule out vis below 3sm, but this is more likely to be very
brief and not worth adding to TAF. MVFR conditions are more
likely at KMCK with lighter precip. Isolated thunderstorms can`t
be ruled out, but coverage is not worth vicinity mention at this
time.

This activity should transition eastward and decrease in
intensity through 00Z, with precip possibly ending at KMCK first.
Both terminals should see VFR conditions by the mid evening hours.
There is a chance that lingering low level moisture near the
Colorado state line could support fog or stratus redevelopment
towards KGLD 09Z-14Z, but confidence is low that this would impact
the terminals (more likely over eastern Colorado). Winds should
shift from the southeast to the north as a front moves across the
region, with winds tonight and Saturday morning below 10kt.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...JBH
AVIATION...DR


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