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000
FXUS63 KGLD 161135
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
535 AM MDT SUN JUN 16 2013

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 426 AM MDT SUN JUN 16 2013

FORECAST CONCERNS WILL COVERAGE AND SEVERITY OF THUNDERSTORMS ALONG
WITH PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. SATELLITE SHOWING
AN AMPLIFIED AND BLOCKY PATTERN OVER THE PACIFIC WHICH THEN
TRANSLATES INTO A FLATTER MORE PROGRESSIVE FLOW OVER THE COUNTRY.
NUMEROUS SMALL SCALE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS LOCATED WITHIN THIS FLOW.
HARD TO TELL WITH ALL THE CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BUT STALLED FRONT WAS
DRAPED NEAR THE SOUTHERN END OF THE FORECAST AREA. AIR MASS HAS
THROUGH MID LEVELS SINCE YESTERDAY.

AT JET LEVEL THE GFS AND CANADIAN INITIALIZED THE BEST ON THE JET
SEGMENT NEAR OUR AREA AT THIS TIME. MODELS DID FINE AT MID LEVELS
WITH THE ECMWF SLIGHTLY WORSE THAN THE REST. HARD TO TELL DUE TO
CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW...BUT THE FRONT MAY HAVE BEEN PUSHED FURTHER
SOUTH. AT THIS TIME...THE NAM LOOKS LIKE IT HAS THE BEST HANDLE
OUTSIDE OF THE HRRR. ON THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL FIELD...THE NAM...UKMET
AND CANADIAN WERE DOING THE BEST WITH THE ECMWF TOO COOL AND THE
COOLEST.

TODAY/TONIGHT...RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OF THE JET STARTS OUT OVER THE
NORTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA AND SAGS SOUTH THROUGH THE DAY AND
WEAKENS. AT THIS TIME YOU CAN SEE THE RESULT WITH SOME SPOTTY
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SO WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE THROUGH THE
MORNING. ALSO WITH THE EXTENSIVE MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER
DECIDED TO REMOVE THE MENTION OF PATCHY FOG. MODELS HAD ALSO BACKED
OFF OF THAT AS WELL.

MODELS HAVING TROUBLE IN DECIDING WHERE TO PUT THE CURRENT FRONT
THAT IS MEANDERING OVER OUR AREA. THE OVERNIGHT CONVECTION HAS MADE
THAT A LITTLE MORE DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE
THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOW PUSHED IT A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH. EVEN WITHOUT
THIS MESOSCALE AFFECT...MODELS WERE DISAGREEING ON THE POSITION.
SOME KEEP IT FURTHER SOUTH/WEST AND OTHERS...MAINLY THE NAM AND GFS
MOVE IT NORTH AND EAST THIS MORNING BEFORE SAGGING IT BACK
FURTHER SOUTHWEST IN THE AFTERNOON. CONSIDERING THE MESOSCALE
AFFECTS AND THE UNCHANGING FLOW PATTERN ALOFT KEEPING THE SURFACE
TROUGH TO OUR WEST IN THE SAME PLACE...AM SKEPTICAL THAT THE FRONT
WILL MOVE BACK TOO FAR NORTHEAST. POSITION OF BOUNDARY WILL BE
CRITICAL FOR PLACEMENT/DEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS AND SUBSEQUENT
MCS THAT IS EXPECTED TO BARREL ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT.

AGAIN MODELS ALL MUDDLED WITH THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY TO MOVE THROUGH
WITH THE SAME KIND OF PROBLEM ON JET PLACEMENT. MODEL DO HINT AT/SHOW
A DECENT PV ANOMALY MOVING IN FROM THE WEST LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
THIS EVENING. INSTABILITY AXIS SETS UP OVER THE WESTERN PORTION THIS
AFTERNOON. VERY GOOD LAPSE RATES WITH WHAT LOOKS TO BE DEEP LIFT
THROUGH TONIGHT. SO FELT A LITTLE MORE CONFIDENT IN RAISING POPS TO
HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. CONSIDERING THAT
AND HOW LAST NIGHT PLAYED OUT...FELT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO ADD SEVERE
WORDING TO THE FORECAST THROUGH THIS EVENING. ALSO WITH SLOWER STORM
MOVEMENTS AND PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 1.5 TO NEARLY 2 INCHES...
EXPECT MODERATE TO LOCALLY RAINFALL WITH THESE STORMS.

KEPT MAXES FAIRLY WARM. HOWEVER...THAT WARMING COULD BE
SLOWED/STOPPED WITH DEVELOPING CONVECTION/CLOUD COVER. AS TONIGHT...
MINS WILL BE DETERMINED BY RAIN COOLED AIR FROM MCS THAT IS EXPECTED
TO COME ACROSS.

MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT...LOOKS QUIET IN THE MORNING AS AREA RECOVERS
FROM OVERNIGHT CONVECTION. MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE RIDGING LOOKS TO BE
IN PLACE UNTIL LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. BY THE MIDDLE OF THE DAY...WEAK
RIGHT REAR QUADRANT DEVELOPS NEAR THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA.
ALSO MODELS ARE HINTING THAT THE ENTIRE AREA MAY BE IN A COUPLED JET
STRUCTURE. BY THE END OF THE DAY THE MODELS DIFFER ON POSITION OF THE
JET BUT DO SHOW SOME KIND OF LIFT FROM THE UPPER JET CONTINUING IN
THE AFTERNOON. RIGHT REAR QUADRANT CONTINUES TO AFFECT THE AREA
THROUGH THE NIGHT.

LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER PV ANOMALY/SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES TOWARD THE AREA
IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. INSTABILITY AXIS
SETS UP OVER THE WESTERN HALF IN THE AFTERNOON WITH LITTLE TO NO
CAP. EITHER EASTERLY SURFACE FLOW WILL BE AROUND OR THE FRONT WILL
CONTINUE TO BE DRAPED ACROSS THE CENTER OF THE FORECAST AREA. FOR
THE LAST TWO DAYS THE MODELS HAVE KEPT A STRONG SIGNAL FOR A
CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ON THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO OUR
NORTHWEST AND THEN MOVING IT TOWARD THE SOUTH SOUTHEAST TO
SOUTHEAST ALONG THE INSTABILITY AXIS. QUESTION WILL BE HOW FAR EAST
THE THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX MAKES IT SINCE STORM MOVES ARE SLOW TOWARD
THE SOUTHEAST. KEPT THE HIGHEST POPS IN THE WEST. AS WITH TODAYS
PRECIPITATION CHANCES...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THESE POPS WILL NEED TO
BE RAISED IF CURRENT TRENDS CONTINUE. PRECIPITABLE WATER GOES DOWN
SOME BUT STORM MOVES ARE SLOWER THAN THEY WERE THE DAY BEFORE. SO
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE A THREAT.

MAXES LOOK COOLER AND COULD BE MADE EVEN COOLER BY EARLIER
DEVELOPING CLOUD COVER.

TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT...MODELS ARE ALL OVER THE PLACE. DAY BEGINS
WITH MID LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE AREA. MODELS
ARE GENERATING A GENEROUS AMOUNT OF QPF IN THE MORNING WITH WHAT
LOOKS TO BE MINIMAL FORCING. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH BEGINS TO COME
THROUGH BY LATE MORNING. MODELS MAY BE TOO AGGRESSIVE DUE TO
CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK PROBLEM. SO TO POSSIBLE ACCOUNT FOR LINGERING
CONVECTION FROM OVERNIGHT ACTIVITY OR ACCOUNT FOR AN INCOMING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH...SEPARATED THE MORNING OUT WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS. DUE TO A LOT OF DISAGREEMENT OF MODELS AND HIGH
DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY...WENT AHEAD AND KEPT THE PREVIOUS
PRECIPITATION FORECAST INTACT. MODELS WANT TO MAKE IT COOLER BUT
THAT MAY BE A PRODUCT OF OVERPRODUCING THE PRECIPITATION. MADE ONLY
A SLIGHT ADJUSTMENT TO THE MAXES AS A RESULT.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 230 AM MDT SUN JUN 16 2013

AT THE START OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE
LOCATED OVER THE AREA WITH A TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
MODELS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT ON THE PLACEMENT AND TIMING OF
A SHORTWAVE PASSING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE EARLY
WEDNESDAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS OUR EASTERN COUNTIES.

THE RIDGE AXIS WILL BE EAST OF THE AREA ON THURSDAY BUT MID LEVEL
HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY RISE AS THE RIDGE STRENGTHENS TO OUR
EAST OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS AND MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THE TREND OF
RISING HEIGHTS CONTINUES THROUGH THE REST OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
THIS IN COMBINATION WITH SOUTHWESTERLY MID LEVEL TRAJECTORIES
RESULTING IN A CAPPING ELEVATED MIXED LAYER OVER THE AREA SHOULD
LIMIT CONVECTION. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND LESS
PROGRESSIVE AND FURTHER NORTH WITH PACIFIC NORTHWEST TROUGH.
ALTHOUGH THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN PLACEMENT AND TIMING...BOTH GFS
AND ECMWF INDICATE A SLIGHT SHIFT TO MORE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WITH
WEAK EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES TRAVERSING THE AREA LATE FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY. THIS COULD BE ENOUGH FOR ISOLATED CONVECTION...ESPECIALLY
ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 531 AM MDT SUN JUN 16 2013

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT BOTH TAF SITES WITH THE EXCEPTION
OF AT THE VERY START OF THE PERIOD AT MCK. THE VISIBILITY HAS
DROPPED TO MVFR CATEGORY AND THIS SHOULD LAST JUST AN HOUR OR TWO
BEFORE IMPROVING TO VFR CATEGORY LATER THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE...A
SIMILAR SITUATION TODAY AS YESTERDAY WITH THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING
DURING THE AFTERNOON POTENTIALLY IMPACTING BOTH LOCATIONS.
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE MORE WIDESPREAD THAN YESTERDAY SO THERE IS
A HIGHER LIKELIHOOD FOR BOTH SITES TO BE IMPACTED. INCLUDED VCTS
AT BOTH SITES. CONFIDENCE IN WIND DIRECTION AND SPEED LATER THIS
AFTERNOON IS LOW GIVEN THE EXPECTED COVERAGE OF CONVECTION.
VARIABILITY IN SPEED AND DIRECTION CAN BE EXPECTED WHEN
THUNDERSTORMS APPROACH THE TAF SITES. THERE IS AGAIN THE POSSIBILITY
OF SOME LOW STRATUS AND FOG EARLY TOMORROW MORNING BUT CONFIDENCE
IS TOO LOW FOR INCLUSION AT THIS TIME.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM...BRB
AVIATION...BRB