Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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000
FXUS63 KGLD 141631
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
1031 AM MDT Sat Oct 14 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1031 AM MDT Sat Oct 14 2017

Update to forecast sent to update cloud cover for western zones
based on current satellite...remove mention of morning fog in
western portions of the CWA and to adjust daytime highs for all
areas based on current positioning of approaching front...and
cloud cover east. no other changes made.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Monday night)
Issued at 315 AM MDT Sat Oct 14 2017

Today-tonight...an upper level trough centered near southwest
Wyoming/northeast Utah early this morning is forecast to move into
the forecast area by mid to late afternoon and exiting the area by
midnight. Main weather impact today will be very strong northwest
winds.

Will have extensive low cloudiness and areas of fog this morning
ahead of approaching cold front. Once the front arrives rapid
clearing expected.

NAM 3 hour pressure rises of 5-8mb reach the northwest 1/3 of the
area by 21z increasing to a very impressive 7-11mb by 00z with 800mb
winds as high as 60kts. GFS quite a bit lower with 40-50kt 800mb
winds. Regardless, MET/MAV/LAMP guidance all show sustained winds
across the western 1/2 of the area in the 30-36kt range with higher
gusts, further east a bit lower but still windy. Local wind gust
program showing wind gusts to 48kts across the western 1/2 of the
area with 30-40kts further east. All in all guidance in very good
agreement and as a result will be increasing wind forecast. Winds
will slowly and steadily decrease this evening and be below 10kts
after midnight.

Blending better performing bias corrected grids and 850mb
temperatures from the past few days supports raising high
temperature forecast to reflect low to mid 60s across far southwest
Nebraska to the mid 70s from Hill City to points south of the
interstate. Temperatures likely will fall from west to east during
the afternoon as the cold front arrives. Low temperatures tonight in
the mid 20s to near 30 in far eastern Colorado with low to mid 30s
east of the CO/KS border. A Freeze Watch will remain in place for
the first 2 rows of counties east of the KS border.

Sunday-Sunday night...forecast area under northwest flow aloft with
very dry air suggesting a sunny sky during the day and clear sky
during the night. Should see afternoon temperatures in the low to
mid 60s with low temperatures in the low to mid 30s.

Monday-Monday night...although forecast area remains under northwest
flow aloft 500mb heights slightly rise with 850mb temperatures
warming about 10-13f. Current high temperature forecast in the low
to upper 70s looks good. Low temperatures in the mid 30s to low 40s.
Little if any cloudiness through the period.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Friday)
Issued at 315 AM MDT Sat Oct 14 2017

The extended forecast looks to be dry and warm. Upper flow will
transition from NW to zonal to SW by Friday. No real moisture in the
CWA until Saturday. This is when our next weather system begins to
approach the area and will bring us our next chance of
precipitation. One note...While current forecasted temperatures show
70s for highs through the week, 80s will be a distinct possibility
and will be adjusted as we get closer in time.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday morning)
Issued at 315 AM MDT Sat Oct 14 2017

For KGLD, VLIFR conditions expected from taf issuance through
about 13z or 14z with winds from the southeast to south under
10kts. After 15z rapid clearing expected with skc conditions
returning. West-northwest winds around 12kts expected by 16z
shifting to the northwest 20-25kts with higher gusts through 18z.
From 19z-00z sustained northwest winds 30-35kts with higher gusts
expected. Winds slowly and steadily decrease through midnight and
by 08z should be below 10kts.

For KMCK, IFR/VLIFR conditions expected from taf issuance through
about 15z or 16z with winds variable under 5kts. From 17z through
the rest of the taf period vfr conditions return. West-northwest
winds around 12kts expected by 18z with sustained winds around
30kts with higher gusts from 21z-00z. Similar to KGLD winds slowly
and steadily decrease this evening falling below 10kts by 08z.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 315 AM MDT Sat Oct 14 2017

Near critical fire weather conditions are possible from around 12 PM
MDT (1 PM CDT) through 5 PM MDT (6 PM CDT) today generally south of
Interstate 70 and west of highway 25. Outdoor burning is highly
discouraged. In this area relative humidity will flirt with 15 percent
with northwest winds increasing rapidly as a cold front approaches.
Gusts to 50 mph are expected.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...Freeze Watch from late tonight through Sunday morning for KSZ001-
     002-013-014-027-028-041-042.

CO...NONE.
NE...Freeze Watch from late tonight through Sunday morning for NEZ079-
     080.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JN
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...SME
AVIATION...99
FIRE WEATHER...99


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