Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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146
FXUS63 KGLD 231358
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
758 AM MDT Fri Jun 23 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 758 AM MDT Fri Jun 23 2017

Update issued to adjust pops for rw/trw based on current radar
trend. Most of the morning precip is currently south of
Interstate 70 with only scattered showers and maybe an isolated
storm thru midday before beginning to clear out. No other changes
at this time.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday night)
Issued at 315 AM MDT Fri Jun 23 2017

Today-tonight...post frontal moisture/clouds in the 850-700mb layer
hugs the Colorado front range and eastern plains through 18z before
slowly dissipating this afternoon. A batch of moisture in the 700-
500mb layer is currently moving into the area from the northwest and
is forecast to quickly exit the area by 18z leaving a sunny sky for
the rest of the day. Will have some showers/possible thunderstorms
for a few hours this morning as the disturbance moves through.
Afternoon temperatures should peak in the mid 60s to low 70s in far
eastern Colorado with low to mid 70s elsewhere. Breezy to windy
north to northeast winds this morning slowly decreasing in the
afternoon. For tonight some mid level clouds move over the area from
the west/northwest. One such batch reaches the far northwest and
northern zones around 12z and could be enough to produce a sprinkle
or two. Low temperatures in the upper 40s to low 50s.

Saturday-Saturday night...will have quite a bit of cloudiness in the
morning as a pocket of mid level moisture remains over the area
under northwest flow aloft. Temperatures in the mid to upper 70s may
be enough to support a few rain showers from the moisture generally
north of the interstate. Moisture continues to move into the area
from the northwest during the night and will have to keep a mention
of precipitation in the forecast. Low temperatures in the low to
perhaps mid 50s.

Sunday-Sunday night...will have to continue at least a slight chance
for precipitation through the period for much of the area as
northwest flow aloft continues to bring weather disturbances across
the area. High temperatures remain below normal with low to mid 70s
with overnight lows in the low to mid 50s.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Thursday)
Issued at 158 AM MDT Fri Jun 23 2017

Will start the period under upper ridging, but that quickly
weakens leaving a zonal flow in the middle of the week. A
northern stream shortwave trough moves across the northern plains
late in the period.

Models show occasional chances for showers and thunderstorms each
day through the long term period. These appear to be tied to
difficult to time shortwaves embedded in the upper flow. As for
severe chances, deep layer shear will be strong each day,
generally 40 -50 kts. Instability starts the period rather weak,
but by Tuesday moderate to strong instability is forecast,
especially in eastern portions of the area. As a result, hard to
rule out severe storms, but because of the weak forcing coverage
will be scattered at best.

Temperatures will be below normal on Monday, near normal on
Tuesday and near to slightly above normal Wednesday and Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday morning)
Issued at 315 AM MDT Fri Jun 23 2017

For KGLD and KMCK, vfr conditions expected through the period.
Both terminals should see north to northeast winds gusting around
30kts or so through the morning hours before slowly decreasing in
the afternoon. For tonight winds generally under 6kts. Showers and
thunderstorms are possible during the morning hours as a weather
disturbance moves across from the northwest. Activity may be too
isolated to include in the forecast for both terminals but will
make an attempt to get specific right at taf issuance time. Could
see reduced visibilities and cigs which would produce mvfr
conditions.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JN
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...024
AVIATION...99



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