Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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000
FXUS63 KGLD 211654
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
954 AM MST FRI NOV 21 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 944 AM MST FRI NOV 21 2014

JUST COMPLETED AN UPDATE. FIRST THING WAS TO RAISE MAXES.
MESOSCALE GUIDANCE THAT DID WELL YESTERDAY IS CATCHING THE RISE IN
TEMPERATURES. GUIDANCE APPEARS TO RUNNING COOL AGAIN AS IT HAS
DONE HERE RECENTLY. SKY COVER AND POSSIBLE FOG FOR LATER THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT WILL BE THE NEXT PROBLEM.

CURRENT MID DECK OF CLOUD COVER IS LEAVING AS EXPECTED. LARGE AREA
OF LOW CLOUD COVER TO OUR SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST. THE RAP AND HRRR
APPEAR TO BE CATCHING THIS BEST. THOSE MODELS BRING NOT ONLY
STRATUS BUT SOME FOG AND DRAMATICALLY REDUCED VISIBILITIES INTO
OUR EASTERN COUNTIES LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. DID
INCREASE SKY COVER BUT HAVE NOT ADDED ANY FOG YET. WOULD LIKE TO
WATCH TRENDS FOR A LITTLE WHILE LONGER BEFORE ADDING THIS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 218 AM MST FRI NOV 21 2014

EARLY MORNING SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RAP UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOW
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER NORTHEAST US WITH ZONAL PATTERN ACROSS THE
WESTERN US. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS ALONG THE CENTRAL ROCKIES WITH
HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE PLUME ASSOCIATED WITH 10-15KFT CLOUD DECK
ACROSS NW KANSAS.

REGARDING MORNING FOG POTENTIAL THIS MORNING...BEYOND SREF
PROBABILITIES CONTINUING TO HIGHLIGHT FOG ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN AND
EASTERN CWA NAM/SREF/HRRR NOT SHOWING REDUCED VIS OR MUCH IN THE
WAY OF SATURATION. TD VALUES HAVE INCREASED WITH SOUTHERLY
FLOW...HOWEVER CLOUD COVER HAS LIMITED DIURNAL COOLING KEEPING TD
DEPRESSIONS HIGHER THAN PREVIOUSLY ADVERTISED. AS THESE CLOUDS
SHIFT NORTH WE COULD START TO SEE LOW LEVELS SATURATE SO I DO NOT
WANT TO COMPLETELY RULE OUT FOG...AND HAVE LEFT PATCHY FREEZING
FOG MENTION IN PLACE.

TODAY...OPAQUE CIRRUS (AND ANY STRATUS THAT DEVELOPS) WILL
QUICKLY TRANSITION NORTH. GOOD WAA WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE
REGION SHOULD SUPPORT HIGHS AT LEAST AS WARM AS WEDNESDAY FOR MOST
(MID 50S). CLOUD COVER COULD LINGER LONGER IN THE EAST...SO DID
NOT GO QUITE AS HIGH AS FULL MIXING WOULD SUGGEST.

SATURDAY...WAA INCREASES ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY WITH H85 TEMPS WARMING TO AROUND 12C. ASSUMING SIMILAR
MIXING TO THE LAST 3 DAYS...AND CLEAR SKIES...WE SHOULD SEE TEMPS
IN THE 60S ACROSS OUR CWA...POSSIBLY INTO THE UPPER 60S AT A FEW
LOCATIONS. RH VALUES DO DROP BELOW 20 PERCENT...HOWEVER EVEN IF A
FEW LOCATIONS REACH 15 PERCENT THRESHOLD FOR RFW...WIND GUSTS WILL
REMAIN BELOW 25 MPH BASED ON CURRENT ADVERTISED WINDS ALOFT.

SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY NIGHT...STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES OUT OF
THE CANADIAN ROCKIES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY SUNDAY...KICKING
A COLD FRONT SOUTH SATURDAY. THIS WILL BRING SEASONAL HIGH TEMPS
IN THE UPPER 40S/AROUND 50 SUNDAY. WINDS WILL INCREASE BEHIND
THIS FRONT WITH GUSTS 30-40 MPH POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY DURING THE
DAY SUNDAY.

JET STREAK ROTATES AHEAD OF MAIN CLOSED LOW CENTER ACROSS
NEBRASKA WITH LARGE SCALE FORCING INCREASING SATURDAY NIGHT AND
TRANSITIONING SOUTH AND EAST SUNDAY. GFS/ECMWF BOTH SHOWING LIGHT
QPF OVER OUR CWA...WHILE NAM KEEPS US DRY. THERE IS A SUB CLOUD
LAYER ABOUT 7-9KFT OF TD DEPRESSIONS AROUND 30F...WHICH LOWERS
CONFIDENCE OF ANY MEASURABLE PRECIP REACHING THE SURFACE. MODELS
ARE SATURATING THE MID LEVELS...WITH WEAK INSTABILITY WITHIN THIS
SATURATED LAYER...SO I DONT WANT TO COMPLETELY RULE OUT PRECIP. I
INTRODUCED FLURRY/SPRINKLES SATURDAY-SUNDAY MORNING FOR NOW...WITH
LOW CONFIDENCE ON MEASURABLE.

WINDY CONDITIONS AND THICK CLOUD COVER SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT WHICH MAY KEEP LOW LEVELS MIXING AND HOLD UP
OVERNIGHT LOWS DESPITE COLDER AIR FILTERING INTO THE PLAINS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 218 AM MST FRI NOV 21 2014

MONDAY...UPPER LOW ROTATES SLOWLY EAST TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES
DURING  THE DAY LIFTING SLOWLY NORTHEAST TOWARD THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES OVERNIGHT. WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE VARYING DEGREES OF
CLOUDINESS THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. STILL LOOKING LIKE A WINDY DAY
WITH NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING 35 TO 40 MPH. GFS/ECMWF STILL HAVE
SOME DISAGREEMENT ON TEMPERATURES WITH THE ECMWF SHOWING 850MB
TEMPS SUPPORTING MID 30S NEAR MCCOOK TO THE LOW 40S ACROSS THE
REST OF THE AREA. GFS A FEW DEGREES WARMER. NO MAJOR CHANGES MADE
AND WILL GO WITH LOW TO MID 40S ACROSS THE AREA FOR NOW. LOWS
TONIGHT MID/UPPER TEENS IN EASTERN COLORADO AND AROUND 20
ELSEWHERE. THIS IS CLOSE TO THE CONSMOS GUIDANCE WHICH HAS
PERFORMED THE BEST AT THIS TIME RANGE THE PAST 7 DAYS.

TUESDAY...FORECAST AREA REMAINS UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW BUT 500
HEIGHTS  START TO RISE AS EAST COAST TROUGH STARTS TO MOVE AWAY
AND LOSE ITS INFLUENCE OVER THE AREA WHILE TO THE WEST UPPER RIDGE
AXIS STARTS TO MOVE ASHORE ALONG THE WEST COAST. ECMWF 850MB
TEMPERATURES SLOWER TO RESPOND AND MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM THE
WEST COMPARED TO THE GFS. THIS LEADS TO A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST
OF LOW TO MID 40S FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES. THESE TEMPERATURES ARE
CLOSE AGAIN TO THE CONSMOS GUIDANCE WHICH AT THIS TIMEFRAME HAS
PERFORMED THE BEST THE PAST 7 DAYS. LOWS UPPER TEENS TO MID
20S...CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. PLENTY OF MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS MOVE IN FROM THE NORTHWEST DURING THE DAY LEADING TO
SOME PARTIAL SUNSHINE AND SLOWLY MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA DURING
THE NIGHT.

WEDNESDAY...00Z GFS/ECMWF IN BETTER AGREEMENT AT 850MB BRINGING
MUCH  WARMER TEMPERATURES INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST. FOR THE
EASTERN PART OF THE AREA (MCCOOK AND HILL CITY AREAS) PROXIMITY TO
VARIABLE OR EASTERLY WINDS MEANS FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE AREA AND
UNLIKELY TO SEE FULL MIXING AND HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER 40S LOOKS
GOOD. FURTHER WEST ALONG AND WEST OF THE CO/KS BORDER BOTH
ECMWF/GFS HAVE 850MB TEMPERATURES IN THE 10C-13C RANGE WHICH WOULD
SUPPORT HIGHS CLOSER TO 60 VS CURRENT FORECAST OF AROUND 50/LOW
50S. WONT MAKE ANY CHANGES THIS GO-AROUND AS THE UPPER PATTERN
SHOWING DIFFERING SOLUTIONS WHICH COULD EVENTUALLY LEAD TO LARGER
DISCREPANCIES CLOSER TO THE SFC. LOWS UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S. WILL
ALSO BE CARRYING A LOW CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WEDNESDAY NIGHT BUT
LOOKING AT 850-500 MOISTURE CONFIDENCE NOT ALL THAT HIGH.

THURSDAY/THANKSGIVING...LONG RANGE MODELS SHOWING LITTLE AGREEMENT
IN UPPER AND LOW LEVEL PATTERNS. EXTENDED PROCEDURE SEEMS TO
FAVOR THE COLDER GFS SOLUTION VS THE MUCH WARMER (850MB TEMPS)
ECMWF SOLUTION. NO CHANGES MADE AND WILL GO WITH HIGHS IN THE MID
30S TO AROUND 40 WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS AND A
CHANCE OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 426 AM MST FRI NOV 21 2014

GUIDANCE HAS BACKED OFF ON FOG POTENTIAL. CLOUD COVER HAS LIMITED
COOLING AND KEPT LOW LEVELS FROM SATURATING DESPITE INCREASING LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH. WHILE CLEARING SKIES AT KGLD AROUND
SUNRISE MAY SUPPORT COOLING TEMPS...SURFACE WINDS AROUND 10KT
WOULD KEEP LOW LEVELS MIXED THIS MORNING LIMITING LOCALIZED FOG
DEVELOPMENT. I KEPT VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING FOR BOTH KGLD AND
KMCK TAFS. WINDS DURING THE DAY MAY GUST TO 15-20KT WITH DAYTIME
MIXING...MAINLY AT KGLD. WINDS AROUND 10KT WILL BEGIN TO THE
SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST AT KGLD AFTER SUNSET AS SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE BEGINS TO SLIDE EAST.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...BULLER
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...DR


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