Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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000
FXUS63 KGLD 180859
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
259 AM MDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 259 AM MDT THU SEP 18 2014

A MIX OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ACROSS THE FORECAST AREAS THIS MORNING
WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING IN THE 60S. CURRENTLY...SFC RIDGE REMAINS
TO OUR NORTH AND EAST WITH A LOW LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING OUT ACROSS
THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL SYSTEM ODILE DO RESIDE
OVER THE SW PORTIONS OF THE COUNTRY. FOR TODAY THOUGH WILL HAVE
AREAS OF FOG THRU MID MORNING GIVING WAY TO MSUNNY/SUNNY SKIES. A
WARM DAY IS ON TAP YET AGAIN FOR THE ENTIRE AREA. SOUTHERLY FLOW
WILL BRING STRONG WAA INTO THE AREA AND WITH 925MB TEMPS REACHING
NEAR +28C TO +30C OVER THE CWA...WILL HAVE HIGHS AROUND 90F. WINDS
WILL BE ON THE INCREASE GOING INTO THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH
SFC TROUGH TO OUR WEST AND HIGH PRESSURE EAST OF THE REGION. TOWARDS
MORNING AS GRADIENT TIGHTENS...EXPECTING SOME GUSTS NEARING 30 MPH.
NOT EXPECTING FOG AS AIRMASS SHOULD BE WELL MIXED WITH EXPECTED WIND
REGIME.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 259 AM MDT THU SEP 18 2014

THE MAIN WX FEATURE FOR FRIDAY ON INTO THE THE FIRST HALF OF THE
WEEKEND WILL BE THE INTERACTION OF TROUGH/FRONT MOVING OFF THE
ROCKIES...AND THE REMNANTS OF ODILE WHICH ARE SET IN THE MODELS TO
MAINLY PASS TO OUR SOUTH. EXPECTING WINDS TO SHIFT TO MORE SSW THRU
THE DAY FRIDAY AS FRONT SHIFTS EASTWARD. LOOKING FOR BREEZY
CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP WITH POTENTIAL FOR GUSTS NEAR 40 MPH. THIS SET
UP WILL DRAW TROPICAL MOISTURE NORTHWARD INTO THE REGION LATE IN THE
DAY FRIDAY RIGHT THRU SATURDAY NIGHT BEFORE SYSTEM CLRS REGION BY
12Z SUNDAY. MODELS DO DIFFER THOUGH ON AMOUNTS OF QPF EXTENT INTO
THE CWA AND WILL DEPEND ON TIMING AND POSITIONING OF FRONT AS IT
COMES OFF THE EASTERN ROCKIES. HAVE INCREASED POPS TO SHOW FROPA
THRU AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY BFR TAPERING OFF SATURDAY
NIGHT. MOST OF QPF SHOULD REMAIN TO THE SOUTH CLOSEST TO ODILE SO
HAVE HIGHEST POPS THERE. ALSO PUT IN MENTION OF TRW. TEMPS DURING
THIS TIME WILL BE ON A SLOW DOWNTREND WITH INCREASING CLDS/PRECIP
OVER AREA. FRIDAY WILL BE CLOSE TO 90F WITH MOST AREAS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 80S AND SATURDAY INTO THE LOW 80S AT BEST. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
DROP INTO THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S.

THERE ARE TWO SYNOPTIC SCALE FEATURES OF INTEREST DURING THE
EXTENDED PERIOD. ONE IS A FAIRLY INTENSE UPPER TROUGH THAT WILL MOVE
QUICKLY ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES REGION ON SUNDAY
AND ACROSS THE EASTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY MONDAY AND TUESDAY. A
COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH WILL MAKE IT THROUGH MUCH OF
THE FORECAST AREA BY EARLY MONDAY BRINGING COOLER TEMPERATURES. THE
SECOND FEATURE IS A CLOSED UPPER LOW THAT WILL DRIFT EASTWARD ACROSS
THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY TUESDAY AS IT TRANSITIONS
TO MORE OF AN OPEN WAVE. FORCING WITH THIS SYSTEM IN AN INCREASINGLY
MOIST ENVIRONMENT SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
FROM LATE MONDAY THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. AT LEAST MINOR DIFFERENCES
IN MEDIUM RANGE DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE WITH PLACEMENT AND TIMING OF
BOTH SYSTEMS LEADING TO SOME UNCERTAINTY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1147 PM MDT WED SEP 17 2014

VFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS FORECAST FOR THE 6Z TAFS. SOUNDINGS FOR
KMCK SHOW A SATURATED LAYER 1.5K FT DEEP. ABOVE THAT LAYER THE
ENVIRONMENT DRIES OUT...WITH BREEZY SOUTHEAST WINDS AT THE TOP OF
THE SATURATED LAYER POSSIBLY MIXING THE DRIER AIR INTO THE
SATURATED LAYER. SEEMS THIS SETUP USUALLY FAVORS STRATUS MORE
THAN FOG...SO WILL KEEP VIS IN THE MVFR CATEGORY. STRATUS SHOULD
CLEAR BY EARLY AFTERNOON FOR KMCK.

FOR KGLD MVFR VIS SEEMS APPROPRIATE GIVEN COLBY IS ALREADY DOWN TO
4 MILES. THERE COULD BE SOME DENSER FOG JUST NORTH OF THE SITE.
HOWEVER WITH MOS NOT FAVORING MORE THAN MVFR RESTRICTIONS AND
SINCE SOUNDINGS FOR KGLD ALSO SHOW BREEZY WINDS AT THE TOP OF THE
SATURATED LAYER...DO NOT BELIEVE THE VIS. SHOULD DROP BELOW 3SM.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JN
LONG TERM...JN/BRB
AVIATION...JTL


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