Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 092117

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
217 PM MST Sat Dec 9 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This afternoon through Sunday)
Issued at 217 PM MST Sat Dec 9 2017

Northwest flow remains in place across the Central High Plains, and
WV imagery and RAP analysis indicates subsidence region migrating
over our CWA.

This afternoon: Red flag conditions (RH 15% or lower/winds gusting
25mph) are occurring over eastern Colorado and in the last hour have
started in far northwest Kansas. Ultimately we may not meet 3hr of
these conditions before winds begins to decrease in the next hour or
so, but I will let Red Flag Warning play out as conditions are
ongoing and it is close enough considering the very dry fuels.

Tonight-Sunday: Downslope develops as BL flow shifts more to a
westerly direction in Colorado and WAA increase late tonight through
Sunday. Air mass will moderate and we may see mixing overnight and
enough wind to limit radiational conditions in our east. I trended
overnight lows up some (near 30F), but may still be low. Highs
Sunday should be in the 60s, and with very low Tds still expected we
may reach 15% RH across much of our CWA. Gradient weakens some from
the west to the east, and winds ultimately may not be strong enough
for RFW consideration. If we mix well enough in the east it is
possible locations east of the CO state line might see a window for
critical fire weather conditions in the afternoon. This would
likely be less than 3hr over a smaller area in our east and
confidence isn`t high enough for issuance yet.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday)
Issued at 115 PM MST Sat Dec 9 2017

For the extended period...little change expected in the forecast
from previous runs. Models continue to have strong H5/H7 ridging
over the western portion of the country...with a trough/upper low
combo over the east. Several shortwaves will work down along the
east side of the upper ridge during the upcoming week. These systems
will work SE into the Central Plains region before moving east and
eventually get caught up in the circulation of the low/trough over
the east.

While these systems will come thru dry...winds will end being the
main focus with their passage. Low level jet associated with
Monday`s shortwave passage could mix down 850-700 mb winds in the 45-
60kt range from 18z-00z. Consmos has been consistent in showing this
for past few days so have used instead of forecast blend. Shortwaves
for the latter portion of the week will also bring potential for
breezy/windy conditions for the afternoon hours.

These winds combined with the dry conditions will bring about low RH
readings...with many days 20 percent or less...especially along and
west of Highway 25/27. This will bring about critical/near critical
Fire Wx conditions for the afternoon hrs. Up first will be Monday


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday morning)
Issued at 225 AM MST Sat Dec 9 2017

For KGLD and KMCK, vfr conditions through the period. For KGLD
northwest winds today should gust near 30kts while at KMCK
northwest winds look to be around 13kts with a few higher gusts.
For tonight west to west-northwest winds in the 10 to 15 kt range
for both terminals. Little if any cloudiness expected.


KS...Red Flag Warning until 5 PM MST /6 PM CST/ this afternoon for

CO...Red Flag Warning until 5 PM MST this afternoon for COZ252>254.

NE...Red Flag Warning until 5 PM MST this afternoon for NEZ079.



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