Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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000
FXUS63 KGLD 162021
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
121 PM MST Mon Jan 16 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This morning through Wednesday night)
Issued at 350 AM MST Mon Jan 16 2017

Winter storm continues to impact our CWA with freezing rain ongoing
from the CO border eastwards, and reports of snow further west in
eastern CO. Dual pol melting layer in eastern CO matches well with
obs as proxy on freezing rain/snow line, with Wray and Yuma already
reporting snow west of this. Using max Tw aloft from RAP analysis as
a proxy, warm nose is still in place near the CO border with 3-4C
temps aloft in our eastern CWA. Instability is in place as moderate
showers are leading to pockets of higher freezing rain accumulation
across our east. Another large area of moderate freezing rain over
SW Kansas is also transitioning northward towards our south-
southeast CWA.

Transition to snow is still expected as upper low moves north-
northeast, however there is a window this morning were moderate
freezing rain will continue and warnings were kept in place to
account for this. Transition to snow should continue in eastern CO
and expectation is that both ice and snow amounts will remain below
warning criteria for these western locations, so our remaining
eastern CO counties were downgraded to advisory.

Regarding snow today: A dry slot currently over south central Kansas
may try to move into our eastern CWA as trowal transitions north-
northeast complicating snow amounts. NAM/GFS/RAP keep this east
while ECMWF/SREF have it moving into our east. Deformation band of
snow is expected to develop by late morning over our CWA, but there
is still uncertainty in how quickly this shifts northeast what what
influence the dry slot could have. At the very least moderate snow
accumulations are still possible east of the CO state line. The
timing of the WSW was not changed to account for the potential for
moderate-heavy snow lingering through the afternoon. When the Ice
Storm Warning is replaced we will need to decide if we need a
product to cover the snow for locations in our southeast where dry
slot could have some influence.

Tonight-Wednesday night: Other than a brief period of lift
associated with a second shortwave drier air will support snow
ending this evening. Dry conditions are then expected with warming
temperatures. Another upper low may move into the region by
Wednesday night but models show a dry layer in place limiting
precip chances. Confidence is still low on highs despite
moderating temps aloft due to possible impact of lingering ice and
snow accumulations post winter storm.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 121 PM MST Mon Jan 16 2017

For the extended period...latest GFS/ECMWF models have been trending
the past several runs with zonal H5 flow across the northern half
of the country...with a cutoff low setting up over south central
portions of the country. This upper level system makes a slow push
northward towards the Central Plains by Friday...lifting across
the Central Plains Friday night...followed by another quick moving
system that pinwheels into the region off the Central Rockies for
the upcoming weekend.

With the cutoff system anchored over south central portions of the
country for the first half of the extended...surface high pressure
mainly east...with troughing over the front range. This will give
the area near to above normal highs Wednesday into Friday...before
trending colder as the approach of the two aforementioned systems
will bring increased cloud cover with the chance for precip.

Looking for daytime highs to reach the 40s with a trend lower into
the upcoming weekend. Depending on the speed of these two
systems...highs could be affected by several degrees due to the
strength of the CAA on the wrap-around/exiting side of each low.
Overnight lows will range in the 20s.

For precip...limited qpf at present to keep pops in chance category
for now...but speed of each system thru the area combined with some
upslope effects on the easterly/southeasterly flow could give the
area enhanced precip especially at night in terms of -sw based on
expected temps. Warm enough during the day for -rw.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 1016 AM MST Mon Jan 16 2017

For KGLD...with the winter storm slowly winding down over the
area...looking for 2sm or less thru 20z this afternoon in light to
moderate snowfall...ceilings ovc003-006. From 20z-00z 3-5sm in
light snow with ceilings ovc010 or less. By 00z Tuesday...becoming
VFR with bkn035...scattering out by 05z. Winds north 10-15kts with
gusts to 25kts thru 00z Tuesday. 00z Tuesday onward...WNW around
10kts.

For KMCK...with winter storm winding down...looking for any
rain/snow mix becoming all snow by 21z this afternoon. Visibility
will range mainly 2-4sm during this time...w/ periods down to
1/2sm at times from 18z-21z. Ceilings ovc015 down to below ovc010
at times. By 23z this afternoon...light snow showers with persist
with ceilings ovc010 increasing to bkn040 by 06z Tuesday. Winds
north 10-20kts thru 23z...then WNW around 10kts.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...Winter Storm Warning until 7 PM MST /8 PM CST/ this evening for
     KSZ001>003-013-014-027.

     Winter Weather Advisory until 7 PM MST /8 PM CST/ this evening
     for KSZ004-015-016-028-029-041-042.

CO...Winter Weather Advisory until 7 PM MST this evening for
     COZ090>092.

NE...Winter Storm Warning until 7 PM MST /8 PM CST/ this evening for
     NEZ079>081.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...JN
AVIATION...JN



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