Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 161741
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1141 AM MDT WED APR 16 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1036 AM MDT WED APR 16 2014

ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY THROUGH MID-AFTERNOON FOR ALL BUT THE
NORTHEAST COUNTIES. APPEARS THAT THE STRONGEST BELT OF NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL BE OVER THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL CWA INTO EARLY AFTERNOON
BEFORE SLOWLY DECREASING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 707 AM MDT WED APR 16 2014

UPPER FLOW WILL BE WESTERLY TODAY.  FLOW TURNS NORTHWESTERLY TONIGHT
AND CONTINUES THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.  A RIDGE MOVES INTO THE
ROCKIES FRIDAY AND INTO THE PLAINS FRIDAY NIGHT. A FRONT MOVES INTO
THE CENTRAL PLAINS EARLY THIS MORNING. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT AND CONTINUE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS
THROUGH FRIDAY.  A SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO EASTERN COLORADO
FRIDAY NIGHT.

THE GFS AND NAM BOTH INDICATE CONSIDERABLE CHANGE IS NECESSARY TO
THE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.  BOTH CONTINUE TO BRING THE
BEST MOISTURE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FA BUT THE AREA IS FURTHER SOUTH
SO THAT ONLY A SMALL PART OF THE SOTUHERN FA WILL BE IMPACTED. THE
TIMING OF BEST MOISTURE IS IN THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.  THE REST OF THE
FA WILL HAVE LIMITED MOISTURE AND SUBSIDENCE.  SHOWERS MAY LINGER IN
THE FAR SOUTHERN FA THURSDAY MORNING, OTHER THAN SOME LATE AFTERNOON
INSTABILITY VIRGA SHOWERS (THE TQ INDEX IS AROUND 14) IN THE FAR
NORTHWEST THE REST OF THE FA WILL BE DRY. THE NET RESULT IS THAT
POPS WILL BE LOWERED SIGNIFICANTLY WITH POPS ONLY OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN FA. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE VERY MINOR COVERING MAINLY
WESTERN PORTIONS OF KIT CARSON AND CHEYENNE COUNTIES IN COLORADO.
REMAING PERIODS THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE DRY DUE TO LACK OF
MOISTURE AND SUBSIDENCE.

SURFACE WINDS MAY APPROACH WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA THIS MORNING FOR A
COUPLE OF HOURS AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH.  GUIDANCE AND MODEL DATA
INDICATE A SHORT-LIVED EVENT WITH ONLY MARGINAL WIND SPEEDS. THE
STRONGEST WIND SHOULD OCCUR AROUND 15Z WITH DECREASING WIND BY 18Z.
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SUPPORT THIS TIMING AS WELL. MAX WIND GUSTS COULD
REACH 35KTS OR 40 MPH EARLY THIS MORNING.

MAX TEMPERATURES TODAY SHOULD RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S TO THE LOWER
60S. MAX TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY WILL BE COOLER WITH READINGS IN
THE LOWER 50S. TEMPERATURES AROUND 70 ARE FORECAST FOR FRIDAY.  MIN
TEMPERATURES WILL COOL TO THE LOWER 30S TONIGHT AND THURSDAY NIGHT.
WARMER MIN TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 40S ARE FORECAST FOR FRIDAY
NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 220 AM MDT WED APR 16 2014

THE SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY PERIOD WILL START OUT WITH SOME GOOD
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION OVER THE WEEKEND.  AN UPPER LEVEL LONG
TROUGH WILL DRIFT EAST TOWARD THE AREA SATURDAY.  AT THE SURFACE A
DRY LINE WILL BE IN PLACE NEAR THE CO/KS LINE AHEAD OF A SURFACE
LOW.  DURING THE AFTERNOON A 700MB SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL APPROACH
THE DRY LINE...CAUSING STORMS TO DEVELOP.  THE STORM COVERAGE SHOULD
INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING AS INSTABILITY
EAST OF THE DRY LINE INCREASES AND LIFT STRENGTHENS AS THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH MOVES THROUGH.  THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAINFALL WILL BE
OVER THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE AREA AHEAD OF THE 700MB TROUGH.  THE
STORM ACTIVITY WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA SUNDAY AHEAD OF THE 500MB
TROUGH AXIS THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH DURING THE AFTERNOON.  WOULD LIKE
TO HAVE GONE HIGHER WITH THE RAINFALL CHANCES FOR SATURDAY
EVENING...BUT WILL HOLD OFF FOR NOW SINCE THIS IS STILL THREE DAYS
AWAY AND THE PLACEMENT OF THE 700MB TROUGH MAY CHANGE BEFORE
SATURDAY ARRIVES.

MONDAY THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE AREA BEHIND THE EXITING
LONG WAVE TROUGH.  HOWEVER MODELS ARE SHOWING AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT
WAVE TROUGH MOVING OVER TOP OF THE RIDGE.  AS THE TROUGH MOVES OVER
THE DRY LINE IN EASTERN COLORADO...SOME ISOLATED STORMS MAY DEVELOP
OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE TROUGH
MOVES THROUGH.  BY THE EVENING THE TROUGH WILL FILL CAUSING STORMS
THAT DEVELOP TO END.  THE RIDGE WILL ALLOW UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES
TO DEVELOP OVER THE AREA.

TUESDAY THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN OVER THE
AREA.  THE UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES WILL WARM EVEN FURTHER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1127 AM MDT WED APR 16 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. THE MAIN ISSUE
FOR TAFS WILL BE THE STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS...ASSOCIATED WITH A
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AND A STRONG LOW TO MID LEVEL JET...TO BEGIN
THE TAF PERIOD. BELIEVE THAT WINDS HAVE ALREADY REACHED THEIR PEAK
GUSTS SINCE UPSTREAM SITES SHOW WINDS ALREADY REDUCED TO 35 KTS AT
K2V5 AND THE LOW-MID LEVEL JET HAS BEGUN TO MOVE EAST SOUTHEAST.

THEREFORE...FOR KGLD HAVE WINDS SUSTAINED AROUND 30 KTS WITH GUSTS
UP TO 39 KTS FOR THE FIRST FEW HOURS. BY 21Z...GUSTS WILL REDUCE
TO AROUND 30 KTS AND BY 23Z...GUSTS WILL REDUCE TO 23 KTS. AROUND
SUNSET NORTHWEST WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST AT AROUND 10
KTS WITH GUSTS DIMINISHING AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE
AREA. OVERNIGHT...WINDS AT KGLD WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT TO THE
SOUTH AND WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE.

FOR KMCK...NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE SUSTAINED AROUND 29 KTS GUSTING
UP TO 35 KTS TO BEGIN THE TAF PERIOD. BY 21Z...GUSTS WILL REDUCE
TO AROUND 28 KTS AND BY 0Z...GUSTS WILL REDUCE TO 22 KTS.
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST AT AROUND 10 KTS WITH
GUSTS DIMINISHING AROUND SUNSET. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT TO
THE SOUTH AND WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE AREA.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM MDT /4 PM CDT/ THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     KSZ001-002-013>015-027>029-041-042.

CO...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM MDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR COZ090>092.

NE...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM MDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR NEZ079.

&&

$$

UPDATE...DLF
SHORT TERM...FS
LONG TERM...JTL
AVIATION...ALW






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