Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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000
FXUS63 KGLD 221716
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
1116 AM MDT WED JUN 22 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday night)
Issued at 212 AM MDT Wed Jun 22 2016

Dry and not as hot today with a possibility of isolated to
scattered thunderstorms late each afternoon and overnight hours
through the end of the work week.

The broad high pressure area remains aloft over the southern U.S.
with westerly flow across the northern states expected to bring a
series of weak disturbances east of the Rockies and across the
plains states late each day. These disturbance appear to be
artifacts of the convection that forms on the higher terrain each
afternoon that subsequently moves east over the plains before
dissipating.

A cold front moves across the forecast area today, keeping high
temperatures nearly 15 degrees cooler than yesterday in some
locations across far eastern Colorado. Temperatures across the
western portions of the forecast area will be near normal for this
time of year while the eastern sections, while not as hot as
yesterday, will remain a few degrees above average.

With the cold front expected to be south of the forecast area and
storms expected to move off the Rockies and across the plains
later today, should see isolated thunderstorms move across the
southern extent of the forecast area this evening. Storms should
continue to transition across the southern sections overnight
with a few storms possibly remaining across the southeast
sections early Thursday morning.

The front that moved through the forecast area on Wednesday will
move back north into the the area on Thursday, providing a focus
for thunderstorms development during the afternoon and evening
hours with storms moving off to the east by early Friday morning.
There is a marginal risk of severe storms with isolated severe
hail and wind expected.

Another round of isolated to scattered thunderstorms is expected
late Friday and Friday night as another trough/front moves into
the area Friday night.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Tuesday)
Issued at 212 AM MDT Wed Jun 22 2016

Chances for thunderstorms persist through the majority of
the extended period. On Saturday, an upper low deepens as it travels
east over the northern Plains from Montana towards the Dakotas. The
cold front trailing this system looks to move through the region
late Saturday (slower than previous guidance). Thunderstorms are
forecast for the afternoon into Saturday night. At this time, better
potential for severe weather appears to be northeast of the area
where healthier instability and shear are located. Will continue to
monitor in upcoming days.

High pressure pushes into the High Plains behind the front as it
moves south, bringing drier conditions to the region on Sunday. The
upper low continues eastward from the Northern Plains and ridging
builds over the western CONUS. As the upper trough departs and
ridging builds to the west, northwest flow develops aloft early next
week. Passing disturbances generate thunderstorm chances across the
forecast area Monday and Tuesday, with slightly higher chances on
Tuesday when better moisture returns to the region.

The warmest temperatures during the extended appear to be on
Saturday with highs in the upper 80s to mid 90s. Slightly "cooler"
temperatures in the upper 80s to low 90s are anticipated Sunday
through Tuesday. Lows will be in the mid 50s to upper 60s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
Issued at 1115 AM MDT Wed Jun 22 2016

VFR expected at both KGLD and KMCK through the TAF period. Surface
winds will continue to be gusty through this afternoon in the wake
of and earlier cold frontal passage. Winds will subside by sunset
at both locations.

&&

.GLD Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LOCKHART
LONG TERM...JBH
AVIATION...024



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