Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 170911

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
311 AM MDT Mon Oct 17 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday night)
Issued at 307 AM MDT Mon Oct 17 2016

Main forecast issue is the heat/fire weather concerns today with the
minor problem of light precipitation in the last half of the period.
Satellite continuing to show a progressive/fast moving westerly flow
from the Pacific into the Conus. Analysis shows a front near/over
the northern portion of the area with a deep dry layer over the

At jet level...models have a good handle on a very strong, 150 knot
plus, upper jet moving in from the western portion of the country.
At mid levels...models started out well with the Canadian just a
little better than the rest.

Today/tonight...At this time it does not look like we will any fog
in the eastern portion of the area. Much drier is in that area and
the high resolution guidance/probabilities keep the fog to the east
of my area.

Through the day area will be affected by the subsident side of very
strong mid/upper level jet. Models differ in timing of front and the
amount of mixing. The Gfs is slower/warmer and mixes the air mass to
a greater depth than the faster/cooler Nam. At this time am siding
toward the warmer solution although I am not going as warm as the
Gfs/Mav. For on how this relates to the current red flag warning
please refer to the fire weather section below.

If models decouple more than indicate, temperatures will be cooler
tonight than presently indicated.

Tuesday/Tuesday night...Much cooler air mass and what the forecast
blend gives me is reasonable. Right rear quadrant of the upper jet
moves across during the night. Models still bring a shortwave trough
through during the night but are weaker with it than yesterday.
Yesterday most if not all of the moisture was at mid levels. Today
the moisture is higher up than yesterday plus the theta-e lapse
rates are not very good. No model produces any qpf. The forecast
blend now has the night period dry, and based on the above I
definitely agree with that and will keep it dry.

Wednesday/Wednesday night...Right rear quadrant of upper jet moves
little during the day and will remain near or over the southeast
half of the area. Forecast soundings show the air mass saturating
down much lower than during the night. The most moisture, best
forcing, and the lowest lapse rates reside over the north. The
shortwave trough is through the area by 18z.

The blend has slight chance pops in the north through the morning
and that looks reasonable. Overnight/early morning temperatures look
to stay warm enough that the phase should remain liquid. Just to
note. The Nam has the most moisture, and if it ended up being
correct there would be a better chance of precipitation than
currently in there. However, it does appear overdone on the moisture
due to the progressive nature of the system.

Again very cool high temperatures given to me by the forecaster
blend and they seem reasonable.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Sunday)
Issued at 143 AM MDT Mon Oct 17 2016

Not much to say for this period, with PoPs near zero and clear skies
prevailing throughout the extended. Surface high pressure builds
over the region from the western CONUS behind the system impacting
the region earlier in the week, keeping temperatures cool on
Thursday. The large area of high pressure continues south towards
Mexico, blocking return moisture. Meanwhile, an upper trough pushes
east of the Plains as upper level ridging builds to the west. This
brings a warming trend to the area Friday and Saturday as the ridge
progresses east. However, a cold front looks to move through on
Sunday, slightly cooling temperatures off once again. Do not expect
any precipitation with the frontal passage due to limited moisture.

Temperatures start out in the 60s on Thursday before gradually
warming into the mid 70s to low 80s by Saturday. A decrease into the
low to mid 70s is currently anticipated for Sunday. Lows follow a
similar trend, warming from the 30s Thursday night to the upper 30s
to mid 40s for Saturday night.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
Issued at 1123 PM MDT Sun Oct 16 2016

VFR conditions will prevail with mostly clear skies at GLD and
MCK through the TAF period. Light and variable winds overnight
will strengthen out of the west between 14-16Z and turn northwest
and become gusty between 17-19Z in the wake of a cold front
currently making its way across the central high plains region.


Issued at 307 AM MDT Mon Oct 17 2016

For today...Relative humidities will range from near 15 percent,
mostly in northern and eastern locations, to just below 10 percent
in the southwest portion. It is possible with better mixing than I
anticipate, those values could be lower. The Gfs may be mixing a
little too much. There looks to be very good lapse rates through
700mb so at the very least expect the mixing to the there. Looking
at the model 700 mb winds and bufkit mixing it would seem
reasonable to be able to mix down 30 to 40 knots. So am thinking
that winds will be 15 to 25 mph with gusts to 40 to 45 mph. If
the mixing from the Gfs is realized, those speeds could be low. As
a result, the current Red Flag Warning is in good shape.


KS...Red Flag Warning from 11 AM MDT /noon CDT/ this morning to 7 PM
     MDT /8 PM CDT/ this evening for KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-

CO...Red Flag Warning from 11 AM this morning to 7 PM MDT this
     evening for COZ252>254.

NE...Red Flag Warning from 11 AM MDT /noon CDT/ this morning to 7 PM
     MDT /8 PM CDT/ this evening for NEZ079>081.



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