Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 161736

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
1136 AM MDT Sat Sep 16 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Monday night)
Issued at 400 AM MDT Sat Sep 16 2017

The upper low pressure area over the northern Great Basin lifts
into southern Canada by Sunday with southwest flow aloft over the
forecast area transitioning to a more zonal flow by late Sunday
through Monday ahead of the next low pressure area moving in from
the Pacific Northwest by mid week.

The surface frontal boundary currently moving through the region
continues across the plains states today with a cooler area of
high pressure to remain across the region during the weekend. The
remnants of the surface front moves back northward across the
region as a warm front late Sunday into Monday with a weak short
wave trough aloft moving east of the Rockies and across the
central high plains. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are
expected to develop along and behind the frontal boundary to be
enhanced by the more moist return flow around the exiting high
pressure area. A few marginally severe storms will be possible as
a result before the storms lift out of the region on Monday.

High temperatures on Monday are expected to be back in the 80s
following high temperatures mainly in the 70s during the weekend.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Saturday)
Issued at 233 AM MDT Sat Sep 16 2017

The start of the extended period continues to have southwesterly
flow influencing the region. Expect a quiet Tuesday with afternoon
high temperatures reaching the middle 80s to the lower 90s.

For the rest of the period, the models are showing a deepening upper
level low over southwestern Canada that looks to rotate 2 strong
longwave troughs through the region, one on Wednesday and the other
on Friday. Surface cold fronts associated with these troughs should
reduce the temperatures to normal levels and bring the possibility
of precipitation and gusty winds, mainly on Friday and Saturday.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 1129 AM MDT Sat Sep 16 2017

For KMCK and KGLD... VFR conditions should prevail through the
period. Low stratus currently over Yuma County (CO) and Dundy
County (NE) is trying to push south towards KGLD. Current
satellite trends show it thinning as it gets near the terminal.
Will be monitored through the afternoon. Gusty winds at both
terminals through the afternoon until near sunset as winds relax.
There will be scattered showers across the area after midnight and
into the morning, but do not feel they will affect the terminals.
May see some lowered ceilings after sunrise tomorrow.




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