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000
FXUS63 KGLD 152103
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
303 PM MDT WED MAY 15 2013

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 301 PM MDT WED MAY 15 2013

AS THE LARGE SCALE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
CONUS MOVES OVER THE PLAINS A SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES TO BRING YET ANOTHER CHANCE OF PRECIP TOMORROW AS WELL AS
AID IN FORCING FOR PRECIP TODAY.

TODAY...WHILE THE WARMEST TEMPS OF THIS WEEK ARE BEHIND US...THE
AIRMASS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS REMAINS WELL ABOVE NORMAL
WITH 850MB TEMPS IN THE LOWER TO MID 20S CELSIUS. WHILE CLOUD COVER
ACROSS THE CWA IS FAIRLY WIDESPREAD...BELIEVE WE WILL BE ABLE TO
REACH A FEW DEGREES HIGHER THAN PREVIOUS FCST. CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT WITH SUFFICIENT FORCING FROM A
SURFACE BOUNDARY MOVING ACROSS THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO
THIS EVENING. WHILE EFFECTIVE SHEAR WILL NOT BE ENOUGH TO SUSTAIN
ANY STORMS FOR VERY LONG...INVERTED-V MODEL SOUNDINGS AND DCAPE
VALUES APPROACHING 1000 J/KG COULD LEAD TO SOME GUSTY STORMS.

TONIGHT...SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL TAPER OFF AFTER SUNSET AND WINDS
WILL BECOME LIGHTER. SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA WITH LOWS
IN THE MID 50S.

THURSDAY...A BETTER CHANCE FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION WITH FORCING
FROM A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. WHILE THE
BEST PVA LOOKS TO BE FARTHER NORTH...BELIEVE THERE WILL ENOUGH TO
FIRE STORMS ALONG A DRYLINE ALONG THE KANSAS-COLORADO BORDER. DEEP
LAYER SHEAR VALUES WILL BE HIGH ENOUGH TO SUPPORT ORGANIZED
MULTICELL CONVECTION...WHICH ALONG WITH PLENTY OF CAPE /1000 TO 1500
J/KG PER MOST GUIDANCE/ COULD BRING A THREAT OF BOTH STRONG WIND AND
SMALL HAIL. AM NOT EXPECTING WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER...BUT CANNOT
RULE OUT A FEW STORMS MEETING SEVERE CRITERIA.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 301 PM MDT WED MAY 15 2013

MAIN CONCERN FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE THE CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. A
SECONDARY THREAT OF FIRE WEATHER COMES IN BEHIND THE DRYLINE FRIDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOST LIKELY CONTINUE INTO THE LATE
EVENING HOURS ON THURSDAY BEFORE MOVING OUT TO THE EAST AND/OR DYING
OFF BY MIDNIGHT. THE DRYLINE WILL SLOWLY RECEDE TO THE WEST
OVERNIGHT AND SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO PUMP MOISTURE INTO
THE FORECAST AREA. WINDS WILL WEAKEN BEFORE SUNRISE AND MAY ALLOW
FOR SOME PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. HAVE NOT
MENTIONED FOG IN THE FORECAST FOR NOW BECAUSE CURRENT THINKING IS
THAT TEMPERATURES MAY NOT FALL AS FAST AS NEEDED FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT
SO STRATUS SEEMED MORE LIKELY THAN FOG.

ON FRIDAY...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE AS IT PUSHES TO THE EAST. THE
NAM SHOWS A SUBSTANTIAL CAP THAT WOULD PREVENT THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER...THE NAM IS THE OUTLIER AS THE GFS...CANADIAN
AND EUROPEAN MODELS SHOW AND UNCAPPED ATMOSPHERE DURING THE
AFTERNOON ON FRIDAY. THERE DOES NOT SEEM TO BE A DISCERNIBLE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH FOR FRIDAY AT THIS TIME...UNLIKE THURSDAY. THE
DYNAMICS DO NOT LOOK AS IMPRESSIVE ON FRIDAY BUT WITH 1500 TO 2000
J/KG OF CAPE...850-500 MB LAPSE RATES OF 8 C/KM...LIFTED INDICES OF
-5 TO -8 AND DEWPOINTS NEARING 60 DEGREES...IT IS HARD TO NOT SEE AT
LEAST A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ALONG THE DRYLINE.
THEREFORE...HAVE ADDED THE MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE
FORECAST. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S ON
FRIDAY. FIRE WEATHER COULD BECOME A CONCERN BEHIND THE DRYLINE IN
EAST COLORADO ON FRIDAY BUT IT SEEMS AS THOUGH WINDS WILL NOT REACH
CRITICAL LEVELS.

ON SATURDAY...A LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING OVER THE ROCKIES
WILL BEGIN TO MOVE ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS. A MUCH BETTER CHANCE OF
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED. A BETTER CHANCE FOR
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS ALSO EXPECTED WITH THE TROUGH
BECOMING NEGATIVELY TILTED...CAPE VALUES OF 2000 TO 3000
J/KG...LIFTED INDICES OF -7 TO -9...850-500 MB LAPSE RATES OF 8
C/KM...0-6 KM BULK SHEAR OF 40 TO 50 KTS AND 0-3 KM HELICITIES OF
200-300 M2/S2. THIS LEADS ONE TO BELIEVE THAT SEVERE WEATHER COULD
BE IMMINENT ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WILL CONTINUE TO
WATCH THE EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEKEND
AND INTO MONDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SLOWLY MOVES THROUGH. THE
MAJORITY OF THE STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE TO THE EAST
OF THE REGION AS THE DRYLINE AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ADVANCE THAT
WAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH ON SATURDAY NIGHT AND INTO
SUNDAY...BRINGING COOLER TEMPERATURES AND NORTHWEST WINDS TO THE
REGION. FIRE WEATHER COULD BECOME A CONCERN BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
AS DRY AIR MOVES IN FROM THE WEST BEHIND THE DRYLINE AND WINDS COULD
BECOME GUSTY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1129 AM MDT WED MAY 15 2013

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AT GLD AND MCK.
WINDS ARE A BIT BREEZIER THAN ORIGINALLY EXPECTED...WITH GUSTS
APPROACHING 30KTS AT MCK. WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE NORTHEAST
THROUGH THE REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT...BECOMING LIGHT AT 5 TO 10
KTS OVERNIGHT. A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
TONIGHT...WITH A CHANCE FOR STRONG WIND GUSTS AT EITHER SITE FROM
STORMS. HOWEVER...GIVEN EXPECTED ISOLATED NATURE OF STORMS HAVE
ONLY INCLUDED VICINITY TERMINOLOGY IN TAF. CEILINGS WILL REMAIN
VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JJM
LONG TERM...RRH
AVIATION...JJM