Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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000
FXUS63 KGLD 291716
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1116 AM MDT WED JUL 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1022 AM MDT WED JUL 29 2015

ADJUSTED POPS/WX THROUGH TONIGHT TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT TRENDS.
VERY LIGHT SHOWERS/SPRINKLES CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS CWA AS WEAK
LIFT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION AROUND NW EXTENT OF UPPER RIDGE/SW
EXTEND OF UPPER LOW. LAPSE RATES AROUND 7 C/KM MAY CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS AS WEAK ENERGY CONTINUES TO ROTATE TO
THE NORTHEAST...MAYBE A RUMBLE OF THUNDER...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW
CONSIDERING LACK OF ANY CAPE THROUGH TONIGHT ACROSS OUR CWA. I
DECIDED TO REMOVE THUNDER MENTION DURING THIS UPDATE. VERY DRY
LAYER BELOW 700MB WILL LIMIT MEASURABLE POTENTIAL...SO I LIMITED
SLIGHT CHANCE SHOWERS TO SW WITH SPRINKLES ELSEWHERE THROUGH THIS
EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 230 AM MDT
WED JUL 29 2015

CONVECTION IN SOUTHWEST TO CENTRAL KANSAS ALONG AND JUST NORTH OF
THE OLD STALLED OUT FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOWS LITTLE MOVEMENT ON
LATEST RADAR RETURNS. NONETHELESS...OUTFLOW BOUNDARY PROPAGATING
NORTH MAY INITIATE NEW CONVECTION AND THE SYNOPTIC SCALE IS NOT
UNFAVORABLE WITH QVECTOR CONVERGENCE INDICATED THROUGH MID
MORNING...SO WILL CARRY SOME LOW POPS IN SOUTHERN AREAS. VERY WEAK
LIFT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT AS UPPER FLOW GRADUALLY
TRANSITIONS TO NORTHWEST WITH EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGHS
INTERACTING WITH MEAGER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MAINLY IN SOUTHERN
AREAS FOR SLIGHT CHANCE POPS. MOISTURE GETS A LITTLE BETTER ON
THURSDAY WITH SOUTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS AND ANOTHER WEAK WAVE
IN THE UPPER FLOW RESULTING IN ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MAINLY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS OK
AT AROUND 40KTS BUT INSTABILITY IS MARGINAL AND WITH WEAK FORCING
SEVERE THREAT WILL BE LIMITED. PATTERN DOESNT CHANGE MUCH ON
FRIDAY BUT WITH SUBTLE HEIGHT RISES FORECAST HAVING A DIFFICULT
TIME IDENTIFYING ANY SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING. AS A RESULT WILL
LEAVE FRIDAY DRY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL TODAY THEN
GRADUALLY WARM TO NEAR NORMAL BY FRIDAY.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 230 AM MDT WED JUL 29 2015

DRIER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK DUE
TO AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE RETROGRADING AND SETTLING OVER THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION FOR THE DURATION OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. THIS IN
ADDITION TO AN UPPER LOW SPINNING OVER HUDSON BAY AND A TROUGH OVER
THE EASTERN CONUS WILL BRING NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT TO THE HIGH
PLAINS. WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION IS NOT EXPECTED AS THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING DOMINATES THE AREA. DID LEAVE SOME LOWER SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES IN THE FORECAST DUE TO SOUTHERLY WINDS NEAR THE
SURFACE INCREASING MOISTURE IN THE AREA AS WEAK SHORTWAVES PASS
ALONG THE RIDGE...ALTHOUGH THE TIMING OF THESE WAVES IS DIFFICULT TO
PINPOINT THIS FAR OUT.

A WARMING TREND LOOKS TO CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 80S TO MID 90S AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING PERSISTS. LOWS IN
THE 60S ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1116 AM MDT WED JUL 29 2015

VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL AT BOTH KGLD AND KMCK TERMINALS.
THERE IS A POSSIBILITY FOR 1500 KFT CIGS AT KGLD AROUND
12Z...HOWEVER MOST GUIDANCE IS TRENDING TOWARDS VFR...AND KGLD MAY
BE JUST TO THE NE OF BEST BL MOISTURE AXIS. LIGHT SHOWERS OR
VIRGA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE WITHIN THE VICINITY OF BOTH KGLD AND
KMCK THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS NEAR THESE SHOWERS AROUND 20KT
POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE WINDS WILL BE LESS THAN 10KT THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE LINGERS OVER THE REGION.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DR
SHORT TERM...024
LONG TERM...JBH
AVIATION...DR



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