Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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000
FXUS63 KGLD 222048
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
248 PM MDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 247 PM MDT FRI MAY 22 2015

LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RAP UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS CLOSED LOW OVER
THE SW US...WITH A NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH CENTERED OVER THE
NEBRASKA PANHANDLE/NORTHEAST COLORADO. SATELLITE SHOWS CLEARING
BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE SW PART OF THE CWA...WITH STRATUS/SHOWERS
TRANSITIONING NORTHWARDS. THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALREADY BEGINNING TO
FIRE ALONG PALMER DIVING ALONG NORTHERN EXTENT OF SURFACE LOW IN
EASTERN COLORADO.

REGARDING SEVERE THREAT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH
CLEARING TAKING PLACE IN THE SW RAP AND OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS INDICATED
500-1500 J/KG OF SB CAPE ALREADY DEVELOPING...AND GUIDANCE WOULD
FAVOR THIS DEVELOPING INTO THE SW PART OF THE CWA (ASSOCIATED WITH
CLEARING. GOOD VEERING PROFILES ARE IN PLACE ALONG AND JUST NORTH OF
THE SURFACE LOW WHERE RAP IS HINTING AT HELICITY VALUES APPROACHING
250 M2/S2 BY 00Z. ORGANIZED SUPERCELL/TORNADO THREAT SEEMS TO BE
TIED TO THIS SURFACE LOW AND WOULD FAVOR THE SOUTHWEST PART OF OUR
CWA. DEEP SPEED SHEER CONTINUES OVERNIGHT AND GUIDANCE INDICATES
AROUND 1000 J/KG OF MU CAPE (POSSIBLY HIGHER IF NAM IS TO BE
TRUSTED). STRONG ISENTROPIC SIGNAL CONTINUES THROUGH THE NIGHTTIME
PERIOD...AND SEVERAL LOBES OF VORTICITY AND OMEGA ROTATE THROUGH
THE REGION. THIS SHOULD COMBINE TO CREATE
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS...POSSIBLY A SEVERE HAIL THREAT IF WE SEE ANY
THUNDERSTORMS. NOT AS SURE ABOUT WIND THREAT CONSIDERING THE
PROFILES AND STABLE LOWER LEVELS.

FOG/STRATUS/DRIZZLE WILL BE POSSIBLE ALL NIGHT WITH GOOD BL MOISTURE
FLUX THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING...TRANSITIONING EASTWARD. WITH BETTER
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM/DRIZZLE COVERAGE DENSE FOG MAY NOT BE AS MUCH OF
A CONCERN DUE TO THE INCREASE IN MIXING. WILL NEED TO MONITOR AS
LESS MIXING WOULD RESULT IN DENSE FOG DUE TO THE LONG FETCH
UPSLOPE/MAGNITUDE OF MOISTURE ADVECTION.

GUIDANCES SHOWS TWO DISTINCT SHORTWAVE TROUGHS SATURDAY
MORNING...ONE IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND ANOTHER DEVELOPING INTO
NORTHERN COLORADO BY LATE AFTERNOON AS THE H3 JET BEGINS TO SHIFT
EASTWARD. THERE SEEMS TO BE A LULL IN ACTIVITY BETWEEN THESE
FEATURES LIKELY DUE TO SOME WEAK SUBSIDENCE...AND NAM IS REALLY
HITTING THIS DRY PERIOD HARDER COMPARED TO GFS/ECMWF. DECIDED OT
TIMING OUT THE LULL TO FAVOR LOWER POPS SAT MORNING...BEFORE
COVERAGE REDEVELOPS IN THE AFTERNOON. BETTER PRECIP SIGNAL IS AGAIN
IN EASTERN COLORADO BY MID AFTERNOON. CAPE PROFILES ARE MUCH MORE
ROBUST ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA...AS WELL AS GOOD SHEER. AS A
RESULT WE WILL PROBABLY SEE A BETTER SEVERE THREAT SATURDAY
AFTERNOON THAN TODAY.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 247 PM MDT FRI MAY 22 2015

THE SLOW-MOVING UPPER LOW OVER UT/CO AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD
IS FORECAST TO LIFT NORTHEAST INTO THE DAKOTAS BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK...BUT NOT BEFORE SWINGING SEVERAL MORE SHORT WAVE TROUGHS
AROUND ITS PERIPHERY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THE PATTERN WILL
BE SOMEWHAT LESS ACTIVE FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WITH
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL A BIT MORE OF THE HIT-AND-MISS VARIETY
BEFORE ANOTHER TROUGH DEVELOPS IN THE WEST TOWARD THE END OF THE
WEEK. OVERALL...THE LONG RANGE PERIOD WILL BE ONE OF DECREASING
PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING BACK TO SEASONAL
NORMS IN THE 70S/LOW 80S FOR HIGHS AND 50S FOR LOWS.

TO START THE EXTENDED PERIOD...THERE IS DECENT POTENTIAL FOR
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS SATURDAY AFTERNOON-EVENING AS THE UPPER
LOW MOVES INTO WESTERN COLORADO AND A SURFACE DRYLINE SETS UP OVER
EC/SE COLORADO. A 100 KT 250 MB JET STREAK WILL BE RUNNING UP THE
EAST SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW ALONG THE C0-KS BORDER DURING PEAK
HEATING...AND WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ALREADY IN PLACE...A ROUND
OF SEVERE STORMS SEEMS PROBABLE IN EASTERN COLORADO AND WESTERN
KANSAS. STORMS WILL MOVE QUICKLY NORTH INTO NEBRASKA DURING THE
EVENING.

SUNDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT...THE TAIL END OF THE UPPER LOW/TROUGH
WILL FINALLY SWING THROUGH THE AREA SO CONTINUED CHANCE POPS AS A
RESULT. WEAK SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THIS FEATURE ON MONDAY WILL PROVIDE
A LITTLE RELIEF FROM THE ONSLAUGHT OF RECENT PRECIPITATION.

MID WEEK WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY A QUASI ZONAL FLOW WITH A FEW
WEAK EMBEDDED TROUGH WHICH WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS
FOR THUNDERSTORMS BUT OTHERWISE ACCOMPANIED BY TEMPERATURES MORE
TYPICAL OF LATE MAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1130 AM MDT FRI MAY 22 2015

VERY MOIST AIR MASS AND LARGE SCALE SYSTEM TO THE WEST WILL RESULT
IN SHOWERS...THUNDERSTORMS...FOG...AND LOW STRATUS POTENTIAL AT
BOTH TAF SITES. CONFIDENCE HAS DECREASED IN LIFR FOG DUE TO
POTENTIAL FOR PATTERN TO FAVOR STRATUS/PRECIP AND THIS COULD KEEP
VIS IN THE 1-3SM RANGE (FAVORED BY CURRENT STATISTICAL GUIDANCE).
I COULD SEE TEMPORARY DROPS BELOW ONE MILE IN THE 08-13Z
TIMEFRAME...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS JUST TOO LOW TO PREVAIL. IN IN
CASE PERIODS OF IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE...WITH SLIGHT
IMPROVEMENTS TO MVFR THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN SATURDAY MORNING.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...DLF
AVIATION...DR



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