Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

FXUS63 KGLD 281819

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
1219 PM MDT THU JUL 28 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Saturday night)
Issued at 226 AM MDT Thu Jul 28 2016

Another round of severe weather appears likely this afternoon as
the next shortwave trough topping the ridge slides down the
central High Plains in the northwest flow aloft. The combination
of strong instabilty of up to 3500 j/kg of CAPE and deep layer
shear of up to 50kts will set the stage for possible supercells in
the initiation phase with attendant threats of large hail,
damaging winds and a few tornadoes...then transitioning to a wind
and hail threat this evening as storms slide southeast and merge
into a possible MCS. A few isolated thunderstorms may linger into
the overnight but best chances will be early.

Instability will be lacking on Friday with a relatively cool
easterly upslope regime in the low levels. Not seeing much forcing
for precipitation on the synoptic scale, but cannot rule out a few
non-severe storms developing in the afternoon on the higher
terrain of eastern Colorado then moving into western parts of the
area in the evening.

The upper ridge will nudge eastward across the Rockies on Saturday
with rising heights forecast over the central plains. There are
some weak qpf signals in a few models apparently linked to a weak
disturbance rotating around the core of the ridge, so won`t go
completely dry but chances appear slim for precipitation. It will
be very unstable and deep layer shear will be around 40kts so if
something were to develop a severe storm cannot be ruled out.

Temperatures will be near to slightly above normal today, below
normal on Friday then near normal on Saturday.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Wednesday)
Issued at 226 AM MDT Thu Jul 28 2016

Unsettled weather is anticipated during the extended, with chances
for thunderstorms nearly every period. Warmer temperatures return
to the region early next week.

At the start of the period, flow aloft is northwesterly with an area
of high pressure over the Desert Southwest and a trough over the
eastern half of the CONUS. On Sunday, the high begins to move east
and upper level ridging progresses towards the Plains. The ridging
continues to build into the region through midweek as a couple
closed lows move across Canada. With monsoonal moisture filtering
north towards the High Plains and multiple shortwaves passing
through the flow Sunday through Wednesday, there are chances for
thunderstorms each afternoon/evening. However, with differing
guidance, kept only slight chances for precipitation at this time
until timing and location of features are better resolved.

Hot temperatures return next week with highs in the mid to upper 90s
on Sunday and Monday and in the low to mid 90s on Tuesday and
Wednesday. Low temperatures look to remain in the 60s/low 70s.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
Issued at 1204 PM MDT Thu Jul 28 2016

Between 18z-20z expect thunderstorms to move into the area around
MCK and continue for several hours. Thunderstorms will move into
the GLD around 21Z. As storms become more numerous and gain
intensity this afternoon, large hail and damaging winds are
anticipated mainly between 23-01z before the storms begin to move
out of the area and dissipate after 06Z. VFR conditions are
initially expected, but could degrade to IFR as individual storms
move across the TAF sites. Conditions will vary between VFR and
MVFR as low clouds and areas of fog may develop in the wake of the
storms after 06Z. A transition to VFR will occur between 16Z-18Z.


.GLD Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


AVIATION...LOCKHART is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.