Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 220844

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
144 AM MST Thu Feb 22 2018

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 237 PM MST Wed Feb 21 2018

Complicated and potentially messy period of weather beginning this
evening. Currently large area of low level moisture moving in
from the south. This moves through the area tonight and slowly north
of the area on Thursday. Periodic pockets of mid and upper level
moisture moves across during this time. 12z soundings from DDC and
AMA show that saturated air mass with the potential for frozen or
freezing depending on how cold the near surface is. Tendency this
season so far has been to have a saturated low level air mass with
the ice appearing in the low levels.

Forecast soundings from the Nam and Gfs show the potential that
the upstream soundings have captured. Ran the builder and it gave
me more snow early on then trended toward the freezing
precipitation later in the night and overnight hours. This looks
reasonable. Best moisture and favorable theta-e combination appear
in the far eastern portion of the area, namely Norton and Graham
counties. A glaze, less than .05 of ice accumulation with up to an
inch of snow will occur in those counties which is the highest
anywhere in my forecast area. As a result of the above
collaboration have issued a Winter Weather Advisory for those
counties from mid evening tonight into mid afternoon on Thursday.

There is lower potential for freezing drizzle further west and did
not feel as confident about putting the advisory further east.
Evening and overnight shift will have to monitor this in case the
potential for freezing precipitation further west. Something also
the next couple shifts will have to watch will be the potential
for freezing fog. Did not feel totally confident about that, but
that is something that may develop in the overnight hours and
continue into tomorrow morning. This potentially could make the
situation even messier. No matter how this develops, conditions
should improve in the afternoon.

Kept close to the guidance for tonight and tomorrow due to the
cloud cover and the variable conditions.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Wednesday)
Issued at 144 AM MST Thu Feb 22 2018

Dry weather returns to the forecast on Sunday as a weak wave moves
south of the region. Dry and warmer conditions are anticipated early
next week with southwest flow developing aloft as an upper trough
deepens over the west coast. These conditions could lead to fire
weather concerns for the southern portion of the region. Guidance
shows the trough closing off on Tuesday as it drops into southern
California and ejecting towards the High Plains on Wednesday. Will
wait to see how guidance refines discrepancies in the timing and
placement of this disturbance. It currently looks as though this
system brings some chances for light precipitation Tuesday night
into Wednesday.

Temperatures climb from the 40s on Sunday to the upper 40s to upper
50s on Tuesday. Highs fall into the upper 30s to upper 40s on
Wednesday. Lows remain in the teens and 20s throughout the period.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night)
Issued at 1014 PM MST Wed Feb 21 2018

Ceilings will continue to gradually lower overnight at both KGLD
and KMCK, but very dry surface layer has slowed the process.
Nonetheless, better forcing will arrive Thursday morning and
expecting a band of light to perhaps moderate snow to develop from
southwest to northeast and impact both terminals with a brief
period of reduced visibilities. The snow will end Thursday
afternoon as the disturbance lifts north, but ceilings will only
slowly rise with the persistent moist southeasterly winds.


KS...Winter Weather Advisory until 3 PM CST this afternoon for KSZ004-



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