Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

000
FXUS63 KGLD 260508
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1108 PM MDT MON AUG 25 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 839 PM MDT MON AUG 25 2014

QUICK UPDATE TO POP/WX/QPF TO REFLECT LATEST RADAR TRENDS AND
SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE. BETTER COVERAGE LOOKS TO BE ACROSS NORTHERN
HALF OF CWA WITH SE PART OF CWA POSSIBLY REMAINING ISO-SCT IN
COVERAGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 144 PM MDT MON AUG 25 2014

UPPER FLOW WILL BE SOUTHWEST TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.  SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL RESIDE OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS. A SURFACE
FRONT WILL BE DRAPED FROM EAST TO WEST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PART OF
KANSAS.

THE MODELS BRING A SHORTWAVE INTO THE FA TONIGHT AND AGAIN TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. THERE IS PLENTY OF LIFT ACROSS THE FA TONIGHT ALONG WITH
MONSOONAL MOISTURE. PLAN TO GO WITH LIKELY TO DEFINITE POPS FOR
TONIGHT. STORMS WILL LINGER OVER THE EASTERN FA TUESDAY MORNING.
THE NEXT SHORTWAVE COMES OUT TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH SIMILAR
MOISTURE AND LIFT. PLAN TO GO WITH A 40 PERCENT CHANCE IN THE
SOUTHWEST AND A 30 PERCENT CHANCE ACROSS THE REST OF THE FA.

MIN TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL COOL TO THE LOWER 60S. MAX
TEMPERATURES TUESDAY ARE EXPECTED IN THE 80S.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1256 PM MDT MON AUG 25 2014

UPPER LOW WILL GRADUALLY SWING OUT OF THE GREAT BASIN AND ACROSS
THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND ADJACENT PLAINS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEK. THE END RESULT WILL BE GOOD CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH FRIDAY. STORMS COULD LINGER INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT IF THE UPPER SYSTEM SLOWS DOWN...WHICH CANNOT BE RULED OUT
SINCE MOST MODEL SOLUTIONS SHOW IT CLOSED AT 500MB. PRECIPITATION
FORECASTS FOR THE WEEK (MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY) RANGE FROM AROUND 1
INCH IN THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE AREA TO AROUND 2.50 INCHES IN
NORTHERN AREAS. SOME LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS WILL BE POSSIBLE.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK DUE
TO CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION. UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THAT
SYSTEM WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND WARMER TEMPERATURES. MODELS BEGIN
TO DIVERGE EARLY NEXT WEEK ON TIMING OF NEXT UPPER TROUGH IN THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES. SO WILL GO WITH PERSISTENCE FOR MONDAY WITH DRY
AND WARM CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1108 PM MDT MON AUG 25 2014

MAIN CONCERN FOR BOTH KGLD AND KMCK THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE
TAF PERIOD WILL BE THUNDERSTORMS JUST NORTH AND WEST OF BOTH
TERMINALS TRANSITIONING EASTWARD. AT THIS TIME NORTHERN EXTENT OF
THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX IS BIGGEST CONCERN...AND WILL LIKELY IMPACT
KMCK THROUGH AT LEAST 10Z...WITH LINGERING ACTIVITY AFTERWARDS
THROUGH MORNING. SOUTHERN EXTENT IS MUCH LESS INTENSE THOUGH THIS
WILL AT LEAST BRING VCTS AND LIGHT SHOWERS TO KGLD THROUGH 08Z
POSSIBLY LATER. AT THIS POINT HAIL SEEMS UNLIKELY AT THE TERMINALS
THOUGH BRIEF GUSTY WINDS CANT BE RULED OUT ALONG WITH MODERATE TO
HEAVY RAIN. ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL DEVELOP TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND TRANSITION FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO THE NORTHEAST WITH
ACTIVITY JUST ENTERING VICINITY OF KMCK LATER.

REGARDING STRATUS/FOG POTENTIAL...STRATUS/FOG STILL EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP ALONG FRONTAL ZONE IN EASTERN COLORADO...WHICH COULD START
TO IMPACT KGLD. TEMPORARY IFR CONDITIONS MAY BE POSSIBLE IN THE
12-15Z PERIOD...THOUGH PREVAILING CONDITIONS SHOULD BE AROUND
1500 KFT AGL AND 5-7 SM. STILL TOO EARLY TO ADD TEMPO GROUP WITH
THIS ISSUANCE...BUT WILL MONITOR. KMCK IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE
IMPACTED BY THIS.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DR
SHORT TERM...FS
LONG TERM...024
AVIATION...DR


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.