Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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000
FXUS63 KGLD 291727
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
1027 AM MST Tue Nov 29 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 815 AM MST Tue Nov 29 2016

Have made an adjustment to sky cover this morning, bringing it
south a little quicker based on latest observations. May adjust
winds later in the next update if expected gusts have not
materialized.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Thursday night)
Issued at 145 AM MST Tue Nov 29 2016

Windy and dry conditions will be noteworthy the next few days as
they may produce elevated fire weather conditions and localized
blowing dust. However, do not expect to issue any dust or fire
weather highlights as conditions will either be below criteria or
limited in extent.

The upper low over the eastern Dakotas today moves slowly into
Wisconsin by late Wednesday and then moves quickly trough the
Great Lakes region on Thursday as a kicker moves into the
northwest U.S. As the upper low moves further east, the associated
surface low also tracks east. The strong pressure gradient on the
back side of the low will bring breezy to windy conditions to the
Central High Plains region today and Wednesday. By Thursday the
surface pressure gradient relaxes with a transition to westerly
flow aloft and light winds at the surface on Thursday and Thursday
night.

The persistent northwest flow will keep cooler and more
seasonable temperatures in place across the forecast area with
highs generally in the 40s and lows in the upper teens and 20s.

Do not expect any precipitation to occur in the short term.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Monday)
Issued at 124 AM MST Tue Nov 29 2016

Amplified flow continues from the Pacific into the western Atlantic.
Two concerns for this time period. First if any precipitation will
make it into the southern portion of our forecast area late in the
weekend and a big weather/temperature change at the beginning of
next week.

Models continue to have difficulties with the path and speed of the
system moving into/developing in the west late this week into the
weekend. Daytime model runs continued the trend of the Gfs and
Canadian being slower, further south, and more cutoff while the
Ecmwf was faster with an open wave. However, the 00z Ecmwf has
joined the Gfs and Canadian camp with a cutoff system that is
further south.

However the Ecmwf remains faster with ejecting this system which may
end up being more right. As shown yesterday this system is still too
far south to affect the area with any precipitation. The new
forecast blend has the chance of precipitation further south, and
that looks good.

Now at the end of this forecast period and just beyond it starts
looking more interesting. The models bring a complex and cold upper
trough into western Canada and the northwest portion of the country.
Model timing at the mid and upper levels is almost completely out of
phase which has significant affects on how fast to bring in a
strong cold front Monday and Monday night. The Gfs is much faster
and the Ecmwf slower. So it is possible that high temperatures on
Monday could be much cooler than what the blend has in there.

However, by late Monday night into Tuesday the models start agreeing
on the low level thermal field. If correct the coldest air of the
season will pour into the region during this time. This cold air
arrival and mid/upper level lift will bring the next chance of
precipitation to the region. Overall made little if any changes to
the forecast blend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 1027 AM MST Tue Nov 29 2016

Vfr conditions are expected to prevail at both KGLD and KMCK
through the TAF period. Cloud cover increases today before
clearing overnight. Gusty northwest winds prevail in the
afternoon, decreasing some this evening. However, winds will not
completely drop off and will stay up around 15 to 20 mph. No
precipitation is anticipated.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JBH/JN
SHORT TERM...LOCKHART
LONG TERM...BULLER
AVIATION...JBH



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