Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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000
FXUS63 KGLD 241004
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
304 AM MST MON NOV 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 251 AM MST MON NOV 24 2014

LATEST WATER VAPOR AND UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATE A LARGE PLUME OF
HIGHER MOISTURE MOVING SOUTH WITH THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER
WYOMING WITHIN THE NORTHWEST UPPER LEVEL FLOW. ANTICIPATE CLOUD
COVER TO INCREASE AS THE TROUGH APPROACHES THE AREA TODAY.

DURING THE AFTERNOON THE TROUGH WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA.  AS IT DOES
SO THE ENVIRONMENT WILL SATURATE AND THETA-E LAPSE RATES WILL NEAR
0C/KM.  CURRENTLY LOOKS LIKE THE STRONGEST LIFT WILL BE WEST OF THE
AREA...BUT THERE WILL BE SOME WEAK LIFT OVER THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OF THE AREA. ADJUSTED PRECIP. CHANCES FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST TO
BETTER FOCUS ON THE SOUTHWEST...BUT OVERALL DID NOT CHANGE THE
PRECIP. COVERAGE TOO MUCH. DID CHANGE THE PRECIP. TYPE TO ALL SNOW
DUE TO WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS BEING BELOW 750 FT. AGL WHICH WILL
SUPPORT ALL SNOW. DUE TO THE WEAK LIFT OVERHEAD...THOUGHT ABOUT
PLACING A MENTION OF FLURRIES WITH THE SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SNOW
SINCE THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE SOMETHING WILL FALL JUST A QUESTION
OF WILL THERE BE ENOUGH TO MELT DOWN TO A HUNDREDTH OR NOT.
HOWEVER WAS AFRAID THAT SOUNDED TOO COMPLICATED SO JUST HAVE A
MENTION OF SNOW FOR NOW. LATER SHIFTS CAN CHANGE THIS IF FLURRIES
APPEAR MORE LIKELY.

MEANWHILE NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE BREEZY TODAY DUE TO 850MB WINDS OF
20-30KTS DURING THE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL PEAK DURING THE LATE
MORNING THEN DECLINE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON.

DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING THE SNOWFALL SHOULD END FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH AS THE ISENTROPIC LIFT MOVES SOUTH OF THE AREA WITH
THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH.


.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 251 AM MST MON NOV 24 2014

TUESDAY A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA.  WEAK
ISENTROPIC LIFT DEVELOPS OVER THE AREA AS THE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH.
DURING THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING LIFT OVER YUMA COUNTY
INTENSIFIES AND SOUNDINGS SATURATE TO WITHIN 4.5K FT. OF THE
GROUND. THEREFORE HAVE PLACED A MENTION OF SNOW IN THE FORECAST
FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING BEFORE THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH
FILLS AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. WITH WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS
BEING BELOW THE GROUND THE PRECIP. WILL BE ALL SNOW. DURING THE
AFTERNOON A SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA CAUSING THE WINDS TO TURN TO THE NORTHWEST BEHIND IT.

TUESDAY NIGHT A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA.  DUE TO
VERY LITTLE LIFT ACCOMPANYING THE FRONT WILL LEAVE THE FORECAST DRY
FOR NOW.

WEDNESDAY DRIER AIR WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA AND THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW
WILL BECOME MORE LAMINAR AS AN 850MB RIDGE DEVELOPS OVER THE AREA.
A SURFACE HIGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA PUSHING THE COOLER AIR MASS
EAST OF THE AREA.



NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AND THEN BECOMES
ZONAL FRIDAY.  ZONAL FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY.  THE
FORECAST WILL BE DRY THROUGH SUNDAY DUE TO THE LACK OF SIGNIFICANT
FORCING AND MOISTURE. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO THE LOWER 60S BY
FRIDAY AND THEN COOL TO THE MID AND UPPER 40S SUNDAY BEHIND A COLD
FRONT. MIN TEMPERATURES WILL COOL TO THE UPPER 20S/AROUND 30
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHTS COOLING TO THE LOWER 20S SATURDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1034 PM MST SUN NOV 23 2014

VFR CONDITIONS FOR BOTH SITES FOR ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD. MAINLY
SCT-BKN080-150 WITH SOME LOW CLOUD AT KMCK SCT040 BETWEEN 09Z-16Z.
WNW WINDS 10-20KTS THRU 16Z MONDAY...THEN 20-30KTS THRU 00Z
TUESDAY AND WINDS DROP DOWN TO 10-15KTS.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 251 AM MST MON NOV 24 2014

TUESDAY AFTERNOON NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BECOME BREEZY AND RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES WILL FALL TO NEAR 15 PERCENT. AT THIS POINT RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES CLOSE TO 15 PERCENT APPEAR TO BE TOO SHORT LIVED TO
WARRANT ISSUING A WATCH FOR THE AREA DESPITE GUSTS NEAR 30MPH
DURING THE AFTERNOON. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR INCASE HAZARDOUS
WEATHER CONDITIONS APPEAR MORE LIKELY TO OCCUR.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JTL
LONG TERM...FS/JTL
AVIATION...JN
FIRE WEATHER...JTL


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