Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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000
FXUS63 KGLD 021919
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
119 PM MDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 118 PM MDT SUN AUG 2 2015

A RIDGE WILL RESIDE OVER THE ROCKIES THROUGH MONDAY. A SURFACE
TROUGH WILL RESIDE OVER NORTHERN AND EASTERN COLORADO DURING THIS
TIME.

LACK OF ANY SIGNIFICANT FORCING WILL LIMIT COVERAGE OF STORMS
TONIGHT. A MINOR SHORTWAVE CAN BE OBSERVED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
OVER EASTERN WYOMING. PLAN ON SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THE NORTHWEST
FA TONIGHT. STRONGER FORCING STARTS TO MOVE INTO THE FA MONDAY
AFTERNOON. THE GFS AND NAM ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
PRECIPITATION MOVING INTO THE SOUTHWEST FA DURING THE AFTERNOON SO
WILL GO WITH CHANCE POPS THERE AND SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TO THE EAST.

MIN TEMPERATURES TONIGHT SHOULD COOL TO THE MID AND UPPER 60S. MAX
TEMPERATURES MONDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 80S IN EASTERN
COLORADO TO THE LOWER 90S IN THE EASTERN FA.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 229 AM MDT SUN AUG 2 2015

A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE SITUATED OVER THE SOUTHWEST WILL CONTINUE
TO TRIGGER THE DEVELOPMENT OF WEAK TROUGHS WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
THE STRENGTH AND TIMING OF THE DISTURBANCES VARIES A BIT BETWEEN THE
ECMWF AND THE GFS HOWEVER THE BEST CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL
BE ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. OTHERWISE WE ARE LOOKING AT 20 TO
30 PERCENT POPS AT BEST THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SEEMS TO BE THE BEST IN THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF
THE CWA DUE TO THE CLOSE PROXIMITY TO A QUASI STATIONARY THETA E
BOUNDARY DRAPED FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST FROM CENTRAL MONTANA TO
SOUTHERN MISSOURI. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOUT AVERAGE WITH HIGHS IN
THE MID TO UPPER 80S AND LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1109 AM MDT SUN AUG 2 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST AT KGLD AND KMCK FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS
AS THE RIDGE CONTINUES OVER THE ROCKIES. THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT
EXPECTED AT EITHER SITE.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FS
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...FS



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