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000
FXUS63 KGLD 011952
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
152 PM MDT FRI AUG 1 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 149 PM MDT FRI AUG 1 2014

UPDATE ISSUED TO ACCT FOR POP-UP SHOWERS CURRENTLY SHOWING ON
LOCAL RADAR. LOOKING FOR DISSIPATION AFTER SUNSET AND HAVE
ADJUSTED POPS AS SUCH. SOME CLOUD COVER ADJUSTMENTS AS WELL TO
ACCT FOR -RW..OTHERWISE NO OTHER CHANGES AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 104 PM MDT FRI AUG 1 2014

ANOTHER NICE NIGHT ON TAP FOR THE FORECAST AREA WITH HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE REGION. A FEW MID/HIGH CLOUDS WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA
DURING THIS TIME...OTHERWISE MAINLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED. MODELS DO
CONTINUE TO SHOW SURFACE RIDGE SHIFTING EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT 12-24
HOURS...AND WITH THIS A SHIFT...A MORE SOUTHERLY FLOW FOR THE AREA
ESPECIALLY TOWARDS 12Z SATURDAY IS EXPECTED. THIS WILL RESULT IN
SLIGHTLY WARMER OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES THAN THE AREA HAS SEEN OVER
PAST COUPLE OF NIGHTS WITH QUICKER WARMUP TOWARDS SUNRISE. OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL RANGE IN THE MID 50S TO NEAR 60F.

GOING INTO SATURDAY...MAIN UPPER RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE OVER WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE COUNTRY...WITH SURFACE RIDGE PUSHING EAST INTO
CENTRAL PORTIONS OF KANSAS. INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS DURING THE
COURSE OF THE DAY WILL ALLOW FOR PERSISTENT WAA INTO THE AREA WITH
850MB TEMPS RANGING FROM +22C TO +27C. THIS SCENARIO WILL PUT THE
FORECAST AREA ON TAP FOR NEAR 90F IN MANY LOCALES FOR HIGH
TEMPERATURES. BROAD UPPER RIDGE WILL HOWEVER ALLOW A COUPLE OF WEAK
700 MB SHORTWAVES TO WORK SOUTH DURING THE COURSE OF THE DAY...BUT
CURRENT MODEL TRAJECTORY KEEPS ANY CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION TO OUR
EAST...BUT WITH GOOD CHANCE AREAS SEEING SOME INCREASED CLOUD COVER
LATE IN THE DAY THOUGH...WITH FOCUS OVER THE COUNTIES OF
(NORTON...GRAHAM...DECATUR KS AND HITCHCOCK...RED WILLOW IN
NEBRASKA).

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 247 AM MDT FRI AUG 1 2014

A HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGE WILL BE LOCATED JUST WEST OF THE AREA
MONDAY. AN EXTENSIVE PLUME OF MOISTURE WILL STREAM NORTHWARD ON THE
WEST SIDE OF THE RIDGE AND THEN EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES
BY LATE MONDAY AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS EASTWARD AND WEAKENS. EXTENSIVE
CIRRUS SEEMS PROBABLE IN THIS SCENARIO AND MADE UPWARD ADJUSTMENTS
TO SKY COVER. A RATHER COMPLICATED EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER FLOW
PATTERN WILL OCCUR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES
TREK ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS.

A RELATIVELY SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL TRAVERSE THE NORTHERN
EDGE OF THE RIDGE AND RESULT IN CONVECTION POSSIBLY AS EARLY AS
MONDAY EVENING. A FAIRLY SUBSTANTIAL AMOUNT OF TERRAIN INDUCED
CONVECTION DURING PEAK HEATING WILL FORM OVER THE ROCKIES WITH MEAN
TRAJECTORIES FAVORABLE FOR CONVECTION TO POSSIBLY ENTER THE FAR
WESTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. GREATER CHANCES WILL OCCUR
ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS THE
SHORTWAVES MOVE EASTWARD THROUGH THE AREA. A COLD FRONT SHOULD PASS
THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY BRINGING NORTHERLY WINDS AND COOLER
TEMPERATURES. ENSEMBLE SPREAD GROWS CONSIDERABLY BY LATE WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY. AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE POP IS JUSTIFIED FOR THURSDAY
AS WEAK DIFFICULT TO RESOLVE SHORTWAVES MOVE THROUGH IN
WEST/NORTHWESTERLY FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1104 AM MDT FRI AUG 1 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD FOR BOTH TAF
SITES. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL PROVIDE A MIX OF SKC WITH
SOME HIGH CLDS FEW-SCT150-300. WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM WNW TO MORE
SOUTHERLY BY 12Z SATURDAY. GLD WILL HAVE MORE SSW WINDS 5-10KTS BY
12Z TOMORROW...AND MCK WILL SEE MAINLY SSE BY THIS TIME.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JN
SHORT TERM...JN
LONG TERM...BRB
AVIATION...JN