Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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000
FXUS63 KGLD 012102
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
302 PM MDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 244 PM MDT MON SEP 1 2014

UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATES A LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE CONUS WITH
SMALLER SCALE SHORT WAVE TROUGHS WITHIN THE LARGER SCALE FEATURE.
OVER THE HIGH PLAINS VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED CLEARING SKIES
BEHIND A DEPARTING SHORT WAVE TROUGH THAT BROUGHT SHOWERS TO
LOCATIONS NORTH OF HIGHWAY 36.

FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE
MOVE EAST OUT OF THE AREA WITH CLEARING SKIES BEHIND IT.  FURTHER
WEST ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH WAS MOVING TOWARD THE
AREA FROM THE WEST.  AT THE SURFACE A SMALL AREA OF CONVERGENCE HAD
DEVELOPED AHEAD OF THE UPPER LEVEL FEATURE WHERE CUMULUS CLOUDS HAVE
BEGUN TO FORM.  TO THE EAST A SURFACE HIGH MOVING ACROSS THE TRI-
STATE AREA.  ANTICIPATE THESE CUMULUS CLOUDS TO CONTINUE TO BUILD
THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON LEADING TO ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER
EASTERN COLORADO BY EARLY EVENING.

TONIGHT THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH TO THE WEST WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA.
AHEAD OF THE TROUGH THE ENVIRONMENT WILL SATURATE IN THE 500-600MB
LAYER AND 700-500MB FRONTOGENESIS WILL DEVELOP OVER EAST CENTRAL
COLORADO...THEN SHIFT EAST ACROSS THE SOUTH HALF OF THE AREA THROUGH
THE NIGHT.  THETA-E LAPSE RATES IN THAT LAYER WILL BE STEEPER THAN
THIS MORNING WHEN THE ISOLATED SHOWERS DEVELOPED ALONG THE KS/NE
BORDER...SO AM FAIRLY CONFIDENT SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP BUT REMAIN
ISOLATED FOR THE MOST PART.  TOWARD MIDNIGHT MID LEVEL LIFT
STRENGTHENS OVER WEST CENTRAL KANSAS SO WILL INCREASE PRECIP.
CHANCES SOME.  DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL
MOVE EAST OF THE AREA WITH DRIER AIR MOVING IN BEHIND IT.  WITH THE
MAJORITY OF THE INSTABILITY AND LIFT OVER THE SOUTH HALF OF THE AREA
WILL KEEP THE NORTHERN HALF DRY.  THOUGHT ABOUT GOING HIGHER WITH
THE RAINFALL CHANCES BUT STORM MOVEMENT OF 45 MPH AND THE DEEP DRY
LAYER BELOW 600MB WILL LIKELY HINDER QUITE A BIT OF THE RAINFALL
FROM REACHING THE GROUND.

TUESDAY A LEE SIDE TROUGH WILL DEVELOP NEAR THE ROCKIES CAUSING THE
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT TO TIGHTEN OVER THE AREA.  AS A RESULT THE
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BECOME BREEZY.  MEANWHILE 0-1KM MIXED LAYER
INSTABILITY INCREASES OVER THE WEST HALF DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH
LITTLE TO NO CINH.  HOWEVER THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE ANY SURFACE
CONVERGENCE OR UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH TO SPARK OFF STORM
DEVELOPMENT EXCEPT FOR THE RATHER BROAD SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING IN
DURING THE AFTERNOON.  AS A RESULT WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY FOR
NOW DESPITE THE UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT OVER THE WEST HALF OF THE
AREA.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 244 PM MDT MON SEP 1 2014

THE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER THE ROCKIES AND HIGH PLAINS REGIONS
TRANSITIONS BACK TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT BY THURSDAY AS THE HIGH
PRESSURE AREA OVER THE SOUTHERN UNITED STATES MOVES OVER THE
SOUTHEAST U.S. AND AN UPPER TROUGH SWINGS INTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST AND DEEPENS OVER THE WEST COAST WITH THE NORTHERN
PORTION OF THE TROUGH SHEARING OUT ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA.

MODELS FALL OUT OF SYNC BY THE WEEKEND AS SOLUTIONS DIFFER ON THE
STRENGTH AND SPEEDS OF THE SHORT WAVES LIFTING OUT OF THE WEST
COAST TROUGH AND ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND HIGH PLAINS.

HAVE KEPT THE LONG TERM PERIOD INITIALLY DRY WHILE THE CENTRAL
HIGH PLAINS ARE STILL UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE HIGH PRESSURE
AREA ALOFT AND HAVE ALSO KEPT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MAIN THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST
AREA AS A FRONT SAGS SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION BY LATE FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. HAVE ALSO KEPT COOLER TEMPERATURES IN PLACE ON FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN. THE FRONT APPEARS
TO LIFT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AGAIN BY SUNDAY...SO HAVE WARMED
TEMPERATURES IN RESPONSE AS WELL HAVE BROAD-BRUSHED WEAK POPS
ACROSS THE AREA BY MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1141 AM MDT MON SEP 1 2014

VFR CONDITIONS FORECAST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. LIGHT WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TODAY AS A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST ACROSS THE
TRI-STATE AREA. TONIGHT THE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE LIGHT.
TUESDAY MORNING THE WINDS WILL TURN TO THE SOUTH AND INCREASE SOME
AS A LEE TROUGH DEVELOPS NEAR THE ROCKIES CAUSING THE SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA TO TIGHTEN. SOUNDINGS FOR BOTH
SITES DO SHOW A POTENTIAL FOR LOW STRATUS TO DEVELOP AROUND
SUNRISE BUT WILL LEAVE IT OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR NOW SINCE THERE
IS LOW CONFIDENCE AN MVFR DECK WILL DEVELOP.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JTL
LONG TERM...LOCKHART
AVIATION...JTL



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