Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

000
FXUS63 KGLD 221941
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
141 PM MDT MON SEP 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 123 PM MDT MON SEP 22 2014

18Z WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED STRONG SHORT
WAVE TROUGH MOVING TOWARDS THE TRI STATE AREA THROUGH NORTHERN
COLORADO. AT THE SFC...TROUGHING NEAR THE KS/CO STATE LINE HAD
RESULTED IN STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
CWA.

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN WILL BE PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH THE
NIGHT AS AFOREMENTIONED STRONG TROUGH SWEEPS ACROSS THE AREA. NEAR
TERM MODELS GENERALLY AGREE THAT ELEVATED MOSTLY WEAK INSTABILITY
WILL GRADUALLY MOVE EAST TONIGHT...BUT NUMERICAL SOLUTIONS SHOWING
A HIGH DEGREE OF VARIABILITY ESPECIALLY WITH RESPECT TO CONVECTIVE
ALLOWING MODELS. HAVE GENERALLY FOLLOWED A CONSENSUS APPROACH
HOLDING HIGHEST POPS ALONG NORTHERN CWA WHICH IS CLOSER TO UPPER
LOW CENTER. MORNING UPSTREAM SOUNDINGS DO SUGGEST ANOMALOUSLY HIGH
PW VALUES AROUND 200 PERCENT OF NORMAL...BUT WITH WEAK
INSTABILITY...MODEL UNCERTAINTY AND SCATTERED NATURE OF CURRENT
PRECIPITATION HAVE KEPT ONLY MODEST PRECIP AMOUNTS.

PRECIP THREAT WILL DIMINISH TOMORROW MORNING AS UPPER TROUGH
DEPARTS AND FRONT STALLS ACROSS SOUTHERN CWA. THIS FRONT MAY
PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING STORMS SHOULD CINH
BE OVERCOME.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 237 AM MDT MON SEP 22 2014

500 MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA
THURSDAY...THOUGH EASTWARD PROGRESSION WILL BE SLOW. AS STRONG 500 MB
TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL
STRENGTHEN OVER THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN STATES. ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE AND
DOWNWARD VERTICAL MOTION WILL PRODUCE DRY CONDITIONS OVER THE TRI-
STATE AREA.

EXPECT 500 MB RIDGE TO AMPLIFY OVER THE DAKOTAS FRIDAY IN RESPONSE
TO CONTINUED DEEPENING OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST SYSTEM. FURTHER
EAST...A STRENGTHENING RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES WILL
KEEP THE PLAINS SHORTWAVE TROUGH FROM MOVING EAST. MODELS SHOW
EITHER A RETROGRESSION WITH THE LOW OR SECONDARY DEVELOPMENT OF LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS. BOTH SOLUTIONS ARE SOMEWHAT UNUSUAL FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR. FOR NOW...WILL LEAN TOWARDS THE DRIER GFS...BUT
CONFIDENCE IS RATHER LOW.

ATTENTION WILL TURN TO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST SYSTEM AS IT MOVES
INLAND THROUGH THE WEEKEND. GFS AND ECMWF ARE GETTING MORE IN LINE
WITH ANOTHER...THOUGH GFS IS FASTER WITH THE MAIN FEATURES. BY
SUNDAY THE CENTER OF THE LOW WILL BE OVER THE GREAT BASIN...AND A
SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL ADVECT OVER THE ROCKIES/PLAINS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ASSOCIATED UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION COULD TRIGGER
THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...BUT WILL KEEP THE
FORECAST DRY FOR NOW DUE TO LACK OF MODEL CONSISTENCY IN REGARDS TO
MOISTURE. THERE IS BETTER CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AND SUNDAY
NIGHT AS MAIN LOW CENTER MOVES OVER THE ROCKIES. LEE SIDE
CYCLOGENESIS WILL DEVELOP SUNDAY AFTERNOON...SO LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE NEAR THE SURFACE TROUGH AXIS WILL AID IN CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT. EXPECT SIMILAR CONDITIONS MONDAY...SO WILL KEEP
CONVECTIVE CHANCES IN THE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1208 PM MDT MON SEP 22 2014

MAIN CONCERN WILL BE STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS TODAY FOLLOWED BY
SCATTERED SHOWERS THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. DO NOT ANTICIPATE
GREATLY REDUCED FLIGHT CATEGORIES DUE TO RATHER HIGH CLOUD BASES
AND FOR THE MOST PART ONLY WEAK INSTABILITY. COULD SEE A PERIOD OF
LOW STRATUS AROUND 12Z BUT CONFIDENCE IN LONG LIVED PERIOD OF
STRATUS IS LOW.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JRM
LONG TERM...MENTZER
AVIATION...JRM



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.