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000
FXUS63 KGLD 100458
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
958 PM MST MON DEC 9 2013

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1233 PM MST MON DEC 9 2013

MAIN FORECAST ISSUE WILL BE HOW MUCH TEMPERATURES MODERATE/WARM
THROUGH TOMORROW. TEMPERATURES WARMING BETTER TODAY THAN EARLIER
INDICATIONS. ONLY PLACE THAT IS NOT RESPONDING TOO MUCH YET IS IN
THE FAR NORTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE AREA. SO WILL BE STARTING OUT
WARMER THAN WHAT HAS BEEN OCCURRING RECENTLY.

DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT TO THE WIND WILL BE STRONGER TONIGHT WITH
WINDS GETTING A LITTLE STRONGER AFTER MIDNIGHT. MINS MAY HAPPEN
EARLIER THAN NORMAL WITH STEADIER TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE AFTER 06Z.
BASED ON THAT...SOME INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER DURING THE MIDDLE OF
THE NIGHT...AND HIGHER DEWPOINTS...RAISED MINS CLOSER TO WHAT IS
PERFORMING WELL TODAY. DUE TO THE WARMER MINS...WIND CHILL READINGS
WILL BE WARMER TONIGHT. MANY LOCATIONS WERE MARGINAL LAST NIGHT. SO
WILL NOT BE ISSUING A WIND CHILL ADVISORY FOR TONIGHT. HOWEVER...THE
FAR WEST AND SOUTHWEST WILL GET CLOSE.

PER ABOVE DISCUSSION...TEMPERATURES RESPONDING WELL TO THE SUN AND
DOWNSLOPE WINDS. LOOK TO KEEP THOSE DOWNSLOPE WINDS INTO THE EARLY
AFTERNOON ON TUESDAY BEFORE THEY BECOME LESS FAVORABLE. LITTLE TO NO
SNOW IN THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE AREA WITH MORE SNOW FURTHER
NORTHEAST WHICH IS WHERE TODAYS COOLEST TEMPERATURES ARE. SO PER
THE BETTER PERFORMING GUIDANCE TODAY AND EXPECTED 850 MB
TEMPERATURES...RAISED MAXES ACROSS THE BOARD...ESPECIALLY IN THE
SOUTHWEST HALF. THERE TEMPERATURES COULD REACH THE LOWER 40S WITH
LOWER 30S IN THE FAR NORTHEAST.

OF NOTE...TODAY IN GOODLAND WE HAVE REACHED 20 DEGREES FOR THE
FIRST TIME SINCE THE 3RD.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1259 PM MST MON DEC 9 2013

TUESDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OVER
THE CWA AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS...WITH
A REINFORCING SHOT OF VERY COLD AIR. WITH SHORTWAVE RIDGE STARTING
TO BUILD BACK INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WAA WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE
AIR MASS FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST. TEMP FORECAST WILL BE TRICKY WITH
MUCH LESS STATIC FLOW IN PLACE. I KEPT FORECAST IN LINE WITH MOST
GUIDANCE SHOWING SINGLE DIGIT LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT...HIGHS JUST BELOW
FREEZING THURSDAY...AND OVERNIGHT LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT BACK IN THE
10-15F RANGE. ANY IMPACT OF SNOW COVER WILL LIKELY BE LIMITED TO
THESE PERIODS IN THE FAR EAST WHERE BETTER SNOW PACK WAS.

THURSDAY...NOT ANTICIPATING ANY MAJOR IMPACT FROM SNOW PACK DURING
THE EXTENDED EVEN IN THE EAST BASED ON RATE OF MELTING ALREADY
OBSERVED IN THE NEAR TERM. WITH NW FLOW OVER THE NORTHER PLAINS
SHIFTING FURTHER NORTH AND SHORTWAVE RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS I AM ANTICIPATING DECENT WARMING ON THURSDAY. MODEL
H85 TEMPS WOULD ACTUALLY SUPPORT HIGHS NEARING 50F THURSDAY WITH
AVERAGE MIXING. I TRENDED TEMPS UP TO THE LOW TO MID 40S FOR MOST OF
OUR CWA USING ECMWF (DUE TO IT NOT BEING AS STRONGLY BIASED BY SNOW
PACK).

FRIDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT...SEASONAL TEMPS (HIGHS 40S/LOWS TEENS) ARE
EXPECTED WITH TEMPS ALOFT ONLY COOLING SLIGHTLY AS A WEAK COLD FRONT
MOVES INTO THE PLAINS. CLOSED LOW OVER SW US WEAKENS AND MOVES
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AS AN OPEN WAVE...AS SHORTWAVE IN
NORTHERN STREAM MOVES OUT OF PAC NW. MOISTURE/LIFT IS GENERALLY
SPLIT AROUND OUR CWA...AND MODELS GENERALLY SUPPORT DRY CONDITIONS.
LATEST RUN OF GFS DOES DEVELOP SOME LIGHT QPF FRIDAY NIGHT...HOWEVER
WITH BEST FORCING WELL NORTH OR SOUTH I AM THINKING WE MIGHT ONLY
SEE A FEW FLURRIES AT THE MOST FRIDAY NIGHT WITH THIS SYSTEM.

SATURDAY-MONDAY...NORTHWESTERLY ZONAL FLOW REDEVELOPS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS WITH MAIN STORM TRACK WELL NORTH OF OUR CWA.
CURRENTLY EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS AND SEASONAL TEMPS TO CONTINUE INTO
NEXT WEEK...IF NOT ABOVE NORMAL BY THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK. WE
COULD STILL A WEAK COLD FRONT SATURDAY WHICH WILL COOL THE AIR MASS
ALOFT A LITTLE...HOWEVER NOT OUTSIDE OUR SEASONAL NORMS (LOW 40S
WEST/LOW TO MID 30S EAST). THE REMAINING PERIODS SHOULD SEE HIGHS AT
LEAST IN THE LOW TO MID 40S IF NOT IN THE 50S IF THE WARMER END OF
GUIDANCE IS CORRECT. H85 TEMPS ON 12Z RUN OF ECMWF SUN/MON IN THE
10-12C RANGE WOULD ACTUALLY SUPPORT UPPER 50S/NEAR 60F UNDER IDEAL
MIXING CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 958 PM MST MON DEC 9 2013

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT KMCK AND KGLD FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 24
HOURS. THE BIGGEST CHALLENGE FOR THIS TAF ISSUANCE IS WINDS. OF
IMMEDIATE CONCERN IS SLIGHTLY STRONGER WINDS ONGOING THIS EVENING
THAN WHAT WAS EARLIER ANTICIPATED. WINDS HAVE CONSISTENTLY BEEN IN
THE 12 TO 15 KNOT RANGE AT KMCK OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF
HOURS...AND EVEN A LITTLE STRONGER AT KGLD. UPSTREAM OB TRENDS AND
SHORT TERM MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGEST THIS SHOULD CONTINUE FOR AT
LEAST THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THE POSITION AND STRENGTH OF LEE SIDE
TROUGH IN COLORADO WILL DETERMINE THE STRENGTH AND DIRECTION OF
WINDS TOMORROW. THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO IS FOR A LIGHT WESTERLY
OR SOUTHWESTERLY WIND. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH TOMORROW
EVENING RESULTING IN A SHIFT TO A NORTHWESTERLY DIRECTION. AN
INCREASE IN MID/HIGH CLOUDS IS EXPECTED LATE TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
POST FRONTAL LOW STRATUS DOES NOT APPEAR LIKELY AT THIS TIME.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM...DR
AVIATION...BRB