Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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652
FXUS63 KGLD 212042
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
142 PM MST Sun Jan 21 2018

.SHORT TERM...(Late this afternoon through Monday)
Issued at 140 PM MST Sun Jan 21 2018

The forecast area is beginning to feel the effects of the storm
system moving east of the Rockies and across the Central High Plains
Region today into the Central Plains states on Monday.  As of mid
day today, light drizzle and freezing drizzle had spread eastward
across the region with a transition to light snow over eastern
Colorado and the eastern Colorado border area.  Also at mid day
today, the surface low center was over far northeast New Mexico
while the upper low center wasn`t far away and appeared to be moving
across southwest Colorado.

The upper low center is expected to move across southwest Kansas
this evening and into the Kansas City area by mid day on Monday
while the surface low center moves along the frontal boundary
through the Panhandle region this afternoon and lifts across the
Kansas City area Monday morning in advance of the upper low center.
As this system transitions across the region, expect some light ice
accumulations to continue in the areas of freezing drizzle mainly
east of Highway 27, moving eastward until the transition to snow can
occur across the entire forecast area by early this evening. Around
one tenth of an inch of ice is possible with some localized higher
amounts, but less than one quarter of an inch of ice is expected.

The greatest snowfall amounts should occur from late this afternoon
through the early morning hours on Monday morning.  Portions of Yuma
county have already measured 3 inches of new snow today with the
northern sections of the forecast area expected to receive between
10 and 12 inches of snow eastward along the Nebraska and Kansas
border region. Snowfall amounts will taper off to about 8 to 10
inches along the I-70 corridor to around 3 to 5 inches along the
southern border of the forecast area into southwest Kansas.

Along with the concern surrounding the total snowfall amounts, the
bigger concern is the possibility of strong north winds on the back
side of this system as it begins to lift out across the plains.
These strong winds and fresh snow are expected to produce
blizzard conditions across the forecast area. Late this afternoon
and evening north winds are expected to increase to between 30 and
40 mph with gusts as high as 50 mph. Current guidance shows winds
a little slower to increase and spread eastward across the region
than previously expected, so the onset areas of blowing and
drifting snow have also been delayed slightly into the late
afternoon and evening hours today.

As the actual snowfall associated with this storm tapers off from
west to east across the forecast area on Monday, the strong winds
will remain mainly across the eastern sections of the forecast area
well into the afternoon.  This will keep the possibility of blowing
and drifting snow associated with blizzard conditions in place
across mainly the eastern sections of the forecast area. Have
decided to extend the easternmost segment of the current Blizzard
Warning through 18Z on Monday. This will match up much better with
the surrounding offices and the current forecast
expectations.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Saturday)
Issued at 300 AM MST Sun Jan 21 2018

Upper ridge axis will move across the central plains Wednesday and
Thursday resulting in dry and warm conditions. Any lingering snow
cover may cause a few areas to see cooler temperatures. Next
trough moves through on Friday with a chance for light snow.
Models have been trending down on amounts which were already light
anyway, so this may not even warrant an advisory with only a light
dusting. It will be windy on the backside Friday night and
Saturday as ridge rebuilds. Saturday will be dry with temperatures
near to slightly below normal.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
Issued at 1014 AM MST Sun Jan 21 2018

IFR to LIFR conditions due mainly to low ceilings are expected at
GLD and MCK with freezing drizzle continuing through the next
couple hours. The transition to light snow will occur between
21-22Z as north winds continue to increase through the afternoon.
Around 22-00Z, expect a transition to light snow with blowing snow
and possible VLIFR conditions with intermittent moderate to heavy
snow through about 08Z. Areas of light snow and blowing snow will
continue after 08Z with visibilities likely the main factor in
keeping IFR to LIFR conditions intact as ceilings beginning to
raise. Improvement in conditions to MVFR or VFR are not expected
until late in the TAF period after 17Z.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...Blizzard Warning until 5 AM MST /6 AM CST/ Monday for KSZ001-002-
     013-014-027-028-041-042.

     Blizzard Warning until noon CST Monday for KSZ003-004-015-016-
     029.

CO...Blizzard Warning until 5 AM MST Monday for COZ090>092.

NE...Blizzard Warning until 5 AM MST /6 AM CST/ Monday for NEZ079-080.

     Blizzard Warning until noon CST Monday for NEZ081.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LOCKHART
LONG TERM...024
AVIATION...LOCKHART



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