Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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000
FXUS63 KGLD 291947
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
147 PM MDT WED JUL 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1022 AM MDT WED JUL 29 2015

ADJUSTED POPS/WX THROUGH TONIGHT TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT TRENDS.
VERY LIGHT SHOWERS/SPRINKLES CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS CWA AS WEAK
LIFT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION AROUND NW EXTENT OF UPPER RIDGE/SW
EXTEND OF UPPER LOW. LAPSE RATES AROUND 7 C/KM MAY CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS AS WEAK ENERGY CONTINUES TO ROTATE TO
THE NORTHEAST...MAYBE A RUMBLE OF THUNDER...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW
CONSIDERING LACK OF ANY CAPE THROUGH TONIGHT ACROSS OUR CWA. I
DECIDED TO REMOVE THUNDER MENTION DURING THIS UPDATE. VERY DRY
LAYER BELOW 700MB WILL LIMIT MEASURABLE POTENTIAL...SO I LIMITED
SLIGHT CHANCE SHOWERS TO SW WITH SPRINKLES ELSEWHERE THROUGH THIS
EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 230 AM MDT
WED JUL 29 2015

CONVECTION IN SOUTHWEST TO CENTRAL KANSAS ALONG AND JUST NORTH OF
THE OLD STALLED OUT FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOWS LITTLE MOVEMENT ON
LATEST RADAR RETURNS. NONETHELESS...OUTFLOW BOUNDARY PROPAGATING
NORTH MAY INITIATE NEW CONVECTION AND THE SYNOPTIC SCALE IS NOT
UNFAVORABLE WITH QVECTOR CONVERGENCE INDICATED THROUGH MID
MORNING...SO WILL CARRY SOME LOW POPS IN SOUTHERN AREAS. VERY WEAK
LIFT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT AS UPPER FLOW GRADUALLY
TRANSITIONS TO NORTHWEST WITH EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGHS
INTERACTING WITH MEAGER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MAINLY IN SOUTHERN
AREAS FOR SLIGHT CHANCE POPS. MOISTURE GETS A LITTLE BETTER ON
THURSDAY WITH SOUTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS AND ANOTHER WEAK WAVE
IN THE UPPER FLOW RESULTING IN ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MAINLY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS OK
AT AROUND 40KTS BUT INSTABILITY IS MARGINAL AND WITH WEAK FORCING
SEVERE THREAT WILL BE LIMITED. PATTERN DOES NOT CHANGE MUCH ON
FRIDAY BUT WITH SUBTLE HEIGHT RISES FORECAST HAVING A DIFFICULT
TIME IDENTIFYING ANY SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING. AS A RESULT WILL
LEAVE FRIDAY DRY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL TODAY THEN
GRADUALLY WARM TO NEAR NORMAL BY FRIDAY.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 145 PM MDT WED JUL 29 2015

THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE DOMINATED BY AN UPPER LEVEL
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM POSITIONED OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL CONUS...WHICH
WILL BRING THE RETURN OF NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO
MID 90S ON FRIDAY.  THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO AMPLIFY
OVER THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS ON FRIDAY...WHICH WILL BRING
MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS.  HOWEVER...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE
POSITIONED OVER THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST CORNER OF THE FORECAST AREA
WHICH WILL BRING SOME CHANCES FOR SOME DEVELOPING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.  SEVERE INDICATORS AT
THIS TIME LOOK MARGINAL AT BEST...SO SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT
ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AMPLIFIES OVER THE WEEKEND WITH A LACK OF A
SURFACE FORCING MECHANISM...SO EXPECTING DRY WEATHER FOR THE REST OF
THE WEEKEND SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.  WARM SURFACE SOUTHERLY
FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO BRING INCREASED MOISTURE WITH DEW POINTS IN
THE MID 60S AND TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S.

THE NEXT CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE TUESDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS REGION.  MODEL
FORECASTS DIFFER AS TO THE LOCATION AND TIMING OF THE FEATURE...WITH
THE ECMWF BRINGING THE DISTURBANCE IN THE FASTEST STARTING TUESDAY.
AT THIS POINT...NOT VERY CONFIDENT THAT SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL
DEVELOP CONSIDERING GFS/CANADIAN/DGEX MODELS ALL INDICATE THE RIDGE
MAINTAINING STRENGTH OVER THE REGION.  TO STAY WITHIN FORECAST
COLLABORATION THRESHOLDS...KEPT CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION IN THE
FORECAST...ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING THAT THE ECMWF TENDS TO LATCH ON
TO FORECAST PATTERNS SOONER THAN THE OTHER MODELS IN THE LONG TERM
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1116 AM MDT WED JUL 29 2015

VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL AT BOTH KGLD AND KMCK TERMINALS.
THERE IS A POSSIBILITY FOR 1500 KFT CIGS AT KGLD AROUND
12Z...HOWEVER MOST GUIDANCE IS TRENDING TOWARDS VFR...AND KGLD MAY
BE JUST TO THE NE OF BEST BL MOISTURE AXIS. LIGHT SHOWERS OR
VIRGA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE WITHIN THE VICINITY OF BOTH KGLD AND
KMCK THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS NEAR THESE SHOWERS AROUND 20KT
POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE WINDS WILL BE LESS THAN 10KT THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE LINGERS OVER THE REGION.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DR
SHORT TERM...024
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...DR


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