636
FXUS63 KGLD 081811
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
1211 PM MDT Tue Jul 8 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Storms are possible Tuesday with the main threat of strong to
  damaging wind gusts.

-Storms will be possible daily through the end of the workweek
 at least with the main threat of damaging winds.

- Remaining mild throughout with highs around the low to mid
  90s.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 145 AM MDT Tue Jul 8 2025

Central plains remains under northwest flow around a ridge
centered over the Four Corners. Another embedded shortwave
trough will move through this afternoon and evening with a
chance for showers and thunderstorms. CAMs have been highly
variable with significant run-to-run changes, leading to low
confidence in how today will evolve. Instability will be up to
1500 j/kg and deep layer shear around 30 kts, not much different
than the last few days which saw robust convection develop. So
if something can get going not out of the question for another
round of severe storms with wind the main hazard, perhaps some
isolated hail in initial stages.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 1139 AM MDT Tue Jul 8 2025

Tonight through the overnight hours, weak ridging is still in
place over the region. Isolated to scattered storms are expected
to move through the area this afternoon and evening, mainly from
around 23z through 05z and the CAMs and short range models are
in pretty good agreement on this timing. These storms are
expected to fire up east of the Front Range in eastern Colorado
and progress through toward our area. There is still a decent
amount of model uncertainty regarding the severity of these
storms. Generally, the CAMs and short range models for both 06z
and 12z runs this morning showed the storms at their strongest
just west of us and in our westernmost areas before weakening as
it moves across the area. Shear looks to be a little more
limited/conditional today, despite favorable CAPE and moisture. The
environment however is still favorable for severe storms,
especially in westernmost areas, but they will be a bit more
isolated in coverage than previous nights. The main threat will
be damaging winds 60-75mph, but large hail will be possible as
well. We are outlooked in a Marginal Risk of Severe Weather to
reflect this risk as well. These storms should be fairly
progressive, so the flash flood concern is very minimal, and we
are not outlooked by WPC for a flooding risk. MSW


&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 1139 AM MDT Tue Jul 8 2025

Looking at the long term forecast, weak ridging will persist
through the area tomorrow (Wednesday) and generally be a bit
stronger Wednesday. There will be an isolated chance of storms
Wednesday afternoon and evening. The chances of these storms
occurring is low (PoPs around 10-20% or less), but if they
occur, the best location to see these storms will be in the
northeasternmost areas. These storms will have the potential for
subsevere to severe gusty winds (50-60mph) primarily, but there
will be a risk for large hail as well if they occur. Reflecting
this risk, we are outlooked in a Marginal Risk for Severe
Weather for just our northeastern areas.

Thursday, a shortwave upper level system will be moving near the
area, enhancing the chances for rain and severe storms again,
primarily during the afternoon and evening hours. There is still
some model uncertainty regarding where the storms will begin to
fire up and how strong they will be. But the globals are in
decent agreement that around 18-21z, storms will begin to fire
up east of the Front Range and progress through our area
throughout the evening, especially as we get toward 00z through
06z. The best timing to see severe weather at least looking at
the trends will be between 21z and 03z. We are outlooked in a
Marginal Risk for Severe Weather for Thursday, but would not be
surprised if the Slight Risk off to our east gets expanded into
our area in the next 1-2 days. Regardless, severe weather will
be favorable for this system with all modes of severe weather
possible at this time. Additionally, as these storms move
through, they could slow down a little, which could cause some
minor flash flooding issues due to the efficient rainfall. We
are outlooked in a Marginal Risk of Heavy Rainfall to reflect
this potential. There is still quite a bit of model
uncertainty, and things could change depending on how things
progress over the next 1-2 days. We will keep monitoring for
changes.

Friday through the weekend forecast still has quite a bit of
uncertainty since it depends on how these systems progress first
over the next few days. But generally, there will be the chance
for storms daily during the afternoon and evening hours with the
potential for a few of these storms to be severe. We will keep
monitoring for changes to determine further details on the
severity and mode of these storms. MSW


&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1115 AM MDT Tue Jul 8 2025

VFR conditions prevail at all area airports and will prevail at
MCK throughout the forecast period. Conditions at GLD will drop
to MVFR late this evening after 9pm MT as a cluster of storms
is expected to move through the area. Additionally, wind shear
will be 40-50kts at both GLD and MCK late tonight for a few
hours as this system moves through the area. VFR conditions will
return at GLD by midnight and persist through the end of the
forecast period. Wind shifts greater than 30 degrees will also
be likely throughout the forecast period at both area airports.
MSW

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...
SHORT TERM...Williams
LONG TERM...Williams
AVIATION...Williams