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000
FXUS63 KGLD 181640
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
1040 AM MDT Wed Oct 18 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1040 AM MDT Wed Oct 18 2017

No change to previous forecast/reasoning for this afternoon
through tonight.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 157 AM MDT Wed Oct 18 2017

Latest upper air analysis shows a short wave trough moving onto
the Plains. At the surface a cold front was following the short
wave trough over Central Wyoming.

Today a weak cold front will move through the forecast area. The
north half will have more time in the slightly cooler air today.
Behind the cold front northerly winds will become breezy during
the late morning and into the early afternoon. Very little cloud
cover is expected with the frontal passage due to the dry
environment. Am expecting the winds to decline during the middle
and late afternoon. There could be a brief window for fire weather
conditions this afternoon. See fire weather section for further
information.

Tonight lows will be similar to last night.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 157 AM MDT Wed Oct 18 2017

Thursday and Friday the weather will be dry ahead of the next
upper level trough deepening over the western CONUS. Highs will
warm slightly as warm air advection increases ahead of the cold
front which moves through Saturday morning.

North winds will increase Saturday morning behind the cold front.
Between the cold front and the upper level trough axis will be a
small chance for rainfall over the southwest part of the forecast
area. Looking at soundings, could see the low chance for rainfall
spreading across more of the forecast area as we get closer to
Saturday.

Another cold front will move through the forecast area early next
week. Models are now in agreement with a closed low splitting off
from the trough to the east of the forecast area. How quickly the
closed low and open wave move east will dictate how quickly the
front will move through. Current high for Monday is more of an
average between the models. The faster frontal timing will lead to
cooler highs for Monday. At this time confidence is not very high
as to which scenario is more likely to occur. Am not expecting
any rainfall with the frontal passage due to a dry environment.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
Issued at 1030 AM MDT Wed Oct 18 2017

VFR conditions will rule through the TAF period in association
with a very dry airmass in place across the Tri-State region.
W/WNW winds at 5-10 knots will shift to the north and increase to
15 knots with gusts to 20-22 knots for a 2-3 hour period early
this afternoon as high pressure builds into the area from the
north. Winds will shift to the northeast and weaken to ~10 knots
or less by 21Z. Winds will become light/variable by ~00Z and
will remain light/variable through the rest of the TAF period.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 157 AM MDT Wed Oct 18 2017

Late this morning and early this afternoon northerly winds will
reach their peak then decline. However relative humidity values
will fall below 15 percent as the winds are declining. Due to the
winds declining as relative humidity is also declining, would not
be surprised if there is an hour or so of critical fire weather
conditions west of Highway 27 this afternoon before winds become light
enough to not be a concern.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...VINCENT
SHORT TERM...JTL
LONG TERM...JTL
AVIATION...VINCENT
FIRE WEATHER...JTL