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000
FXUS63 KGLD 011825
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1125 AM MST SUN DEC 1 2013

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 257 AM MST SUN DEC 1 2013

FORECAST PROBLEMS WILL BE HOW WARM TO MAKE HIGH TEMPERATURES
THROUGH MONDAY WITH THE BIGGEST PROBLEM THE FRONTAL TIMING/HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY. SATELLITE SHOWING A COMPLEX AND AMPLIFIED
PATTERN OVER THE PACIFIC WHICH THEN TRANSITIONS TO A FLATTER FLOW
OVER THE COUNTRY. THE STRONG AND COLD UPPER SYSTEM THAT WILL USHER IN
A BIG CHANGE TO OUR WEATHER THIS WEEK IS SINKING SOUTH FROM THE GULF
OF ALASKA. WEAK COLD FRONT HAS SAGGED CLOSE TO THE NORTHERN PORTION
OF THE AREA THIS MORNING.

VERY STRONG WEST TO EAST JET TO THE SOUTH OF INCOMING SYSTEM. MODELS
MAY BE UNDERDOING THE JET A LITTLE BUT FOR THE MOST PART LOOK LIKE
THEY ARE HANDLING IT PRETTY WELL. THE UKMET AND CANADIAN WERE DOING
LITTLE BETTER ON THE MID LEVEL DEPICTION...ESPECIALLY FROM THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO ALASKA. THE UKMET/CANADIAN/ECMWF/NAM WERE
DOING WELL ON THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL FIELD.

TODAY/TONIGHT...LEFT FRONT QUADRANT AND SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE AREA FROM LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. PER
SATELLITE AND UPPER AIR ANALYSIS THESE FEATURES LOOK TO SPREAD MID
AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE AREA. BY THE EVENING...THE
SHORTWAVE AND JET ARE NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA. IT LOOKS LIKE THE
WEAK FRONT THAT IS NEAR THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA WILL PULL
AWAY. DID COOL OFF MAXES FROM YESTERDAYS READINGS. HOWEVER AM A
LITTLE NERVOUS ABOUT THAT SINCE MAX TEMPERATURE FORECASTS BY THE
MODELS HAVE BEEN AWFUL RECENTLY. SHOULD BE A MILD NIGHT FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION AND DOWNSLOPE WINDS INCREASING
THROUGH THE NIGHT.

MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT...MODEL DIFFERENCES START DURING THIS PERIOD.
LEFT FRONT QUADRANT OF A STRONGER JET LOOKS TO MOVE ACROSS DURING
THE DAY AND EVENING. MODEL 850 MB TEMPERATURES ARE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY
WARMER THAN WHAT WAS SHOWN YESTERDAY. NWP GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES
HAVE INCREASED FROM YESTERDAY. THE ECS MOS HAS WARMED FROM YESTERDAY
AND IT DID THE BEST OF ANY NWP FROM YESTERDAY. THERE IS ALSO A STRONG
DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT TO THE WINDS THROUGH THE DAY. HOWEVER THERE IS
ONE CAVEAT TO THIS WARMING. MODELS DO BRING IN A DECENT AMOUNT OF MID
AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHERN AND
EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE AREA...DUE TO THE JET AND WESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT. MODELS HAVE PERFORMED POORLY ON MAXES RECENTLY. SO AM
RELUCTANT IN MAKING TEMPERATURES TOO COOL. DID RAISE MAXES BUT NOT AS
MUCH AS I COULD IF THERE WAS PLENTY OF SUN AROUND.

WARM AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES THROUGH MOST OF THE NIGHT ESPECIALLY PER
THE EARLIER GUIDANCE. NOW THE NEWER GUIDANCE IS QUICKER IN BRINGING
IN THE FRONT AND/OR PREFRONTAL TROUGH. THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE
AREA LOOKS TO BE THE COOLEST BUT VERY UNSURE OF HOW THIS IS GOING TO
WORK.

TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT...STRONG JET WILL BE NEAR OR OVER THE NORTHERN
PORTION OF THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY. VERY UNCERTAIN AND DIFFICULT
HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST. THERE HAD BEEN A DIFFERENCE IN HOW FAST
THE VERY STRONG COLD FRONT WAS COMING IN. EARLIER DATA SUPPORTED
THE UKMET/CANADIAN MID/UPPER LEVEL SOLUTIONS WHICH TENDED TO BE IN
THE MIDDLE OF THE FASTER GFS AND THE SLOWER ECMWF. PER NATIONAL
DISCUSSION CAN SEE A DEEPER SOLUTION PER THE RIDGING BEHIND THE
SYSTEM BUT ALSO THE OTHER SOLUTION WITH A VERY STRONG UPPER JET
PUSHING OUT AN INITIAL PIECE OF THE UPPER TROUGH.

SO TRENDED TOWARD THE MIDDLE SOLUTIONS. HOWEVER...THE 00Z ECMWF AND
06Z NAM NOW HAVE JOINED THE FAST SOLUTIONS AND ARE FASTER THAN THE
MIDDLE OF THE ROAD SOLUTIONS. IT IS NOW LOOKING MORE LIKELY THAT A
FASTER FROPA WILL BE IN ORDER. NOT SURPRISING CONSIDERING THE SOURCE
REGION OF THE COLD AIR. SO COOLED MAXES FROM INITIAL THOUGHTS.
HOWEVER...THERE LOOKS TO BE AN ABSOLUTELY OBSCENE AND PROBLEMATIC
TIGHT GRADIENT ACROSS MY AREA. AM THINKING THAT A COOLING TREND TO
THE MAXES WILL BE IN ORDER IN FUTURE FORECASTS. AM THINKING NOW HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE MORNING.

WITH SUCH A STRONG COLD FRONT/COLD AIR ADVECTION...TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT AND HIGH 3 HOUR PRESSURE RISES...WINDS SHOULD BE AT LEAST
BREEZY BUT PROBABLY WINDY. FOR THE NIGHT...SOME DIFFERENCES ON THE
AMOUNT OF SATURATION OF THE LOW LEVEL AIR MASS AMONG THE MODELS. AM
THINKING...PER MORE MODEL OUTPUT INDICATING THIS...THAT THE LOWER
LEVELS SHOULD HAVE NO PROBLEM SATURATING BEHIND THE FRONT. MOISTURE
DEPTH SHOULD ONLY BE UP TO 700 MB IF THAT. CONSIDERING THE
TEMPERATURES IN THE COLUMN...THERE SHOULD BE NO QUESTION THAT THE
PHASE WILL BE SNOW. DENDRITIC ZONE WILL AT OR NEAR THE SURFACE.
THETA-E LAPSE RATES ARE NOT THE GREATEST. HOWEVER...CONSIDERING THE
COLD AIR ADVECTION AND STRONG MESOSCALE FORCING AND SOME SYNOPTIC
SCALE LIFT...AM POSITIVE WILL SEE SNOW WHICH IS USUALLY THE CASE WHEN
WE SEE THIS KIND OF AIR MASS ARRIVE. HOWEVER...IF THOUGH I THINK WILL
SEE SNOW AM NOT HIGH ON MEASURABLE/ACCUMULATING SNOW. SO HAVE
INSERTED FLURRIES THROUGH THE NIGHT. HOWEVER...IF MOISTURE DEPTH
INCREASES AND THE LAPSE RATES GET BETTER...THE PROSPECT OF MEASURABLE
WILL GET BETTER.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 257 AM MST SUN DEC 1 2013

WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY NIGHT...FORECAST STILL IN LINE FOR SIGNIFICANTLY
COLDER TEMPS ACROSS THE REGION AS POLAR AIR MASS MOVES SOUTH WITH
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM DEVELOPING IN THE WESTERN UNITED
STATES AND NORTHERN PLAINS. STRONGEST CAA WILL OCCUR WED NIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY WITH H85 TEMPS IN THE -15 (POSSIBLY AS LOW AS
-20C) ADVECTING SOUTH OVER OUR CWA AS CLOSED LOW CENTER MIGRATES
ACROSS NORTHERN PLAINS. DUE TO THE STRONG CAA AND LIKELY PRESENCE
OF THICK CLOUD COVER OVER OUR CWA I AM SKEPTICAL WE WILL SEE MUCH
WARMING AT ALL ON THURSDAY FROM MORNING LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS
TO 10F RANGE. I TRIMMED FORECAST A LITTLE TO REFLECT TEMPS IN THE
LOW TO MID TEENS ACROSS THE CWA. CRAZY THING IS...THIS IS PROBABLY
STILL TOO WARM BY 5 TO 7F. AFTERNOON TEMPS MIGHT EVEN BE COLDER
THAN MORNING TEMPS. WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR POTENTIAL WIND CHILL
CRITERIA WED- WED NIGHT AS TEMPS CONTINUE TO FALL AND BREEZY WINDS
ASSOCIATED WITH DEEP UNIDIRECTIONAL GRADIENT PERSISTS.

REGARDING PRECIP...BEST FORCING STILL APPEARS TO BE NORTH OF THE CWA
WED TO WED NIGHT AS A STRONG WAVE PASSES ACROSS NORTHERN PLAINS.
THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH LIFT AND MOISTURE TO PRODUCE LIGHT SNOW ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA...AND WITH TEMPERATURE PROFILES AS COLD AS THEY ARE
IT WILL NOT TAKE MUCH MOISTURE AT ALL TO SATURATE AND PRODUCE ICE
CRYSTALS WITHIN THE LOWEST 200MB OF THE ATMOSPHERE. I KEPT CHANCE
POPS IN PLACE WED NIGHT WITH INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN PRECIPITATION
FOR THIS PERIOD. WITH A LACK OF GOOD MOISTURE ADVECTION AND STRONG
UPPER LEVEL FORCING WELL NORTH...AMOUNTS SHOULD BE LIGHT (1 INCH OR
LESS). A SECOND WAVE COULD HELP PRODUCE ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW
DEVELOPMENT AS IT MOVES OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST US AND ACROSS NORTHERN
TX AND OKLAHOMA. THE TRACK IS FAR ENOUGH SOUTH OUR CWA MAY BE CUT
OFF AND NOT SEE MUCH ADDITIONAL SNOW ACTIVITY. AS A RESULT I ONLY
HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN PLACE THU AND THU NIGHT.

FRIDAY-SATURDAY...A VERY SLOW WARMING TREND (IF THAT IS WHAT YOU
WANT TO CALL IT) IS ADVERTISED BY GUIDANCE. IT STILL LOOKS LIKE WE
WILL BE ABOUT 20F BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE TEENS AND
20S. THE STEEP H5 RIDGE IS ADVERTISED TO REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE
EASTERN PACIFIC WELL BEYOND THE CURRENT FORECAST PERIOD WHICH WOULD
SUPPORT CONTINUED TROUGHING OVER THE CONUS AND THE POSSIBILITY OF
ADDITIONAL ARCTIC INTRUSIONS INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS IS
LIKELY NOT THE ONLY SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR WE WILL SEE IN THE NEXT 10
DAYS IF THIS IS CORRECT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1122 AM MST SUN DEC 1 2013

VFR CONDITIONS WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND GENERALLY LIGHT
WESTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AT MCK AND GLD.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM...DJR
AVIATION...LOCKHART