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000
FXUS63 KGLD 190529
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1129 PM MDT SAT MAY 18 2013

.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1142 AM MDT SAT MAY 18 2013

DRY LINE FAINTLY DETECTABLE ON KGLD RADAR AT 1745Z FROM NEAR ST
FRANCIS SOUTHWEST TO BURLINGTON AND THEN SOUTH TOWARDS CHEYENNE
WELLS. IT APPEARS TO BE SLOWLY MIXING EAST INTO KANSAS AND SHOULD
BE THE INITIATING MECHANISM FOR THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON.
EXTREME INSTABILITY WILL EXIST EAST OF THE DRY LINE AND STORMS WILL
QUICKLY GO SEVERE WITH VERY LARGE HAIL POSSIBLE. DEEP LAYER SHEAR
IS BEST FURTHER EAST FOR ROTATING STORMS...BUT EVEN NEAR THE DRY
LINE SHEAR MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR A SUPERCELL TO DEVELOP. AS A
RESULT...THERE MAY BE A TORNADO OR TWO IN THE AREA BEFORE ALL IS
SAID AND DONE. STORMS WILL MOVE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HOURS ENDING BY MIDNIGHT.

THERE WILL BE A LULL IN PRECIPITATION OVERNIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY
MORNING. HOWEVER...WITH UPPER SYSTEM SLOW TO MOVE OUT WILL SEE
SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. INSTABILITY IS NOT NEARLY AS IMPRESSIVE ON SUNDAY...IN
FACT IN WESTERN AREAS THERE IS LITTLE TO NO SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY
FORECAST...BUT CANT RULE OUT A SEVERE STORM OR TWO PRIMARILY IN THE
FAR EASTERN COUNTIES FROM MCCOOK TO HILL CITY WITH HAIL UP TO THE
QUARTER SIZE THE MAIN THREAT ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 105 PM MDT SAT MAY 18 2013

SUNDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY...UPPER LOW WILL BE OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE
PERIOD PROVIDING FOR BELOW NORMAL DAYTIME HIGHS AND NORMAL
OVERNIGHT LOWS. NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION TIL MONDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY WHEN CLOUDS AND LIFT INCREASE AS A VORT
MAX OR SERIES OF VORT MAXES MOVE ACROSS THE AREA AROUND THE UPPER
LOW.

TUESDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY...UPPER LOW LIFTS AWAY FROM THE AREA AT THE
BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD LEAVING DRY CONDITIONS. FOR WEDNESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY FORECAST AREA UNDER UPPER RIDGING AHEAD OF
A LARGE UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHWEST. VARIOUS DISTURBANCES
MOVE INTO THE AREA UNDERNEATH THE RIDGE IN WHATS LOOKS LIKE A
MONSOON SEASON PATTERN. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. TEMPERATURES NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1129 PM MDT SAT MAY 18 2013

THUNDERSTORMS HAVE REDEVELOPED BEHIND COLD FRONT IN EASTERN
COLORADO...AND SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE SHOWS THIS ACTIVITY SPREADING
EAST WITHIN VICINITY OF KGLD BY 08Z. COULDNT RULE OUT
THUNDERSTORMS AT KCMK...HOWEVER WITH FRONT POSSIBLY SLOWING DOWN
BEFORE REACHING THE TERMINAL AND INSTABILITY DECREASING AFTER
09Z...THIS ACTIVITY MAY NOT HOLD TOGETHER. DECIDED TO ONLY INCLUDE
MENTION OF VCTS AT KGLD FOR NOW. THERE SHOULD BE A BREAK IN
ACTIVITY IN THE MORNING BEFORE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS REDEVELOP
WITH UPPER LOW CENTER SHIFTING EAST MIDDAY SUNDAY. ANY
THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON SHOULD DISSIPATE BY EARLY EVENING.

OTHER PRIMARY AVIATION CONCERN IS FOG POTENTIAL WITH MOIST LOW
LEVELS AHEAD OF COLD FRONT POSSIBLY SUPPORTING PATCHY/LIGHT FOG
DEVELOPMENT WITHIN VICINITY OF KMCK THROUGH 14Z. WASNT CONFIDENT
ENOUGH TO GO LOWER THAN MVFR CIG/VIS FOR KMCK DURING THIS
ISSUANCE. PROGRESSION OF FRONT/THUNDERSTORMS WILL HAVE LARGE
IMPACT ON WHETHER THIS FOG DEVELOPS OR NOT AT KMCK.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...024
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...DR