Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 270703
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
103 AM MDT SAT AUG 27 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This afternoon through Tonight)
Issued at 1142 AM MDT Fri Aug 26 2016

17Z Water Vapor Imagery and RAP analysis indicated two short wave
troughs approaching the area...one system approaching from the
Texas panhandle while the second was currently moving to the east
over northwest Colorado. The latter trough will likely be the
primary trigger for precipitation chances this afternoon and
evening.

Thunderstorm chances will be the primary concern as expected
forcing has been slower than expected...resulting in a significant
delay in precipitation onset across the CWA. Last few scans of
visible satellite show an increase in cumulus ahead of short wave
trough and its sfc reflection...and imagine this more widespread
convective initiation will develop over next 2 hours. How far
east things get remain in question...and have a few doubts if
storms will make a great eastward push...or build south along
instability gradient and into stronger low level waa. Do not
really have a favored solution at this point but will trend PoPs
this evening to more of a compromise unless data leading to a more
preferred solution presents itself. Otherwise as storms end
across the area may see a brief period of clearing...but with
favorable humidity profiles expect fog and stratus to develop
during the overnight hours.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Friday)
Issued at 1247 AM MDT Sat Aug 27 2016

Models show scattered thunderstorms across the area Tuesday and
Wednesday. The upper pattern features a large ridge across the
eastern conus and a trough in the Pacific northwest. Forcing
apparently tied to weak shortwave troughs in the zonal flow
aloft and daytime heating in a somewhat moist air mass with
dewpoints forecast in the upper 50s to lower 60s. The only
surface feature of note would be a lee trough across eastern
Colorado, with a cold front getting hung up in the northern
plains. Instability/shear profiles not particularly impressive
under the ridge, so not expecting much if any in the way of a
severe threat. The ridge will build even stronger for the latter
part of the week with a corresponding decrease in thunderstorm
chances and temperatures climbing back into the 90s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night)
Issued at 1116 PM MDT Fri Aug 26 2016

Conditions at MCK and GLD will start out VFR with patchy and
localized fog developing as skies remain mostly clear, winds
become light and variable, and temperature dewpoint spreads go to
nill by 09z. Between 09z-12z conditions will rapidly become IFR to
LIFR as low clouds and fog become more widespread. Fog and low
clouds are expected to diminish between 14Z-16Z as temperatures
increase for a rapid transition back to VFR by 16Z.

&&

.GLD Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JRM
LONG TERM...024
AVIATION...LOCKHART


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