Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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000
FXUS63 KGLD 261940
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
140 PM MDT TUE APR 26 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 140 PM MDT TUE APR 26 2016

AS OF 2 PM CDT...1 PM MDT...SKIES ACROSS THE TRI-STATE REGION ARE
PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY. A WARM FRONT STRETCHED ACROSS THE REGION
FROM ROUGHLY ST FRANCIS KANSAS TO COLBY TO HILL CITY. A SURFACE LOW
IS ALSO APPARENT ON SATELLITE IMAGERY OVER YUMA COUNTY COLORADO.
TEMPERATURES NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT ARE IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 60S
WITH NORTHEAST WINDS. TEMPERATURES SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT HAVE
CLIMBED INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S WITH SOUTH WINDS BEING
OBSERVED. ALOFT...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS MOVING ACROSS SOUTHWEST
KANSAS TOWARDS THE TRI-STATE REGION.

FOR THIS AFTERNOON...THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT STILL APPEARS HIGHLY
CONDITIONAL. THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING IN FROM THE SOUTH WILL
ASSIST THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IF THE ENVIRONMENT IS RIGHT.
HOWEVER...THE MAIN PROBLEM IS THAT THERE IS A CAP OVER THE FORECAST
AREA. ADDITIONALLY...FORECAST GUIDANCE IS OVER-PREDICTING THE LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE. THIS IS HAVING ADVERSE IMPACTS ON THE FORECAST
INSTABILITY. THEREFORE...AM STRUGGLING ON IF THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON. IF THE STORMS CAN BREAK THE CAP AND SUSTAIN
THEMSELVES IN A HIGHLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT...THEN SUPERCELL
THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND A TORNADO
OR TWO WOULD BE LIKELY. AT THIS POINT HOWEVER...THERE IS LOW
CONFIDENCE ON IF STORMS WILL ACTUALLY DEVELOP. CONDITIONS NEED TO BE
MONITORED IN CASE AN UPDRAFT IS ABLE TO SUSTAIN ITSELF.

THE BETTER CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ARRIVES THIS EVENING AS A COLD
FRONT OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO SURGES SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION.
HIGH-RESOLUTION GUIDANCE HAS PICKED UP ON THIS WITH SEVERAL MEMBERS
OVER THE LAST FEW RUNS. INSTABILITY AND DOWNDRAFT CAPE BUILD UP THIS
AFTERNOON SHOULD BE WANING AS THE FRONT MOVES IN. THEREFORE...THERE
IS UNCERTAINTY ABOUT THE SEVERE POTENTIAL. A FEW STRONGER WIND GUSTS
AND SOME SMALL HAIL ARE MORE LIKELY WITH THESE STORMS THAN ANY
SEVERE WEATHER. IN ADDITION TO THE STORMS...THIS FRONT WILL BRING
MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES AND NORTHWEST WINDS OF 20-30 MPH...GUSTING
45 MPH.

FOR TOMORROW...REDUCED PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE FORECAST AS THIS
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE EJECTS NORTHEAST. A BAND OF SHOWERS IS
POSSIBLE EAST OF HIGHWAY 83 IN THE MORNING. OVERALL...PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS SHOULD BE LIGHT. ONE OTHER ITEM TO NOTE IS THAT THERE WILL
BE A LOW LEVEL JET OVER THE REGION DURING THE MORNING HOURS. AS
DAYTIME MIXING BEGINS...EXPECTING NORTHWEST WINDS TO REINTENSIFY.
EXPECTING WIND SPEEDS OF 20-30 MPH...GUSTING 45 MPH DURING THE
MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY) ISSUED AT 215 AM MDT
TUE APR 26 2016

SHORTWAVE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OUT OF THE REGION LATE THURSDAY
AND INTO FRIDAY AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES THE REGION
FRIDAY MORNING. INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE AS THE DAY PROGRESSES AND
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP ALONG THE ASSOCIATED BOUNDARY AND
FRONT. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE AT LEAST MARGINAL INSTABILITY
DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING ALONG A THETA E
BOUNDARY THAT WILL BE DRAPED FROM NORTH NORTHWEST TO SOUTH
SOUTHEAST. THIS WILL BE ANOTHER SLOW MOVING SYSTEM WITH
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ONCE MORE ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS THE H5
LOW MOVES OFF TO THE EAST NORTHEAST. LOWER POPS ARE FORECAST FOR
MONDAY AS THE SYSTEM EXITS THE REGION WITH DRY WEATHER ON TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1159 AM MDT TUE APR 26 2016

A WARM FRONT IN THE REGION WILL LEAD TO PERSISTENT MVFR AVIATION
CONDITIONS AT KMCK. STRATUS IS DISSIPATING SOUTH OF KANSAS BORDER
BUT ANTICIPATE STRATUS TO HOLD FIRM AT KMCK. IN ADDITION...TSTORM
DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON. INCLUDED VCTS MENTION HOWEVER
COVERAGE MAY BE SPARSE. VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE OBSERVED AT KGLD
THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON. THIS EVENING...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
KICKS OUT OVER THE HIGH PLAINS. EXPECT SHOWER/STORM DEVELOPMENT
ALONG A COLD FRONT OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO. STORMS CONSOLIDATE
INTO A BROKEN LINE...SPREADING SOUTHEAST AND POTENTIALLY IMPACTING
BOTH TAF SITES. AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH...WINDS SHIFT TO
NORTHWEST AND BECOME GUSTY. ALSO EXPECTING ANOTHER ROUND OF
STRATUS TO MOVE IN BEFORE SLOWLY LIFTING TOMORROW MORNING AS WINDS
PICKUP AGAIN.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RRH
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...RRH


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