Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

000
FXUS63 KGLD 262353
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
553 PM MDT SUN OCT 26 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 205 PM MDT SUN OCT 26 2014

EARLY AFTERNOON WV IMAGERY AND RAP H5 ANALYSIS SHOW RIDGE CENTERED
OVER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND TROUGH BUILDING SOUTH INTO THE
WESTERN US. SW FLOW IS IN PLACE OVR THE CENTRAL ROCKIES/NORTHERN
PLAINS WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE OVER OUR CWA. AT THE SURFACE COLD
FRONT IS MOVING OVER THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE INTO NORTHEAST COLORADO
WITH A WARM FRONT OVER EASTERN NEBRASKA. SURFACE TROUGH HAS SHIFTED
EAST WITH LIGHT NW LOW LEVEL FLOW ACROSS OUR CWA.

PRECIP TONIGHT-MONDAY...GUIDANCE SHOWING COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
TONIGHT FROM NW TO SE THROUGH SUNRISE. MAIN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
PASS ACROSS NORTHERN PLAINS MONDAY WITH BETTER FORCING OVER OUR CWA
ALONG THE SOUTHERN AXIS OF THIS TROUGH BETWEEN THE MID-MORNING TO
EARLY AFTERNOON PERIOD. LIMITING FACTOR FOR PRECIPITATION TONIGHT
AND MONDAY CONTINUES TO BE A VERY DRY AIR MASS THAT WILL HAVE TO BE
OVERCOME FOR ANY PRECIPITATION TO REACH THE GROUND. BY MIDDAY MONDAY
SOUNDINGS DO INDICATE A SATURATED LAYER WITHIN 4-8KFT AGL...HOWEVER
THERE IS STILL A DRY LAYER BELOW THIS WITH TD DEPRESSIONS 30-40F.
THERE IS SOME WEAK INSTABILITY WITHIN THIS LAYER...WHICH COULD
SUPPORT A FEW MODERATE SHOWERS...WHICH COULD REACH THE SURFACE AS
MEASURABLE RAINFALL. SEEMS LIKELY WE WILL SEE VIRGA AND MAYBE
SCATTERED SPRINKLES...AND ONLY ISOLATED 0.01-0.05" AMOUNTS OUT OF
THIS EVENT. KEPT NW TO SE TIMING FROM 06Z TONIGHT THROUGH MID
AFTERNOON MONDAY...LIMITING POPS TO 20 BASED ON LIMITED CONFIDENCE
ON MEASURABLE PRECIP.

WIND/RH THIS AFTERNOON-MONDAY...LOW SURFACE TD VALUES ALREADY
ADVECTING EAST HAVE ALLOWED RH VALUES TO DROP TO NEAR 15
PERCENT...HOWEVER WITH WINDS ALREADY BACKING OFF AND STRONGER GUSTS
(20-25KT) LIMITED TO THE FAR NW WHERE IS HIGHER RED FLAG CONDITIONS
ARE NOT ANTICIPATED TODAY. SURFACE TD WILL CONTINUE TO DROP THROUGH
THE DAY MONDAY...HOWEVER WITH COOLING AIR MASS AND HIGHS IN THE
50S/60S RH VALUES WILL NOT DROP TO NECESSARY LEVELS FOR RED FLAG
WARNING. WINDS ON THE OTHER HAND WILL INCREASE AS COLD FRONT DROPS
SOUTH...AND WITH MIXING TO AROUND 800MB WE SHOULD SEE GUSTS 30-40
MPH MONDAY MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. ADVISORY CRITERIA IS NOT
CURRENTLY EXPECTED BASED ON CURRENT GFS/NAM MIXING HEIGHTS/850-775MB
WINDS. IF WE WERE TO MIX TO 700MB MAYBE WE COULD SEE A FEW GUSTS IN
THE 45-48 MPH RANGE...HOWEVER THE WOULD BE MOST LIKELY WITH
VIRGA/LIGHT SHOWERS AND NOT A WIDESPREAD THREAT.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 205 PM MDT SUN OCT 26 2014

UPPER FLOW WILL BE NORTHWEST THROUGH WEDNESDAY.  SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS DURING THIS TIME.

SUBSIDENCE AND LACK OF MOISTURE WILL PRODUCE DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS
THE FA THROUGH WEDNESDAY. DYNAMICS FROM THE EXITING TROUGH SHOULD
BE OUTSIDE OF THE FA BY MONDAY EVENING. POPS WILL BE NIL THROUGH
THIS PART OF THE FORECAST.

FROST POTENTIAL LOOKS GOOD FOR MONDAY NIGHT WITH A HARD FREEZE
POSSIBLE OVER EASTERN COLORADO AND PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST
KANSAS...WEST OF HIGHWAY 27.  CONDITIONS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR FROST
AGAIN TUESDAY NIGHT BUT A HARD FREEZE IS NOT EXPECTED SINCE
TEMPERATURES WILL NOT BE AS COLD.  PLAN ON ISSUING A FREEZE WATCH
FOR LATE MONDAY NIGHT IN COORDINATION WITH BOU AND PUB OFFICES. SEE
DETAILS BELOW.

MIN TEMPERATURES MONDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE MID/UPPER 20S WEST
OF HIGHWAY 27 WITH LOWER TO MID 30S EAST ACROSS THE KANSAS ZONES.
MIN TEMPERATURES TUESDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE IN THE MID 30S. HIGH
TEMPERATURES TUESDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S TO THE LOWER 60S.
HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 70S ARE FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY.

IN THE EXTENDED...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)...

DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE FA THROUGH SUNDAY AS A RIDGE
BUILDS EAST FROM THE ROCKIES INTO THE PLAINS. BY SUNDAY UPPER FLOW
TURNS SOUTHWEST AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO
THE NORTH PLAINS.  SINCE MOISTURE IS TOO FAR NORTH CHANCES ARE VERY
SLIM FOR ANYTHING MEASURABLE IN THE FA. CONSEQUENTLY, POPS WILL BE
NIL SUNDAY AS THE SYSTEM MOVES EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS.

MAX TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL WARM TO THE
LOWER 70S BY SUNDAY AS 850 TEMPERATURES WARM TO AROUND 20C. MIN
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID AND UPPER 30S WILL WARM TO THE LOWER 40S BY
SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 548 PM MDT SUN OCT 26 2014

CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AT MCK AND GLD.
LIGHT WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY OUT OF THE NORTHWEST BETWEEN 12-14Z
FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT AFTER 06Z. ISOLATED
SPRINKLES TO VERY LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL MOVE FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS REGION BETWEEN 12Z-22Z...BUT
DO NOT EXPECT THEM TO BE A PREVAILING CONDITION AND HAVE LEFT THEM
OUT OF THE MCK AND GLD TAFS.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR
     KSZ001-013-027.

CO...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR
     COZ090>092.

NE...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR
     NEZ079.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...FS
AVIATION...LOCKHART



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.