Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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000
FXUS63 KGLD 112357
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
557 PM MDT FRI JUL 11 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 141 PM MDT FRI JUL 11 2014

TONIGHT...

HOT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON WITH TEMPERATURES
RANGING IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S...WITH ONLY SCATTERED MID/HIGH
CLOUDS AROUND THE AREA. WARMTH TO CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
WITH SOME INCREASING CLOUDS AS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY SLOWLY SHIFTS
EASTWARD FROM THE ROCKIES ALONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY. MAIN AFFECTED AREAS
WILL BE OVER WESTERN ZONES BASED ON TRACK OF EXPECTED STORMS...AS
LOW PRESSURE SITTING ALONG THE BOUNDARY WILL LIFT NE THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT. HIGHEST POP CHANCES WILL BE WEST...TAPERING TO NOTHING
OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN ZONES. IF ANY STORMS DO DEVELOP...LOCALIZED
DOWNPOURS COULD ENSUE WITH PW/S OVER AN INCH. BEST MODEL INSTABILITY
FROM LAPS CAPE/LI STILL FAVOR WESTERN ZONES OVERNIGHT. LOOKING FOR
OVERNIGHT LOWS TO RANGE IN THE 60S...AND WINDS 15-25 MPH W/
LOCALIZED GUSTS NEAR 30 MPH SHIFTING FROM WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT.

SATURDAY...

REMNANTS OF FRONT GOING INTO SATURDAY WILL REMAIN ALONG OR JUST
NORTH OF NORTHERN BORDER ZONES...WITH LIGHT RW/-TRW POSSIBLE. MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW COLD FRONT TO THEN SINK SE SLOWLY ACROSS THE CWA
THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY. BEST DYNAMICS SUPPORT MORE AREAL COVERAGE
OF PRECIPITATION AFTER 18Z TOWARDS 00Z SUNDAY. DAYTIME HEATING IN
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ZONES WILL AID IN FURTHER DESTABILIZING AIR MASS
BEFORE FRONT TRAVERSES AREA...ALLOWING FOR INCREASED POP COVERAGE.
STAYING CLOSE TO MODEL GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS WHICH WILL RANGE IN MID
80S TO LOWER 90S WITH HIGHEST TEMPERATURES SOUTH DUE TO LACK OF
FRONTAL CLOUD COVER.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 240 PM MDT FRI JUL 11 2014

A DEEP UPPER LOW NEAR HUDSON BAY AT BEGINNING OF PERIOD WILL
ROTATE SOUTH INTO MINNESOTA BY MONDAY MORNING AND THEN SWING EAST
THROUGH THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES BY LATE TUESDAY. THIS WILL BRING A
SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE PATTERN WITH MUCH COOLER AIR SETTLING
INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS STARTING LATE MONDAY. AT THE SURFACE...A
COLD FRONT WHICH SETTLED SLOWLY SOUTH ON SATURDAY WILL CONTINUE
DROPPING DOWN INTO OKLAHOMA BY SUNDAY MORNING. AS THE UPPER
PATTERN AMPLIFIES MONDAY...A STRONGER REINFORCING SHOT OF CANADIAN
AIR WILL ARRIVE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND DOMINATE THROUGH MID WEEK.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN THE 80S SUN-MON BUT WILL ONLY
REACH THE MIDDLE 70S TUE-WED WHICH IS AROUND 15-20 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL. A SLOW WARMUP WILL OCCUR AT THE END OF THE WEEK.

THE FIRST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE
SATURDAY NIGHT BEHIND THE WEAK COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTH AS A SHORT
WAVE TROUGH IN MID LEVELS DROPS SOUTHEAST. NOT EXPECTING ANY HEAVY
AMOUNTS THOUGH. AFTER THAT...THE NEXT FEATURE TO INCREASE PRECIP
POTENTIAL WILL BE A JET STREAK WHICH WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST FROM
WYOMING SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTORMS
FROM NORTHEAST COLORADO INTO NORTHWEST KANSAS PRODUCING LIGHT
RAINFALL AMOUNTS. FINALLY...THE MAIN COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE MONDAY
AFTERNOON PRODUCING THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON-
EVENING AND MAINLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70 IF CURRENT TIMING
UNFOLDS AS PLANNED. BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS INDICATE PRECIPITATION
CHANCES CONTINUING THROUGH MID WEEK...MAINLY IN THE WEST HALF OF
THE CWA...AS A COUPLE MID LEVEL TROUGHS MOVE OVER THE AREA. THE
BEST MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL BE WELL TO THE SOUTH DURING
THIS PERIOD HOWEVER...SO PRECIP AMOUNTS WILL BE ON THE LIGHTER SIDE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 549 PM MDT FRI JUL 11 2014

VFR CONDITIONS FORECAST FOR THE 0Z TAFS. BREEZY TO GUSTY WINDS
WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THIS EVENING. SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN AS TO
WHEN THAT WILL BEFORE KMCK SINCE GUIDANCE ALL SUGGEST WINDS SHOULD
BE FROM THE SOUTHEAST AND NOT THE SOUTH AS THEY CURRENTLY ARE.
BEST GUESS IS WHEN WINDS DECLINE THIS EVENING THEY SHOULD BE MORE
FROM THE SOUTHEAST BY THAT TIME. ONE OF THE NEAR TERM MODELS WAS
INDICATING IFR CEILINGS OVERNIGHT FOR BOTH SITES. WILL WAIT TO SEE
WHAT THE LATEST RUN OF THE MODELS SAY FOR THE NEXT SET OF TAFS
BEFORE COMMITTING. STORMS SHOULD REMAIN NORTH OF THE TAF SITES TO
NOT NEED A MENTION IN THE TAFS. KMCK WILL BE THE ONLY ONE WHICH
STORMS MAY MOVE CLOSE TO...BUT THE EAST-NORTHEAST STORM MOVEMENT
SHOULD KEEP THEM AWAY FROM THE SITE.  OTHERWISE SCATTERED STORMS
ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE
TROUGH MOVES THROUGH. CURRENTLY DO NOT HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE THEY
WILL BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO TAF SITES TO INCLUDE A MENTION IN THEM.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JN
LONG TERM...DLF
AVIATION...JTL





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