Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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000
FXUS63 KGLD 020844
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
244 AM MDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 200 PM MDT TUE SEP 1 2015

STRONG SURFACE HEATING ALONG A SURFACE BOUNDARY IN EASTERN COLORADO
HAS RESULTED IN THE FORMATION OF CUMULUS. THERE IS WEAK SUPPORT
ALOFT FROM A SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED IN THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW.
HOWEVER MOISTURE IS MEAGER/DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S/
AND STORM MOTIONS ARE SLOW. GIVEN THOSE FACTORS AND THE WEAK FORCING
WILL CARRY ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THROUGH 06Z FOR NORTHEASTERN
COLORADO AND IMMEDIATELY ADJACENT AREAS OF NORTHWEST KANSAS. STORMS
EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING BY MID/LATE
EVENING.

LITTLE CHANGES EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY AS UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER
THE GULF COAST AREA CONTINUES TO BE THE MAIN UPPER FEATURE. POSSIBLY
ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE COMING OUT OF COLORADO IN THE AFTERNOON AND
ANOTHER DAY OF STRONG SURFACE HEATING MAY BE ENOUGH FOR ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE SAME AREAS AS TODAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH
ABOVE NORMAL...WITH SOME TRIPLE DIGITS POSSIBLE IN THE USUAL HOT
SPOTS OF EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE TRI STATE AREA.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 243 AM MDT WED SEP 2 2015

NOT MUCH HAS CHANGED SINCE THE LAST MODEL RUN. THE BEGINNING OF
THE EXTENDED PERIOD MODELS STILL SHOW A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
DEVELOPING OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE COUNTRY WITH AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE LOCATED OVER THE EASTERN PORTION. AS THE RIDGE STARTS
TO WEAKEN AND MOVE TOWARDS THE EAST... THE AXIS OF THE TROUGH
CHANGES IT ORIENTATION TO BE MOVE OVER CENTRAL CANADA. THIS SETS
UP A SOUTH/SOUTHWEST UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVER THE TRI STATE AREA WITH
PERIODIC SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVING WITHIN THESE FLOW. WITH THE
ADDITION OF MOISTURE BEING ADVECTED FROM THE PACIFIC REGION...
THIS WILL PRODUCE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DURING THE FIRST PART OF THE EXTENDED.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MODELS ARE SHOWING A CLOD FRONT
MOVING THROUGH THE AREA. THE PASSAGE OF THIS FRONT WILL PRODUCE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS... WITH THE HEAVIEST AMOUNT BEING ON
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. IN ADDITION... HIGH TEMPERATURE WILL DROP
INTO THE LOWER 80S ON MONDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1114 PM MDT TUE SEP 1 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT KGLD AND KMCK FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS
AS A RIDGE CONTINUES OVER THE PLAINS. AT THIS TIME, NO
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD IMPACT EITHER SITE.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...024
LONG TERM...BW
AVIATION...FS


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