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000
FXUS63 KGLD 271905
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1205 PM MST TUE JAN 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1205 PM MST TUE JAN 27 2015

HAVE ISSUED AN UPDATE TO INCREASE TEMPS FOR THE WESTERN HALF OF
THE CWA. AS OF MIDDAY...MANY LOCALES IN WESTERN ZONES WELL INTO
THE 70S WITH A FEW SPOTS L80S ALREADY. EASTERN AREAS STILL IN THE
60S TO L70S AS THESE AREAS NOT FEELING FULL EFFECTS OF DOWNSLOPE
WINDS OFF THE FRONT RANGE/ROCKIES.

OLD RECORDS FOR THE CWA:

GOODLAND..........73F/1970
MCCOOK NE.........69F/2003
BURLINGTON CO.....79F/1951
HILL CITY.........77F/2002
COLBY.............77F/2002
TRIBUNE...........74F/1982
YUMA CO...........74F/1970

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 227 AM MST TUE JAN 27 2015

SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL RESULT IN DRY CONDITIONS AND RECORD OR NEAR
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY IN THE MID AND UPPER 70S...A FEW
LOCATIONS COULD REACH 80. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL DROP TO
THE 15 TO 20 PERCENT RANGE BUT WINDS WILL BE JUST LIGHT ENOUGH SO
THAT RED FLAG CRITERIA IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE REACHED...AT LEAST
FOR THE MINIMUM 3 HOUR REQUIREMENT. HOWEVER...WILL MENTION
ELEVATED FIRE DANGER IN THE HWO ONCE AGAIN. SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL
DROP OUT OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND CROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. IT WILL BRING SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES...HIGHS IN THE 60S...AND BREEZY TO WINDY NORTHWEST
WINDS. NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED DUE TO LACK OF LOW OR MID
LEVEL MOISTURE. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL DOWN FURTHER ON THURSDAY
WITH NORTHEASTERLY WINDS AT THE SURFACE RESULTING IN HIGHS IN THE
40S. MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BE INCREASING OUT OF THE
SOUTHWEST BUT PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE LIMITED TO SOUTHERN
COLORADO AHEAD OF UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS MOVING INTO THE
FOUR CORNERS REGION.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1220 AM MST TUE JAN 27 2015

FRIDAY...CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS MOVES IN DURING THE DAY AND
REMAINS OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS DURING THE NIGHT AHEAD
OF A LOW PRESSURE CENTER AND ASSOCIATED TROUGH CENTERED OVER
SOUTHWEST ARIZONA. SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR LIGHT PRECIPITATION
REMAINS PRIMARILY ACROSS GREELEY AND WICHITA COUNTIES DURING THE
DAY WITH INCREASING CHANCES SPREADING NORTH DURING THE NIGHT.
PRECIP EXPECTED TO START AS LIGHT RAIN IN THE EVENING THEN CHANGE
OVER TO SNOW BY OR SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN
THE MID 40S WITH LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S. WINDS DURING THE
TIME OF EXPECTED SNOW GENERALLY FROM THE SOUTH AROUND 10 MPH.

SATURDAY...PLENTY OF CLOUDINESS TO CONTINUE PER 850-500MB RH DURING
THE DAY AS SOME OF THE ENERGY FROM FRIDAYS UPPER LOW LIFT NORTHEAST
ACROSS OUR PART OF THE AREA.  DURING THE NIGHT PERHAPS A BIT OF
DECREASING CLOUDINESS BUT ECMWF/GFS DISAGREE ON HOW FAST UPPER
TROUGH MOVES IN FROM THE NORTHWEST BRINGING PERHAPS SOME DRIER AIR
BEHIND IT. WINDS EXPECTED TO SHIFT AROUND TO THE NORTHEAST BY THE
END OF THE DAY AS COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. COLDER AIR ARRIVES
OVERNIGHT AS WINDS BECOME NORTHERLY. HIGH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN
THE MID 30S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOW 20S. GOOD
CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION DURING THE DAY WITH DECREASING
CHANCES (PERHAPS) FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST IF THE DRIER AIR MOVES
IN.

SUNDAY...HIGHER CONFIDENCE (FOR THIS MODEL CYCLE) THAT CLOUDS WILL
DECREASE LEAVING A MOSTLY TO PARTLY SUNNY SKY DURING THE DAY AND
PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT. NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED.
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL WITH MID 30S (EAST) TO AROUND 40
(WEST). OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW TEENS (EAST) TO NEAR 20 (WEST).

MONDAY...SOME AGREEMENT THAT THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE UNDER FAST
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND WITH THAT PERHAPS MORE MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
(PER MODEL RH FORECASTS) THEN CURRENTLY ADVERTISED. SHOULD BE DRY
WITH HIGHS LOW TO MID 30S EAST AND LOW TO MID 40S GENERALLY ALONG
AND WEST OF THE CO/KS BORDER. LOWS IN THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1034 AM MST TUE JAN 27 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR BOTH TAF SITES WITH SKC GIVING WAY TO
SCT100-250 BY 12Z WEDNESDAY. WSW WINDS 5-15KTS THRU 12Z
WEDNESDAY...BECOMING WNW FOR KMCK 10-20KTS...AND NNW FOR KGLD
15-30KTS...WITH HIGHER CONDITIONS BY MIDDAY.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JN
SHORT TERM...024
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...JN