Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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000
FXUS63 KGLD 280002
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
602 PM MDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 301 PM MDT WED MAY 27 2015

NOT A LOT OF TIME TO WRITE DUE TO ONGOING SEVERE WEATHER. MODELS
HAVING A HARD TIME WITH THE CONVECTION. RUC WOULD LOOK TO HAVE THE
RIGHT IDEA WITH THE MAIN CLUSTER OF CONVECTION OVER THE SOUTHEAST
PORTION OF THE AREA. TWO DIFFERENT AREAS OF SURFACE
CONVERGENCE...ONE RUNNING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ACROSS THE CENTER OF
THE AREA AND ANOTHER AREA APPROACHING THE NORTHWEST CORNER. WEAK
SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHOULD TRANSITIONING ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE
EVENING. SO STORMS LOOK TO GRADUALLY END FROM WEST TO EAST DURING
THE NIGHT.

INDICATIONS ARE THAT WILL DEFINITELY HAVE STRATUS MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA BEHIND THE RAIN WITH SOME PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE. HAVE THIS LAST
THROUGH MID MORNING. BY THE MIDDLE OF THE DAY...SURFACE BOUNDARY
SETS UP JUST EAST OF THE KANSAS AND COLORADO BORDER. MID AND UPPER
LEVEL LIFT LOOKS TO BE STRONGER THAN TODAY SO AGAIN LOOK TO HAVE
ANOTHER GOOD CHANCE OF STORMS...SOME SEVERE...IN THE AFTERNOON.

DUE TO LACK OF TIME DID NOT CHANGE THE TEMPERATURES THROUGH
TOMORROW TOO MUCH. IT DOES LOOK WARMER TOMORROW.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 301 PM MDT WED MAY 27 2015

AGAIN NOT A LOT OF TIME DUE TO ONGOING SEVERE WEATHER. HIGH CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS TO OCCUR THURSDAY NIGHT DUE TO RATHER STRONG
UPPER TROUGH MOVING THROUGH. SAME TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO BRING
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TO THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. RIDGING AND
DRY CONDITIONS LOOK TO BE IN STORE FROM SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS LOOK TO BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY NIGHT.

FROM TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...FLOW BECOME MORE SOUTHWEST WITH A
BETTER CHANCE OF STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGHS TO MOVE THROUGH. SO
THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE A LITTLE BETTER DURING THIS
PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WERE NOT CHANGED FROM WHAT THE CRH_INIT
PRODUCED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 552 PM MDT WED MAY 27 2015

MODELS HAVING TROUBLE RESOLVING DETAILS WITH ONGOING THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY
DUE TO MESOSCALE PROCESSES GOVERNING THE EVOLUTION OF THE
PRECIPITATION. MOST MODEL OUTPUT WOULD SAY THAT KGLD SHOULD BE
GETTING WET RIGHT NOW. HOWEVER CURRENT RADAR AND OBSERVATION
TRENDS SUPPORT KGLD STAYING DRY WITH THUNDERSTORMS REMAINING JUST
TO THE NORTH. SO KEPT VICINITY THUNDERSTORMS AT KGLD THROUGH THE
EVENING. BEGINNING LATE IN THE EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS...STRATUS AND SOME FOG CREATING MVFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR
INTO THE MID MORNING HOURS ON THURSDAY.

KMCK HAS THE BETTER CHANCE OF SEEING THUNDERSTORMS. LARGE CLUSTER
OF STORMS IS NOT TOO FAR AWAY. THESE STORMS HAVE A HISTORY OF
PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL. AT THIS TIME MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE
POSSIBLE UNTIL NEAR 06Z. AFTER THE THUNDERSTORMS END...MVFR
CONDITIONS IN FOG AND STRATUS WILL OCCUR INTO TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM...BULLER
AVIATION...BULLER


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