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000
FXUS63 KGLD 140604
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
1204 AM MDT Sat Oct 14 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 1246 PM MDT Fri Oct 13 2017

18z water vapor imagery indicated cwa under fast WSW flow between
trough over the PAC NW and southern plains ridge. At the sfc, cold
front was well to the south of the area and was located roughly along
a KCNC to KPTT line with high pressure building into the area. A
large area of stratus was observed immediately behind the front
which was slowly eroding across the forecast area.

Main near term concerns will be fog and precip potential tonight,
followed by magnitude of the winds tomorrow.

For tonight, warm air advection will increase as lee trough and
low level jet intensify through the evening. This increase in
winds will begin to advect higher mixing ratios into the area
above the frontal zone. While several models breaking out light
precipitation, sounding profiles appear to suggest very shallow
moisture profile similar to light drizzle as opposed to any deep
precipitation processes. There is a small threat for storms after
midnight however across southeastern CWA. Vertical profiles
suggest destabilization will occur through the night with around
1000 j/kg of elevated cape by 9z. This looks to remain somewhat
capped, but with persistent forcing and nearby frontal zone
providing more focused ascent, think there is a small chance for
storm development.

Other concern that will likely have a large impact on sensible is
potential for fog development tonight. Short term rapid update
models continue to suggest moisture profile will become more and
more favorable for fog development overnight as moisture content
increases. With todays cloud cover limiting temps, some portions
of CWA will be preconditioned for fog development. Best chances
are along the KS-CO border and would not be surprised to see
dense fog developing, but confidence not high enough for any
advisories.

On Saturday, cold front will quickly advance across the area
during the afternoon hours. Still a fair amount of disagreement
with magnitude of winds behind the front and how deeply mixed the
atmosphere will be. GFS looks quite windy and with dewpoints
bottoming out could create a quick period of critical fire
weather conditions. However, this seems to be the outlier at this
point and a period of wind gusts to around 45 mph the most likely
scenario. Regardless of the post front humidity, strong winds will
make an enhanced fire threat given current state of fuels.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday)
Issued at 129 PM MDT Fri Oct 13 2017

Winds remain elevated as we head into Saturday evening, tapering off
after sunset. CAA will prevail through the evening and overnight,
into Sunday morning. This has prompted a freeze watch for far
northwestern Kansas Sunday morning, when temperatures will range
from 30 to 32 degrees. Below average highs are in store as we will
only see lower to middle 60s on Sunday.

Northwest flow aloft will prevail Sunday through Wednesday as we
will be on the downstream side of an H5 ridge situated with an axis
in the southwestern US. This ridge will flatten and move east on
Wednesday as a trough approaches the Pacific Northwest, moving
onshore as we head into Thursday. Precipitation chances will be
nil from Sunday through Thursday.

Precipitation chances return to the region on Friday as a deep H5
trough pushes across the Intermountain West and into the Rockies;
however, there is some uncertainty with regards to the speed and
strength of the system.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night)
Issued at 1124 PM MDT Fri Oct 13 2017

Low clouds are spreading back across the central high plains
region tonight in the upslope return flow around the high pressure
area over the plains as a near surface layer of higher moisture
is saturating as temperatures drop. This high pressure area and
associated low clouds will move out of the area during the day on
Saturday as a cold front pushes across the region. The front is
expected to move through the area by early afternoon with gusty
northwest winds to follow through the remainder of the afternoon
and evening.

GLD will bounce between VLIFR and LIFR due to low clouds and
visibilities as the 06Z TAF starts out with light east southeast
winds that turn more southerly towards sunrise. Conditions will
quickly improve to VFR after 14Z when winds begin to shift to the
west ahead of the front. After 18Z, gusty northwest winds will be
in place and are expected to remain through the end of the TAF
period.

MCK will start out MVFR with conditions becoming LIFR after 09Z
due to low ceilings, which will become IFR after about 15Z as
winds turn westerly. VFR conditions are expected by about 17Z with
gusty northwest winds developing and continuing through the
remainder of the TAF period.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...Freeze Watch from late Saturday night through Sunday morning for
     KSZ001-002-013-014-027-028-041-042.

CO...NONE.
NE...Freeze Watch from late Saturday night through Sunday morning for
     NEZ079-080.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JRM
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...LOCKHART