Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 200928
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
228 AM MST SAT DEC 20 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 812 PM MST FRI DEC 19 2014

UPDATE ISSUED TO ADD IN PATCHY FREEZING FOG ACROSS FAR
NORTHERN/EASTERN ZONE PERIPHERIES. LATEST OBS ACROSS SW NEBRASKA
AND NW KANSAS JUST OUTSIDE THE FORECAST AREA ARE SHOWING
PATCHY/AREAS OF FOG. MOST IS FORMING IN AREAS OF LIGHT WIND AWAY
FROM THE DOWNSLOPE EFFECTS OF THE ROCKIES/FRONT RANGE...AND ALSO
NEAR THE BACK EDGE OF THE REMNANTS OF THE LOW LEVEL CLOUD DECK TO
OUR EAST. HAVE CARRIED THRU 12Z SATURDAY...WITH NO OTHER CHANGES
TO FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1254 PM MST FRI DEC 19 2014

NORTHWEST FLOW TONIGHT WILL TRANSITION TO ZONAL FLOW ON SATURDAY.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT EAST TONIGHT WITH A TROUGH MOVING
INTO EASTERN COLORADO SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

SUBSIDENCE WILL KEEP DRY WEATHER ONGOING TONIGHT AND SATURDAY ACROSS
THE FA. THE ONLY WEATHER CONCERN SHOULD BE THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME
PATCHY FOG IN THE FAR EASTERN FA.  THE NAM LOWERS BOUNDARY LAYER RH
TONIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY BELOW 60 PERCENT RH AS DRIER DEWPOINTS
ADVECT ACROSS THE FA WITH LIGHT DOWNSLOPE SURFACE WINDS. DUE TO THIS
DRYING TREND DO NOT PLAN TO INSERT PATCHY FOG IN THE EAST.

THE SNOW FIELD CONTINUES TO AFFECT TEMPERATURES WITH READINGS IN THE
UPPER TEENS IN THE NORTH AND WEST AND LOWER 20S ELSEWHERE.  MAX
TEMPERATURES SATURDAY SHOULD REACH THE LOWER 40S NORTHWEST TO THE
LOW 50S ELSEWHERE.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 228 AM MST SAT DEC 20 2014

THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL START UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A HIGH
AMPLITUDE TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WITH A BUILDING RIDGE TO
THE WEST ALONG THE COLORADO FRONT RANGE. ALTHOUGH MODEL FORECASTS
HAVE SLIGHT DIFFERENCES IN POSITION OF THE TROUGH...GENERAL
AGREEMENT IS THAT 500 MB TROUGH AXIS WILL BE THROUGH THE AREA AND
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE DRY WEATHER TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY.

THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARDS TO THE POTENTIAL WEATHER
SYSTEM THAT WILL APPROACH THE REGION FOR THE CHRISTMAS DAY TIME
FRAME.  AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND BRING MOISTURE ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. TIMING GENERALLY APPEARS LIKE THURSDAY EVENING WILL
BE THE ARRIVAL TIME OF A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT...HOWEVER UPPER LEVEL PROGRESSION IS STILL UNCERTAIN.
THE ECMWF DEPICTS A DEEPER WAVE THAN COMPARED TO THE GFS AND
CANADIAN FORECASTS.  DECIDED TO ALIGN THE FORECAST MORE WITH WHAT
THE GFS IS DEPICTING DUE TO AGREEMENT WITH THE CANADIAN
GUIDANCE...AS WELL AS MEX GUIDANCE HAVING A BETTER TREND FOR THE
WEATHER ON THURSDAY IN PREVIOUS CYCLES COMPARED TO THE ECE GUIDANCE.
PRECIPITATION TYPE WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE RAIN/SNOW MIXES TURNING
TO SNOW ONCE THE FRONT PASSES WITH COLD AIR ADVECTING AT THE
SURFACE.

ALTHOUGH THE ECMWF APPEARS TO BE THE OUTLIER AT THIS POINT...IT
PREDICTS A FAIRLY STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT THAT DEVELOPS ACROSS THE
HIGH PLAINS THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING.  THIS COULD
BRING POTENTIALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS AND BLOWING SNOW...HOWEVER UNTIL
THERE IS FURTHER AGREEMENT IN OTHER MODELS...THERE SHOULD BE A
RELATIVELY MILD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

ONCE THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT PASSES THROUGH THE AREA...AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST TO PROVIDE DRY WEATHER
CONDITIONS FRIDAY WITH COLDER CONDITIONS. FRIDAY HIGHS WILL REACH
THE MID TO UPPER 30S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1033 PM MST FRI DEC 19 2014

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR BOTH TAF SITES. SCT200 WILL
GIVE WAY TO SCT050 SCT150 BY 00Z SUNDAY. KMCK MAY SEE FOG DOWN TO
4SM AT TIMES BETWEEN 06Z-09Z SATURDAY. WINDS WILL MEANDER THRU
FORECAST PERIOD FROM WSW TO WNW AT 5-10KTS.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JN
SHORT TERM...FS
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...JN


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