Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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000
FXUS63 KGLD 181953
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
153 PM MDT Wed Oct 18 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 155 PM MDT Wed Oct 18 2017

Overview: 1019 mb high pressure (centered over southwest
SD/northwest NE at 19Z) will build southward into the Tri-State
region this afternoon through tonight. The leading edge of the sfc
ridge, a weak backdoor cold front (invof I-70 at 19Z), is
characterized by a wind shift to the north and a ~20F drop in
dewpoints (from the mid 30s to the upper teens). A dry southerly
return flow will develop over the High Plains Thu afternoon as a
shortwave progresses eastward from southern CA to the 4-corners
region.

Through Tonight: Expect 0 chance for precipitation through
tonight with ridging aloft and an extremely dry airmass
characterized by dewpoint depressions on the order of 60-65F this
afternoon. Northerly winds at 10 to 20 mph will decrease to 10 mph
or less by late afternoon and become light/variable or calm
overnight. Expect lows ranging from the upper 30s to mid 40s.

Thursday: Dewpoints are expected to rise into the 40s as southerly
return flow strengthens during the day, becoming sustained at
15-25 mph with gusts to 30-35 mph by mid/late afternoon. Expect
highs similar to previous days, in the upper 70s to lower 80s.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday Night through Tuesday)
Issued at 115 PM MDT Wed Oct 18 2017

Dry conditions are expected during the entire extended period. The
region will see southwest upper level flow over the region from
Thursday night into Saturday morning before a trough will sweep
across the area on Saturday. Northwest flow will then dominate over
the region for the remainder of the period.

There are a few cold fronts that are expected to move over the
region during the period. One will be late Friday night into
Saturday morning. This front will drop temperatures on Saturday and
bring windy conditions (with the slight possibility of light rain
showers early Saturday morning). The next cold front will be Monday
afternoon. This front will also decrease temperatures on Tuesday and
increase winds slightly.

Temperatures are expected to be in the 70s and 80s on Friday, then a
drop on Saturday into the mid 50s to mid 60s. Sunday and Monday will
generally be in the 60s and 70s. Tuesday will be in the low to mid
60s. Then a slight increase into the upper 60s on Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
Issued at 1030 AM MDT Wed Oct 18 2017

VFR conditions will rule through the TAF period in association
with a very dry airmass in place across the Tri-State region.
W/WNW winds at 5-10 knots will shift to the north and increase to
15 knots with gusts to 20-22 knots for a 2-3 hour period early
this afternoon as high pressure builds into the area from the
north. Winds will shift to the northeast and weaken to ~10 knots
or less by 21Z. Winds will become light/variable by ~00Z and
will remain light/variable through the rest of the TAF period.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...VINCENT
LONG TERM...CLT
AVIATION...VINCENT


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