Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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000
FXUS63 KGLD 272246
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
446 PM MDT SAT JUN 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 100 PM MDT SAT JUN 27 2015

LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS THIS EVENING VEER TO THE SOUTHWEST
BY SUNRISE SUNDAY MORNING AHEAD OF A WIND SHIFT THAT MOVES THROUGH
DURING THE LATE MORNING THROUGH AFTERNOON HOURS. AS THE WIND SHIFT
MOVES THROUGH NORTHWEST WINDS BECOMING NORTHERLY AT SPEEDS AROUND
10 MPH OR SO. CANT REALLY CALL IT A COLD FRONT AS 850MB
TEMPERATURES PER NAM/GFS/UKMET INCREASE ANYWHERE FROM 3F-7F
COMPARED TO TODAYS VALUES. THIS ALONG WITH AVERAGING HIGHER
PERFORMING BIAS CORRECTED GRIDS ALONG WITH MET/MAV AND 2M GFS/NAM
TEMPERATURES SUPPORTS HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 80S TO AROUND
90 IN FAR EASTERN COLORADO WITH 90-95 EAST OF THE STATE LINE. LOW
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT IN THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S. NO PRECIPITATION
IS EXPECTED.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 208 PM MDT SAT JUN 27 2015

THE HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE THE MAIN FORECAST
FEATURE THAT WILL AFFECT THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD SUNDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY.  WITH STRONG UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE WITH THE
RIDGE...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND DRY WEATHER WILL TAKE PLACE DURING
THIS TIME.  HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 90S AS A
RESULT...WITH THE HIGHEST TEMPERATURES TUESDAY REACHING THE MID TO
UPPER 90S.

MODEL FORECASTS DISAGREE SLIGHTLY TO THE PROGRESSION AND TIMING OF
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.  HOWEVER...THE CONSENSUS
IS THAT A SMALL SHORTWAVE RIDGE MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
WILL ROUND THE TOP OF THE RIDGE AND BEGIN TO LESSEN THE AMPLITUDE
AND STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE SOMETIME TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
WITH THE BREAK DOWN OF THE RIDGE...A HIGHER AREA OF JET SPEEDS WILL
MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS.  AS A RESULT...A SERIES OF MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS AND SURFACE COOL FRONTS WILL PUSH THROUGH THE HIGH
PLAINS.  THE FIRST FRONT WILL SLIDE THROUGH THE HIGH PLAINS
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...WHICH WILL BRING SOME CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.  A SECOND FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PUSH THROUGH SOMETIME
THURSDAY EVENING WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
OVERNIGHT THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 443 PM MDT SAT JUN 27 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. DUE THE PASSAGE OF
A COUPLE DIFFERENT SURFACE BOUNDARIES...THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AS
THEY SHIFT FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST TO WEST
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...AND THEN FINALLY TO NORTHWEST TO NORTH
DURING THE 12Z TO 18Z TIME PERIOD.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...BULLER


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