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000
FXUS63 KGLD 192134
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
234 PM MST THU DEC 19 2013

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 127 PM MST THU DEC 19 2013

A COLD FRONT MOVED THROUGH THE REGION EARLIER TODAY WHICH WILL BE
FOLLOWED BY AN UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR MASS TONIGHT. THIS ROLLER COASTER
TEMPERATURE TREND FROM HIGHS IN THE 70S YESTERDAY TO LOWS NEAR THE
SINGLE DIGITS TONIGHT MAY BE ACCOMPANIED BY A FEW FLURRIES IN
EASTERN COLORADO THIS EVENING...BUT OTHERWISE DRY AND COOLER CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE END WORK WEEK.

TODAY...A TRICKY TEMP FORECAST DURING A TRANSITION IN AIR MASSES. TO
PUT THE CHANGE IN PERSPECTIVE...YESTERDAY 850MB TEMP ANOMALIES WERE
14-18 DEG C ABOVE NORMAL...DROPPING TO 12-16 DEG C BELOW NORMAL
TONIGHT...A DIFFERENCE OF ABOUT 55 DEG FAHRENHEIT OVER 36 HOURS.
/AND RESULTING IN A SURFACE TEMP CHANGE OF ABOUT 60 DEG F OVER THE
SAME TIME PERIOD./ INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS FROM THE SOUTHWEST TODAY
COMPLICATES THE HIGH TEMP FORECAST...BUT IT APPEARED MOST LOCATIONS
WILL REACH INTO THE 40S. STRATUS DECK OVER THE LBF CWA IS GRADUALLY
WORKING ITS WAY SOUTH...REACHING THE NORTHERN EDGES OF THE GLD CWA
BY LATE AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...WHILE THE SURFACE FRONT MOVED ACROSS THE AREA EARLIER
TODAY MUCH COLDER MID-LEVEL AIR WILL ARRIVE LATE TODAY INTO TONIGHT.
SURFACE WINDS WILL INCREASE AS THIS SECONDARY COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH TONIGHT...AND ADDITIONAL LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
GIVE WAY TO OVERCAST LOW CEILINGS FOR A TIME THIS EVENING INTO
TONIGHT. WITH SUCH A COLD AIR MASS AND NEARLY SATURATED LOW LEVELS
WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME FLURRIES ANYWHERE ALONG THE FRONT
THIS EVENING...ESPECIALLY IN EASTERN COLORADO WHERE THERE WILL BE
SOME HIGHER OMEGA VALUES. ANY FLURRIES WOULD NOT BE EXPECTED TO
ACCUMULATE...AND THE WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY WILL BE SMELL THAT CHANCE
ARE NIL BY FRIDAY MORNING. TEMPS WILL PLUMMET TO NEAR SINGLE DIGITS.

FRIDAY...QUIET PATTERN LOCALLY AS AN UPPER LOW DEEPENS ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST. TEMPS WILL BE COOLER THAN NORMAL...STRUGGLING TO REACH 30
IN MOST SPOTS. LOW CLOUDS FROM OVERNIGHT WILL DISSIPATE AS HIGH
CLOUDS INCREASE...THUS RESULTING IN MOSTLY TO PARTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 232 PM MST THU DEC 19 2013

UPPER FLOW WILL BE SOUTHWEST FRIDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF A TROUGH MOVING
EAST FROM SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA.  THIS TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS SATURDAY.  THE TROUGH WILL MOVE NORTHEAST SATURDAY
NIGHT TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES REGION.  NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE ACROSS
THE CENTRAL PLAINS SUNDAY.  A SURFACE TROUGH WILL BE OVER EASTERN
COLORADO FRIDAY NIGHT. AS THE SURFACE LOW MOVES INTO NORTHERN TEXAS
SATURDAY, A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS.  HIGH
PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY.

DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING AS SUBSIDENCE
CONTINUES ACROSS THE AREA. BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING SOME WEAK DYNAMICS
APPROACH THE SOUTHEAST PERIMETER OF THE FA AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES
INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. HOWEVER MOISTURE IS MARGINAL AT BEST AND
SUBSIDENCE IS STILL INDICATED OVER THE FA. FOR NOW WILL CONTINUE
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THAT AREA FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
DYNAMICS MOVE FURTHER EAST AFTER 06Z SUNDAY SO WILL KEEP POPS NIL
FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.  SUBSIDENCE CONTINUES SUNDAY WITH DRY
CONDITIONS AND NIL POPS.

MIN TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE
TEENS. MAX TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE MID 30S TO LOWER 30S SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY.

IN THE EXTENDED...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...

UPPER FLOW WILL BE NORTHWEST THROUGH THIS PART OF THE FORECAST. A
COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FLOW SUNDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY MORNING. THERE IS ENOUGH MOISTURE IN THE FLOW TO
PRODUCE SOME LIGHT SNOW SO WILL GO AHEAD AND INCLUDE SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS FOR THOSE PERIODS. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND
THE SHORTWAVES WITH DRY CONDITIONS FOR REMAINING PERIODS.

MAX TEMPERATURES WILL FLUCTUATE BETWEEN 30S ON MONDAY TO 40S TO 50
TUESDAY AND BACK TO THE 30S WEDNESDAY. MIN TEMPERATURES WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE TEENS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF LOWER 20S TUESDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1026 AM MST THU DEC 19 2013

VFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT GLD AND MCK THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH BOTH TERMINALS LATE
THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING RESULTING IN LOWER CEILINGS AND BRIEF
PERIOD OF GUSTY WINDS. TIMING WILL BE SHORTLY AFTER 00Z FOR MVFR
CEILINGS...WITH LOWEST CEILINGS AROUND 02-04Z AT MCK AND 04-06Z AT
GLD. A FEW FLURRIES ARE POSSIBLE AS WELL...BUT THIS SECONDARY FRONT
LOOKS TO BE GENERALLY PRECIP-FREE. THROUGHOUT THE REST OF THE NIGHT
AND INTO FRIDAY SKIES WILL BE CLOUDY BUT VFR...AND WINDS WILL
DECREASE.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JJM
LONG TERM...FS
AVIATION...JJM