Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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000
FXUS63 KGLD 030448
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1048 PM MDT MON MAY 2 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1045 PM MDT MON MAY 2 2016

UPDATED FORECAST FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS BASED ON RADAR TRENDS AND
MODEL DATA. DESPITE REFLECTIVITY WEAKENING AS THE WAVE OF RAINFALL
APPROACHES THE AREA...OBSERVATION SITES SHOW RAIN IS REACHING THE
GROUND. ANTICIPATE THE LIGHT RAINFALL TO MOVE ACROSS MAINLY THE
NORTHEAST QUADRANT OF THE AREA DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. TOWARD
SUNRISE ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL WEAKEN CAUSING THE RAINFALL TO END
AS IT MOVES EAST OF THE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 858 PM MDT MON MAY 2 2016

SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THRU THE CWA OVERNIGHT...EXITING MOST OF THE
AREA BY 12Z TUESDAY. LOOKING FOR INCREASING CLOUDS AHEAD LIGHT
PRECIP THAT WILL FORM AFTER 00Z TONIGHT. BASED ON CURRENT RADAR
RETURNS ON THE WESTERN HALF OF PRECIP SHIELD...AND MODEL TIMING
FOR ARRIVAL INTO THE AREA WILL ONLY GO WITH LOW CHANCE POPS AT
BEST FOR NORTHERN AREAS AT BEST AND TAPER OFF TO A SLIGHT CHANCE
ELSEWHERE.

BASED ON MODEL GUIDANCE FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS...EXPECTING MAINLY LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS AS MAIN P-TYPE. FAR WESTERN PORTIONS OF OUR NE COLORADO
ZONES HOWEVER COULD SEE A BRIEF MIX OF -SW/-RW WITH LITTLE TO NO
ACCUM...AS TEMPS COULD DROP NEAR 34F UNTIL ENOUGH CLOUD COVER FROM
ARRIVING SYSTEM STOPS RADIATIONAL COOLING EFFECTS THERE. OVERALL QPF
NUMBERS WILL STAY BELOW 0.10" W/ HIGHEST NUMBERS IN SW NEBRASKA.

FOR TUESDAY...CLEARING ENSUES FROM NORTH TO SOUTH DURING THE MORNING
HOURS AS SHORTWAVE CLEARS THE REGION...ALLOWING FOR HIGH PRESSURE TO
BUILD OVER THE AREA. BUILDING H5 RIDGE WILL SET UP NW DOWNSLOPE FLOW
OVER THE AREA THRU THE DAY ALLOWING FOR DAYTIME HIGHS TO REACH THE
65-70F RANGE...OFF OF OVERNIGHT LOWS FROM 34-41F...WARMEST TONIGHT
IN OUR EASTERN ZONES FROM HILL CITY TO OBERLIN.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 216 PM MDT MON MAY 2 2016

FOR THIS EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD...MUCH WARMER WEATHER CAN BE
ANTICIPATED THROUGH AT LEAST THE WEEKEND. THIS IS DUE TO A A HIGHLY
AMPLIFIED HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE THAT DEVELOPS OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS
BY MID-WEEK. WITH THE RIDGE SPREAD ACROSS THE PLAINS FROM WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY...NO PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD CONTINUE TO WARM...REACHING THE LOW TO MID 80S BY FRIDAY.
SOME GUIDANCE MEMBERS SUGGEST EVEN WARMER WEATHER IS POSSIBLE.

BY THE WEEKEND...AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN RESUMES ONCE AGAIN AS AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW ENCROACHES FROM THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. MOST GUIDANCE
DOES NOT MOVE THE LOW ALONG. RATHER...INDICATIONS SUGGEST THE LOW
STALLS OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WITH SHORTWAVE TROUGHS EJECTING
AHEAD OF THE LOW OVER THE PLAINS. THIS PATTERN FAVORS THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT EACH AFTERNOON/EVENING. AS WITH ANY EXTENDED FORECAST...
SURFACE FEATURE FORECASTS PINPOINTING WHERE STORMS DEVELOP ARE QUITE
PROBLEMATIC. FAVORABLE INSTABILITY AND WIND SHEAR INDICATE SEVERE
WEATHER WILL BE POSSIBLE. HOWEVER...MOISTURE RETURN MAY BE AN ISSUE
AS SUGGESTED BY THE SPC DAYS 4-7 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK. THIS MAY
SUPPRESS A TORNADO THREAT BUT LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WOULD BE
LIKELY WITH STORMS THAT DEVELOP. WILL INCLUDE A BRIEF MENTION IN THE
HWO FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THERE IS ONE ITEM THAT COULD BUST
SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL...A COLD FRONT SPREADING IN FROM THE NORTH.
GUIDANCE VARIES WILDLY ON THE POSITION OF THIS COLD FRONT (IN
ADDITION TO THE DRYLINE). IF FRONT ADVANCEMENT IS FASTER...PORTIONS
OF THE TRI-STATE REGION WOULD MORE LIKELY OBSERVE SHOWERS AND COOLER
WEATHER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 520 PM MDT MON MAY 2 2016

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD
WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF MVFR DURING PERIODS OF SHOWERS FOR BOTH
LOCATIONS. WINDS WILL BE WNW AT 6 TO 10KT AT BOTH LOCATIONS
THROUGH AROUND 12Z BEFORE BECOMING NNW AFTER 12Z AT 10 TO 12KT.
KGLD COULD SEE GUSTS OF NEAR 20KT.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JTL
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...RRH
AVIATION...TL



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