Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 160938

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
238 AM MST Sat Dec 16 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 238 AM MST Sat Dec 16 2017

Across the Tri State region this morning...much of the CWA is under
a clear sky with only NW portions of the area starting to see the
leading edge of a low/mid cloud mix. This line is associated with a
frontal boundary set to traverse the region late today into tonight.
Temperatures are currently ranging from the mid 20s up to the mid
30s...with a light WSW surface wind.

Going into today...the region will see a slow increase in cloud
cover as the cold front trudges slowly southeastward. This will work
out ahead of a digging upper trough thru the Rockies that sets up
over the Plains region thru the weekend into next Monday. It will be
the set up of the front over the region that will be the main wx
concern during the first 72 hours of the forecast. Models carry the
surface over western KS...with much of the CWA on the north side of
the boundary later tonight into 12z Sunday. Abundant low level
moisture is present and will provide some patchy freezing
drizzle/fog to set up over the area...especially after 06z Sunday.

Lack of any major push/progression from the upper trough going into
Sunday is going to allow clouds to well as the chances
for patchy freezing fog/drizzle to linger thru at least 16z Sunday
when area temps start to go above freezing. Light glazing of ice is
possible on exposed surfaces during this time. Travel could be
impacted thru midday Sunday.

Surface ridging from the Rockies slowly nudges into the area late
Sunday on thru Monday night...providing dry conditions.

For temps...low to mid 50s at best for the area...but will be capped
thru the day due to increasing clouds from the NW. CAA behind the
expected front will give daytime highs Sunday in a range from the
upper 30s to low 40s. With the return of high pressure Monday...low
to mid 50s. Overnight lows will range from the upper teens into the
mid and upper 20s...coldest Sunday night into Monday due to clearing

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Friday)
Issued at 230 AM MST Sat Dec 16 2017

A much colder and active pattern will emerge Tuesday through
Saturday. The influence of an H5 ridge will prevail on Tuesday and
Wednesday before a strong low pushes a trough south and
southwestward into the High Plains.

A strong cold front will dive southward into the region late
Wednesday night and into Thursday morning. A relatively intense
theta-e gradient will provide a focus for precipitation along and
following the front. Light to moderate snow is in the forecast on
Thursday as this boundary makes it`s way across the CWA from
northwest to southeast. Moisture will be adequate but not overly
abundant as PW values will be in the 0.15" to 0.30" range. Still a
bit early to forecast snowfall totals with confidence, but early
estimates range from 0.5" to 2.5" from south to north. There is good
agreement between the global models at this time that has been
reasonably consistent for several days now. Currently, daytime high
temperatures are forecast to reach the upper 20s to lower 30s on
Thursday; however, the 850mb temps are in the -14C to -11C range,
which has been consistent across several model runs. We may need to
lower temperatures a bit, especially late in the day on Thursday
going into the overnight hours. Currently looking for lower teens
Thursday night but middle to upper single digits are not out of the

Continued CAA and lowered H5 heights continue into Friday and
Saturday, keeping temperatures below average. Look for highs on
Friday and Saturday to only reach the lower to middle 30s.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night)
Issued at 1101 PM MST Fri Dec 15 2017

VFR conditions should continue, though conditions may begin to
decrease around the end of the TAF period. Winds should shift to
the northeast behind a front Saturday afternoon.




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