Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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000
FXUS63 KGLD 232006
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
206 PM MDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1149 AM MDT SAT MAY 23 2015

PLAN TO UPDATE GRIDS AND ZONES FOR THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO AREA OF
CLEARING ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST PORTION OF THE FA. MAX TEMPERATURES
WILL NEED TO BE ADJUSTED FOR THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 321 AM MDT SAT MAY 23 2015

LATEST UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWS THE CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR THE
FOUR CORNERS REGION.  DOWNSTREAM OF THE LOW SMALLER SCALE TROUGHS
WERE EJECTING OUT OF IT.  WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A FETCH OF
MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE TROUGH IN WHICH THE SMALLER SCALE FEATURES ARE
ABLE TO INTERACT WITH.

THIS MORNING THERE MAY BE SOME LINGERING RAINFALL FROM LAST NIGHT`S
ACTIVITY OVER THE NORTHEAST PART OF THE AREA.  OVER THE SOUTHERN
PART OF THE AREA ELEVATED CONVECTION SHOULD DEVELOP AHEAD OF ANOTHER
SHORT WAVE TROUGH.  THE BEST CHANCE FOR STORMS THIS MORNING WILL BE
OVER THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OF THE AREA AHEAD OF THE SHORT WAVE
TROUGH.  INSTABILITIES AHEAD OF THE TROUGH ARE UP TO 1000J/KG.  WITH
DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 40KTS...AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM IS CERTAINLY
POSSIBLE THIS MORNING.  ASIDE FROM THE THUNDERSTORMS...PATCHY
DRIZZLE/FOG WILL CONTINUE FROM LAST NIGHT THROUGH THE MORNING.

DURING THE LATE MORNING AND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON A WARM FRONT
SHOULD MOVE THROUGH THE WEST HALF OF THE AREA FROM THE
SOUTHWEST...SCOURING OUT THE LOW CLOUDS AND ALLOWING THE GROUND TO
WARM SOME.  BEHIND THE WARM FRONT A DRY LINE WILL APPROACH THE AREA
FROM THE WEST WITH ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING OVER
IT BY MID AFTERNOON.  EXPECT STORMS TO INITIALLY FIRE ALONG THE DRY
LINE.  EAST OF THE DRY LINE MORE SCATTERED STORM DEVELOPMENT IS
EXPECTED TO THE WEAKER LIFT

DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING THE CLOSED LOW WILL BE OVER THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES CAUSING THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER THE DRY LINE TO
DEEPEN FURTHER.  EXPECT STORM COVERAGE TO PEAK BY EARLY EVENING OVER
EAST CENTRAL COLORADO NEAR THE DRY LINE...WITH COVERAGE DECLINING TO
THE EAST AS THE LIFT BECOMES WEAKER.  THE STORM ACTIVITY WILL MOVE
NORTH THROUGH THE EVENING.

OVERNIGHT ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA FROM
THE WEST.  THIS TROUGH WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES EAST ACROSS THE
NORTHERN 1/3 OF THE AREA.  WITH THE MAJORITY OF THE INSTABILITY
NORTH OF THE AREA...DO NOT EXPECT ANY STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS
OVERNIGHT.

REGARDING THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TODAY...IF THE WARM FRONT
DOES NOT MOVE AS FAR NORTH/EAST AS PREDICTED THE LOW CLOUDS WILL
REMAIN PREVENTING THE GROUND FROM WARMING AND MIXED LAYER CAPES FROM
RISING.  WAS INITIALLY CONFIDENT THERE WOULD BE SEVERE STORMS
TODAY...BUT LATEST 2 RUNS OF MODEL DATA ARE BEGINNING TO SHOW A MORE
STABLE ENVIRONMENT DUE TO THE WARM FRONT NOT MOVING AS FAR
NORTH/EAST AS PREDICTED FOR THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS.  HOWEVER IF THE
WARM FRONT DOES MOVE THROUGH SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE DUE TO
MIXED LAYER CAPE OF 1500J/KG AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 50KTS.  LOOKS
LIKE THE BULK OF THE SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE WEST OF HIGHWAY 27.
LARGE HAIL UP TO HALF DOLLAR IS POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS
ALONG WITH SEVERE WIND GUSTS.  TORNADOES MAY ALSO DEVELOP DURING THE
LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING MAINLY WEST OF HIGHWAY 27 DUE TO 0-1KM
BULK SHEAR AROUND 20KTS...0-1KM HELICITY CLOSE TO 100M2/S2 AND
STORMS TRAINING NEAR THE DRY LINE.  HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED OVER
THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT OF THE AREA WHERE RAINFALL CHANCES ARE
HIGHEST.  DUE TO THE RECENT MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL FROM LAST
NIGHT OVER THIS AREA...WITH SOME LOCATIONS RECEIVING 3-6 INCHES OF
RAINFALL AND MORE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...HAVE ISSUED A
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THIS PART OF THE AREA.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 206 PM MDT SAT MAY 23 2015

SUNDAY NIGHT...WHILE MAIN UPPER LOW CENTER WILL BE IN THE PROCESS
OF TRANSITIONING NORTH AND EAST OF THE CWA...A SECONDARY
SHORTWAVE WILL BE MOVING INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST AS LARGE
SCALE UPPER TROUGH REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS CENTRAL ROCKIES/PLAINS.
FALLING HEIGHTS WILL PEAK IN THE EVENING WITH INCREASE IN
ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND OMEGA PRIMARILY IN THE NW HALF OF THE CWA
DURING THE EVENING...THOUGH FORCING AND MOISTURE ADVECTION REMAIN
IN PLACE THROUGH MOST OF THE NIGHT ACROSS THE CWA. INITIALLY
THERE IS A WINDOW IN THE EVENING WHERE NAM SHOWS GOOD
INSTABILITY/SHEER AXIS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN HALF OF THE
AREA...HOWEVER THIS IS HIGHLY DEPENDED ON CLEARING EARLIER IN THE
DAY. WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR POTENAIL SET UP FOR SEVERE WEATHER
SIMILAR TO TODAY.

MONDAY-SATURDAY...AS LARGE SCALE UPPER LOW BREAKS DOWN A
PROGRESSIVE ZONAL PATTERN ESTABLISHES ITSELF ACROSS THE REGION
WITH SERIES OF SHORT WAVE TROUGHS MOVING OVER THE CWA. PWATS AND
DEWPOINTS REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL...THOUGH WITH PROGRESSIVE FLOW WE
MAY NOT BENEFIT FROM QUITE AS MUCH MOISTURE ADVECTION FROM THE
GULF WITH THESE SYSTEMS AND MODELS MAY BE OVERDONE WITH MOISTURE
FLUX DURING SOME PERIODS. WHILE FINER DETAILS ARE HARD TO PIN
DOWN...GUIDANCE SHOWS ENOUGH CONSISTENCY IN OVERLAPPING PRECIP
SIGNALS MOST PERIODS TO KEEP HIGHER POPS IN PLACE. VERY HIGH
ELEVATED INSTABILITY IS ADVERTISED MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING AND
AGAIN TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. A QUESTION WOULD BE STRENGTH OF
CAP IN PLACE AND TIMING OF INITIATION. SHEER IS ALSO NOT AS ROBUST
AS THE LAST FEW DAYS...HOWEVER SEVERE THREAT WILL STILL BE THERE
CONSIDERING THE STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND INSTABILITY
ADVERTISED. GFS/ECMWF BOTH SHOW LESS INSTABILITY IN PLACE
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...BUT THERE IS ENOUGH TO KEEP
THUNDERSTORM MENTION IN PLACE (THOUGH SHOWERS MAY BE FAVORED WITH
SOME OF THESE SHORTWAVES).

REGARDING TEMPERATURES...WHILE CONTINUING TO BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT
ON SKY COVER (AS IS USUALLY THE CASE) THERE SHOULD BE A GENERAL
WARMING TREND WITH NEAR NORMAL TO ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS IN THE
70S/LOWER 80S MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH MODEL CONSENSUS
FAVORING BLOW NORMAL TEMPS IN THE UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S BY
FRIDAY/SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1149 AM MDT SAT MAY 23 2015

CONDITIONS AT KGLD HAVE IMPROVED TO VFR DUE TO AREA OF CLEARING
MOVING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. KMCK SHOULD IMPROVE AS WELL BUT
SHOULD REMAIN IFR AND THEN IMPROVE TO MVFR LATER. CONDITIONS AT
BOTH SITES WILL DROP BACK DOWN TO IFR BEHIND THUNDERSTORMS THAT
SHOULD MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 1 AM CDT SUNDAY FOR KSZ001.

CO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT FOR COZ090-091.

NE...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT FOR NEZ079.

&&

$$

UPDATE...FS
SHORT TERM...JTL
LONG TERM...DR
AVIATION...FS



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