Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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000
FXUS63 KGLD 282328
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
428 PM MST WED JAN 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 113 PM MST WED JAN 28 2015

RAISED TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES THIS AFTERNOON BASED ON CURRENT
TRENDS. WEAK COLD ADVECTION IS UNDERWAY SO THINKING TEMPERATURES
WILL HOLD FAIRLY STEADY THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON RANGING FROM LOW
60S IN THE NORTHWEST COUNTIES TO LOW 70S IN THE EAST.

A MID-LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS EXITING THE AREA AT MIDDAY WITH
STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND MIXING IN ITS WAKE. 40-50 KT WINDS IN THE
850-500 MB LAYER WILL CONTINUE TO MIX TO THE SURFACE THIS
AFTERNOON RESULTING IN NW WINDS GUSTING 35-40 MPH AND OCCASIONALLY
HIGHER UNTIL SUNSET. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE
AREA OVERNIGHT WITH A GRADUALLY WEAKENING SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT. AS A RESULT...WINDS TONIGHT WILL BECOME NORTHERLY AT
15-20 MPH THIS EVENING SLOWLY DIMINISHING TO 10-15 MPH BY MORNING.

COLDER AIR WILL FILTER IN OVERNIGHT RESULTING IN 850 MB TEMPS
TOMORROW AFTERNOON A GOOD 10 DEGREES LOWER THAN TODAY. AS A
RESULT...HIGHS THURSDAY WILL HOLD IN THE LOW TO MIDDLE 40S WHICH
IS ACTUALLY CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR LATE JANUARY.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 246 PM MST WED JAN 28 2015

FORECAST CONCERNS WILL BE PRECIPITATION EVENT FROM FRIDAY
AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AND HOW COLD TO MAKE TEMPERATURES
FOLLOWING OUR END OF WEEK STORM SYSTEM. SATELLITE SHOWING AN
AMPLIFIED FLOW OVER THE PACIFIC WITH LARGE AND CLOSED OFF SYSTEM
OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC. THE FLOW TRANSITIONS INTO A SPLIT FLOW
ACROSS THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL PORTION OF THE COUNTRY. SYSTEM IS
WEST OF THE BAJA IS PULLING UP SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE IN ADVANCE OF
IT. THE FIRST IN SERIES OF COLD FRONTS PASSED THROUGH THE AREA
TODAY.

AT JET LEVEL...MODELS LOOKED TO INITIALIZE FINE. MODELS STARTED
OUT FINE AT MID LEVELS. HOWEVER...MAIN SYSTEM IS STILL OVER THE
OCEAN. THE GFS...CANADIAN...AND ECMWF WERE DOING THE BEST WITH THE
SREF AND NAM THE WORST. SREF AND NAM WERE DOING BEST AT THE
SURFACE FOLLOWED BY ECMWF. THE MODELS TENDED TO BE TOO COOL WITH
THE ECMWF AND GFS BEING THE CLOSEST.

THURSDAY NIGHT...RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OF UPPER JET AND WARM
ADVECTION PATTERN ALOFT OCCURS DURING THE NIGHT. SURFACE RIDGE IS
MOVING THROUGH EARLY IN THE PERIOD WITH RETURN FLOW AND INCREASING
WINDS TAKING PLACE BY LATE EVENING. SO AN EARLY MIN...ESPECIALLY
IN THE WEST WILL OCCUR. SO MINS WILL BE A LITTLE TRICKY. AT THIS
TIME WENT COOLER IN THE EAST WHERE THE WINDS STAY LIGHTEST THE
LONGEST. TENDED TO GO ABOVE GUIDANCE DUE TO HOW FAST THE ONSET OF
WARM AIR ADVECTION TAKES PLACE AND MODELS RECENT COOL BIAS IN THIS
SCENARIO.

FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT...AHEAD OF INCOMING COLD FRONT...WHICH ONLY
MAKES IT INTO THE NORTHWEST CORNER LATE IN THE DAY...SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL BE BREEZY AT THE VERY LEAST. AS NOTED IN THE FIRST
PARAGRAPH THERE IS A LOT OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE STREAMING IN FROM
THE SOUTHWEST. BY THE END OF THE DAY AND INTO THE NIGHT...THE MODELS
DIFFER ON THE MOISTURE PROFILE.

WITH MORE OF A WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT...AM THINKING THAT THE NAM IS
SATURATING TOO FAST. LIKE THE ECMWF AND GFS DEPICTION OF A
SATURATED MID AND UPPER LEVEL AIR MASS AND DRY IN THE LOWER LAYERS
BY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. SO CONFINED SPRINKLES AND SLIGHT CHANCE
OF RAIN TO THE FAR SOUTH. CONSIDERING THE AMOUNT OF MID AND UPPER
LEVEL CLOUD COVER...WENT A LITTLE COOLER THAN THE WARMER GUIDANCE
FOR THE HIGH TEMPERATURES.

MOISTURE PROFILE IMPROVES THROUGH THE NIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN THE
SOUTHEAST HALF. BASED ON PLAN RELATIVE HUMIDITY PROGS AND FORECAST
SOUNDINGS...THERE LOOKS TO BE A SHARP GRADIENT OF THE MOISTURE.
THE ECMWF SOLUTION IS SLOWER...FURTHER NORTH AND MORE CUTOFF THAN
THE GFS WHICH IS ELONGATED...FURTHER SOUTH AND MORE OPEN. FOR THIS
RUN IT LOOKS LIKE THE MODES TRENDED A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH. IN
SPLIT FLOW...THE NORTHERN STREAM USUALLY ENDS UP MORE DOMINANT
AND MODELS HAVE SYSTEMS TOO FAR NORTH. AM SIDING A LITTLE MORE
WITH THE GFS. THIS KEEPS THE QPF FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST.

SO CONFINED THE HIGHEST POPS TO THE SOUTHEAST HALF. NOT A LOT OF
COLD AIR WITH THIS INITIALLY. WHEN THE COLD AIR DOES GET HERE...THE
MOISTURE AND LIFT ARE EAST OF THE COLDER AIR WITH NO WRAP AROUND
OCCURRING BEHIND THE ELONGATED LOW. SO AT THIS TIME AM GOING WITH
A MIXTURE OF RAIN AND SNOW. LITTLE SNOW ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.

SATURDAY...MID LEVEL TROUGHLINE AT 700 MB OF MOSTLY AN OPEN WAVE
STARTS MOVING EAST OF THE AREA DURING THE LATE MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON. SO THE HIGHEST POPS WILL AGAIN BE CONFINED TO THE
SOUTHEAST PORTION WITH A DECREASING TREND IN THE AFTERNOON. AGAIN
KEPT A RAIN AND SNOW MIX WITH LITTLE ACCUMULATION IN THE MORNING
WITH ALL RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON. WITH THE COLD AIR ADVECTION AND
CLOUD COVER...WENT ON THE COOLER SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE FOR THE HIGH
TEMPERATURES.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...ABOVE MENTIONED SATURDAY
SHORTWAVE WILL EXIT RATHER QUICKLY SATURDAY EVENING. SO CONFINED
POPS TO THE EVENING WITH NO PRECIPITATION AFTER THAT. THIS CHANCE
WAS LOWERED FROM THE INIT WHICH LOOKED TOO WET. ECMWF ALSO LOOKS
TOO WET IN THIS INSTANCE PER THE ABOVE REASONING.

COLDEST AIR IN A WHILE SURGES INTO THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THE INIT RAISED SUNDAY MAXES FROM THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST. BASED ON THE PROGGED 850 MB TEMPERATURES AND GOOD COLD
AIR ADVECTION...CHOSE TO LOWER SUNDAY MAXES FROM THE INIT. AFTER
THAT THE TEMPERATURES LOOKED REASONABLE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD AND MADE NO CHANGES.

THE NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO BE TUESDAY NIGHT.
SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALONG WITH A LEFT FRONT QUADRANT OF A JET MOVES
THROUGH THE AREA AT THAT TIME. RIGHT NOW THE INIT GAVE A SLIGHT
CHANCE IN THE AREA WHERE THE MODELS PUT THE LIFT. SO THAT LOOKS
REASONABLE AND LEFT ALONE. WEDNESDAY LOOKS DRY AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 428 PM MST WED JAN 28 2015

VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AT KGLD AND
KMCK. SOME  GUIDANCE IS HINTING AT A PERIOD OF 2000-3000 FT AGL
CEILINGS DEVELOPING NEAR KGLD LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY
MORNING. HIGH RES SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE PREVAILS VFR AND
CONSIDERING THE LOW LEVEL PATTERN OVER THE REGION...VFR SHOULD BE
FAVORED. WHILE STRONGEST WIND GUSTS SHOULD DIMINISH IN THE 00-01Z
TIME PERIOD TIGHT SURFACE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH
MIDDAY THURSDAY...SO PREVAILING NW WINDS WILL REMAIN IN THE
15-20KT RANGE THROUGH AROUND 18Z. WINDS SHOULD THEN DROP BELOW
12KT BY THE MID AFTERNOON THURSDAY.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DLF
LONG TERM...BULLER
AVIATION...DR


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