Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

FXUS63 KGLD 181857

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
1257 PM MDT Tue Oct 18 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 1256 PM MDT Tue Oct 18 2016

This afternoon/tonight... A continued dry forecast will prevail the
rest of today and into the evening. Water vapor imagery indicates a
shortwave situated just east of the Great Basin at midday, moving
eastward into the central Rockies. HiRes model guidance is
converging upon a solution that would bring the shortwave into the
central Plains sometime early Wednesday morning. For tonight,
relatively calm winds and partly cloudy skies will allow
temperatures to fall into the middle to upper 30s in our eastern
Colorado counties and the lower 40s elsewhere.

Wednesday... The NAM, ARW, and NMM all indicate scattered
precipitation mainly in the northernmost portions of the CWA as we
head into Wednesday morning with the shortwave and the associated
cold front. Much of the shower activity will remain in the Nebraska
counties and areas north and east due to favorable jet dynamics. As
the shortwave moves through our region, an area of high pressure
will build off the southern California coast, tilting the upper flow
pattern northwesterly to significantly increase our CAA going into
Wednesday evening. Highs on Wednesday will reach the lower 60s,
which is about where our seasonal average is for this time of

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Monday)
Issued at 203 AM MDT Tue Oct 18 2016

Quiet and dry weather prevails throughout the extended period. On
Friday, northwest flow aloft continues over the region with an upper
trough to the east and broad ridge to the west. Meanwhile at the
surface, high pressure pushes south towards Mexico. The ridge
strengthens and builds into the Plains over the weekend, with its
axis over the High Plains by Monday. PoPs are basically zero
throughout the entire period for the region.

Temperatures warm at the start of the extended, with highs in the
mid 70s to low 80s on Saturday. Will then see a slight decrease into
the low to mid 70s in time for Monday when a front approaches the
area. Lows will generally be in the mid 30s to mid 40s.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 1115 AM MDT Tue Oct 18 2016

VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period at both sites.
A gradual wind shift from north to southeast will take shape as we
head into the afternoon. During the late afternoon to early
evening, these winds will continue to shift easterly and
eventually northerly during the overnight period. Winds today and
tonight will remain light generally around or less than 10 knots.




AVIATION...TL is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.