Area Forecast Discussion Issued by NWS Goodland, KS
000
FXUS63 KGLD 131119
AFDGLD
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
519 AM MDT Wed Mar 13 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Potential for an isolated severe thunderstorm in eastern
portions of the area (mainly Norton/Graham counties) late this
aft/eve (~4-9 pm CDT).
- Accumulating wet snow possible across portions of eastern
Colorado during the day on Thursday, mainly at higher
elevations in far western portions of Kit Carson/Cheyenne
counties, where hazardous travel conditions associated with
heavy wet snow and breezy (25-35 mph) north winds are
possible. This includes portions of the I-70 corridor, mainly
west of Stratton, CO.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 455 AM MDT Wed Mar 13 2024
Overview: Potent shortwave energy over the Pacific Northwest,
situated invof the WA-OR-ID border at 09Z this morning, will dig
southward through the Intermountain West (along the western
periphery of an upper level trough over the western CONUS)
today-tonight, amplifying into an upper level low (Thu) that
stalls /cuts-off/ over the Desert Southwest (Thu night).
Today: A pronounced/deepening lee cyclone invof the OK
Panhandle this morning will track ENE-NE into central-eastern KS
this afternoon and evening. Current/recent model guidance
suggests that strengthening low-level warm advection and
frontogenesis on the northern fringe of the aforementioned
cyclone may aid in the development of convection over north-
central and (possibly) northwest KS late this aft-eve
(~00-03Z).. where [1] steep (7-8 C/km) mid-level (700-500 mb)
lapse rates atop a west-east oriented corridor of relatively
rich low-level moisture (850 mb dewpoints ~5-6C) will foster
500-1500 J/kg of MUCAPE.. and [2] forcing may be augmented by
DPVA assoc/w shortwave energy (rounding the base of the
amplifying western CONUS trough this morning) ejecting ENE-NE
across the Central Plains this aft-eve. Recent runs of the HRRR,
RAP and NAM NEST suggest that convection will develop in the
00-02Z (7-9 pm CDT) time frame.. and that the far western fringe
of initial development *may* include far eastern portions of
the GLD CWA (Graham/Norton counties). The timing.. after peak
heating, at sunset.. and location (northwest fringe of the
surface cyclone, amidst northeasterly low-level flow and cooler
SFC-H85 temperatures).. suggests that convection (if any)
developing invof Norton/Graham counties may tend to be elevated
in nature. With everything above in mind.. an isolated severe
thunderstorm capable of producing marginally severe hail cannot
be ruled out AOA sunset this evening.
Tonight-Thursday night: Guidance continues to indicate that
moderate to heavy precipitation will develop in the lee of the
Rockies late tonight and Thursday (mainly along the Colorado Front
Range and Palmer Divide).. as numerous shortwaves progress
around the E and NE periphery of a stalled upper low over the
Desert Southwest. Significant uncertainty persists with regard to
the eastern extent of moderate to heavy precipitation. Current
and recent runs of the GFS-ECMWF-HRRR continue to suggest that
the aforementioned surface low will rapidly progress northeast
from KS to IA/IL on Thu.. and that heavy precipitation will
largely be confined west of the GLD CWA. The NAM/NAM NEST, on
the other hand, indicate that the aforementioned surface low
will essentially stall over central-eastern KS.. aiding in the
development of a separate/distinct batch of heavy precipitation
over southwest NE and northwest KS on Thu. With relatively warm,
above-freezing low-level thermal/wetbulb profiles, precipitation
type is apt to be rate-driven in nature. With the above in mind,
heavy wet snow is anticipated to be confined to higher
elevations of the Palmer Divide.. e.g. far western Kit Carson/
Cheyenne counties in CO. *If* the scenario depicted by the NAM
NEST were to verify.. a rate-driven transition from rain to
heavy, wet accumulating snow would be possible in far northwest
KS and southwest NE.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 302 AM MDT Wed Mar 13 2024
High pressure near the surface is set to arrive Friday over the
Tri- State area bringing an end to the rain and snow from the
mid-week system during the morning hours. Little to no
additional accumulation is currently forecast for Friday as we
see the precipitation exit the area to the south. The upper
closed low over the Western CONUS is expected to sink further
south to remain nearly stationary and centered over the Las
Vegas through the weekend. Temperatures are forecast to be in
the 40s to mid 50s by the afternoon with overnight lows in the
20s to lower 30s. Depending on how much snow falls and how far
east it extends, temperatures could be a few degrees cooler.
Saturday, an upper trough over Southeastern Canada and the
Great Lakes region will extend into the Northern and Central
Plains while a cold front moves south across the region. Outside
of winds becoming northerly with gusts ~20 mph after frontal
passage, the area is expected to see little impact from the
front. Temperatures are expected to warm up into the 50s to
lower 60s Saturday afternoon with overnight lows in the 20s. Dry
conditions are expected through the end of the period with the
trough axis extending from the northern trough over the area on
Sunday while the closed low remains over Arizona. The tight
gradient over the area from the northern trough will create
breezy conditions across the area Sunday morning through the
early evening with gusts to ~30 mph out of the north to
northwest. Tranquil conditions continue on Monday and Tuesday as
the area remains between the two low pressure systems. Mild
temperatures are also expected to continue with highs in the 50s
Sunday and Monday. Overnight lows may fall into the 20s Sunday
night and the 20s to lower 30s Monday night. Tuesday looks to
warm up nicely with highs in the 60s to lower 70s and overnight
lows in the low to mid 30s.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 500 AM MDT Wed Mar 13 2024
VFR conditions will prevail through this afternoon.. and much
of this evening.. with ceilings at/above 6,000-9,000 ft AGL.
MVFR ceilings are anticipated to develop late this evening
(03-06Z Thu).. lowering to borderline MVFR-IFR or IFR near the
end of the TAF period (06-12Z Thu). Initially light and
variable winds will shift to the ENE and increase to 10-20
knots late this morning.. as a deepening low pressure system
tracks northeastward from the OK Panhandle into south-central
KS. Winds will back to the NE and increase to 15-25 knots this
evening (~02-04Z Thu).. as the aforementioned surface low
progresses northeastward across central-eastern KS.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Vincent
LONG TERM...KMK
AVIATION...Vincent