Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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000
FXUS63 KGLD 072327
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
427 PM MST SUN FEB 7 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 226 PM MST SUN FEB 7 2016

UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BE NORTHERLY TONIGHT AND MONDAY. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS TONIGHT AND MONDAY.

SUBSIDENCE WILL PRODUCE DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE FA TONIGHT AND
MONDAY.  POPS WILL BE NIL DURING THIS TIME.

THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD MAINTAIN BREEZY WINDS TONIGHT
WITH DECREASING SPEEDS MONDAY AS THE GRADIENT RELAXES.

MIN TEMPERATURES SHOULD COOL TO THE UPPER TEENS AND LOWER 20S
TONIGHT.  MAX TEMPERATURES SHOULD REACH THE MID AND UPPER 30S
MONDAY. SOME TEMPERATURES NEAR 40 COULD BE REALIZED OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN FA.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 226 PM MST SUN FEB 7 2016

THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW CONTINUES TO REMAIN FROM THE NORTHWEST...WITH
LITTLE MOVEMENT FROM THE RIDGE OVER THE GREAT BASIN UNTIL THE END OF
THE WEEK. THE ONLY CHANGE HAS BEEN TO DELAY THE PASSAGE OF THE SHORT
WAVE TROUGH THIS COMING WEEKEND ONE MORE DAY.

TUESDAY A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA.  HIGH TEMPERATURES
THE REST OF THE WEEK WILL WARM ABOVE NORMAL.  DRY CONDITIONS WILL
ALSO PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD IN THE DRY LAMINAR NORTHWEST UPPER
LEVEL FLOW.

TUESDAY WILL BE BREEZY AS THE WARMER TEMPERATURES ALLOW THE STRONGER
LOW LEVEL WINDS TO MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE.  AM STILL ANTICIPATING
THE SNOWFIELD TO HAVE ENOUGH OF A COOLING EFFECT TO LIMIT THE AMOUNT
OF MIXING.  HOWEVER IF THE SNOWFIELD DECREASES FASTER AND WARM AIR
ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT IS STRONGER...THE WINDS WILL BE HIGHER
THAN FORECAST.  CURRENTLY LOOKS LIKE WIND STRENGTH WILL BE SIMILAR
TO TODAY.

NEXT SUNDAY ALSO LOOKS TO BE BREEZY BEHIND A COLD FRONT WHICH WILL
ACCOMPANY THE SHORT WAVE AS THE TROUGH FLATTENS THE RIDGE AND MOVES
ONTO THE PLAINS.  CURRENTLY LOOKS LIKE THE FRONTAL PASSAGE SUNDAY
WILL BE DRY AS WELL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 427 PM MST SUN FEB 7 2016

VFR CONDITIONS THRU FORECAST PERIOD WITH ONLY FEW-SCT HIGH CLOUDS
AFFECTING THE AREA. WINDS NW 20-30KTS THRU 06Z MONDAY...THEN
DROPPING DOWN TO 15-25KTS. WIND SHEAR FOR BOTH TAF SITES THRU 06Z
MONDAY...NNW AROUND 50KTS.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FS
LONG TERM...JTL
AVIATION...JN


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