Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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000
FXUS63 KGLD 052114
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
214 PM MST THU MAR 5 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 213 PM MST THU MAR 5 2015

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PERSIST OVER THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT AND
TOMORROW WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER ALOFT ANCHORED OVER NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA AND THE TROUGH REMAINING IN PLACE OVER THE EASTERN UNITED
STATES. A WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT AND EAST OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS REGION BY EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING. AN EVEN WEAKER SHORT WAVE TROUGH ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE ACROSS THE REGION BY LATE FRIDAY. ONLY EXPECT AN INCREASE OF
CLOUDS WITH EACH SHORT WAVE TROUGH ALONG WITH A COUPLE OF WEAK
SURFACE TROUGHS EXPECTED TO TRAVERSE THE FORECAST AREA. SURFACE
FLOW REMAINS GENERALLY WESTERLY WITH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY
EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 15 DEGREES WARMER ON FRIDAY THAN ON
THURSDAY.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 213 PM MST THU MAR 5 2015

THE UPPER FLOW AT 500 MB FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE OUT OF THE NORTHWEST
AS A LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS BECOMES LESS
AMPLIFIED AND SHIFTS TO THE EAST.  A CUT OFF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
OVER THE BAJA PENINSULA WILL REJOIN THE UPPER FLOW PATTERN AND
PROGRESS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THIS WEEKEND WITH A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH PROGRESSING ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST.

BOTH PATTERNS WITH THE BEST LIFT AND JET SPEEDS WILL REMAIN WELL OUT
OF THE TRI STATE AREA...WHICH WILL ALLOW CALMER WEATHER TO SETTLE
OVER THE HIGH PLAINS THIS WEEKEND. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PASS
THROUGH THE PLAINS EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...BUT WITH A LACK OF
MOISTURE IN THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE FROM MODEL SOUNDINGS...NO
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED. HOWEVER...GFS SOUNDINGS WERE SHOWING
SATURATION ABOVE 500 MB...WHICH INDICATES THAT SOME HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE GEM FORECAST
WAS INDICATING A STRONG LOWER LEVEL JET OF AROUND 40 KTS WITH THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE...BUT THE ECMWF AND GFS40 GUIDANCE WAS MORE IN
LINE WITH 20 KTS. DECIDED TO GO WITH THE CONSENSUS THAT THE
HIGHEST WIND GUSTS BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BE AROUND 25
MPH SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE START OF NEXT WEEK...WHICH
WILL BRING A HIGH PRESSURE CENTER AT THE SURFACE TO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS NEXT WEEK. THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WILL PROGRESS TOWARDS THE
SOUTHEAST FOR MID WEEK...WHICH WILL BRING SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AND
WARM TEMPERATURES TO THE FORECAST AREA.  HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RISE
AS A RESULT INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1102 AM MST THU MAR 5 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT MCK AND GLD WITH A FEW HIGH
CLOUDS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS REGION THIS
EVENING.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LOCKHART
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...LOCKHART



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