Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 300345

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
945 PM MDT Mon May 29 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 101 PM MDT Mon May 29 2017

Across the Tri State region this afternoon...a mix of psunny/msunny
skies persists from this morning with temperatures ranging from the
upper 60s right thru the upper 70s. These numbers are cloud cover
dependent with the coolest spots across central zones. Scattered
showers continue to move from NW to SE over central portions of the
CWA. This instability is along a frontal boundary...but with high
cloud bases and RH readings currently in the 30-40 percent
range...looking for most of the radar returns showing up....will
probably be just light sprinkles or showers.

For the rest of the afternoon into the evening least thru
sunset do expect showers with even a slight chance for convection to
persist..tapering off with the loss of daytime heating. Models keep
cloud cover for most of the overnight have kept in at least
a slight chance for showers. Looking for overnight lows to only drop
down into the upper 40s and low 50s.

Going into Tuesday...weak shortwave traversing the region thru the
day provide weak instability to support a slight chance for
thunder...focused mainly over locales south of Interstate 70. Weak
surface ridging will keep precip in check for the remainder of the
region. Looking for highs to top off in a range from the mid 70s to
around 80F.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 229 PM MDT Mon May 29 2017

Tuesday night: Area should remain dry with decent upper level
ridging building behind the passing shortwave and northwest flow
aloft. Lows should be in the low to mid 50s with easterly winds.

Wednesday: Cold front lifts back across the area Wednesday as a warm
front. This combined with upslope flow will provide a focus for
thunderstorm development. Best severe parameters appear to be in the
eastern half of our CWA. Forecast soundings show MUCAPE values
around 1800 J/kg, 0-6km shear near 40 kt, DCAPE around 1000 J/kg,
right arcing hodographs, and good WAA. If convection is able to
fire, look for storms to be strong to severe through the afternoon
into the evening hours with all modes of severe weather possible.

Thursday: With strong ridging aloft, this period looks to be dry and
warm, with highs in the mid to upper 80s and lows in the upper 50s
and low 60s.

Friday-Monday: Strong model disagreement exists in this period which
results in me having low confidence in this part of the forecast.
GFS is advertising a much cooler, wetter forecast than the ECMWF for
Friday and Saturday. Both global models show split flow aloft but
have very different solutions for the southern half of the flow that
will influence our weather. Tried to go with a blend of the
solutions while keeping cohesiveness with neighbors. Current
forecast has chance of rain and thunderstorms starting Friday
afternoon and lasting through Saturday evening. Portions of Norton
and Graham counties could see upwards of an inch of rain with
current QPF. Sunday should remain dry. Monday may have a return of
wet weather with winds turning back out of the south.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
Issued at 945 PM MDT Mon May 29 2017

For KGLD and KMCK, vfr conditions expected through the period.
Just some high clouds early in the period as earlier convection
dissipates while moving east-southeast. Could see afternoon cu
develop Tuesday with perhaps some high clouds in the evening.
Winds generally under 7kts through the period and variable in




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