Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 040958

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
258 AM MST Sun Dec 4 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 252 AM MST Sun Dec 4 2016

Latest upper air analysis indicates a short wave trough over the
Central Plains with a closed low over Northern Mexico.  At the
surface a trough was moving east through the Tri-State Area.  Behind
the trough low dew points were moving into the Tri-State Area.  East
of the trough fog, with visibilities down to a quarter mile at
times, was slowly shifting east.  Am expecting the fog to be east of
the Tri-State Area well before sunrise.

Today temperatures will be warmer than yesterday as upper level
trough moves east and zonal flow develops overhead.  A surface high
will move through during the day so am expecting winds to be fairly

Tonight lows will be warmer than last night thanks to cloud cover
and the persisting warmer air mass.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 252 AM MST Sun Dec 4 2016

Main focus will be drastically cooler temperatures for latter half
of the work week and snowfall chances for Tuesday night and

Overview of impacts for this period...
Rapid wind increase behind cold front Monday evening, with an
hour or so of gusts of 35-40 MPH.

Wind chills in the single digits early Tuesday morning across the
area.  Wind chills in the single digits above and below zero
expected late Tuesday night through early Wednesday morning.  Wind
chills of 10 to 15 below zero Wednesday night and early Thursday

Two to three inches of snowfall forecast for Tuesday night with an
additional inch or so expected for Wednesday for NW KS. Not
expecting much wind so no drifting expected. Minor impacts to
travel expected.

Monday high temperatures will be even warmer as warm air advection
increases ahead of an arctic cold front which will move through
during the early evening.  During the afternoon a pre-frontal trough
will move through from the northwest.  Behind the trough winds will
turn to the northwest and gradually increase.

Monday night the arctic front will move through during the early
evening.  Along the front northwest winds will rapidly increase as a
shallow mixed layer allows the stronger low level jet to mix to the
ground briefly.  Wind gusts of 35 to 40 MPH are likely along the
front.  The wind will decline behind the front.

Latest data indicates a dry frontal passage despite a shallow
saturated layer developing between 700 and 600mb.  The saturated
layer develops behind the 700mb short wave trough.  There is some
weak lift over East Central Colorado due to another short wave
trough further west, so some flurries are possible.

After midnight wind chills will fall to the single digits, a stark
contrast from the low to mid 50s Monday afternoon.

Tuesday morning wind chills in the single digits will continue until
mid morning before warming.  Highs will be around 25 degrees cooler
than Monday.  Fortunately winds will be light as a surface high
moves through.

Tuesday late afternoon through the night a stronger upper level
short wave trough will move through the Tri-State Area.  During the
evening a band of frontogenesis in the 700-600mb layer will develop
over the northern part of the Tri-State Area.  While weak isentropic
lift will be occurring over the entire Tri-State Area, the
frontogenesis should lead to the formation of a band of slightly
heavier snowfall.  There will be light to moderate lift occurring in
the dendritic growth zone over the entire forecast area as well. The
frontogenesis band remains fairly stationary during the evening then
moves south overnight.  The environment looks fairly stable for most
of the night which may limit how much snowfall the frontogenesis and
lift in the dendritic growth zone will generate.

Frontogenesis increases as the band moves south.  The frontogenesis
may end up producing the same amount of snow as it moves southward
over the south half as over north half despite not moving much over
the north.

As the first band of frontogenesis moves south overnight a second
band develops over the north part of the area.  This band does not
appear to be as strong due to the frontogenesis being lower.  The
stability is also higher over the north half of the area which will
hinder how much snow is generated with the frontogenesis.

Current forecast has two to three inches of snow possible for the
forecast area Tuesday night. Noticed winds will be from the east
during the night. In past snowfall events with an east wind the
snow was heavier and wetter than we typically have. Not too sure
this event will be a wet snow due to the passage of the arctic
front Monday evening.

Wednesday...clouds and precipitation steadily decrease from west to
east during the day as upper ridging moves ashore on the west coast
pushing the upper trough that impacted the area Tuesday east.
Additional accumulation an inch or two, mainly east of the CO/KS
border. A clear to mostly clear sky expected during the night.
Forecast concern will be on temperatures and impact(s) of potential
snow cover on them. A 1035-1040mb sfc high noses into the area
during the day with a 1043mb high over the area during the night.
After high temperatures only in the mid teens to low 20s ideal
conditions possible for very cold low temperatures. We`ll have some
snow cover, clear sky, and northwest winds around 10 mph. Should see
lows in the zero to -5F range in far eastern Colorado with 0 to +5F
elsewhere, certainly subject to change. Wind chills -10F to near -

Thursday...broad but deamplifying upper ridge starts to move over
the area with some mid and high clouds with it. Dry weather is
expected with high temperatures in the low to mid 20s and overnight
lows in the single digits above zero. Overnight wind chills in the
zero to -10F range.

Friday...mid and upper level clouds increase across the area as a
fast moving weather disturbance approaches the area. There is a
small chance for some light after midnight. High temperatures warm
into the low to upper 30s (east to west) with low temperatures in
the upper teens to low 20s.

Saturday...there is some suggestion that Friday nights weather
disturbance moves across the area during the afternoon with
wraparound mixed precipitation mainly along and north of the
interstate. Northwest winds may approach the breezy category with
gusts around 25 mph possible. Current forecast has this area of
precipitation moving east and out of the area around or shortly
after midnight. High temperatures in the mid 30s to around 40 north,
low 40s far south. Low temperatures in the mid teens.&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)
Issued at 930 PM MST Sat Dec 3 2016

For KGLD and KMCK, vfr conditions expected through the period.
West winds up to 10kts expected from taf issuance through mid to
late afternoon Sunday before backing to the southwest at similar
speeds through much of the remaining taf period. KGLD may see
winds from the southwest reach 12kts by 05z.




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