Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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000
FXUS63 KGLD 280832
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
132 AM MST SUN DEC 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 132 AM MST SUN DEC 28 2014

THE TRI-STATE AREA WILL BE BETWEEN SYSTEMS SUNDAY AS WEST MID LEVEL
FLOW DEVELOPS BETWEEN DEPARTING SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND THE NEXT ONE
CURRENTLY OVER EASTERN IDAHO. ALTHOUGH MODELS BRING CIRRUS ACROSS
THE AREA...EXPECT A DECENT AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE TODAY. THE CURRENT
SNOW FIELD ACROSS FAR WESTERN KANSAS AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA IS
NEITHER ESPECIALLY DEEP NOR EXTENSIVE...THOUGH IT WILL STILL LIMIT
HIGH TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO REACH INTO THE
30S MOST LOCATIONS TODAY WITH SLIGHT WARM AIR ADVECTION.

THE MOST CHALLENGING PART OF THIS FORECAST BEGINS TONIGHT AS ARCTIC
COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS NEBRASKA. IT WILL REACH THE KANSAS/NEBRASKA
BORDER AROUND 12Z MONDAY...AND SIGNIFICANT COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL
THEN CONTINUE FOR 24 HOURS OVER THE ENTIRE AREA. 850 MB TEMPERATURES
EVENTUALLY DROP TO -16 CELSIUS BY MONDAY NIGHT. SO THE BIG MESSAGE
FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL BE VERY COLD TEMPERATURES/WIND CHILLS.

THE SNOW POTENTIAL IS A LARGE QUESTION. GFS/NAM DEPICT A FEW INCHES
OF SNOW MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY WITH A 300 MB JET AXIS
OF 120 KNOTS OVER THE AREA. NAM ANALOGS SUPPORT A 2-4 INCH FORECAST.
HOWEVER...PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE PROGGED TO BE BELOW
NORMAL...ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE WILL BE LIMITED ESPECIALLY DURING THE
DAY MONDAY...AND LOW LAYER FRONTOGENESIS IS MARGINAL. WILL GO
WITH A BASIC 1-3 INCH FORECAST LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.
CONSIDERED ISSUING SOME SORT OF WINTER WEATHER OR WIND CHILL
HIGHLIGHT MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...BUT AFTER COLLABORATION WITH
SURROUNDING OFFICES...DECIDED TO CHECK THE NEXT 12Z MODEL RUNS
WHICH SHOULD ADD MORE CONFIDENCE IN SNOWFALL PROJECTIONS.

DYNAMICS PUSH SOUTH AND EAST TUESDAY NIGHT FOR CLEARING SKIES AND
CONTINUED COLD.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1227 AM MST SUN DEC 28 2014

SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL START THE PERIOD ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
THOSE DAYS WILL BE DRY WITH A SLOW MODERATION OF THE ARCTIC AIR
MASS BUT TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN MUCH BELOW NORMAL. GFS AND ECMWF
STILL IN DISAGREEMENT ON THE TRACK OF THE UPPER LOW KICKING OUT OF
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST ON FRIDAY...ALTHOUGH THE ECMWF HAS TRENDED A
LITTLE TOWARDS THE GFS AND BRINGS IT FURTHER NORTH BUT NOT QUITE
AS FAR AS THE GFS...WHICH PAINTS A FAIRLY DECENT SWATH OF SNOW
ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA FROM LEOTI
TO HILL CITY. WILL CARRY SOME LOW POPS BUT CONFIDENCE STILL NOT
ALL THAT GREAT. ANOTHER SHOT OF COLD ARCTIC AIR WILL FOLLOW THAT
SYSTEM OVER THE WEEKEND WITH DRY CONDITIONS UNDER ZONAL FLOW
ALOFT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1024 PM MST SAT DEC 27 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR BOTH TAF SITES THRU FORECAST PERIOD.
CLEAR SKIES WILL TRANSITION TO SCT120-150 BY 14Z-16Z...THEN BY 00Z
BKN100-120 WITH SOME LOW CLOUD NEAR SCT040 WITH LIGHT FLURRIES.
WINDS FOR KGLD...WSW 5-10KTS. WINDS FOR KMCK WSW 5-10KTS BECOMING
SOUTH NEAR 10KTS BY 16Z SUNDAY MORNING...THEN VRB05KT BY 02Z
MONDAY.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MENTZER
LONG TERM...024
AVIATION...JN



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