Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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000
FXUS63 KGLD 291955
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
155 PM MDT MON AUG 29 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 155 PM MDT Mon Aug 29 2016

Closed mid/upper low is in place over southern Colorado/northern New
Mexico, with long moist plume of moisture extending from the Pacific
across the Plains. Upper level analysis indicates large scale forcing
in place over our CWA which has combined with this very moist air
mass and (limited) instability to produce showers and embedded
thunderstorms over the eastern part of our CWA.

This afternoon-Tuesday...Large scale forcing remains in place, with
favorable axis (and strongest precip signal by ensembles) in our
eastern CWA. Better instability is in the west (where cloud cover
has remain thinner), and this should eventually support additional
development from the west. Better coverage should remain east,
however scattered to numerous showers/thunderstorms will remain
possible across much of the area. With less forcing in the west
there is a better chance for periods of clearing/dry conditions,
however confidence overall is not high enough to completely remove
chances during any period. Shear is weak, so limited severe threat
may be confined to region of 1000-2000 J/KG CAPE in the west. Due to
the moist nature of the air mass in place, warm rain processes
(skinny CAPE/warmer thermal profiles), and slower individual cell
motions, any thunderstorms could produce heavy rain (flash flood
threat). Where cloud cover has persisted instability may be much
weaker and this could play a role in limiting the coverage of
stronger storms and heaviest rain potential.

Regarding temperatures: After cold front and upper low shift east,
air mass will be slightly cooler Tuesday than today. If cloud cover
and precip remains similar to today then we may barely warm out of
the low 70s over parts of our CWA. Other areas may reach the low 80s
assuming the cloud cover thins out enough. I trended the temperature
from consensus towards the lower end of guidance as confidence in
clearing is low.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 155 PM MDT Mon Aug 29 2016

Unsettled weather is anticipated during the long term with chances
for showers and thunderstorms nearly every period. Temperatures
start off below normal before gradually rising to near/above
normal this weekend.

Tuesday night through Thursday night: Upper level ridging slowly
progresses from the Rockies to the Plains during this time frame
with a trough following in behind. A cold front approaches the High
Plains from the northeast Tuesday night, moving across the region on
Wednesday. With moisture present, there are chances for showers and
storms through Wednesday as the boundary traverses the Plains.
Chances decrease Wednesday night through Thursday night behind the
frontal passage as drier air moves in and the upper ridge sits
overhead. As such, kept nil PoPs Thursday night into Friday. Looking
at the severe threat, shear seems to be unfavorable for organized
severe convection. However, moisture will be sufficient and daytime
heating should produce some instability in the area, so cannot rule
out a few strong to marginally severe storms Tuesday evening and
Wednesday.

Friday through Monday: Southwesterly flow aloft develops over the
area on Friday as the upper ridge continues east and weakens and an
upper trough advances onto the west coast. As this next system
progresses eastward during the extended, shortwaves are ejected
through the flow with the trough axis remaining to our west. These
disturbances generate periodic shower and thunderstorm chances
through Monday, with the best chance during the extended appearing
to be Saturday night.

Temperatures steadily increase through the weekend, starting out in
the upper 70s to low 80s on Wednesday and rising into the upper 80s
to low 90s by Saturday. Low temperatures will be generally in the
mid 50s to mid 60s, with a few eastern locations staying in the
upper 60s during the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 1142 AM MDT Mon Aug 29 2016

Current radar trends indicate rain showers and isolated
thunderstorms moving north generally east of KGLD towards KMCK.
Models indicate this activity slowly shifting east with additional
scattered showers/thunderstorms developing this afternoon/evening
before coverage transitions eastward. Best thunderstorm coverage
will tend to be in the afternoon/evening. Besides the ongoing
activity confidence is lower on where and how the activity will
unfold due to model variances, with better consistency/higher
confidence at KMCK. A very moist air mass will remain in place,
and low level moisture will actually begin to increase tonight
allowing for fog/low stratus redevelopment. Currently the
strongest signal for IFR conditions is at KGLD, however both
terminals should see a period of MVFR cigs/vis around 12Z.


&&

.GLD Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...JBH
AVIATION...DR



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