Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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000
FXUS63 KGLD 260943
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
243 AM MST WED NOV 26 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 235 AM MST WED NOV 26 2014

LATEST UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATES A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER
EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. SATELLITE AND RADAR SHOW A BAND OF CLOUDS
WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW OVER THE TRI-STATE AREA. MOST OF THE SNOWFALL
IS OVER EASTERN COLORADO. AS SUNRISE APPROACHES ANTICIPATE THE
SNOWFALL TO DISSIPATE TOWARD THE WEST AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
AXIS MOVES THROUGH THE AREA WITH SUBSIDENCE FOLLOWING THE TROUGH
AXIS. SNOWFALL SHOULD BE COMPLETELY WEST OF THE AREA BY OR SHORTLY
AFTER SUNRISE.

TODAY THE OVERCAST SKIES WILL GRADUALLY BREAKUP AS DRIER AIR MOVES
IN FROM THE NORTHWEST.  THERE IS SOME WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER THE
AREA TODAY BUT CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS ARE GENERALLY TOO
LARGE FOR ANY PRECIP. TO BE GENERATED FROM THE MEAGER LIFT SO WILL
CONTINUE WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR THE DAY. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
DECLINE FROM WEST TO EAST TODAY AS A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
INTO THE AREA. MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND SLOWER WITH THE WARM AIR
ADVECTION THAT FOLLOWS THE HIGH PRESSURE INTO THE AREA...SO HAVE
COOLED HIGHS TODAY AS A RESULT.

TONIGHT SKIES WILL BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR AS DRY AIR CONTINUES TO MOVE
OVER THE AREA IN THE NORTHWEST UPPER LEVEL FLOW.  LOWS WILL BE
COOLER THAN LAST NIGHT DESPITE THE WARM AIR ADVECTION DUE TO
RADIATIONAL COOLING AND LOWER DEW POINTS THAN LAST NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(THANKSGIVING DAY THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 235 AM
MST WED NOV 26 2014

THANKSGIVING DAY THROUGH FRIDAY WILL CONTINUE TO SEE A WARMING TREND
WITH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM 10 TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. THE
UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL TRANSITION FROM THE NORTHWEST TO THE WEST.
THERE WILL BE MULTIPLE UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGHS MOVING OVER
THE AREA...BUT DUE TO THE DRY ENVIRONMENT IN PLACE DO NOT EXPECT
MORE THAN A FEW CLOUDS WITH EACH TROUGH PASSAGE.



ZONAL FLOW WILL CONTINUE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.  A RIDGE WILL MOVE
INTO THE ROCKIES SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO THE PLAINS MONDAY. THE RIDGE
WILL SHIFT EAST TUESDAY WITH FLOW BECOMING SOUTHWESTERLY AHEAD OF A
TROUGH MOVING INTO THE WESTERN CONUS.  A SURFACE TROUGH WILL RESIDE
OVER EASTERN COLORADO SATURDAY AND THEN SHIFT EAST SUNDAY AS A COLD
FRONT MOVES SOUTH INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THE WEATHER WILL REMAIN
DRY AND MILD THROUGH THIS PERIOD SINCE THE RIDGE WILL SHUNT STORMS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN CONUS.

850MB TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM ENOUGH TO SUPPORT MAX TEMPERATURES IN
THE MID TO UPPER 60S SATURDAY.  MAX TEMPERATURES SUNDAY AND MONDAY
WILL BE COOLER BEHIND THE FRONT WITH READINGS IN THE 40S.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARMUP TO THE UPPER 50S TUESDAY.  MIN
TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT WILL COOL TO THE UPPER 20S. TEMPERATURES
SUNDAY AND MONDAY NIGHTS WILL FALL INTO THE TEENS AND LOW 20S
RESPECTIVELY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1022 PM MST TUE NOV 25 2014

AN AREA OF LIGHT RAIN STRETCHING FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS REGION HAS CHANGED OVER TO LIGHT
SNOW AS TEMPERATURES APPROACHED FREEZING. THIS LIGHT SNOW IS
EXPECTED TO AFFECT ONLY GLD AND NOT MCK AND SHOULD COME TO AN END
AROUND 09Z. LOW CLOUDS WILL PRODUCE MVFR CONDITIONS AND
INTERMITTENT IFR CONDITIONS AT GLD THROUGH ABOUT 09Z BEFORE
BECOMING VFR AGAIN THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD.

MCK IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR WITH A FEW LOWER CLOUDS UNDER THE
MID LEVEL CEILING. CEILINGS WILL LOWER...BUT STILL REMAIN VFR
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JTL
LONG TERM...FS/JTL
AVIATION...LOCKHART


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