Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 271852
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
1252 PM MDT Thu Apr 27 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1250 PM MDT Thu Apr 27 2017

Just completed an update to raise high temperatures a little due
to the breaks in the cloud cover allows temperatures to rise more.
Onset of main precipitation is a little slower except for the far
west. So slowed the increasing pops a little. Also adjusted pop
trends for tonight based on the latest data.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Saturday night)
Issued at 335 AM MDT Thu Apr 27 2017

Today-tonight...a weather disturbance is forecast to enter the
western portion of the forecast area by mid morning with increasing
precipitation potential by noon and continuing through the afternoon
before decreasing in coverage from southwest to northeast tonight as
it lifts northeast and away from the area. Could still have some
light precip across the far north and around sunrise parts of Yuma
county could see a mix or changeover to light snow briefly South to
southeast winds increase into the 15-20 mph range this afternoon
generally along and east of the CO/KS border before quickly shifting
to the northwest around 10 mph overnight. Currently expecting high
temperatures to be in the low to mid 50s in Yuma county to the low
to mid 60s generally along and south of the interstate, warmest in
the Tribune and Leoti areas. Low temperatures range from the low to
mid 30s in far eastern Colorado, mid 30s to around 40 elsewhere
across the area.

Friday-Friday night...An upper level low pressure area tries to
settle and organize in the four corners area by days end then slowly
moving south into parts of northwest Arizona overnight. At the sfc
winds become northeasterly very late in the day increasing toward 15
mph with some higher gusts as colder air is poised to move in. Am
currently advertising some precip chances Friday morning across the
northeast 1/2 of the area which may be overdone a bit, otherwise
chances do increase a bit during the afternoon as primarily mid
level moisture moves in from the west and northwest. Not much but
enough instability and modest lapse rates to at least mention some
isolated thunderstorms. For the overnight hours 850-500mb moisture
and qpf from the models including superblend favor best precip
chances generally along and south of the interstate with decreasing
chances further north. Rain will change over to snow for most and
where winds are in the 15 to 20 mph range some patchy blowing snow
possible. Accumulations right now generally a trace to an inch or
two for all but those from Trenton to Hill City east. High
temperatures in the upper 40s north to around 60 far south. Low
temperatures in the upper 20s to low 30s except mid 30s in the
Norton to Hill City areas.

Saturday-Saturday night...The upper low is forecast to move
southeast during the day reaching eastern New Mexico/western Texas
then start to lift northeast toward Southwest or south central
Kansas. Will be continuing with highest pops/qpf during the day
along and south of the interstate in the morning then across the
east through southeast in the afternoon. Should see mainly snow in
the morning with a slow transition to mostly rain in the afternoon
as sfc temperatures are forecast to warm into the mid 30s south to
mid 40s north. Not too optimistic in this given the extensive cloud
cover but still have time to watch later model runs. For the
overnight hours currently have wraparound moisture/precipitation
mainly impacting areas along and east of the CO/KS border. Liquid
precipitation will gradually become snow from west to east with
additional light accumulations possible. Low temperatures in the
mid 20s to low 30s.

Storm total snowfall amounts currently advertising an inch or two
along our Nebraska counties with 2 to 5 inches elsewhere across the
area.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Wednesday)
Issued at 203 AM MDT Thu Apr 27 2017

The beginning of the long term period will be impacted by the storm
system that is expected to reach the region Friday and continue
through the weekend. Current guidance shows fair agreement with the
closed low moving northeast over the region, with the backside of
the low moving over the eastern half of the region on Sunday. This
will bring snow to that area, as well as rain once the temperatures
increase throughout the day. By the end of Sunday evening the system
is expected to move out of the region. Snow amounts are still iffy
at this point, so as the weekend approaches there will need to be
fine tuning of the major impacts and the affected locations.

To start next week, the CWA is expected to be dry with northwest
upper level flow over the region. This dry pattern will continue
through Monday afternoon before precipitation chances return with
the movement of a cold front over the area. This will come along
with a broad open wave trough moving over the high Plains.

Precipitation chance will continue through Wednesday afternoon. This
is due to shortwave troughs moving over the region within that large
trough. There could also be isolated and general thunderstorm
chances Tuesday and Wednesday nights. By the end of the week, a
ridge looks to build into the western half of the USA.

Temperatures during the extended period will be in the mid 40s to low
50s on Sunday. The rest of the period will generally be in the 60s
across the area.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
Issued at 1141 AM MDT Thu Apr 27 2017

For Kgld...vfr conditions will start out the period. However
thunderstorms will be near or affect the site through mid evening
with the best chance of thunderstorms from 01z to 04z. During that
time mvfr with occasional ifr conditions. From 04z to 07z mvfr
conditions will be in place. After 07z vfr conditions will return.
Through 01z east to southeast winds near 15 knots with gusts to
near 24 knots.

For Kmck...vfr conditions are expected until 03z with
thunderstorms beginning to affect the site at 23z. At 03z the
greatest chance of thunderstorms will begin affect the site with
transition to showers during the overnight hours. From 03z to the
end of the period lifr conditions with occasional ifr conditions
are expected.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...BULLER
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...CLT
AVIATION...Buller



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