Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS
FXUS63 KGLD 232351
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
551 PM MDT TUE AUG 23 2016
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 130 PM MDT Tue Aug 23 2016
An upper level low pressure center currently located over north
central Arizona is generating showers and thunderstorms in the four
corners area. This low and its associated moisture is forecast to
move northeast tonight into the Colorado front range. Not expecting
precipitation to reach the west and southwest portions of our area
til about midnight then a bit further northeast through sunrise
Wednesday morning. For the afternoon hours the low and its moisture
are expected to move slowly east continuing the chance for showers
and thunderstorms for much of the area.
North to northeast winds around 10 mph or so tonight will veer to
the northeast at 15 to 20 mph with some higher gusts during the day
Low temperatures tonight in the low to mid 50s for far eastern
Colorado with mid 50s to low 60s east of the border. High
temperatures Wednesday will be tricky given the expected cloud cover
and precipitation. Currently shooting for low to mid 70s in far
eastern Colorado with mid 70s to low 80s elsewhere.
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 255 PM MDT Tue Aug 23 2016
An upper high will remain anchored across the Southeast US during
the extended period with a couple of upper level troughs moving
east across the C-N Plains. For our area that pattern translates
to an unsettled period Wed night into Fri night. The first chance
of precip will be exiting the region as the extended period
begins. After a short break, better chances for thunderstorms will
be Friday into Saturday when a more significant trough interacts
with decent moisture. As the weekend progresses, heights aloft
start building and precip chances become more hit-and-miss into
early next week.
Temperatures will start out cooler Thursday and Friday with highs
in the upper 70s to near 80. As heights aloft begin to build, max
temps will return to the middle and upper 80s for Sat-Tue.
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening)
Issued at 551 PM MDT Tue Aug 23 2016
VFR conditions should prevail through the TAF period at both KGLD
and KMCK. A disturbance and associated cold front will move
through the region after 09Z Wed morning with increasing precip
chances from the southwest to northeast late Wed morning. There
should be enough instability for a few thunderstorms, however
showers would be dominant in coverage. I could see several
clusters of showers and embedded thunderstorms forming, however
where these track is in question. Best coverage appears to be in
KGLD, with most guidance favoring scattered coverage overall.
Confidence was too low to introduce more than VCSH and PROB30 for
thunderstorms. Moderate showers or heavier rain associated with
embedded thunderstorms could lead to vis dropping to MVFR
(possibly IFR). Confidence is too low to prevail these conditions,
so I kept VFR.
Northerly winds should back towards the northeast by midday
Wednesday with prevailing winds generally around or just under
12kt. A few gusts to 20kt are possible at KGLD Wed morning.