Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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000
FXUS63 KGLD 241934
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
134 PM MDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 117 PM MDT THU JUL 24 2014

19Z WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATED LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
CONTINUING TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE AREA WITH
LARGE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. GOES SOUNDER
PRECIPITABLE WATER DATA INDICATES A PLUME OF MUCH DRIER AIR
EXTENDING FROM LAS ANIMAS TO GOODLAND COINCIDING WITH AREA WHERE
DEWPOINTS HAVE FALLEN INTO THE 40S WITH DEEP MIXING AS PER 19Z OBSERVATION.

FIRST CONCERN WILL BE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS AND IF WIDESPREAD
CRITICAL FUELS HAD BEEN REPORTED RECENTLY...AFOREMENTIONED AREA
WHERE DRY AIR IS IN PLACE WOULD LIKELY NEED A RFW AS STRONG
SOUTHWEST WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITIES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

ALTHOUGH VERY DRY AIR HAS ADVANCED INTO THE CENTER PART OF THE
CWA...APPEARS SOME MOISTURE POOLING IS BEING OBSERVED NEAR
CONVERGENT ZONE BETWEEN YUMA AND AKRON. CURRENT MESOANALYSIS DATA
INDICATES 1000-1500 J/KG OF CAPE IN THIS AREA AND WITH CU FIELD
FORMING THINK THIS AREA WILL SEE CONVECTIVE INITIATION PRIOR TO
22Z. COMBINATION OF SLOW STORM MOTION AND VERY DRY AIRMASS IN
CENTER OF CWA MAKES ME THINK COVERAGE WILL BE LIMITED TO THE
NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF CWA...WITH STORMS MAKING LITTLE EASTWARD OR
SOUTHEASTWARD PROGRESS INTO AREA.

COLD FRONT WILL ADVANCE INTO AREA OVERNIGHT AND INTO THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS WITH PERIOD OF GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS EXPECTED BETWEEN
11 AND 16Z. AS IT MOVES INTO UNFAVORABLE AIRMASS THINK IT WILL BE
VERY UNLIKELY FOR FRONT TO INITIATE ANY PRECIPITATION. FRONT WILL
STALL JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE CWA...BUT OVERALL DO NOT THINK
THERE WILL BE A HIGH LIKELYHOOD FOR CONVECTION IN THIS AREA AS
MOISTURE WILL POOL BEHIND FRONTAL ZONE...LIKELY SETTING UP AREA
FOR LATE AFTERNOON STORMS FORMING IN RELATIVELY MOIST EASTERLY
FLOW IN EASTERN COLORADO.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 150 AM MDT THU JUL 24 2014

FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD...REGION WILL SEE PATTERN SHIFT AS MODELS
BEGIN TO STRENGTHEN H5/H7 RIDGES OVER THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
COUNTRY...COUNTERACTED WITH A DEEPENING TROUGH/UPPER LOW SETTING UP
OVER THE GREAT LAKES/NORTHEAST REGIONS. UPPER FLOW AS A RESULT WILL
BE NORTHWEST OVER THE AREA FOR THE ENTIRE EXTENDED TIME FRAME. AT
THE SURFACE...A SERIES OF WEAK WAVES WILL MOVE OFF THE EASTERN
PORTION OF THE ROCKIES FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A
STRONGER LEE-SIDE TROUGH THAT SETS UP ON TUESDAY...SETTLING SOUTH OF
REGION EARLY WEDNESDAY AND THEN CONVERTING TO INVERTED TROUGH AND
MEANDER OF THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE RESULT OF THE SYNOPTIC
SETUP WILL BRING CHANCE FOR TRW/RW ALMOST EVERY DAY WITH BEST
CHANCES BEING TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AND THIS IS WHERE HIGHEST POPS
(30-40) ARE HIGHLIGHTED...BEFORE THINGS WIND DOWN WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY. AS A RESULT OF THE BROAD NW UPPER FLOW AND EXPECTED
CLOUD COVER...TEMPERATURES WILL BE GENERALLY A FEW DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S TO LOW 90S IN SPOTS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
RANGE IN THE LOW/MID 60S AND WILL BE HAMPERED AT TIMES IF ANY
RESIDUAL CLOUDS REMAIN FROM CONVECTION DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING
HOURS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1158 AM MDT THU JUL 24 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH GUSTY SOUTHERLY
WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH SUNSET...WITH WINDS AT MCK INCREASING BY
20Z. COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE THROUGH AREA AFTER 13Z...BRINGING A
PERIOD OF GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JRM
LONG TERM...JN
AVIATION...JRM






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