Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 181821
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1221 PM MDT THU SEP 18 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1011 AM MDT THU SEP 18 2014

DENSE FOG IS BEGINNING TO BREAK UP AS EXPECTED SO WILL ALLOW
DENSE FOG ADVISORY TO EXPIRE ON TIME. APPEARS TO BE A THICKER
CLOUD LAYER EAST OF A WRAY TO OAKLEY LINE THAT WILL SLOWLY LIFT
NORTH TODAY. HAVE CONCERNS ABOUT WHETHER OR NOT THIS AREA WILL
THIN OUT AND HAVE LOWERED MAX TEMP FORECAST SEVERAL DEGREES IN
THIS AREA.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 814 AM MDT THU SEP 18 2014

FOG HAS BEEN SLOWLY EXPANDING WESTWARD OVER THE PAST HOUR AND SO
FAR HAS SHOWN LITTLE SIGN OF BREAKING UP. THINK MOST WIDESPREAD
LOW VISIBILITIES WILL REMAIN ON LEADING EDGE OF STRATUS DECK SO
HAVE EXPANDED DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM IN THESE LOCATIONS.
HAVE NOTED DENSE FOG DEVELOPING AT MCK...BUT BASED ON WEB CAMS
AND OTHER OBSERVATIONS DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE AS WIDESPREAD OR AS
PERSISTENT AS WESTERNMOST FOG BANK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 259 AM MDT THU SEP 18 2014

A MIX OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ACROSS THE FORECAST AREAS THIS MORNING
WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING IN THE 60S. CURRENTLY...SFC RIDGE REMAINS
TO OUR NORTH AND EAST WITH A LOW LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING OUT ACROSS
THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL SYSTEM ODILE DO RESIDE
OVER THE SW PORTIONS OF THE COUNTRY. FOR TODAY THOUGH WILL HAVE
AREAS OF FOG THRU MID MORNING GIVING WAY TO MSUNNY/SUNNY SKIES. A
WARM DAY IS ON TAP YET AGAIN FOR THE ENTIRE AREA. SOUTHERLY FLOW
WILL BRING STRONG WAA INTO THE AREA AND WITH 925MB TEMPS REACHING
NEAR +28C TO +30C OVER THE CWA...WILL HAVE HIGHS AROUND 90F. WINDS
WILL BE ON THE INCREASE GOING INTO THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH
SFC TROUGH TO OUR WEST AND HIGH PRESSURE EAST OF THE REGION. TOWARDS
MORNING AS GRADIENT TIGHTENS...EXPECTING SOME GUSTS NEARING 30 MPH.
NOT EXPECTING FOG AS AIRMASS SHOULD BE WELL MIXED WITH EXPECTED WIND
REGIME.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 259 AM MDT THU SEP 18 2014

THE MAIN WX FEATURE FOR FRIDAY ON INTO THE THE FIRST HALF OF THE
WEEKEND WILL BE THE INTERACTION OF TROUGH/FRONT MOVING OFF THE
ROCKIES...AND THE REMNANTS OF ODILE WHICH ARE SET IN THE MODELS TO
MAINLY PASS TO OUR SOUTH. EXPECTING WINDS TO SHIFT TO MORE SSW THRU
THE DAY FRIDAY AS FRONT SHIFTS EASTWARD. LOOKING FOR BREEZY
CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP WITH POTENTIAL FOR GUSTS NEAR 40 MPH. THIS SET
UP WILL DRAW TROPICAL MOISTURE NORTHWARD INTO THE REGION LATE IN THE
DAY FRIDAY RIGHT THRU SATURDAY NIGHT BEFORE SYSTEM CLRS REGION BY
12Z SUNDAY. MODELS DO DIFFER THOUGH ON AMOUNTS OF QPF EXTENT INTO
THE CWA AND WILL DEPEND ON TIMING AND POSITIONING OF FRONT AS IT
COMES OFF THE EASTERN ROCKIES. HAVE INCREASED POPS TO SHOW FROPA
THRU AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY BFR TAPERING OFF SATURDAY
NIGHT. MOST OF QPF SHOULD REMAIN TO THE SOUTH CLOSEST TO ODILE SO
HAVE HIGHEST POPS THERE. ALSO PUT IN MENTION OF TRW. TEMPS DURING
THIS TIME WILL BE ON A SLOW DOWNTREND WITH INCREASING CLDS/PRECIP
OVER AREA. FRIDAY WILL BE CLOSE TO 90F WITH MOST AREAS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 80S AND SATURDAY INTO THE LOW 80S AT BEST. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
DROP INTO THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S.

THERE ARE TWO SYNOPTIC SCALE FEATURES OF INTEREST DURING THE
EXTENDED PERIOD. ONE IS A FAIRLY INTENSE UPPER TROUGH THAT WILL MOVE
QUICKLY ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES REGION ON SUNDAY
AND ACROSS THE EASTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY MONDAY AND TUESDAY. A
COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH WILL MAKE IT THROUGH MUCH OF
THE FORECAST AREA BY EARLY MONDAY BRINGING COOLER TEMPERATURES. THE
SECOND FEATURE IS A CLOSED UPPER LOW THAT WILL DRIFT EASTWARD ACROSS
THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY TUESDAY AS IT TRANSITIONS
TO MORE OF AN OPEN WAVE. FORCING WITH THIS SYSTEM IN AN INCREASINGLY
MOIST ENVIRONMENT SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
FROM LATE MONDAY THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. AT LEAST MINOR DIFFERENCES
IN MEDIUM RANGE DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE WITH PLACEMENT AND TIMING OF
BOTH SYSTEMS LEADING TO SOME UNCERTAINTY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1215 PM MDT THU SEP 18 2014

LARGE STRATUS DECK TO THE NORTH OF WARM FRONT MAIN FORECAST
CHALLENGE FOR THE COMING TAF PERIOD. EXPECT IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS TO
CONTINUE AT MCK THROUGH THE EVENING WITH ONLY A SMALL CHANCE FOR
CLOUDS BREAKING UP BETWEEN 22 AND 00Z. WHILE LOW STRATUS AND
POSSIBLE FOG WILL REDEVELOP BY 04Z...CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE
AFTER 06Z WHEN WARM FRONT BEGINS TO LIFT NORTH HELPING TO SCOUR
OUT ABUNDANT MOISTURE LINGERING OVER THE AREA.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JRM
SHORT TERM...JN
LONG TERM...JN/BRB
AVIATION...JRM


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