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000
FXUS63 KGLD 091109
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
409 AM MST MON DEC 9 2013

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 236 AM MST MON DEC 9 2013

UPPER FLOW WILL BE NORTHWEST THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL RESIDE OVER THE REGION AS WELL WITH EXCEPTION OF A
WEAK TROUGH OVER EASTERN COLORADO TUESDAY.

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FLOW AND EAST OF THE
ROCKIES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS TODAY. LACK OF MOISTURE WILL
PRECLUDE ANY MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION.  POPS WILL BE NIL TODAY. POPS
FROM TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE NIL AS WELL DUE TO THE
LACK OF SUFFICIENT MOISTURE AS WELL AS SUBSIDENCE.

CURRENT WIND CHILLS STILL SUPPORT THE WIND CHILL ADVISORY SO WILL
ALLOW THAT TO CONTINUE THIS MORNING.

DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL RISE TO THE UPPER TEENS AS SOME WARM AIR
ADVECTION BEGINS THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES TUESDAY SHOULD
MOVE ABOVE FREEZING BY A FEW DEGREES. HOWEVER A COLD FRONT TUESDAY
NIGHT WILL BRING COOLER READINGS ON WEDNESDAY WITH TEMPERATURES IN
THE MID AND UPPER 20S.  LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT
WILL FALL TO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL
FALL TO AROUND 10 ABOVE.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 236 AM MST MON DEC 9 2013

QUIET AND PRECIPITATION FREE WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE
EXTENDED FORECAST. MODELS BEGIN THE PERIOD ON THURSDAY WITH A LARGE
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE ACROSS THE WESTERN UNITED STATES AND
A TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. UNDER THIS UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN...SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW AT THE SURFACE SHOULD OCCUR WITH
WARM AIR ADVECTION. AS A RESULT...GUIDANCE SUGGESTS TEMPERATURES IN
THE LOW 40S TO THE EAST AND NEAR 50 OVER EAST COLORADO. THOUGHT THAT
THIS WARMING MIGHT BE A LITTLE EXTREME CONSIDERING ARCTIC AIR THAT
WOULD NEED TO BE MODIFIED SO MODERATED HIGH TEMPERATURES FROM WHAT
GUIDANCE GAVE.

A WEAK COLD FRONT SHOULD SLIDE THROUGH THE AREA ON FRIDAY. THE GFS
BRINGS THE FRONT THROUGH EARLIER IN THE DAY ON FRIDAY WITH COOLER
TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY AND WARMING ON SATURDAY. THE EUROPEAN MODEL
BRINGS THE COLD FRONT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES
SATURDAY. DECIDED NOT TO DEVIATE MUCH FROM THE ALLBELND EXTENDED
PROCEDURE DUE TO MODEL DISAGREEMENT. IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS COLD
FRONT...MODELS BREAK DOWN THE RIDGE AND BRING AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND INTO THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THAT THIS SYSTEM WILL BE TOO
FAR SOUTH TO BRING THE TRI-STATE AREA ANY PRECIPITATION AND RUN TO
RUN CONSISTENCY HAS BEEN FAIRLY STRONG. THEREFORE...CONTINUED THE
DRY FORECAST.

MODELS BEGIN TO DISAGREE EVEN MORE FOR THE WEEKEND. THE EUROPEAN
SUGGESTS A STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN
UNITED STATES WITH ANOTHER STRONG COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTH. THIS
FRONT COULD MOVE IN FROM THE NORTHEAST. THE GFS DOES NOT SHOW ANY
TRACE OF THIS SOLUTION UNTIL TUESDAY. SINCE THIS IS THE FIRST RUN
THE EUROPEAN MODEL HAS SUGGESTED THIS POSSIBILITY...WILL NOT JUMP ON
THE BANDWAGON AND DRASTICALLY CHANGE WHAT ALLBLEND PRODUCED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 404 AM MST MON DEC 9 2013

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT KGLD AND KMCK THROUGH THE NEXT 24
HOURS. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE REGION. LIGHT
NORTHWEST WIND WILL EVENTUALLY SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST AND WEST.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM MST /11 AM CST/ THIS MORNING FOR
     KSZ001>004-013>016-027-028-041.

CO...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM MST THIS MORNING FOR COZ090>092.

NE...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM MST /11 AM CST/ THIS MORNING FOR
     NEZ079>081.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FS
LONG TERM...RRH
AVIATION...FS