Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 211804

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
1104 AM MST Sun Jan 21 2018

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Tuesday night)
Issued at 237 AM MST Sun Jan 21 2018

Across the Tri State region this morning...skies are cloudy with
temperatures ranging from the upper 20s to the mid 30s...warmest
east. Winds are northerly with some gusts reaching 15 to 20 mph.
Some locales east are starting to see fog develop as well.

For today on into the evening/overnight hours...the main wx focus
will be on the approaching winter storm set to move across the
region. The system is currently moving slowly thru the south-central
Rockies and is expected to push eastward into the Plains region
later this morning. Model track of this storm will take just south
of the CWA during the day...lifting ENE of the area thru 12z Monday.

Based on moisture/temp profiles...the region will see freezing
fog/rain/drizzle develop before a transition over to moderate to
heavy snow. Looking for the transition to occur from west to east
with eastern zones seeing late afternoon/early evening start.

Wind profiles as this system passes still looks good for the region
to see gusts reaching up to 50 mph. This will create blizzard
conditions. Have upgraded the current Winter Storm Warning to a
Blizzard Warning...with a segmented transition. Start in the warning
wording based on expected changeover/timing.

Snowfall is expected to become moderate to heavy at times this
afternoon and evening...and based on latest track...have highest
totals still north of Interstate 70 where 5-8 inches is possible
along with locally higher amounts near 10-12 inches. South of the
Interstate...4-7 inches. A few hundredths of an inch of ice is also
expected before transition to snow.

Going into Monday...morning hours will have central and eastern
zones seeing a continued slow transition to msunny/sunny conditions
as high pressure returns over the region...lasting thru Tuesday

For temps...daytime highs temps today will range from the mid 20s to
mid 30s warmest east. Monday and Tuesday will mainly see 30s for
highs...with some southern locales possibly reaching around 40F.
Overnight lows will mainly range from the mid teens thru the mid
20s...warmest east.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Saturday)
Issued at 300 AM MST Sun Jan 21 2018

Upper ridge axis will move across the central plains Wednesday and
Thursday resulting in dry and warm conditions. Any lingering snow
cover may cause a few areas to see cooler temperatures. Next
trough moves through on Friday with a chance for light snow.
Models have been trending down on amounts which were already light
anyway, so this may not even warrant an advisory with only a light
dusting. It will be windy on the backside Friday night and
Saturday as ridge rebuilds. Saturday will be dry with temperatures
near to slightly below normal.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
Issued at 1014 AM MST Sun Jan 21 2018

IFR to LIFR conditions due mainly to low ceilings are expected at
GLD and MCK with freezing drizzle continuing through the next
couple hours. The transition to light snow will occur between
21-22Z as north winds continue to increase through the afternoon.
Around 22-00Z, expect a transition to light snow with blowing snow
and possible VLIFR conditions with intermittent moderate to heavy
snow through about 08Z. Areas of light snow and blowing snow will
continue after 08Z with visibilities likely the main factor in
keeping IFR to LIFR conditions intact as ceilings beginning to
raise. Improvement in conditions to MVFR or VFR are not expected
until late in the TAF period after 17Z.


KS...Blizzard Warning until 5 AM MST /6 AM CST/ Monday for KSZ001>004-

CO...Blizzard Warning until 5 AM MST Monday for COZ090>092.

NE...Blizzard Warning until 5 AM MST /6 AM CST/ Monday for NEZ079>081.



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