Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 172100

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
200 PM MST Fri Nov 17 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 200 PM MST Fri Nov 17 2017

Strong cold front will sweep through the area tonight bringing
windy conditions and a good chance for light rain and light snow.
Precipitation will spread west to east beginning by mid evening
and continue through the overnight hours, ending by 12z. It will
be mainly rain through 06z, then change to a rain/snow mix or all
snow on the backside of the precipitation shield after 06z.
However, due to warm ground conditions and light precipitation
rates, no accumulation is expected. Windy conditions will more or
less follow the same timeline. There is the potential for the
precipitation to mix down wind gusts of 45-50kts during the
overnight hours with a wind max behind the upper trough axis.

Saturday will clear out early, but continue to be breezy.
High temperatures will be in the upper 40s. Saturday night through
Sunday morning will be the coldest time period associated with
this airmass. Clear skies and light winds will allow temperatures
to drop into the teens and 20s.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through next Friday)
Issued at 200 PM MST Fri Nov 17 2017

Ridge over the Baja region will slowly build northward over the
weekend, then amplify across the Rockies next week. Local area
will see a couple of weak shortwave troughs come over the ridge,
one Sunday night and another Tuesday, but neither will have enough
moisture to work with for precipitation. Temperatures will cool
down slightly behind the second system on Tuesday. As the ridge
amplifies Wednesday through Friday, shortwaves will be shunted
eastward, so dry pattern will continue. First look at the late
week Thanksgiving holiday shows dry conditions and temperatures in
the 60s under the influence of the ridge.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 1030 AM MST Fri Nov 17 2017

VFR expected at both KGLD and KMCK through the afternoon. A weak
front is progressing through the area and is already past KMCK
with light northerly winds. The front will move through KGLD in
the mid to late afternoon with gust westerly winds shifting to the
north and diminishing behind the front. Tonight, second, and
stronger, front will move through and increase the winds once
again during the mid to late evening hours. Those gusty northwest
winds will continue through the overnight and into Saturday
morning. Scattered light rain and snow showers will also develop
behind the front, with a brief period of IFR or MVFR ceilings
possible with the precipitation, ending by 12z.




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