Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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000
FXUS63 KGLD 040346
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
846 PM MST TUE MAR 3 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 835 PM MST TUE MAR 3 2015

FORECAST IS WORKING OUT PRETTY WELL AT THIS TIME. TEMPERATURE
DEWPOINT SPREADS ARE RATHER LARGE IN THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE
AREA. IT MAY TAKE A WHILE BEFORE THE COLUMN SATURATES AND ALLOWS
SNOW TO REACH THE GROUND. SO SLOWED THE ARRIVAL THE SNOWFALL A
LITTLE IN THAT AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 143 PM MST TUE MAR 3 2015

AS OF 2 PM CST...1 PM MST...SKIES ACROSS THE TRI-STATE REGION ARE
PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY. WINDS ARE NORTH AT 15-20 MPH...GUSTING TO
30 MPH. TEMPERATURES ARE STEADY IN THE UPPER 20S TO 30S BEHIND OUR
LATEST COLD FRONT PASSAGE. AT THE SURFACE...AN ARCTIC SURFACE HIGH
IS LOCATED OVER MONTANA...HEADING SOUTHEAST. WEAK LOW PRESSURE HAS
DEVELOPED IN LEE OF THE ROCKIES OVER NEW MEXICO AND SOUTHEAST
COLORADO. ALOFT...PLUME OF RICH MOISTURE IS LOCATED FROM THE PACIFIC
NORTHEAST INTO KANSAS AHEAD OF AN UPPER LOW OFF THE BAJA PENINSULA.
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS LOCATED ROUGHLY FROM SOUTH DAKOTA...WYOMING
INTO NW COLORADO AND UTAH...HEADING EAST.

FOR TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING...MAIN STORY IS THE ANTICIPATED
SNOWFALL. SHORTWAVE TROUGH MENTIONED ABOVE SWINGS THROUGH IN
ADDITION TO ANOTHER PASSING COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED FRONTOGENESIS.
FRONTOGENESIS FIELDS APPEAR MILDLY IMPRESSIVE. SEVERAL HIGH
RESOLUTION MODELS...ALONG WITH MANY GLOBAL MODELS...INDICATE A BAND
OF SNOW INITIALLY DEVELOPING OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO...SPREADING
EAST DURING THE EVENING HOURS. THEN...AS THE NEXT COULD FRONT
TRANSITIONS THROUGH...THE BAND IS FORCED SOUTH. A SECONDARY BAND
DEVELOPS OVER SOUTHERN KANSAS AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVES IN FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. BETWEEN THE TWO BANDS...A SNOW MINIMUM MAY OCCUR BUT
WHERE THIS MINIMUM AMOUNT OF SNOW FALLS IS THE TOUGH QUESTION TO
ANSWER. OVERALL...DID INCREASE POPS AND SNOW AMOUNTS FROM PREVIOUS
RUNS. THE REASON FOR INCREASING SNOW AMOUNTS IS THAT VERY COLD AIR
OVERTAKES THE REGION. SOUNDING PROFILES AND FORECAST GUIDANCE
INDICATE THAT A HIGHER SNOW:LIQUID RATIO WAS NECESSARY. EVEN THOUGH
FORECAST LIQUID AMOUNTS ARE GENERALLY THE SAME...USED A NEAR 20:1
SNOW:LIQUID RATIO FOR THIS EVENING BEGINNING LATE TONIGHT. THIS
LEADS TO 1-2 INCHES OF DRY FLUFFY SNOW OVER NEBRASKA AND KANSAS WITH
2-3 INCHES OF DRY SNOW OVER EAST COLORADO. WITH THIS SNOW...LIGHT
WINDS WOULD INDICATE THAT LITTLE IN THE WAY OF DRIFTING SHOULD BE
ANTICIPATED. ROADS WILL LIKELY BECOME SNOW-COVERED AND SLICK.

SNOW GRADUALLY SLIDES OUT OF THE REGION TOMORROW MORNING. SOME
BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS SHOULD BE OBSERVED FROM NORTH TO SOUTH BY LATE
AFTERNOON. WARMEST TEMPERATURES FORECAST WHERE MOST SUNLIGHT IS
OBSERVED WITH HIGHS REACHING THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S.
ELSEWHERE...FORECAST HIGHS RANGE FROM THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 200 PM MST TUE MAR 3 2015

THE FORECAST DURING THIS PERIOD WILL REMAIN DRY...SO THE FOCUS
IS ON TEMPERATURES.

THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH AXIS MOVES EAST OF THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY
NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN AT THE SURFACE AND LOWS EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING IN THE LOWER SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO. WINDS
WILL BE MOSTLY LIGHT...BUT WILL STILL BRING WIND CHILLS DOWN INTO
THE -10 TO -15 DEGREE RANGE ALONG AND WEST OF THE KANSAS-COLORADO
BORDER.

TEMPERATURES START TO RISE ON THURSDAY AND WILL CONTINUE TO RISE
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE UPPER RIDGE
EXPANDS ACROSS THE WESTERN U.S. AND WESTERLY FLOW RETURNS AT THE
SURFACE AS THE HIGH PRESSURE AREA MOVES EAST. THERE WILL BE
SEVERAL SHORT WAVE TROUGHS EMBEDDED IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
THROUGH REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK AND WEEKEND THAT WILL DO NO
MORE THAN BRING AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS TO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS
REGION. EACH SHORT WAVE TROUGH ALOFT WILL DRAG A WEAK SURFACE
TROUGH ACROSS THE REGION THAT WILL VARY WINDS BETWEEN SOUTHWEST
AND NORTHWEST.

BETWEEN SUNDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT THE OVERALL UPPER PATTERN
BEGINS TO FLATTEN INTO MORE OF A ZONAL FLOW WITH THE GFS AND ECMWF
BECOMING MORE OUT OF PHASE BY THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. THE END
RESULT IS TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO RISE AND CONDITIONS REMAIN DRY
THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 438 PM MST TUE MAR 3 2015

NOT TOO MUCH HAS CHANGED FROM THE 18Z TAF. MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS
IN TIMING AND VISIBILITIES. FOR KGLD...BY LATE EVENING VFR CONDITIONS
WILL BECOME PREDOMINATELY MVFR AS A BAND OF SNOW MOVES INTO THE AREA.
THERE WILL BE OCCASIONAL IFR CONDITIONS WITH THIS SNOW. THE SNOW
ENDS AND VFR CONDITIONS RETURN NEAR 14Z. SOME BRIEFLY GUSTY WINDS
WILL OCCUR THROUGH 18Z.

FOR KMCK...AROUND 04Z...ABOUT AN HOUR SOONER THAN KGLD...MVFR CONDITIONS
WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA. OCCASIONALLY THE VISIBILITIES MAY BECOME
IFR. BY 12Z THE SNOW ENDS WITH MVFR CEILINGS CONTINUING UNTIL 15Z.
AFTER THAT VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF THE
PERIOD. DURING THE LAST SIX HOURS OF THE TAF...NORTHERLY WINDS WILL
GUST TO NEAR 21 KNOTS.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...BULLER
SHORT TERM...RRH
LONG TERM...LOCKHART
AVIATION...BULLER



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