Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 052306
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
406 PM MST Mon Dec 5 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 406 PM MST Mon Dec 5 2016

Quick update to going forecast to add in areas of blowing dust
over the next 4 hrs or so. Focus will be west of Highway 25 where
core of strongest winds are occurring with fropa. No other
changes at this time.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This afternoon through Tuesday)
Issued at 1127 AM MST Mon Dec 5 2016

The primary interest in the short term period is the drop in
temperatures following the initial cold front expected to sweep
quickly through the area this evening. The cold front will bring
colder temperatures and gusty northwest winds, but no
precipitation as the area will be under an area of mid level
subsidence with a dry airmass in place in the wake of a short wave
trough aloft tonight.

Mostly clear skies overnight will turn cloudy through the day on
Tuesday as a mid level short wave trough and associated surface
low deepens and approaches the Southern High Plains from west and
begins to move east of the Rockies. This will set the stage for
potential accumulating snow Tuesday night into Wednesday and
along with another surge of colder air on Wednesday.

Overnight lows tonight will drop into teens and lower 20s with
high temperatures on Tuesday only reaching the upper 20s and
middle 30s.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 144 PM MST Mon Dec 5 2016

The main focus for the long term period will be the winter storm and
arctic air that will impact the region late Tuesday night into
Wednesday. The arctic air will still impact the region Thursday as
well.

Tuesday night and into Wednesday: a broad open wave trough will
begin to push into the CWA from the west. As the evening progresses
snow will start to push into the northwest portion of the region.
This snow will continue to push southeast through the night into
Wednesday. Per the current model runs, snow amounts a trended down a
little with amounts now ranging from 1 to 4 inches. The highest
snowfall amounts are expected in far northwest Kansas, northwest
Colorado and southwest Nebraska. As far as winds, there are periods
of time between 06Z and 18Z Wednesday that could see areas of
blowing snow but current guidance does not support widespread
blowing snow with this storm system. The storm should be completely
out of the region by 21Z Wednesday.

Thursday through Monday: The trough will mainly be east of the
region on Thursday. A weak ridge begins to move in from the west but
quickly weakens and zonal flow dominates the region on Friday.
Saturday will see a quick shortwave trough moving over the region
but no precipitation is expected at this time. Sunday and Monday are
expected to continue being dry across the region.

As far a temperatures, there will be very cold temperatures that
will impact the region. Tuesday night will be in the low to upper
teens, but Wednesday night will be even colder with temperatures
dropping into the single digits with some locations even dropping
into the negatives. These temperatures could potentially cause wind
chills to be -10 to -20 degrees. Thursday night will be just a tad
warmer than Wednesday night but will still be in the single digits.
Wednesday and Thursday high temperatures will only reach the upper
teens to low 20s, so any snow that falls will likely still be on the
ground Thursday. Friday through Monday will see steady increases,
30s on Friday with the remainder of the period in the 40s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 1030 AM MST Mon Dec 5 2016

VFR conditions expected through the forecast period at MCK and
GLD. North northwest winds will increase and become gusty around
sunset with the passage of a surface trough moving through the
Central High Plains region ahead of a cold front that sweeps
across the region by 06Z. Gusty winds will remain through the
early morning hours before decreasing somewhat through the day on
Tuesday. Expect scattered lower clouds immediately behind the
front between 03Z- 07Z, but conditions should remain VFR.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JN
SHORT TERM...LOCKHART
LONG TERM...CLT
AVIATION...LOCKHART



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