Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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000
FXUS63 KGLD 211601
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1001 AM MDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1001 AM MDT TUE OCT 21 2014

HAVE ISSUED UPDATE TO CANCEL THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY AND ADJUST
WORDING IN GOING FORECAST. PAST COUPLE OF HOURS HAS SEEN AREAL
COVERAGE OF FOG SHRINK FROM WEST TO EAST AS DAYTIME HEATING
FINALLY AFFECTING THE CWA. STILL LOOKING FOR PATCHY FOG/PATCHY
DENSE FOG IN SPOTS FOR NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...AND NOW WITH BREAK
IN CLD/FOG DECK...CURRENT TEMPS LOOK ON TRACK FOR CURRENT
FORECASTED HIGHS. REST OF FORECAST IS ON TRACK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 321 AM MDT TUE OCT 21 2014

AS OF 4 AM CDT...3 AM MDT...SKIES ACROSS THE TRI-STATE AREA WERE
CLEAR. WINDS ARE FROM THE SOUTH AT 5-10 MPH. TEMPERATURES HAVE
FALLEN INTO THE MID TO UPPER 40S. A LEE TROUGH WAS LOCATED ALONG THE
FRONT RANGE WITH HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED ACROSS EAST KANSAS. MOIST AIR
ADVECTION WAS ONGOING WITH HIGHER DEWPOINTS MOVING IN FROM THE
SOUTH. DENSE FOG HAS RECENTLY DEVELOPED AT A FEW LOCATIONS IN
SOUTHWEST KANSAS...A TREND THAT SHALL CONTINUE.

FOR TODAY...MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IS DENSE FOG THIS MORNING AND
RESULTING HIGH TEMPERATURE ADJUSTMENTS FROM FOG/STRATUS COVERAGE.
WITH MOIST ADVECTION CONTINUING...ANTICIPATED WIDESPREAD FOG TO
DEVELOP AS SHOWN BY LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION MODEL RUNS. ISSUED A
DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR LOCATIONS WHERE CONFIDENCE IN VISIBILITIES
BELOW ONE QUARTER MILE WAS HIGHEST. SEVERAL PIECES OF GUIDANCE
INDICATE THAT DENSE FOG WILL REACH AS FAR NORTH AS HIGHWAY 36 BY MID
MORNING. NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO BRING THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY
FURTHER NORTH TO INTERSTATE 70 AND BEYOND AS TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN
SLOW TO FALL...DEWPOINTS SLOW TO INCREASE AND WINDS NOT FALLING
BELOW 10 MPH. ADVISORY MAY NEED TO BE ADJUSTED IF HIGH RESOLUTION
GUIDANCE PROVES TO BE CORRECT. FOG SHOULD LIFT LATER THIS MORNING
BUT MAY HAVE LINGERING STRATUS THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WOULD IMPACT THE
HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST SO KEPT COOLER TEMPERATURES FORECAST
ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.

FOR TONIGHT...AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE BEGINS TO ENTER THE REGION.
IT IS POSSIBLE A FEW SHOWERS REACH YUMA COUNTY COLORADO BY THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. OF LARGER CONCERN IS A SIGNIFICANT AXIS OF MOISTURE
POOLING GENERALLY EAST OF A LINE FROM TRENTON NEBRASKA TO HILL CITY
KANSAS. SEVERAL PIECE OF GUIDANCE ARE ADAMANT ABOUT DENSE FOG
DEVELOPING IN THESE LOCATIONS TOMORROW MORNING. THERE ARE A COUPLE
CONCERNS FOR FOG CHANCES...WIND SPEEDS AND STRATUS DEVELOPMENT. WIND
SPEEDS MAY BE JUST HIGH ENOUGH TO PREVENT DENSE FOG DEVELOPMENT BY
KEEPING THE BOUNDARY LAYER MIXED. THIS WOULD LEAD TO A STRATUS EVENT
RATHER THAN DENSE FOG. THERE ARE GUIDANCE DIFFERENCES AS WELL.
SOUNDINGS FOR HILL CITY INDICATE VARYING DEGREES OF A DECOUPLED
ATMOSPHERE. THE GFS WANTS TO KEEP THE ATMOSPHERE LESS DECOUPLED/MORE
MIXED WHILE THE NAM IS MUCH MORE AGGRESSIVE IN DECOUPLING. FOR
NOW...INCLUDED PATCHY FOG MENTION DUE TO CONCERNS MENTIONED ABOVE.

FOR TOMORROW...STILL EXPECTING SHOWERS/STORMS AS A STRONG UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSES THROUGH. SHOWERS SHOULD SPREAD OVER
LOCATIONS ALONG AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY 36 FROM NORTHEAST COLORADO
DURING THE MORNING HOURS. THEN...THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS
ANTICIPATED DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF
HIGHWAY 83. STILL DO NOT EXPECT SEVERE WEATHER DUE TO WIDESPREAD
CLOUD COVER...COOLER TEMPERATURES AND MARGINAL INSTABILITY. RECENT
MODEL RUNS HAVE FORECAST AN EARLIER DEVELOPMENT WITH A QUICKER EXIT.
HAVE SPED UP HIGHEST POPS AS A RESULT.

FOR THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
THE REGION AND BRINGS AN END TO PRECIPITATION CHANCES. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD REBOUND NICELY FOR THURSDAY WITH HIGHS CLIMBING INTO MID 70S
TO NEAR 80 UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 AM MDT TUE OCT 21 2014

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL RESIDE OVER THE PLAINS THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT AND THEN SHIFT EAST SUNDAY WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS MONDAY.  SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS FRIDAY.  A TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO EASTERN COLORADO
SATURDAY AND SHIFT INTO NORTHWEST KANSAS SUNDAY.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL
FOLLOW ON MONDAY.

SUBSIDENCE AND LACK OF MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH
THIS FORECAST.  BOTH THE GFS AND THE ECMWF KEEP PRECIPITATION NORTH
OF THE FA SUNDAY NIGHT AS A TROUGH MOVES THROUGH.  THIS WOULD BE THE
ONLY OPPORTUNITY FOR ANY MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION.

MAX TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE IN THE 80S FRIDAY AND THEN COOL DOWN INTO
THE UPPER 70S SATURDAY.  MAX TEMPERATURES SUNDAY SHOULD RISE TO THE
MID 70S ACROSS MOST AREAS EXCEPT THE NORTHWEST WHERE 70 IS LIKELY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BECOME MORE SEASONABLE MONDAY WITH READINGS IN THE
MID 60S.  MIN TEMPERATURES SHOULD COOL TO THE LOWER TO MID 40S WITH
UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40 MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 531 AM MDT TUE OCT 21 2014

FOG/STRATUS RAPIDLY ADVANCING TOWARDS KGLD AS MOIST AIR ADVECTION
CONTINUES. TRIBUNE MUNICIPAL AIRPORT...KTRB...REPORTING 1/4 MILE
VISIBILITY AND 100 FEET CEILING...SIMILAR LIFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED AT KGLD SOON. FOG/STRATUS SLOWLY LIFTS AND DISSIPATES
AROUND NOON. AT KMCK...EXPECTING SOME STRATUS BUT NOT AS
CONFIDENT SINCE GUIDANCE BACKED OFF FROM AGGRESSIVE STRATUS.
ANOTHER BOUT OF FOG/STRATUS POSSIBLE AT KMCK TOMORROW MORNING AS
A RICH MOISTURE AXIS DEVELOPS ACROSS SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA/NORTHWEST
KANSAS. KGLD SHOULD MISS FOG/STRATUS TOMORROW MORNING. AS FOR
WINDS...SOUTH WINDS INCREASE/BECOME GUSTY AS FOG/STRATUS BREAKS
UP LATER THIS MORNING. WIND GUSTS DIMINISH AROUND SUNSET BUT
ELEVATED WIND SPEEDS PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT AT KGLD.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JN
SHORT TERM...RRH
LONG TERM...FS
AVIATION...RRH


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