Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 230453

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
1053 PM MDT Sat Oct 22 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 106 PM MDT Sat Oct 22 2016

Across the Tri State Region this afternoon...sunny skies abound with
temperatures ranging mainly in the 70s with a few lower 80s in some
locales. Winds are mainly southerly for central and eastern portions
of the forecast area...which coincidentally sits out ahead of a
boundary over eastern Colorado. Western zones are seeing WSW flow
depending on positioning to the aforementioned trough/boundary.

For tonight...this boundary will traverse the area bringing on a
wind shift to west overnight and eventually northerly by 12z Sunday.
Lack of moisture will keep CWA dry overnight. CAA behind this trough
will set temps up overnight to drop into the mid 30s to low
40s...coldest west.

Going into Sunday...surface high pressure building south into the
plains region thru the day...combined with an amplifying H5/H7
ridge...will set the region up for another dry day with above normal
highs ranging in the lower to mid 60s.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday)
Issued at 208 PM MDT Sat Oct 22 2016

Main forecast issue will be temperatures with a secondary issue of
precipitation chances late Tuesday into Tuesday night. Satellite
showing a fairly amplified but still progressive pattern from the
Pacific into North America. The flow is the most amplified over the
Pacific and has increased over the last 24 hours.

Sunday night...surface ridge is passing through the area. The Nam
shows some increase in Blyr relative humidity with other output and
Sref probabilities not as excited about it. Nam has a tendency to
rush this so at this time will leave it out. Winds stay light nearly
all night in the eastern third of the area. Because of that made a
minor tweak down from the blend for that area.

Monday/Monday night...Warm air advection starts. Forecast blend
temperatures look reasonable and left alone. Flow aloft starts
turning toward the southwest as the next trough starts developing
along the west coast. This causes the lee trough to develop and
strengthen. Pressure falls and gradient would indicate breezy or
near breezy conditions developing in the western portion of the
area. Because of this increased the winds a little bit in that area.

For the night a more definite signal by the deterministic and
probability output of an increase in boundary layer moisture. This
is consistent from what the overnight shift mentioned. As a result
of that and collaboration did introduce patchy fog to the last half
of the night.

Tuesday...Patchy fog looks to end by late morning. At this time the
temperatures look reasonable. Left front quadrant starts affecting
the area during the afternoon. At the same time a shortwave trough
starts moving through. This and latest forecast builder blend catch
this fine and do not start rainfall until the next period. Will
leave alone for now.

Tuesday night through Saturday...Above mentioned left front quadrant
and shortwave trough moves across the area Tuesday night. As stated
above, this and the latest forecast blend are consistent in keeping
a slight chance of precipitation in the far east in the evening, and
plan on leaving alone.

After this ridge amplifies over the center portion of the country as
next trough develops/moves along the west coast. There is some
difference between the deterministic output on how this trough
evolves. It looks like the first trough that develops gets kicked
out to the northeast with a rather strong system coming in behind
the first one and setting up camp along the west coast.

However no matter what model works out from Wednesday into Friday
night, the forecast looks dry and excepted the blend. On Saturday
another shortwave, similar to the one moving through Tuesday/Tuesday
night, will bring a slight chance of light rain to the northwest
corner of the area. A warming trend will occur into Friday before
another cool down on Saturday.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)
Issued at 1052 PM MDT Sat Oct 22 2016

VFR expected at both KGLD and KMCK through the TAF period. A cold
front will move through the terminals overnight with surface winds
shifting to the north before dawn.




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