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000
FXUS63 KGLD 032138
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
238 PM MST TUE DEC 3 2013

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 157 PM MST TUE DEC 3 2013

AS OF 3 PM CST...2 PM MST...SKIES ACROSS THE TRI-STATE AREA RANGED
FROM PARTLY CLOUDY TO OVERCAST AS HIGH CIRRUS CONTINUES TO PASS
OVER. TEMPERATURES REACHED THE LOW TO MID 60S ACROSS THE AREA WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT HAS
MOVED IN FROM THE NORTHEAST...KEEPING THINGS ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN
THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA COOLER. WINDS HAVE BEEN FROM THE SOUTH
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AND NORTHEAST BEHIND THE BACKDOOR FRONT. THE
MAIN COLD FRONT WAS FINALLY BEGINNING TO MAKE ITS SURGE INTO
NORTHEAST COLORADO. THE FRONT WAS BLOCKED BY A STRONG LEE TROUGH
CENTERED BETWEEN DENVER AND LIMON. THIS LEE TROUGH IS NOW STARTING
TO MOVE SOUTHEAST FROM LATEST RAP MSL ANALYSIS...ALLOWING THE MAIN
COLD FRONT TO SURGE SOUTH.

FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...THE STRONG ARCTIC FRONT WILL MAKE
ITS PRESENCE FELT AS IT MOVES SOUTH. TEMPERATURES DROP RAPIDLY BY
THE FRONT AS SEEN BY THE 15 TO 20 DEGREE DROPS IN ONE HOUR AT YUMA
AND AKRON COLORADO. IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE FRONT...GUSTY NORTH WINDS
ARE EXPECTED. WINDS NEAR WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA HAVE NOT BEEN
OBSERVED AND MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF ON WIND SPEEDS FROM YESTERDAYS
RUNS. THERE COULD BE SOME GUSTS THAT APPROACH WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA
BUT THIS SHOULD NOT BE WIDESPREAD NOR PERSISTENT. LOW TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT SHOULD BE ABLE TO DROP INTO THE LOW 10S TO LOW 20S EVEN WITH
DENSE CLOUD COVER. FOR PRECIPITATION CHANCES...MOST OF THE
PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER 00Z WITH CHANCES
GRADUALLY INCREASING THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT. MODELS INDICATE THAT THE
ATMOSPHERE GRADUALLY SATURATES THROUGH THE NIGHT...ALLOWING SNOW TO
BEGIN FALLING THIS EVENING OR EARLY TOMORROW MORNING. SOUTHEAST
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD MISS OUT ON THE PRECIPITATION
FOR THE MOST PART BUT COULD SEEM SOME FLURRIES. ACCUMULATIONS WILL
BE LIGHT AS ALL MODELS SHOW LIGHT QPF WITH HEAVIER AMOUNTS WEST
WHERE TERRAIN EFFECTS AND LIFT ARE STRONGER.

FOR TOMORROW...COLD WEATHER WILL CONTINUE WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES LESS
THAN 10 DEGREES WARMER THAN LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT. HIGHS ARE ONLY
ADVERTISED TO BE IN THE LOW 10S OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO TO THE MID
20S OUT NEAR HILL CITY. THIS COULD BE GENEROUS CONSIDERING THAT
DENSE CLOUD COVER AND NORTH WINDS SHOULD PERSIST. CHANCES FOR LIGHT
SNOW CONTINUE IN THE MORNING HOURS BEFORE CHANCES DECREASE ACROSS
NORTHWEST KANSAS AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. CHANCES SHOULD CONTINUE
OVER EAST COLORADO WITH A SLIGHT UPSLOPE COMPONENT AND A BETTER
ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE PROFILE. AGAIN...ONLY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITH LITTLE IMPACT TO TRAVEL. ANOTHER THING TO NOTE ABOUT
TOMORROW IS THAT WITH THE NORTH WINDS AND COLD TEMPERATURES...WIND
CHILLS SHOULD REMAIN IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO THROUGHOUT THE
DAY WITH BELOW ZERO WIND CHILLS POSSIBLE IN EAST COLORADO. NEEDLESS
TO SAY...TOMORROW WILL BE MUCH COLDER WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES ON THE
ORDER OF 20 TO 45 DEGREES COOLER DEPENDING ON THE LOCATION.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 157 PM MST TUE DEC 3 2013

COLD AIR WILL BE THOROUGHLY ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS REGION AND IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. FLURRIES TO LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE MAIN
UPPER TROUGH AND A COUPLE OF PRECEDING SHORT WAVE TROUGHS LIFT
OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES AND ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS REGION.

FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE DRY AND COLD WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN
PLACE AT THE SURFACE IN THE WAKE OF THE UPPER TROUGH AS IT MOVES
QUICKLY TO THE EAST. LATE SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY BRINGS ANOTHER
CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW AS THE NEXT UPPER LOW CENTER MOVES OUT OF THE
SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES AND INTO THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES.

MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WILL BE DRY AGAIN IN THE WAKE OF THE SECOND
UPPER SYSTEM WHILE COLD HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN PLACE...KEEPING
TEMPERATURES ABOUT 20 DEGREES COLDER THAN AVERAGE THROUGH THE
LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1045 AM MST TUE DEC 3 2013

COMPLICATED WEATHER SCENARIO WILL UNFOLD DURING THE TAF PERIOD. A
STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH BOTH TAF SITES...BRINGING
GUSTY NORTH WINDS AND REDUCED CIGS/VIS. AN EASTERN SURGE OF THE
FRONT IS ALREADY THROUGH KMCK WITH THE STRONGER SURGE NOW
ENTERING NORTHEAST COLORADO. AHEAD OF THE FRONT AT KGLD...SOUTH
WINDS HAVE PICKED UP BUT SHOULD RELAX IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. BEHIND THE INITIAL SURGE...CIGS HAVE DROPPED TO LIFR WITH
SOME IFR VIS ACROSS SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA AND THINKING THIS WILL
MAKE IT TO KMCK OVER THE NEXT 2-3 HOURS. LOW CIGS/VIS WILL TAKE
LONGER TO MAKE IT TO KGLD...LIKELY HOLDING OFF UNTIL MAIN SURGE OF
THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH AROUND 00Z OR AFTER. LOW CIGS/VIS AND
GUSTY NORTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE BEHIND THE FRONT MOST
OF THE NIGHT AT BOTH SITES. TOMORROW...HAVE INCLUDED MENTIONS OF
SNOW AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH. SNOW SHOULD NOT
BE HEAVY BY ANY STRETCH...LIKELY RANGING FROM A FEW FLURRIES TO
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RRH
LONG TERM...LOCKHART
AVIATION...RRH