Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

000
FXUS63 KGLD 300818
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
218 AM MDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1208 PM MDT SAT AUG 29 2015

MAIN FORECAST ISSUE WILL BE TEMPERATURES. SATELLITE CURRENTLY
SHOWING AN AMPLIFIED PATTERN CONTINUING FROM THE PACIFIC INTO THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC. AT MID LEVELS...CURRENTLY THE GFS AND UKMET WERE
DOING A LITTLE BETTER THAN THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN. THE GFS HAD THE
BEST DEPICTION OF THE HEIGHT FIELD...HIGHER HEIGHTS/STRONGER
RIDGE...OVER THE REGION. AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS LIKE THE SREF AND
ECMWF ARE DOING BEST ON THE SURFACE WIND AND PRESSURE FIELD. THE
GFS/NAM WERE DOING A LITTLE BETTER THAN THE CANADIAN/SREF ON THE LOW
LEVEL THERMAL FIELD.

FOR TONIGHT...RIDGE AND DEEP DRY AIR MASS REMAIN IN CONTROL ACROSS
THE AREA. THE HEIGHTS DO GO DOWN A LITTLE. HOWEVER...THERE IS LITTLE
TO NO LIFT DESPITE THE MODELS SHOWING A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING
THROUGH. ALSO MODELS SHOW NO INSTABILITY. SO DRY FORECAST CONTINUED.

SO THE QUESTION WILL BE HOW COOL WILL WE GET. WITH GOOD RADIATIONAL
CONDITIONS IN PLACE LAST NIGHT...MOST OF THE AREA DROPPED INTO THE
LOWER AND MIDDLE 50S THIS MORNING. SURFACE HIGH IS STILL NOT TOO FAR
TO THE EAST SO THE EASTERN PORTION WILL HAVE THE LIGHTEST WINDS AND
COOLEST TEMPERATURES WITH A LITTLE STRONGER WINDS IN THE WEST.

AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS LIKE THE HIGHER BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WILL
STAY TO THE EAST OF THE AREA. SO EXPECT ANY STRATUS AND FOG TO
REMAIN TO THE EAST AS WELL.

FOR SUNDAY...HEIGHTS RISE SOME UNTIL LATE IN THE DAY WHEN ANOTHER
WEAK SHORTWAVE TRIES TO MOVE THROUGH. DEEP DRY LAYER REMAINS WITH A
VERY SMALL AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY IN PLACE. HOWEVER...MID LEVEL
TEMPERATURES AND CAP ARE STRONGER SO ONCE AGAIN THE FORECAST WILL
REMAIN DRY.

DEVELOPING PRESSURE GRADIENT AND PRESSURE FALLS AS LEE TROUGH
DEVELOPS AND SURFACE HIGH MOVES EAST COULD CAUSE WINDS TO INCREASE
TO LOW END BREEZY. SOME INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER COULD OCCUR IN THE
FAR WEST BUT DOES NOT LOOK LIKE IT WILL IMPACT HIGH TEMPERATURES.
NEW GUIDANCE SUPPORTS CURRENT FORECAST MAXES AND MADE ONLY MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 217 AM MDT SUN AUG 30 2015

THE BASE OF AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE POSITIONED OVER
THE TRI STATE AREA AND WILL MOVE OUT OF THE HIGH PLAINS REGION
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.  AS A RESULT...CONDITIONS WILL BE DRY DURING THIS
PERIOD WITH THE BEST FORCING AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH. WARM AND
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED...ALTHOUGH A LACK OF STRONG SURFACE WINDS
DUE TO THE POSITION OF THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL PREVENT CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS FROM DEVELOPING.

A LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE OUT OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND ACROSS
THE ROCKIES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...AND THIS PATTERN WILL BRING
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR MOST OF THE TRI STATE AREA
INTO THE WEEKEND. DRY LOWER LEVEL AIR EVIDENT FROM MODEL SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST THAT STRONG STORMS WILL NOT BE LIKELY...BUT LAPSE RATES
ALOFT ARE STEEP ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR CONVECTION TO BE SUSTAINED WITH
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH FORCING. MOST MODELS KEEP THE MAIN
UPPER AND MID LEVEL TROUGH TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE FORECAST
AREA...SO CONFIDENCE IS LACKING OF HAVING ANY STRONG FORCING TO
CAUSE PRECIPITATION.  WITH COLLABORATION WITH SURROUNDING FORECAST
OFFICES...LOWERED PROBABILITIES FOR PRECIPITATION A BIT FROM THE
MODEL CONSENSUS. HOWEVER...IF THE HEIGHT FALLS ARE STRONG ENOUGH
OVER THE TRI STATE AREA...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE.
THEREFORE...KEPT SOME CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS IN THE
FORECAST.

THE NEXT BETTER CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY AS A SURFACE COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE HIGH PLAINS.
TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE
90S...BUT THE FRONT WILL DROP TEMPERATURES INTO THE UPPER 70S TO MID
80S ON SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1126 PM MDT SAT AUG 29 2015

VFR CONDITIONS FORECAST ONCE AGAIN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. LATEST
MODEL GUIDANCE AND OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS INDICATE THE MOISTURE
RESULTING IN FOG/STRATUS SHOULD SPREAD FURTHER WEST THAN
ORIGINALLY ANTICIPATED. HOWEVER...FOG/STRATUS STILL NOT EXPECTED
TO IMPACT TAF SITES ALTHOUGH IT MAY NEAR KMCK. WINDS BECOME
SOUTHWEST BRIEFLY THIS MORNING BEFORE LEE TROUGH OVER NORTHEAST
COLORADO DEEPENS...RESULTING IN STRENGTHENING/GUSTY SOUTH WINDS.
SOUTH WINDS DIMINISH NEAR SUNSET.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...RRH



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.