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000
FXUS63 KGLD 222341
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
541 PM MDT TUE APR 22 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 523 PM MDT TUE APR 22 2014

MAIN CHANGE WAS TO UPDATE FORECAST TO WHAT IS CURRENTLY ONGOING
WITH STORM DEVELOPMENT. STORMS ARE INITIATING AHEAD OF A 700MB
SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND ALONG A SURFACE TROUGH/WARM FRONT AS BOTH
FEATURES MOVE NORTHEAST. THE BEST 700-500MB MOST UNSTABLE CAPE
APPEARS TO BE JUST AHEAD OF THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH WHERE STORMS
ARE CURRENTLY DEVELOPING. AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES THE
INSTABILITY WILL WEAKEN WHILE THE TROUGH AND SURFACE FEATURES MOVE
NORTHEAST. DUE TO THE INSTABILITY WANING HAVE PRECIP. CHANCES
DECREASING THROUGH THE EVENING. SO FAR HAVE ONLY HAD REPORTS OF
SMALL HAIL AND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WITH THESE STORMS. DUE TO THE
NARROW CAPE PROFILE IN THE HAIL GROWTH ZONE DO NOT ANTICIPATE
LARGE HAIL TO DEVELOP WITH ANY STORMS THIS EVENING.

STORM COVERAGE WILL BE LIMITED TO THE EASTERN PART OF THE AREA
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WHERE MID LEVEL LIFT WILL BE. SOME
STORMS MAY ALSO LINGER OVER THE FAR SOUTHERN PART OF THE AREA
WHERE MID LEVEL LIFT WILL ALSO LINGER AND WHERE A SECOND WAVE OF
HIGHER MIXING RATIOS WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE 700MB TROUGH.

THERE IS SOME CONCERN THE WINDY CONDITIONS WILL LAST PAST THE
EARLY EVENING...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF A STRENGTHENING
LOW LEVEL JET.  A FIRST GLANCE AT SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THE WINDS
SHOULD DECLINE BY SUNSET AS THE INVERSION DEVELOPS. HOWEVER WILL
MONITOR INCOMING MODEL DATA TO MAKE SURE THE LOW LEVEL WAA FROM
THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL NOT HINDER THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE INVERSION.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 145 PM MDT TUE APR 22 2014

BUSY FORECAST PERIOD WITH CONSIDERATIONS OF WIND...FIRE
WEATHER...AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIOD.

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS CURRENTLY POSITIONED OVER THE CENTRAL
CONUS...WHICH PROVIDED MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE
TRI STATE AREA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. VIS AND IR IMAGERY INDICATED
SOME HIGH BASED CLOUDS MOVING INTO EASTERN COLORADO...WITH SOME
CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT IN KIOWA AND PROWERS COUNTIES IN COLORADO AS OF
19Z. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATED MOIST AIR BEGINNING TO MOVE INTO
THE COLORADO FRONT RANGE REGION AND ADVECTING TOWARDS THE HIGH
PLAINS.

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN THIS EVENING AS THE
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES TO THE EAST AND A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
BEGINS TO FORM IN EASTERN COLORADO. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
CONTINUE TO BE PRESENT INTO THE EVENING HOURS...WHICH WILL BRING
STRONG GUSTY WINDS ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS BEING
ALONG AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 83. AS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BEGINS TO MOVE
TOWARDS THE HIGH PLAINS...SURFACE WINDS WILL SHIFT SLIGHTLY TO THE
WEST THIS EVENING AND CREATE A CONFLUENCE ZONE IN EASTERN COLORADO.
IT WILL BE ALONG THIS LINE THAT CONVECTION WILL BEGIN SOMETIME THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS. A MODIFIED KDNR SOUNDING SHOWS
SOME INSTABILITY ALOFT...BUT THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE. MODEL DCAPE VALUES BETWEEN 400 AND 1000 J/KG
INDICATE THAT THERE WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG DOWNDRAFTS IN
THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON.

STORMS TONIGHT WILL LINGER IN THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE WARNING
AREA THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...BUT WILL DIMINISH BY TOMORROW
MORNING. MODELS INDICATE A VERY STRONG LOW LEVEL JET WILL BE PRESENT
DIRECTLY OVER THE HIGH PLAINS REGION...WHICH WILL KEEP GUSTY WINDS
THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT. THE BREEZY WINDS WILL KEEP LOW TEMPERATURES
WARMER THAN PREVIOUS NIGHTS...WITH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 50S.

THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS EASTWARD TOMORROW.
GUSTY WINDS IN THE MORNING SHOULD SUBSIDE AS THE SURFACE TROUGH
MOVES INTO THE HIGH PLAINS IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS. WINDS SHOULD
REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. RELATIVE HUMIDITIES IN THE SOUTHWEST
CORNER OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL DROP TO NEAR THE CRITICAL THRESHOLD
FOR FIRE WEATHER CRITERIA...BUT NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH THAT WIND
SPEEDS AND LOW MOISTURE VALUES WOULD BE PRESENT IN THE SAME
LOCATIONS AT THE SAME TIME. THEREFORE...DID NOT ISSUE A FIRE WEATHER
WATCH.

WITH STRONG 50 KT JET AT THE UPPER LEVELS AND 35 TO 40 KTS AT THE
LOWER LEVELS...THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE WITH SOME
POTENTIAL FOR STORMS TO BE SEVERE. CAPE AND SHEAR VALUES LOOK
FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT...MAINLY FOR AREAS EAST OF
HIGHWAY 83. LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY
THREATS. WITH LCL HEIGHTS LOOKING TO BE UPWARDS OF 5000 FT...NOT
CURRENTLY THINKING TORNADOES WILL BE A PROBLEM...ALTHOUGH MIXED
LAYER HELICITY LOOKS FAVORABLE. STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH TOMORROW EVENING.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM MDT TUE APR 22 2014

AN UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.  FLOW WILL BE WESTERLY BEHIND THE TROUGH ON
THURSDAY AHEAD OF A RIDGE THAT WILL BUILD INTO THE ROCKIES THURSDAY
NIGHT.  THE RIDGE WILL SHIFT EAST INTO THE PLAINS FRIDAY.  A
SURFACE TROUGH WILL BE POSITIONED ACROSS NORTHWEST KANSAS WEDNESDAY
EVENING AND THEN SHIFT EAST OVERNIGHT.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN
BEHIND THE TROUGH ON THURSDAY.  A WEAK TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO EASTERN
COLORADO THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS TROUGH WILL SHIFT EAST FRIDAY.

THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL BE TIED TO THE POSITION OF THE FRONT AND
THE DRYLINE WEDNESDAY EVENING. BOTH THE GFS AND NAM SHOW THAT THESE
FEATURES SHOULD BE ALIGNED SOMEWHERE NEAR A MCCOOK TO COLBY TO
TRIBUNE LINE. NORTHWEST OF THIS LINE POPS WILL BE MUCH LESS THAN
EAST OF THE LINE. CAPE VALUES EAST OF THE LINE SHOULD RANGE FROM
1200 TO 2200 J/KG AND WIND SHEAR AROUND 40KTS.  SEVERE WEATHER
SHOULD ALREADY BE IN PROGRESS AND BE MOST WIDESPREAD ALONG AND EAST
OF THE LINE. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD MOVE EAST OF THE FA AROUND
06Z THURSDAY. SUBSIDENCE MOVES INTO THE FA BEHIND THE EXITING TROUGH
LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUES THROUGH FRIDAY. POPS FOR THOSE
TIME PERIODS WILL BE NIL.

SURFACE WINDS BEHIND THE TROUGH MAY REACH WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA
WEDNESDAY EVENING. THIS WILL NEED TO BE CONSIDERED WEDNESDAY AS WE
GET CLOSER TO THE EVENT.  WINDS MAY BE STRONG ENOUGH, ESPECIALLY
NEAR THUNDERSTORMS, TO PRODUCE SOME AREAS OF BLOWING DUST IN THE
EARLY EVENING.

FIRE WEATHER ISSUES BECOME EVIDENT ON THURSDAY WITH RH VALUES
FALLING TO 17 PERCENT IN THE AFTERNOON.  NAM WINDS ARE NOT AS STRONG
AND GFS WINDS ARE CLEARLY SURPASSING THE CRITERIA. AFTER
COORDINATION WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES HAVE DECIDED TO HOLD OFF
ISSUING A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR NOW.  THIS IS PROBABLY THE BEST
SOLUTION TO AVOID CONFUSION WITH FIRE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS FOR
WEDNESDAY.

MIN TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S IN EASTERN COLORADO
TO THE LOWER 40S ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE FA. MIN TEMPERATURES FRIDAY
NIGHT WILL BE IN THE LOWER 40S.  MAX TEMPERATURES THURSDAY WILL
RANGE FROM NEAR 70 IN EASTERN COLORADO TO THE LOWER 70S ELSEWHERE.
MAX TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL VARY FROM 70 TO 75.

IN THE EXTENDED...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...

A RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE PLAINS FRIDAY NIGHT. AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS SATURDAY AND THEN LIFT
NORTH SUNDAY. THE TROUGH WILL THEN MOVE SOUTHEAST AND REMAIN OVER
THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS MONDAY.  THE TROUGH WILL SHIFT
EASTWARD SOME ON TUESDAY BUT THE PLAINS WILL REMAIN ON THE
WRAPAROUND SIDE OF THE SYSTEM. POPS WILL REMAIN NIL THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT. FROM SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY, THERE WILL BE AT LEAST A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION FOR THE FA. SOME SNOW MAY MIX IN WITH
THE RAIN LATE SUNDAY AND MONDAY NIGHTS OVER NORTHERN AND WESTERN
AREAS.

MIN TEMPERATURES WILL START IN THE MID 40S FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHTS AND THEN COOL TO THE LOWER AND MID 30S SUNDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHTS.  MAX TEMPERATURES WILL START AROUND 70 ON SATURDAY AND THEN
COOL TO THE LOWER 60S SUNDAY.  HIGH TEMPERATURES MONDAY AND TUESDAY
WILL BE IN THE MID AND UPPER 50S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 540 PM MDT TUE APR 22 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. FIRST CONCERN
FOR TAFS WILL BE THE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING...WHICH
ARE CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH KTRB WITH SOME LIGHTER DEVELOPMENT IN
EASTERN COLORADO. INCLUDED VCTS FOR KGLD AT 0Z AND FOR KMCK AT 01Z
BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS AND DEVELOPMENT...ALONG WITH WHAT THE HRRR
IS DEPICTING. BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD WITH A SLIGHT SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST CONTINUING TO GUST UP
TO AROUND 30 TO 40 KTS. TOWARDS THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD WINDS
WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST BEHIND A STRONG COLD FRONT.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP NEAR THE TAF SITES TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP TOMORROW WILL BE HIGH BASED AND
SEVERE...CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING DOWNDRAFTS AND LARGE HAIL.
HOWEVER...DO NOT HAVE THE EXACT LOCATION PINNED DOWN THIS FAR OUT
FOR WHERE THESE STORMS WILL INITIATE SO HAVE INCLUDED A VCTS FOR
BOTH TERMINALS...AT 19Z FOR KMCK AND 20Z FOR KGLD. KMCK HAS THE
BETTER CHANCE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TOMORROW WHEREAS KGLD IS
MARGINAL AT THIS POINT BASED ON WHERE THE STRONG COLD FRONT IS
LOCATED BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM MDT /8 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR KSZ001-
     002-013-014-027-028-041-042.

CO...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR COZ090>092.

NE...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM MDT /8 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR NEZ079-
     080.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JTL
SHORT TERM...MK
LONG TERM...FS
AVIATION...ALW