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000
FXUS63 KGLD 231417
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
817 AM MDT WED APR 23 2014

.MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...
ISSUED AT 816 AM MDT WED APR 23 2014

HOLDING THE COURSE WITH CURRENT FORECAST. 12Z NAM IS JUST
ARRIVING...BUT MIXED LAYER CAPES FROM 1000-1500 J/KG ARE STILL
DEPICTED AT 00Z WITH LITTLE INHIBITION...ESPECIALLY EAST OF
HIGHWAY 83. BULK SHEAR 0-6 KM SHOULD BE IN EXCESS OF 35 KNOTS.
CONCERN IS THE LACK OF A SURFACE BOUNDARY OR FOCUSING MECHANISM TO
INITIATE CONVECTION. DIFFERENTIAL CYCLONIC VORTICITY ADVECTION
WILL INCREASE AFTER 21Z...SO IF THERE IS A BOUNDARY LURKING
AROUND...STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP FAIRLY RAPIDLY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 430 AM MDT WED APR 23 2014

TODAY-TONIGHT...A VERY ACTIVE WEATHER DAY EXPECTED. A WEATHER
DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY OVER NEVADA WILL LIFT NORTHEAST INTO EASTERN
COLORADO BY 00Z THURSDAY WITH ANOTHER BATCH OF THUNDERSTORMS
FURTHER EAST AHEAD OF DRYLINE. SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED. VERY
LATE THIS AFTERNOON A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL ENTER YUMA COUNTY.
STRONG 3 AND 6 HOUR PRESSURE RISES ARE NOTED WITH THE FRONT ALONG
WITH A SUBSTANTIAL SFC AND 850 TEMPERATURE GRADIENT MAGNITUDE AS
THE FRONT MOVES SOUTH/SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE WESTERN 2/3 OF THE
AREA. ADD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS TO THE
EQUATION AND CONFIDENCE IN BLOWING DUST MOVING INTO THE AREA FROM
NEBRASKA IS HIGH ENOUGH TO WARRANT A BLOWING DUST ADVISORY. WINDS
BELOW 850MB ALONG WITH VARYING PIECES OF GUIDANCE ALL SHOW
SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 30 MPH WITH GUSTS AROUND 50 MPH. A FEW
HIGHER GUSTS CAN NOT BE RULED OUT GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE
PRESSURE RISE COUPLET.

FOR TONIGHT WINDS EXPECTED TO QUICKLY DECREASE INTO THE 10 TO 20
MPH RANGE AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH A STEADY DECREASE IN PRECIPITATION
CHANCES FROM WEST TO EAST AS SUBSIDENCE AND DRIER AIR MOVE IN.

HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S IN EASTERN COLORADO
WITH LOW TO MID 80S EAST OF THE CO/KS BORDER. LOWS TONIGHT MID 30S
WEST TO MID 40S EAST.

THURSDAY-FRIDAY...BROAD UPPER RIDGING SLOWLY BUILDS OVER THE AREA
AHEAD OF THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM WHICH BY 12Z SATURDAY BE CENTERED
OVER SOUTHWEST NEVADA/SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. NO PRECIPITATION
EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. OTHER THAN SOME GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS
THURSDAY MORNING-EARLY AFTERNOON NOT A WHOLE LOT TO TALK ABOUT.
HIGHS THURSDAY IN THE MID 60S TO LOW 70S WITH MID TO UPPER 70S
FRIDAY. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT UPPER 30S TO MID 40S WITH LOW 40S TO
AROUND 50 FRIDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 430 AM MDT WED APR 23 2014

ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
ON SATURDAY A DEEP TROUGH WILL BE DIGGING INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
WITH A STRONG RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS. SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY THIS
TROUGH WILL RACE ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION INTO THE CENTRAL
HIGH PLAINS AND INTENSIFY BECOMING NEGATIVELY TILTED. RESULTING
SURFACE LOW WILL FORM NEAR THE INTERSECTION OF KS/CO/NE
BORDERS...GRADUALLY MOVING EASTWARD EARLY NEXT WEEK. AS THE COLDER
CANADIAN AIR SURGES SOUTHWARD IN WAKE OF THE LOW...THERE WILL BE A
CHANCE FOR WINTRY PRECIP. GUIDANCE APPEARS TO BE IN VERY GOOD
AGREEMENT...AND RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY IS PRETTY GOOD CONSIDERING
THE TIME RANGE.

SATURDAY...WARM AND BREEZY WITH CHANCE OF STORMS LATE. IT APPEARS
GUIDANCE HAS BEEN TRENDING WARMER BY WAY OF DELAYING THE ARRIVAL OF
COLD AIR. WITH THE ADDITIONAL TIME ON SATURDAY FOR DRY AND WARM AIR
TO ADVECT IN FROM THE SOUTH...FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS MAY DEVELOP.
LATE IN THE DAY THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR STORMS ALONG A WARM FRONT
MOVING NORTH BRINGING WITH IT A SHALLOW TONGUE OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE...THUS RESULTING IN ELEVATED CAPE OVERNIGHT. DO NOT THINK
THERE WILL BE A GREAT CHANCE FOR THIS OVERNIGHT CONVECTION...BUT
WILL LEAVE POPS IN FOR CONSISTENCY.

SUNDAY...BREEZY WITH A CHANCE FOR PRECIP AS LOW MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION FROM WEST TO EAST. GUIDANCE IS SHOWING GOOD AMOUNTS OF
MID-LEVEL MOISTURE WITH THE LOW PRESSURE...BUT WITH SMALL
DIFFERENCES IN LOW PLACEMENT HARD TO PINPOINT THE BEST LOCATION FOR
PRECIP...THOUGH NORTH OF HIGHWAY 36 SEEMS TO HAVE A BETTER CHANCE
THAN FURTHER SOUTH. SUNDAY NIGHT COOLER AND MORE MOIST AIR WILL MOVE
INTO THE AREA WITH SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS. LOWS WILL DIP TO THE MID
30S IN EASTERN COLORADO...AND THERE IS A CHANCE SOME SNOW COULD MIX
WITH THE RAIN.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WINDY. COOLER AND CLOUDY MONDAY WITH CHANCES
FOR RAIN SHOWERS...AND AGAIN A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW MONDAY NIGHT.
TUESDAY PRECIP CHANCES FALL OFF AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN FROM THE
NORTH. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT COULD APPROACH FREEZING...NOT SURPRISING
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR GIVEN THE AVERAGE LOW TEMPS ARE IN THE MID TO
UPPER 30S. BOTH DAYS WILL BE WINDY WITH 40 TO 50 KT WINDS MIXING
DOWN...AND AT THIS POINT BOTH DAYS LOOK LIKE SOLID ADVISORY-LEVEL
CRITERIA /3HR SUSTAINED 30 MPH AND/OR GUSTS TO 45 MPH/ WHILE MONDAY
HIGH WIND WARNING LEVELS /1HR SUSTAINED 40 MPH AND/OR GUSTS 58 MPH/
ARE INSIDE THE REALM OF POSSIBILITY. WHILE PRECIP IS FORECAST OVER
THE WEEKEND...SIGNS ARE POINTING TOWARDS LIGHT PRECIP AMOUNTS /LESS
THAN A QUARTER INCH OVER THE ENTIRE PERIOD FOR MOST SPOTS/ WHICH
MEANS BLOWING DUST IS A CONCERN IF PRECIP CHANCES DO NOT PAN OUT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 430 AM MDT WED APR 23 2014

KGLD...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH 23Z WITH WEST TO SOUTHWEST
WINDS OF 20 TO 30 KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ARE POSSIBLE FROM 21Z-23Z. FROM 23Z THROUGH 05Z A STRONG COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE TERMINAL CREATING WIND GUSTS AROUND
45KTS...POSSIBLY HIGHER. BLOWING DUST IS EXPECTED WITH MVFR VIS
AND CIGS. STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE. AFTER
05Z NORTHWEST WINDS WILL STEADILY DECLINE WITH RAPIDLY DECREASING
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES.

KMCK...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH 03Z WITH A CHANCE OF MVFR
CONDITIONS FROM 04Z-09Z THEN VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FROM 09Z-12Z.
SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 15-20KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS
EXPECTED THROUGH 18Z WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS BELOW 12KTS FROM 19Z-
22Z. FROM 23Z-05Z A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH BRINGING NORTH TO
NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING TO 35KTS OR SO. AFTER 05Z NORTHWEST WINDS
OF 10-15KTS EXPECTED. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE STARTING
AROUND 20Z WITH COVERAGE INCREASING FROM 23Z-03Z. SEVERE STORMS
ARE POSSIBLE. FROM 03Z-07Z PRECIPITATION CHANCES GRADUALLY
DECREASE WITH NO PRECIPITATION AFTER 08Z.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 430 AM MDT WED APR 23 2014

TODAY...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FOR CHEYENNE AND KIT CARSON
COUNTIES OF KANSAS. RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL FALL BELOW 20 PERCENT
ACROSS THE WESTERN 2/3 OF THE AREA WITH KIT CARSON AND CHEYENNE
COUNTIES OF COLORADO EXPERIENCING VALUES BELOW 15 PERCENT.
WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS WILL
COMBINE WITH THE LOW HUMIDITY TO CREATE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BLOW THROUGH THE AREA LATE
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING BRINGING NORTH TO NORTHWEST
WINDS GUSTING 35 TO 50 MPH...POSSIBLY HIGHER. FOR THE RED FLAG
WARNING AREA THE WIND SHIFT IS EXPECTED AFTER 5 PM MDT. FIRE
FIGHTERS AND EMERGENCY PERSONNEL ARE URGED TO KEEP UP TO DATE ON
THE WIND FORECAST SHOULD ANY FIRES DEVELOP.

THURSDAY...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE GENERALLY
SOUTHWEST OF A LINE FROM YUMA COUNTY THROUGH SHERMAN INTO WICHITA
COUNTY. RELATIVE HUMIDITY OF 15 PERCENT OR LESS IS POSSIBLE.
HOWEVER...WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS OF 10 TO 15 MPH ARE CURRENTLY
EXPECTED WHICH IS UNDER THRESHOLDS FOR A HIGHLITE.

SATURDAY...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS
CHEYENNE COUNTY COLORADO AND GREELEY COUNTY KANSAS. IN THESE AREAS
HUMIDITY VALUES AROUND 15 PERCENT WITH SOUTHEAST WINDS INCREASING
INTO THE 20 TO 30 MPH RANGE WITH HIGHER GUSTS.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...BLOWING DUST ADVISORY FROM 5 PM MDT /6 PM CDT/ THIS AFTERNOON TO
     MIDNIGHT MDT /1 AM CDT/ TONIGHT FOR KSZ001-002-013-014-027-
     028-041-042.

CO...BLOWING DUST ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO MIDNIGHT MDT
     TONIGHT FOR COZ090>092.

     RED FLAG WARNING FROM 1 PM TO 5 PM MDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR COZ253-
     254.

NE...BLOWING DUST ADVISORY FROM 5 PM MDT /6 PM CDT/ THIS AFTERNOON TO
     MIDNIGHT MDT /1 AM CDT/ TONIGHT FOR NEZ079-080.

&&

$$

MESOSCALE...MENTZER
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...JJM
AVIATION...99
FIRE WEATHER...99