Area Forecast Discussion Issued by NWS Goodland, KS
000
FXUS63 KGLD 170723
AFDGLD
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
123 AM MDT Sun Mar 17 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Gradual warming trend with above normal temperatures Monday
through Saturday.
- Precipitation chances return late week.
- Potential impactful system next weekend? Much cooler
temperatures a possibility as well.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 110 PM MDT Sat Mar 16 2024
Tonight...high clouds are forecast to increase for locations
generally along and south of the KS/NE border through midnight
before decreasing from north to south as an upper level trough and
its cold front move through. Low temperatures are forecast to be in
the middle 20s to around 30. No precipitation is expected.
Sunday-Sunday night...the 500mb pattern features a rather strong low
pressure system and its associated trough over the east coast with
stronger than normal high pressure over the pacific northwest states
with our area under northerly flow in between the two. A cutoff low
pressure system was spinning over Arizona. A weak cold front moves
through during the late morning, allowing for northerly winds to
gust up to 30 mph in the afternoon. High temperatures cool a few
degrees back into the lower to middle 50s. Low temperatures fall
into the upper teens to lower 20s. No precipitation is
expected.
Monday-Monday night...the forecast area remains under weak northwest
flow aloft, in between low pressure across the east coast and cutoff
low over western Arizona with high pressure centered over Idaho.
Widespread sunshine and warmer temperatures into the middle 50s to
lower 60s are expected with low temperatures in the 30s.
Tuesday-Tuesday night...this mornings GFS/ECMWF/GEM/GEFS models are
advertising the upper low over western Arizona Monday to slowly move
into the four corners area of Colorado by 12z Wednesday. At this
time, the only impact for area is a bit of increasing cloudiness
from the southwest overnight. High temperatures look to be similar
to 24 hours ago with lower 60s to around 70 expected. Low
temperatures fall into the lower to middle 30s.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 121 AM MDT Sun Mar 17 2024
NW flow to split flow looks to be present across the area to start
the extended period Tuesday with predominantly dry conditions
and highs in the 60s to low 70s across the area. Despite the
warmer conditions any fire weather concerns looks to be
mitigated by the light northerly winds present.
Wednesday, the focus will then be on a weak wave across the Oklahoma
Panhandle. Guidance does suggest some moisture return to SW/SC
Kansas; but a little iffy if it can reach into southern portions of
the CWA. For now pops around 6-10% seem reasonable for Graham, Gove,
Wichita and Greeley counties. If moisture is able to make it a
bit further north then showers and perhaps some thunderstorms
would be in the realm of possibility across each of the
respective counties during the evening hours.
Thursday will again see above normal temperatures in the 60s to
low 70s across the area; may need to keep an eye on fire
weather conditions as winds currently look to be breezy gusting
around 25 mph and RH values in the low 20s. However; some
moisture looks to be present which may temper how low RH values
will drop.
Friday and into next weekend, a potentially more active pattern
looks to develop with hazardous weather possible; perhaps multiple
hazards. Deterministic and ensemble data are currently
struggling with the system which may end up being a fairly
tricky forecast as some colder air may be present across
portions of the area. Be sure to keep up to date with the latest
forecasts as this comes into better focus.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 916 PM MDT Sat Mar 16 2024
For KGLD, VFR conditions are expected through the forecast
period. Winds, light/variable becoming northwest 5-10kts by 09z
and continuing to veer northerly 5-15kts by 14z Sunday. Gusts
to 25kts from 18z Sun-00z Mon.
For KMCK, VFR conditions are expected through the forecast
period. Winds, light/variable becoming northwest 5-10kts by 09z
and continuing to veer northerly 5-15kts by 15z Sunday. Gusts
to 30kts from 18z Sun-00z Mon. By 02z Monday, northeast around
10kts.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...Trigg
AVIATION...JN