Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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000
FXUS63 KGLD 240830
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
230 AM MDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 230 AM MDT FRI OCT 24 2014

TODAY-TONIGHT...UPPER HIGH PRESSURE CENTER AND ASSOCIATED RIDGE
CURRENTLY OVER ARIZONA FORECAST TO SLOWLY STRENGTHEN WHILE SLIDING
EAST/SOUTHEAST INTO CENTRAL TEXAS BY 12Z SATURDAY. 850MB
TEMPERATURES WARM NEARLY 10F FROM THURSDAYS VALUES SUPPORTING
AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S. RECORD/NEAR RECORD HIGHS ARE
EXPECTED...SEE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW. LOWS IN THE 40S.

SATURDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT...UPPER HIGH SLIDES SOUTH/SOUTHEAST INTO FAR
SOUTH TEXAS BY 12Z SUNDAY AS UPPER FLOW SHIFTS TO THE SOUTHWEST
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH.  GUIDANCE HAS BACKED OFF ON
ANY NOTICEABLE COOLING FROM YESTERDAYS 00Z MODEL RUNS AND IN FACT
HAS 850MB TEMPERATURES A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER COMPARED TO TODAYS
(FRIDAYS) VALUES. THIS DESPITE AN UNFAVORABLE EASTERLY COMPONENT TO
THE WIND DURING THE AFTERNOON.  WILL SHOOT FOR HIGHS AGAIN IN THE
LOW TO MID 80S...EXCEPTION BEING FLAGLER AREA WHERE MID 70S EXPECTED.
RECORD HIGHS AGAIN POSSIBLE. LOWS IN THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S.

SUNDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT...UPPER TROUGH AXIS SLOWLY REACHES THE NORTHERN
PLAINS TO THE COLORADO WESTERN SLOPE BY 12Z MONDAY WITH FAST
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF CLOUDINESS DURING THE
DAY WITH ONLY SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS COMING INTO AREAS GENERALLY
ALONG/NORTH OF THE KS/NE BORDER. PRECIPITATION CHANCES ALBEIT LOW
LOOK TO REMAIN WELL NORTH/NORTHWEST OF THE AREA AND LIMITED TO AFTER
MIDNIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 70S TO AROUND 80 IN FAR
EASTERN COLORADO WITH LOW 80S REST OF THE AREA. LOWS IN THE 40S
EXCEPT NEAR 50 AT HILL CITY.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 116 AM MDT FRI OCT 24 2014

INITIAL AND ONLY CONCERN IS THE LOW CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION MONDAY
AND MONDAY EVENING. MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE
SPEED AND AMPLITUDE OF THE SYSTEM TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION.
ECMWF HAS DEFINITELY BACKED OFF ITS MUCH DEEPER/STRONGER SYSTEM.
THERE WILL BE SOME DECENT MID AND UPPER LEVEL LIFT AS IT MOVES
THROUGH. HOWEVER...THERE WILL NOT BE MUCH MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH
THE SYSTEM. SO THE 20 TO 30 PERCENT POPS GIVEN TO ME BY THE
CRH_INIT ARE REASONABLE AND MADE NO CHANGES TO THEM.

MODELS DIFFERENCES INCREASE FROM TUESDAY INTO THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY
WITH WHERE THEY PUT THE DEVELOPING RIDGE. NO MATTER WHICH MODEL
YOU USE...DRY WESTERLY FLOW OR RIDGING WILL KEEP THE REGION DRY
THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD. MODELS STILL SHOWING COLD ENOUGH
TEMPERATURES MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT THAT FROST WILL LIKELY
FORM. SO KEPT THE PATCHY FROST THAT INHERITED. ALSO MADE NO
CHANGES TO THE TEMPERATURES DURING THIS PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 230 AM MDT FRI OCT 24 2014

KGLD...VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10KTS
AT TAF ISSUANCE WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AROUND 07KTS BY 17Z
THEN LGT/VRB FOR A FEW HOURS CENTERED AROUND 20Z. BY 23Z LIGHT
EAST WIND VEER TO THE SOUTHEAST BY 03Z AT SPEEDS AROUND 05KTS THEN
SOUTHWEST AND WEST THROUGH 12Z AT SIMILAR SPEEDS.

KMCK...VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. WEST WIND AROUND 07KTS AT TAF
ISSUANCE WILL VEER TO THE NORTHWEST AROUND 08KTS BY 17Z AND
CONTINUE THROUGH 22Z. FROM 23Z THROUGH THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD
VRB WINDS AROUND 03KTS EXPECTED.

&&

.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 230 AM MDT FRI OCT 24 2014

RECORD/NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE POSSIBLE TODAY AT:

BURLINGTON...84 IN 1952

RECORD/NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE POSSIBLE SATURDAY AT:

BURLINGTON...84 IN 1963

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...BULLER
AVIATION...99
CLIMATE...99



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