Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 181050
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
450 AM MDT Mon Mar 18 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Above normal daytime temperatures Today through Saturday,
  returning to near normal levels Sunday.

- 20%-30% chances for showers Friday night-Saturday, 20%-40%
  chance for showers (rain and snow dependent on location)
  Saturday night, rain showers Sunday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 204 AM MDT Mon Mar 18 2024

Upper low is present across the Great Lakes which is causing a cold
front and associated surface high into the CWA. Watching a
corridor of single digit dew points across the eastern portion
of the area which will be the focus for the coldest air of the
night as mainly clear skies and light winds will allow for
radiational cooling to occur. An additional upper level low
across the SW CONUS looks to keep this chilly air short lived as
this will encourage a progressive nature to the Great Lakes low
and will allow our winds to become more westerly during the
day. This along with some subtle downsloping is forecast to
allow high temperatures to rebound into the upper 50s to low
60s across eastern Colorado to the mid 50s across the east which
will still be vicinity of the above mentioned surface high.

Monday night and into Tuesday; low temperatures were actually
raised a few degrees as westerly winds around 10-15 mph look to
be present overnight; also am seeing some hints at some WAA
moving in from the north with a weak surface trough that will
turn winds to the north as we head into the day Tuesday. Upper
level ridging looks to be across the western CONUS as high
temperatures again warm into the mid to upper 60s across the
forecast area. Surface high pressure looks to develop across the
area keeping winds light and variable across the area. Some
upper level moisture looks to be in place which may create some
periods of cirrus across the area.

Tuesday night and into Wednesday; moisture will begin advecting in
from the Gulf of Mexico as our winds turn more easterly and begin
advecting in some of the moisture. Will need to watch for fog and/or
stratus potential during this time period as the easterly winds will
be climatologically favored for this to occur. Low temperatures
are currently forecasted to be in the mid 30s across the area.

Wednesday, another surface high with associated troughing looks
to affect mainly eastern portions of the area resulting in
cooler high temperatures currently forecasted in the mid to
upper 50s across the east versus low to mid 60s across the west.
A weak disturbance then moves across the Oklahoma Panhandle
during the day Wednesday which may create enough lift, with the
moisture in place from earlier in the day, for some showers to
develop during the late afternoon into the evening hours.
Currently minimal rainfall looks to be most likely outcome at
this time. Additional moisture looks to advect up into the
region into Thursday morning as the potential for fog/stratus
returns.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 330 AM MDT Mon Mar 18 2024

Upper low over the southwest will finally kick out across the
southern plains mid week, but too far south to bring precipitation
chances to the local area. Thursday will see another day of mild
and dry conditions with highs around 70. Wind speeds and
relative humidity are currently forecast to remain just shy of
critical fire weather criteria. A fast zonal flow will follow
for most of the CONUS on Friday and Saturday. Models picking up
on some weak embedded waves in the flow with widely scattered
rain and snow showers beginning Friday night and continuing on
Saturday. Impacts from any of this showery activity should be
minimal with no accumulations expected and very light, if any,
QPF. Temperatures remain mild with highs mainly in the 60s. On
Sunday, a large trough will dig into the Great Basin with
downstream height falls over the plains. Will probably manage
one more mild day on Sunday before a cold front ushers in colder
air Sunday night or Monday. Along with the colder air will be a
chance for light snow, but confidence in the details are low at
this time range.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 445 AM MDT Mon Mar 18 2024

VAD wind profiler at KGLD is showing LLWS occurring. Guidance is
not handling this well at all so did opt to include at KMCK as
well since they are in closer proximity to the low pressure
system that is located near the Great Lakes; so meteorological
is plausible. Currently anticipating any LLWS to end around 16Z
or so as the inversion breaks and mixing can resume. Overall
winds look to be relatively light around or less than 10 knots
for the duration of the period. Winds may become a little bit
stronger overnight around 10-13 knots sustained as westerly
downsloping winds ensue. VFR conditions are currently forecasted
for the duration of this TAF period.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Trigg
LONG TERM...024
AVIATION...Trigg


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