Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS
FXUS63 KGLD 290759
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
159 AM MDT SUN MAY 29 2016
Issued at 914 PM MDT Sat May 28 2016
Extended the isolated chances for rain over the west for another
hour or so based on latest radar trends. Weak upper level short
wave trough over the west is helping prolong the storms. In a
couple hours the lift/low condensation pressure deficits will
shift south, so am anticipating the weak storms to end with storm
activity shifting to the south.
Overnight the nose of the low level jet and strong/deep isentropic
lift will cause some isolated to scattered storms to develop south
of Highway 40. These storms will move eastward during the
overnight hours. Based on the low lapse rates, am not anticipating
any severe storms tonight.
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 113 PM MDT Sat May 28 2016
Visible satellite this afternoon shows cu developing across the
entire area but a bit more organized upstream near the Cheyenne
Ridge. This is all being driven by surface heating as upper
heights are actually rising. Latest runs of the hires models
suggest isolated showers/thunderstorms will drift southeast from
the Cheyenne Ridge before dissipating around sunset. Will carry
slight chance pops for northeast Colorado but not sure these will
get much further so left only 10 pops in Kansas and Nebraska
tonight. Some of the models develop precipitation after 12z as a
shortwave trough rotates up from the southwest around the southern
plains ridge, but there is better model consensus during the
afternoon hours for widely scattered development. It will be
moderately unstable by then but deep layer shear will generally
be less than 20kts. A storm or two could briefly pulse up to near
severe limits in that environment but overall the severe threat
will be on the low end for Sunday afternoon.
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Saturday)
Issued at 158 AM MDT Sun May 29 2016
The majority of the extended period is expected to be dry due to a
ridge moving into the region Wednesday night. Based on the GFS and
European models the ridge will stay over the CWA for the entire
period. The only times that could have the possibility of receiving
some precipitation are Wednesday during the day and Saturday night.
On Wednesday before the ridge moves into the region a trough is
moving east past the CWA, this could potentially impact the southern
and eastern portions of the area due to moisture being pulled into
the base of the trough. Instability factors are not impressive
during this time, so opted to keep PoPs out of the forecast for now.
As for Saturday, the ridge is still over the CWA but a frontal
boundary pushes down from the trough in the eastern CONUS and pulls
in some moisture allowing for some potential for precipitation. It
does not look impressive at this time, but included some slight
chances PoPs 00z-12z Sunday. Overall the extended period looks to be
dry and warm.
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)
Issued at 1029 PM MDT Sat May 28 2016
VFR conditions forecast for the TAFs. Light winds will continue
through the TAF period. Storms are persisting over East Central
Colorado this evening, but am still thinking they should end
before reaching KGLD. Am anticipating storm activity for the rest
of the night to be south of KGLD.
Sunday storms may start to develop during the late morning over
the east half of the area, with coverage increasing during the
afternoon. Storm coverage still too sparse to be included in the
TAF at this time.