Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 181719

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
1119 AM MDT Fri Aug 18 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday night)
Issued at 300 AM MDT Fri Aug 18 2017

Today-tonight...dry weather expected with afternoon temperatures
very close to those observed yesterday with mid 80s to low 90s.
Under a clear to mostly clear sky low temperatures tonight in the
upper 50s to low 60s.

Saturday-Saturday night...starting to see signs of monsoonal
moisture return flow per 700-500mb moisture around a building upper
level high over Texas. Shower/thunderstorm chances increase in the
mid to late afternoon generally along and east of the CO/KS border.
Models have been suggesting the last two days that thunderstorm
activity increases during the evening across the eastern 1/3 of the
area with precipitable water values in the 1.5-2.0 inch range. Could
see a small MCS develop for a few hours before moving east/southeast
of the area by sunrise Sunday morning. 850mb temperatures warm
another 5F to 8F across the area supporting high temperatures in the
low 90s to around 100 degrees, hottest in the Hill City area. Have
adjusted highs up a few degrees from superblend. Low temperatures in
the upper 50s to upper 60s.

Sunday-Sunday night...upper flow remains out of the southwest and is
getting better organized with an upper low off the California coast
and upper high over Texas. This will act to channel increasing
monsoonal moisture into the area, mainly during the overnight hours.
At present time precipitation chances during the day look pretty low
as moisture is lacking. An increase in moisture is expected in the
late evening through overnight hours south of the interstate and
east of the CO/KS border per 850-500mb humidity. Precipitable water
values around 1.5 inches so some locally heavy rainfall possible.
850mb temperatures continue to support upper 80s to mid/upper 90s,
hottest in the Hill City area. Low temperatures look to range from
the low 60s west, mid 60s to low 70s elsewhere.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Thursday)
Issued at 300 AM MDT Fri Aug 18 2017

Monday (Solar Eclipse Day): Since this is Day 4 of the extended
period, remember that sky cover forecasts this far out are prone to
large errors. As of this forecast shift, our CWA looks to have
partly cloudy to mostly cloudy skies during the eclipse. Slight
chance of storms in the afternoon over eastern portions of the area.
Temps in the upper 80s to low 90s.

Monday Night-Wednesday: Cold front should push through the area
during this period. Global models differ on timing though. ECMWF is
quicker and stronger with the front bringing it through the area
overnight Monday. GFS is a bit slower and weaker with the front,
sliding it through Tuesday night. Leaned a bit towards the GFS in
temps in the forecast. As for precip, will be largely dependent on
the arrival/position of the front. Only rain free period right now
looks to be during the day Tuesday.

Thursday-Friday: Again, model disagreement during this period leads
to low confidence in the forecast. ECMWF shows upper level ridging
dominating our area with dry conditions persisting. GFS and CMC show
a wetter solution with a series of shortwaves coming across the
area, with high amounts of QPF over the southern third of the CWA.
Forecast reflects the GFS/CMC solution, but this will almost
certainly change as models come into better agreement as we get into
next week.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 1117 AM MDT Fri Aug 18 2017

Vfr conditions are expected through the period. Winds will start
out near 10 knots from the north then shift to the northeast
during the afternoon and decrease by about 5 knots. During the
night the winds will become light and variable before shifting
the south at near 8 knots.




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