Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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000
FXUS63 KGLD 011949
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
149 PM MDT MON JUN 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 149 PM MDT MON JUN 1 2015

RAP 500 MB ANALYSIS INDICATED A SHORTWAVE RIDGE ALONG THE FRONT
RANGE OF COLORADO AND NEW MEXICO WITH A NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH
OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED AVAILABLE MOISTURE OVER THE FRONT RANGE
AND ALONG THE HIGH PLAINS REGION.  VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWED MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE TRI STATE AREA WITH SOME PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
EAST OF HIGHWAY 283.

ALTHOUGH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS IN PLACE...A SURFACE TROUGH ALONG
THE FRONT RANGE WILL CREATE A SURFACE CONVERGENCE ZONE THAT WILL
BECOME MORE APPARENT TOWARDS 00Z TONIGHT ALONG THE FRONT RANGE.
HIRES ARW AND NMM GUIDANCE BOTH DEPICT THE CONVERGENCE ZONE MOVING
EASTWARD INTO THE FORECAST AREA IN THE 3Z TO 6Z TIME FRAME TONIGHT.
HIRES GUIDANCE ALSO SHOWS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED WITHIN THE
MAIN FLOW AS AN UPPER 35 TO 45 KT JET RIDES OVER TOP OF THE
RIDGE...WHICH WILL ACT TO DESTABILIZE AND HELP DRIVE THE CONVECTION
FOR A FEW HOURS TONIGHT.  CAPE VALUES VARY BETWEEN MODELS...WITH
RAP/GFS SHOWING UP TO 1500 J/KG...BUT HIRES ARW/NMM/NAM SHOW 2000
AND 3000 J/KG IN SOME PLACES.  BULK SHEAR VALUES ARE NOT INDICATIVE
OF WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER...HOWEVER A FEW ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS
ARE POSSIBLE.

AFTER THE SHORT WINDOW OF HIGH CAPE VALUES PASS ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA WITH THE SURFACE CONVERGENCE ZONE...CONVECTION SHOULD TAPER OFF
AFTER 9Z.  SHOWERS WILL LINGER IN THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA UNTIL MORNING.  FOG WILL DEVELOP EAST OF HIGHWAY 83
FOR SOME LOCATIONS WITH GOOD SURFACE MOISTURE ADVECTION DUE TO SOUTH
TO SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS...BUT WILL DISSIPATE BY MID MORNING. LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S DUE TO DEW POINTS
IN THE UPPER 50S AND THE BLANKETING CLOUD COVER.

SOUTHERLY ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY...WHICH WILL
ADVECT WARM TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S ACROSS THE TRI
STATE AREA.  WITH WARM SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS IN THE
LOWER 60S...CAPE VALUES WILL BE BETWEEN 2000 AND 3000 J/KG ACROSS
MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA...ESPECIALLY EAST OF HIGHWAY 83.  A
SIMILAR SET UP WILL BE PRESENT FOR EASTERN COLORADO DUE TO THE
SURFACE LEE TROUGH WITH A CONVERGENCE ZONE ALONG THE KANSAS/COLORADO
BORDER.  FORECAST MODELS DO NOT HAVE STRONG CONVECTION
DEPICTED...BUT GIVEN THE SET UP WITH THE CAPE SET UP...STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP IN EASTERN COLORADO FOR AT LEAST SOME OF
THE EVENING HOURS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 246 AM MDT MON JUN 1 2015

AT THE BEGINNING OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD MODELS STILL SHOW THE SAME
PATTEN AS THEY DID THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES GRADUALLY
DEEPENING/AMPLIFYING UNTIL A CUTOFF/CLOSED LOW DEVELOPS TOWARDS THE
END OF THE PERIOD. AT THE SAME TIME THEY SHOW A DOWNSTREAM RIDGE
DEVELOPING. THIS WILL CAUSE A MID/UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER
THE REGION. WITHIN THIS UPPER LEVEL FLOW MULTIPLE SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS... SOME STRONGER THAN OTHERS... ARE ANTICIPATE TO PASS OVER
THE AREA. MEANWHILE... ON THE SURFACE SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BRING LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE UP FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO REGION.

THIS WILL PRODUCE ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY FOR THE TRI
STATE AREA LATER THIS WEEK AND OVER THE WEEKEND. LOOK FOR RAIN
SHOWERS AND CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHS TEMPERATURES HOLDING IN
THE MID TO UPPER 70S RANGE WHILE THE LOW TEMPERATURES DIPS INTO THE
UPPER 50S FOR THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1140 AM MDT MON JUN 1 2015

A SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS WILL BRING CHANCES FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE TRI STATE AREA TONIGHT...BUT
CONFIDENCE AT THIS POINT IS LOW THAT STORMS WILL AFFECT THE
TERMINALS DIRECTLY DURING THE TAF PERIOD. THEREFORE...LEFT THE
MENTION OF STORMS OUT OF THE FORECAST.

CLOUDS WILL GENERALLY INCREASE TOWARDS 6Z TONIGHT WITH LOW
CEILINGS EXPECTED AT KMCK. MVFR VISIBILITIES WILL DEVELOP FOR KMCK
TOWARDS THE EARLY MORNING HOURS BEFORE DISSIPATING BY MID MORNING.

MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL FOR KGLD FOR THE DURATION
OF THE TAF PERIOD.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MK
LONG TERM...BW
AVIATION...MK



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