Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 281714

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
1114 AM MDT WED SEP 28 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday night)
Issued at 216 AM MDT Wed Sep 28 2016

Forecast issues will be temperatures and if there will be a chance
of precipitation at the end of this period. Satellite showing an
amplified flow from the Pacific into eastern North America. Flow
over the country is being dominated by large/slow moving upper low
that is centered near the Great Lakes.

A cold front is located over northeast Nebraska. The Canadian and
Gfs were doing a little better at the mid levels to start out. The
Sref was doing a little better on the surface. The Canadian and Gfs
were starting out best on the low level thermal field.

For today/tonight...Strengthening mid/upper level ridge and dry air
will be in place. As a result, the initial and only detail on how
warm it will get will be how fast the above mentioned cold front
move in from the northeast. All models are pretty consistent in
bringing the wind shift/cooler air from northeast to southwest.
Guidance is showing cooler temperatures east and warmer west which
makes sense and went close to.

Very light wind field in place, especially over the eastern third.
Cooled off the lows a little from the previous forecast as a result
of this.

For Thursday/Thursday night...Pressure gradient and 3 hour pressure
falls increase during the day, especially over the western half. So
should see near breezy to breezy conditions in the western half.
Still should have plenty of sun due to strong ridging aloft and dry
air. The combination of a cool start and upslope/return flow winds
bringing recycled cool air, will make for temperatures 5 to 8
degrees cooler than todays. Will be another cool night but should be
a little warmer due to more wind.

For Friday/Friday night...New model data is consistent in position
of the eastern conus low. Not only is it slow to move east it
actually starts moving it back slowly to the northwest. Comparing
current model run to the previous run, the models are all consistent
in a slower/further west solution. This makes sense since there are
strong ridges on either side of the system, the same jet wind speeds
on either side of it, and there is no kicker to move it. The affect
of this will be to keep higher heights/stronger ridging aloft over
the region

As a result, the air mass remains drier with what mid level lift
there is still out to the west of the area. Deterministic qpf and
Gefs ensemble qpf output also keep the chance of measurable out to
the west of our area. So will keep this period dry for now.

Models are a little warmer this day than Thursday. Am a little
leery of this since system to the east is slow to move and expect
little warm air advection with light upslope winds. Since most
guidance is consistent on this will use a blend for the high

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Tuesday)
Issued at 226 AM MDT Wed Sep 28 2016

High pressure ridge will be centered over the CWA on Saturday with
low pressure both over the Ohio River valley to the east and off the
California coast to the west. The pattern will progress eastward
over the course of the weekend and into the beginning of next week.
The Low will move onshore sometime late Sunday afternoon and begin a
trek eastward through the day on Monday, approaching the CWA as
we head into Tuesday. PoPs remain low through the period as
relatively dry air will be in place as the low approaches. Went
with slgt chc in the northern most portions of the CWA late
Tuesday as the low moves just to the north at this time. There is
a bit of disagreement in the global guidance with regards to
timing but the overall pattern is in acceptable agreement.

High temperatures will be above normal in the upper 70s and lower
80s with the ridge in place Sunday and Monday before cooler air
moves into the central Plains on Tuesday. Highs on Tuesday and
Wednesday will be closer to the lower to middle 70s. Low
temperatures will be mainly in the 40s with a few readings closer
to 50 degrees in the eastern most counties.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
Issued at 1114 AM MDT Wed Sep 28 2016

VFR conditions expected over the next 24 hours. Surface high
pressure over the Great Plains is moving southwest into the area
in the form of a weak backdoor cold front. In addition, a ridge
of high pressure extends across the High Plains. These two highs
will result in clear skies throughout the next 24 hours and
beyond. Some high-resolution guidance indicates fog development
over south central Nebraska. It is possible fog approaches KMCK
but currently don`t see it reaching TAF site. No precipitation
should be anticipated. Light and variable winds likely until south
winds become dominant tomorrow morning as a lee trough develops
along the Rockies.


.GLD Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


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