936
FXUS63 KGLD 091923
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
123 PM MDT Thu May 9 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Light showers are possible today for Eastern Colorado.
  Greater precipitation chances are forecast for Sat/Sun.
  Widespread precipitation is possible, especially along and
  south of Interstate 70. Severe weather is not expected at this
  time.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 122 PM MDT Thu May 9 2024

Through most of the short-term, a 500 mb low pressure system will be
stalled out over the Great Basin. This will send out some weak
shortwaves across the Great Plains that will create enough forcing
to start some precipitation, but not enough for anything organized
or severe. Precipitation is possible this evening and tomorrow
evening, but PoPs remain around and under 25 and in the far western
CWA. Kansas and Nebraska will likely (70% confidence) not see any
measurable precipitation in the next 48 hours.

There is a slight chance (~15-20%) chance that patchy fog could form
across the CWA tonight, around 12Z. The limiting factors will be
northerly winds, currently forecast to be around 5-10 kts, and the
potential for upper-level clouds.

Saturday afternoon and into the overnight hours look to be a
different story as the low pressure system starts moving to the
east. This will provide enough forcing for some more organized
precipitation, including a few thunderstorms. The threat for severe
weather is low, but not 0. CAPE looks to be limited to around 1,000
J/KG and effective shear is about 15-20 kts or less. This could lead
to some pop-up storms that are quickly lived.

A warming trend is expected through the period, with highs reaching
the mid to upper 70s on Saturday. Low temperatures will follow a
similar trend, but generally remain in the 40s throughout the
area.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 323 AM MDT Thu May 9 2024

For the long term, a more active pattern is expected both for
the weekend and going into next week.

The upper cut-off low near the west coast is forecast to begin
moving back into the main flow to the east. This will increase
the synoptic lift across the area and help advect in some more
moisture from the west. With this, shower and storm chances are
forecast to increase during the afternoon and evening hours both
Saturday and Sunday. Saturday will be due to the upper low
getting closer, Sunday due to a broad low pressure system that
will swing through the Plains with general troughing through the
Plains. The severe threat looks to be low both days with
relatively weak flow and shear over the area. Will need to
monitor the timing of any boundaries for any localized
enhancements, or if a break in cloud cover can increase
temperatures and instability. Otherwise, the multiple days of
precipitation could allow for totals above an inch for those who
get the heaviest storms or who see storms both days. This
currently favors along and South of I-70. High temperatures are
forecast to warm into the 70`s both days.

The start of the next week may see near average conditions with
temperatures in the mid to upper 70`s and late chances for
precipitation associated with smaller disturbance moving
through the area. The upper pattern is forecast to have the area
under northwest flow as multiple lows and troughs move around
the CONUS. Will need to keep an eye on Tue/Wed as a stronger
trough may move into the Plains from the north and provide our
next chance at a system though a competing cut-off low near the
Baja Peninsula may compete and keep the better forcing north of
the area.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1205 PM MDT Thu May 9 2024

VFR to borderline MVFR conditions are expected for KGLD and
KMCK. Low level CU has formed over the region and are
occasionally dropping to below 3,000 ft AGL. As the day goes
on, these cloud bases are expected to rise, and by around 19-20Z
confidence is low that MVFR conditions will return. Winds will
generally be from the northwest with occasional gusts up to
about 20 KTS until 21Z. After that, winds will slowing weaken.
There is about a 25% chance that patchy fog may form for an hour
or two around 12Z tomorrow morning.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CA
LONG TERM...KAK
AVIATION...CA