Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 260839

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
239 AM MDT Wed Oct 26 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday night)
Issued at 1220 AM MDT Wed Oct 26 2016 of 590dm upper high resides over southwest
New Mexico with ridge axis extending north-northeast along the
Continental Divide. May see some cirrus from time to time
otherwise clear. High temperatures in the mid to upper 70s with
low temperatures in the upper 30s to mid 40s.

Thursday-Thursday of 590dm upper high slowly moves
east into west Texas during the day as upper trough approaches the
west coast. The upper high holds firm for the overnight hours with
west coast trough moving little. Any cloudiness would be limited
to cirrus level. Will have to monitor areas east of a line from
around McCook to Gove after midnight as boundary layer moisture
increases from the east possibly creating some low clouds and fog.
Afternoon temperatures warm into the upper 70s to low 80s with low
temperatures in the mid 40s to mid 50s.

Friday-Friday night...upper high centered over much of Texas and low
pressure off the northwest coast has the forecast area under
southwest flow aloft. Storm track keeps the better moisture north
and west of the area leaving us dry. High temperatures warm into the
low to mid 80s with overnight lows in the mid 40s to low 50s.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Tuesday)
Issued at 200 AM MDT Wed Oct 26 2016

Conditions through the long term period will remain dry and warmer
than average.

Highs will remain mainly in the 70s with lows mainly in the upper
30s to middle 40s. Tuesday and Tuesday night will be somewhat
cooler, but still above average, with highs in the middle to
upper 60s and lows in the middle 30s to lower 40s. Normal highs
during this period are between 55-60 and normal lows are in the
upper 20s to lower 30s.

The northern position of the jet stream will keep the series of
disturbances moving through the western U.S. and east of the
Rockies mainly north of the forecast area where they will move
across the Northern Plains. A weak short wave trough will move
east of the Rockies on Saturday with a somewhat stronger short
wave trough moving east of the Rockies on Monday. The surface low
that deepens east of the Rockies in response to the upper trough
on Monday moves across the Norther Plains by late Monday. This low
pressure system drags a cold front across the forecast area by
Monday afternoon. This will produce slightly cooler temperatures
in the northwestern portions of the forecast area, but will still
allow the southern and southeastern sections to warm well into the
70s. Tuesday will be 5-10 degrees cooler than Monday as there will
be a cooler airmass in place, but temperatures will remain above
normal for this time of year. Models are hinting at a deeper
trough developing over the west coast by Tuesday that could lead
to a chance of precipitation over the plains around the middle of
next week.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday morning)
Issued at 155 AM MDT Wed Oct 26 2016

For KGLD and KMCK, vfr conditions expected through the period.
Little if any cloudiness expected. Northwest winds near 10kts
today will decrease toward sunset then become southwesterly 5 to
10kts tonight.




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