Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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000
FXUS63 KGLD 011026
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
426 AM MDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 336 AM MDT TUE SEP 1 2015

A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS REMAINING FROM OVERNIGHT THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL KANSAS AND CENTRAL NEBRASKA FIRST THING
THIS MORNING.

THE WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND HIGH
PLAINS TURNS A LITTLE MORE SOUTHERLY AS AN UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS
ALONG THE WEST COAST IN RESPONSE TO A LOW PRESSURE CENTER MOVING
INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WHILE A RIDGE AMPLIFIES DOWNSTREAM
EXTENDING FROM THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS TO THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. AS A RESULT OF THE AMPLIFYING UPPER FLOW...THE SURFACE
TROUGH REMAINING IN PLACE OVER THE FORECAST WILL DEEPEN THROUGH
THE WEEK.

THE RESULT OF THIS WEAKLY AMPLIFYING PATTERN WILL BE CONTINUED
WARM TEMPERATURES WITH A POSSIBILITY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 232 AM MDT TUE SEP 1 2015

AT THE BEGINNING OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD MODELS SHOW A DEEP AND
COLD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE
COUNTRY WITH A COLD LOW FORMING OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST OVER
THE WEEKEND. THE UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO BE OVER OUR AREA AND
STARTS TO MOVE TOWARDS THE EAST AT THE END OF THE WEEKEND.

THIS SETS UP A SOUTH/SOUTHWEST UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVER THE TRI
STATE AREA FOR THE LATER PART OF THE PERIOD. THIS FLOW WILL ALLOW
MOISTURE TO BE ADVECTED OVER THE AREA FRO THE PACIFIC REGION...
MUCH LIKE IT IS NOW. ALSO SEVERAL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL ROTATE
THROUGH IS FLOW. THIS COULD PRODUCE AN ACTIVE PERIOD WITH REPEATED
CHANCES FOR RAINFALL... WITH THE WESTERN HALF TO TWO THIRDS OF THE
AREA HAVING THE BEST CHANCE.

AT THE START OF THE WEEK A COLD FRONT LOOKS TO MOVE INTO THE
AREA. THIS WILL PRODUCE COOLER TEMPERATURES WITH THE HIGHS
ANTICIPATED TO BE IN THE LOWER 80S ON LABOR DAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1140 PM MDT MON AUG 31 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED AT BOTH TAF SITES FOR NEXT 24 HOURS.
NEAR-TERM AVIATION THREAT REMAINS SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS.
OVERALL...DO NOT ANTICIPATE STORMS TO IMPACT TAF SITES. MENTIONED
VCTS AT KGLD WHERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE JUST NORTH AND VCSH AT KMCK
WHERE A MORE STABLE ATMOSPHERE IS LOCATED. IN ADDITION...
THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOW HAS PROVIDED GUSTY WINDS AT KGLD. OUTFLOW IS
APPROACHING KMCK BUT RECENT OBSERVATIONS INDICATE ONLY A WIND
SHIFT WITHOUT GUSTINESS SHOULD BE EXPECTED. DECREASING CLOUD
COVER LIKELY BY LATE MORNING AS DISSIPATING REMNANT CLOUD COVER
SPREADS NORTHEAST. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE DAYTIME CUMULUS
DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE TOMORROW AFTERNOON. SOUTH WINDS RETURN AS A
SURFACE TROUGH EDGES BACK NORTHWEST.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LOCKHART
LONG TERM...BW
AVIATION...RRH


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