Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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000
FXUS63 KGLD 171740
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1140 AM MDT SUN AUG 17 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1114 AM MDT SUN AUG 17 2014

MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO POP FIELD BASED ON LATEST SHORT RANGE
GUIDANCE. FORECAST GENERALLY IN LINE WITH TIMING FAVORING EARLY
AFTERNOON. WITH GOOD INSTABILITY IN PLACE 2000-3000 J/KG ML
CAPE...AND INCREASING SHEER THIS AFTERNOON THERE APPEARS TO BE AN
ELEVATED RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. MOISTURE PROFILES ARE NOT
IDEAL...SO COVERAGE MAY REMAIN ISOLATED-SCATTERED. WENT AHEAD AND
ADDED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WORDING TO THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING
PERIODS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 300 AM MDT SUN AUG 17 2014

UPPER HIGH CENTERED OVER NORTHERN ARIZONA THIS MORNING IS FORECAST
TO SLOWLY MIGRATE NORTHEAST TOWARD THE FOUR CORNERS BY THE END OF
TODAY THEN SLOWLY PUSH EAST INTO NORTH CENTRAL NEW MEXICO BY THE END
OF THE DAY MONDAY AS AN UPPER LOW DIVES SOUTH ALONG THE WEST COAST.
AS THE LOW CONTINUES SOUTH TOWARD SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA THE HIGH WILL
WEAKEN WHILE CONTINUING EAST/SOUTHEAST.

ANOTHER IN A SERIES OF WEATHER DISTURBANCES IS FORECAST TO MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS. ANOTHER CHANCE EXISTS
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...FIRST ALONG THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN
AREAS WHERE A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED THEN ACROSS MOST OF THE
AREA DURING THE EVENING AS A DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH FROM THE
NORTHWEST. ANOTHER CHANCE EXISTS TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT AS
MOISTURE (WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES IN THE 1.25 TO 1.35 INCH
RANGE) CAUGHT IN BETWEEN THE RETREATING UPPER HIGH AND LOW TO OUR
SOUTHWEST IS CHANNELED INTO THE AREA.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.
FOR TODAY 850MB TEMPERATURES WARM ABOUT 4F FROM SATURDAYS VALUES
SUPPORTING READINGS IN THE MID 90S TO AROUND 100. ON MONDAY 850MB
TEMPERATURES ARE SIMILAR OR UP TO 4F COOLER BEHIND A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY AND NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS. CURRENTLY ADVERTISING UPPER
80S TO LOW 90S IN FAR EASTERN COLORADO WITH MID/UPPER 90S EAST OF
THE STATE LINE. FOR TUESDAY SOUTHEAST WINDS DEVELOP AND 850MB
TEMPERATURES WARM A FEW DEGREES. SOUTHEAST WINDS ARENT THE BEST
FOR FULL MIXING POTENTIAL AND THIS IS PERHAPS REFLECTED IN THE MOS
AND BIAS CORRECTED TEMPERATURES WHICH AVERAGE LOW TO MID 90S.
850MB TEMPERATURES WOULD SUGGEST UPPER 90S TO LOW 100S WHILE
PARTIAL MIXING AT 850 SUPPORTS LOW TO MID 90S. HAVE GONE WITH LOW
90S IN EASTERN COLORADO WITH MID TO UPPER 90S EAST OF THE STATE
LINE.

LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT IN THE 60S. FOR TUESDAY
NIGHT A BIT MILDER WITH A FEW READINGS AROUND 70 POSSIBLE IN THE
HILL CITY AREA...OTHERWISE 60S FOR MOST.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 125 AM MDT SUN AUG 17 2014

THERE ARE STILL DIFFERENCES IN THE DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE
OUTPUT BUT THEY ARE MUCH LESS THAN YESTERDAY. IN GENERAL THE
MODELS DO AGREE ON THE OVERALL PATTERN OF HAVING A MEAN WESTERN
TROUGH AND A STRONG RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE
COUNTRY. THIS DOES MAKE SENSE CONSIDERING THE CURRENT
AMPLIFIED/BLOCKY PATTERN WE ARE NOW IN.

THERE ARE TIMING DIFFERENCES...WITH THE ECMWF AND GFS IN MORE
AGREEMENT...WITH THE TIMING/AMPLITUDE OF THE INDIVIDUAL WAVES. THE
GFS IS FASTER AND LESS AMPLIFIED THAN THE ECMWF. NO MATTER WHAT
THOUGH THIS PATTERN LEAVES THE AREA OPEN TO SHORTWAVES ROTATING
THROUGH WITH SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE NEAR OR OVER THE AREA. THE ECMWF
IS A LITTLE WETTER THAN THE GFS.

SO DO LIKE WHAT THE CRH_INIT GAVE ME WITH THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
EVERY DAY UNTIL SATURDAY WHEN IT LOOKS LIKE WE MAY DRY OUT.
HOWEVER COULD SEE SATURDAY HAVING SOME LOW CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
WILL LEAVE SATURDAY DRY FOR NOW SINCE IT IS A WEEK OUT PLUS THE
MODELS ARE SHOWING ENOUGH DRYING TO SUPPORT THE DRY FORECAST. ALSO
THIS PATTERN SUPPORTS THE CONTINUED HOT AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
GIVEN TO ME BY THE INIT. THERE MAY BE A LITTLE COOL DOWN TOWARD
THE END THOUGH. SO OVERALL PLAN ON LITTLE IF ANY CHANGES TO THE
INIT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1139 AM MDT SUN AUG 17 2014

VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AT BOTH KGLD
AND KMCK TERMINALS. MAIN CONCERN IS THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP ALONG KS/CO STATE LINE AND WITHIN VICINITY OF
KGLD...EVENTUALLY INCREASING IN COVERAGE AS DISTURBANCE MOVES
NORTH. SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE FAVORS KGLD FOR NOW...WITH LESS
CONFIDENCE AT KMCK...SO I LIMITED TEMPO -TSRA TEMPO TO KGLD.
GUSTY WINDS AROUND 15-20KT WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON ON EASTERN
EDGE OF SURFACE TROUGH AT KMCK WITH LIGHTER WINDS GENERALLY AROUND
6KT AT KMCK. WILL WILL DIMINISH AT KMCK THIS EVENING WITH LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DR
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...BULLER
AVIATION...DR



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