Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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000
FXUS63 KGLD 270519
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1119 PM MDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM MDT THU MAR 26 2015

TONIGHT...YET ANOTHER WEATHER DISTURBANCE MOVES INTO THE AREA UNDER
FAST NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THIS WEATHER FEATURE (PER 850-500MB
MOISTURE) WILL FAVOR A MIXTURE OF RAIN AND/OR SNOW SHOWERS GENERALLY
EAST OF A LINE FROM YUMA TO GOODLAND AND OAKLEY WITH A VERY SLOW
MOVEMENT TO THE EAST THROUGH SUNRISE FRIDAY MORNING. IN ADDITION
TO THE PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL WILL BE A THREAT FOR SOME FOG PER
BOUNDARY LAYER RH AND LIGHT EAST/SOUTHEAST WINDS. THIS LOOKS TO BE
EAST OF A LINE FROM TRENTON TO NEAR COLBY AND OAKLEY.
HOWEVER...GIVEN AROUND 5F TEMP/DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS HAVE DECIDED
TO KEEP IT OUT OF THE GRIDS AT PRESENT TIME. LOW TEMPERATURES IN
THE MID 20S TO AROUND 30 EXCEPT LOW TO MAYBE MID 30S ALONG AND
WEST OF THE CO/KS BORDER.

FRIDAY...BEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MOVES EAST DURING THE MORNING HOURS
BUT FORECAST AREA WILL BE PLAGUED WITH MID AND HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDINESS. LOOKS LIKE (PER 700MB RH) ANOTHER WEATHER DISTURBANCE
MOVES IN FROM THE NORTHWEST DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS BRINGING WITH
IT INCREASING NORTHWEST WINDS WHERE GUSTS TO 30 MPH POSSIBLE. AHEAD
OF THIS FEATURE WILL BE SOME WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WITH
INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE LAPSE RATES BEHIND IT. THIS FEATURE AND WINDY
CONDITIONS MOVE EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON AND OUT OF THE AREA
SHORTLY AFTER DARK. WONT INTRODUCE ANY PRECIP MENTION RIGHT NOW BUT
ITS WORTH WATCHING. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 60S NORTON AND
HILL CITY WITH UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE
AREA.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 221 PM MDT THU MAR 26 2015

FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO
TRANSITION EAST ACROSS THE PLAINS THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING...WITH
SW FLOW DEVELOPING SATURDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF APPROACHING TROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING. INCREASING WAA WILL ALLOW HIGHS TO
WARM TO THE UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S. LEE TROUGH WILL BE ROUGHLY ALONG
KS/CO STATE LINE...SO DESPITE MARGINAL RH RFW IS NOT ANTICIPATED
BASED ON CURRENT WIND FORECAST.

SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY...TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. TRACK CONTINUES TO BE
UNFAVORABLE WITH BEST FORCING/MID LEVEL MOISTURE WELL NORTH AND
EAST. I COULDNT RULE OUT A SPRINKLE OR LIGHT SHOWER DEVELOPING AS
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES STEEPEN ALONG ELEVATED FRONTAL ZONE. I DECIDED
AGAINST ADDING MENTION DURING THIS FORECAST CYCLE AS MOISTURE
PROFILES CONTINUE TO BE VERY DRY AND CONFIDENCE IN ANYTHING REACHING
THE SURFACE IS LOW. AS FRONT MOVES THROUGH REGION INCREASING
GRADIENT (PRESSURE RISES 10MB+) WILL RESULT IN BREEZY/WINDY
CONDITIONS DEVELOPING  LATE SATURDAY NIGHT SUNDAY MORNING. BREEZY
WINDS WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST MIDDAY SUNDAY AND THERE
MAY BE SEVERAL HOURS (OR MORE) OF RED FLAG WARNING CRITERIA. TIMING
WILL BE KEY AND ITS FAR ENOUGH OUT THAT WE WILL HOLD OFF ON
HIGHLIGHT FOR NOW.

MONDAY-TUESDAY...SHORTWAVE RIDGE MONDAY TRANSITION EASTWARD AND
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS TUESDAY NIGHT.
NORTHERN JET STREAM REMAINS NORTH OF THE REGION...SO HIGHS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE ABOVE NORMAL...WITH INCREASING WAA TUESDAY SUPPORTING
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S/NEAR 80 ONCE AGAIN. GFS CONTINUES TO SHOW A
SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE PASSING A LITTLE FURTHER NORTH MONDAY
NIGHT/TUESDAY...HOWEVER EVEN THIS TRACK CUTS OFF PACIFIC AND GULF
MOISTURE FROM THE REGION...I PREFER TO LEAN TOWARDS DRY FORECAST
DURING THESE PERIODS (ALSO SUPPORTED BY ECMWF).

WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY...ZONAL PATTERN ESTABLISHES ITSELF BY WEDNESDAY
CONTINUING THROUGH THURSDAY....WITH MODELS OCCASIONALLY SHOWING
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS PASSING THROUGH THE PLAINS...ALONG WITH AT LEAST
SOME ELEVATED DAYTIME INSTABILITY. PROBLEM IS THE DEEP DRY AIR MASS
THAT REMAINS IN PLACE...LOWERING CONFIDENCE IN ANY SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...OR ANY PRECIP REACHING THE SURFACE.
GFS/GEFS SHOWS STRONGER SIGNAL...WHILE ECMWF KEEPS CONDITIONS DRY. AT
THIS RANGE IT DOESNT HURT TO KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE MENTION IN
PLACE....THOUGH WE PROBABLY WONT SEE A WETTING RAIN IN ANY CASE.
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE LATE
THURSDAY...WITH MAIN IMPACT ON SENSIBLE WEATHER OUTSIDE THE CURRENT
VALID PERIOD BASED ON CURRENT TIMING. TEMPS ARE TRICKY BASED ON
TIMING OF FRONT AND POSSIBLY OF STRONGER WAA THAT CONSENSUS WOULD
CURRENTLY INDICATE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1119 PM MDT THU MAR 26 2015

WSR88D INDICATES A BAND OF RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO.
BAND IS SLOWLY INCREASING IN COVERAGE...BUT INTENSITY REMAINS
LIGHT. WILL INDICATE VFR CEILINGS AT KGLD. THERE MAY BRIEF
SPRINKLES AT THE SITE...BUT NOT ENOUGH TO LOWER VISIBILITIES OR
CEILINGS INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY. THIS ACTIVITY WILL SLIDE EAST
TRHOUGH 12Z...SO SIMILAR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR AT KMCK. UPSTREAM
OBSERVATIONS SHOW MVFR CEILINGS IN CENTRAL NEBRASKA...AND THIS LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA BY 06Z. WILL
INDICATE LOWER CEILINGS AT KMCK. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE AT BOTH
SITES AFTER 15Z.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...DR
AVIATION...MENTZER


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