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000
FXUS63 KGLD 160536
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1136 PM MDT SAT JUN 15 2013

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 216 PM MDT SAT JUN 15 2013

A RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES WILL KEEP WESTERLY FLOW OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS
TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL BE OVER EASTERN COLORADO SUNDAY.

SHORTWAVES WILL BE COMING OVER THE RIDGE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. SURFACE
CONVERGENCE IN EASTERN COLORADO WILL PROMOTE THUNDERSTORM INITIATION
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN EASTERN COLORADO THIS EVENING. STORMS
WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST INTO NORTHWEST KANSAS. CAPE VALUES WILL RANGE
FROM 1800 TO 2400 J/KG. SHEAR WILL BE AROUND 40KTS. LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WIND WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT THIS EVENING. THE SURFACE
TROUGH IN EASTERN COLORADO WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM
INITIATION SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS THE NEXT SHORTWAVE IMPACTS THE AREA.
STEERING WIND WILL MOVE STORMS SLOWLY EAST INTO NORTHWEST KANSAS.
PLAN TO GO WITH HIGHER CHANCE POPS TONIGHT AND CHANCE POPS SUNDAY.

BOUNDARY LAYER RH INCREASES TO ABOVE 90 PERCENT BEHIND THE
THUNDERSTORMS LATE TONIGHT OVER THE NORTHERN ZONES AND PORTIONS OF
EASTERN COLORADO. EXPECT STRATUS TO MOVE INTO THOSE AREAS WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF SOME PATCHY FOG.

MIN TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL COOL TO THE LOWER TO MID 60S. MAX
TEMPERATURES SUNDAY WILL RISE TO THE UPPER 80S.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 248 PM MDT SAT JUN 15 2013

SUNDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY NIGHT...UNSETTLED/ACTIVE PATTERN WILL REMAIN
IN PLACE THROUGH MIDWEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH OVER CWA SUN
NIGHT AND BAROCLINIC ZONE SETS UP OVER CWA. IN ADDITION TO SURFACE
SUPPORT...WE WILL SEE A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE
AREA THE CWA...PROVIDING PERIODS OF UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT THAT COULD
ENHANCE THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE. BETTER MODEL CONSENSUS IS FOR EASTERN
LOCATIONS SUNDAY NIGHT AS AFTERNOON ACTIVITY TRANSITIONS
EASTWARD...WITH A DRY PERIOD MONDAY MORNING. ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY
SHOULD THEN DEVELOP FROM THE WEST AND THEN MOVE EASTWARD MONDAY
AFTERNOON. BEYOND THAT PERIOD I AM LESS CONFIDENT REGARDING
TIMING/COVERAGE WITH VERY MOIST AIRMASS STILL LINGERING AND DECENT
INSTABILITY IN PLACE...COMBINED WITH CONTINUED UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT. I GENERALLY BROAD-BRUSHED POPS MON NIGHT THROUGH WED
NIGHT...WITH CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE CWA. SOME OF THESE STORMS
COULD BE EFFICIENT RAINFALL PRODUCERS CONSIDERING PWATS IN EXCESS
OF 1 INCH AND SLOW STORM MOTIONS THIS COULD SUPPORT LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN...HOWEVER TO THIS POINT WE HAVE NOT SEEN THIS REALIZED WITH
RECENT RAINS. SEASONAL TEMPS SHOULD RETURN BEHIND COLD FRONT WITH
HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID 80S...THOUGH PRECIP/CLOUDS
WILL HAVE NORMAL LOCAL IMPACTS WHERE THEY OCCUR.

THURSDAY-SATURDAY...DRY CONDITIONS AND ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS RETURN
THURSDAY AS H5 RIDGE BEGINS TO DEEPEN OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...AND
SHORTWAVE RIDGE DEVELOPS NORTH INTO WESTERN KANSAS. SOUNDING ARE
VERY DRY ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA. GFS/ECMWF BOTH SHOW SERIES OF VORT
MAXIMA PASSING THROUGH MEAN FLOW FRIDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY...WITH BEST SUPPORT SAT AS TOP OF RIDGE BEGINS TO FLATTEN.
HOWEVER...ECMWF IS THE ONLY MODEL INITIATING ANYTHING IN OUR NORTH
FRI/FRI NIGHT...WHERE I KEPT 20 POPS IN PLACE. CONSIDERING THE DEEP
DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE AND HIGH LCL/LFC HEIGHTS...IF WE DO SEE
THUNDERSTORMS THEY WILL BE VERY ISOLATED CONSIDERING THE AIRMASS
IN PLACE AND NOT MUCH RAINFALL WOULD BE EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1136 PM MDT SAT JUN 15 2013

VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL AT BOTH TAF SITES FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS. DENSE CIRRUS FROM CONVECTION REMAINS OVER THE AREA WHICH
COULD PREVENT STRATUS DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT. THE BEST CHANCES FOR
STRATUS WILL BE NORTHWEST OF THE TAF SITES WHERE THERE IS SOME
CLEARING PRESENTLY. FOG IS ALSO NOT EXPECTED AS RADIATIONAL
COOLING SHOULD BE MINIMAL EVEN THOUGH GLD RECEIVED DECENT RAINFALL
AND MOISTURE IS PLENTIFUL. WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST AT
KGLD TODAY WHILE WINDS AT KMCK SHOULD REMAIN FROM THE EAST.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AGAIN IN EASTERN COLORADO
AND MOVE THROUGH DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
MODELS ALSO HINT THAT STORMS COULD DEVELOP ALONG A STALLED
BOUNDARY/FRONT LOCATED NEAR KMCK. HAVE NOT MENTIONED TS FOR NOW
BUT A MENTION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED LATER.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FS
LONG TERM...DR
AVIATION...RRH