Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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000
FXUS63 KGLD 141854
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1254 PM MDT MON APR 14 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1252 PM MDT MON APR 14 2014

EARLY AFTERNOON WV IMAGERY AND RAP UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOW TROUGH
EXTENDING FROM GREAT LAKES ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS AND
RIDGE BUILDING OVER WESTERN US. AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS IN
PLACE ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO/WESTERN KS WITH N-NW GRADIENT OVER
KS/NE SUPPORTING GUSTY WINDS OVER OUR CWA. SNOW PACK HAS RETREATED
OVER MUCH OF OUR CWA...WHILE VIS SATELLITE INDICATES IT HOLDING ON
OVER PARTS OF NE COLORADO AND ALONG KS/NE STATE LINE WHERE AROUND
INCHES OF SNOW FELL MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.

ON THE BACK SIDE OF DEPARTING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH H3 JET STEAM IS
MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN PLAINS. STEEP LOW/MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES HAVE
DEVELOPED WITH SHALLOW COOL LAYER AND DAYTIME HEATING AND HAS LED TO
CU FIELD DEVELOPING OVER THE SOUTHERN PART OF OUR CWA. AS NOSE OF JET
MOVES ACROSS CENTRAL NEBRASKA THERE MAY BE ENOUGH FORCING ALONG WITH
THIS WEAKLY UNSTABLE MID LAYER FOR A FEW SPRINKLES TO MOVE INTO THE
NORTHEAST CORNER OF OUR CWA...OTHERWISE WE ARE ONLY LOOKING AT A
PERIOD OF MID LEVEL CU OVER OUR CWA THIS AFTERNOON. IF THERE IS A
BETTER SHOWER WE COULD SEE A FLURRY INSTEAD OF SPRINKLE
THROUGH...BUT I DIDN`T SEE A REASON TO GET THAT CUTE CONSIDERING
CONFIDENCE IS ALREADY LOW ON PRECIP REACHING THE GROUND IN OUR NE
CWA.

ANOTHER HARD FREEZE IS EXPECTED TONIGHT...THOUGH THERE WILL BE SOME
MODERATION OF THE AIR MASS ALOFT AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST AND
W-SW WINDS DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT.

MONDAY...CONTINUE MODERATION OF THE AIR MASS IS EXPECTED WITH
DAYTIME HIGHS REACHING SEASONAL VALUES IN THE 60S ACROSS THE CWA.
SNOW PACK COULD STILL IMPACT LOCATIONS IN THE NORTH...HOWEVER WITH
SW WINDS COMING FROM SNOW FREE LOCATIONS WE SHOULD SEE A QUICK
MELTING OF SNOW. MAIN CONCERN FOR MONDAY WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR RED
FLAG CONDITIONS WITH WINDY CONDITIONS DEVELOPING EARLY IN THE WEST
AND GOOD MIXING SUPPORTING LOWER TD VALUES ACROSS THE SOUTH.
MODEL OUTPUT GENERALLY SUPPORTS A DECREASING TREND IN THE WEST IN
THE AFTERNOON AS GRADIENT SHIFTS EAST...SO THERE MAY ONLY BE A
SMALL WINDOW FOR WIND/RH CROSSOVER. OF COURSE THERE IS ALSO THE
QUESTION OF WHETHER FUELS WILL BE CURED AFTER RECENT PRECIP
(ESPECIALLY OVER LOCATIONS WITH LINGERING SNOW PACK). WITH TOO
MUCH UNCERTAINTY I DECIDED AGAINST ISSUANCE OF FIRE WEATHER WATCH
AT THIS TIME.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 242 AM MDT MON APR 14 2014

THE THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY PERIOD WILL START OUT WITH AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE TRI-STATE AREA.  THE BEST CHANCES LOOK TO BE
OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA WHERE THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL BE
AHEAD OF THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.  DESPITE HIGH TEMPERATURES
AROUND 40...WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS INDICATE THE PRECIP. WILL BE
SNOW.  THE FAIRLY WARM TEMPERATURES FOR SNOWFALL SHOULD ALLOW THE
SNOW TO BE WETTER THAN NORMAL FOR THE AREA.  SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE
AREA DO NOT INDICATE ANY CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY EXCEPT IN THE LOWEST
100 MB OR SO WHICH WOULD KEEP SNOWFALL RATES ON THE LIGHT SIDE.  THE
WARM GROUND TEMPERATURES AND LIGHT SNOWFALL RATES SHOULD ALLOW THE
SNOW TO MELT AS IT FALLS SO DO NOT ANTICIPATE MUCH MORE THAN AN INCH
OR SO OF ACCUMULATIONS OVER THE EAST HALF WITH LESS TO THE WEST.
THURSDAY NIGHT MODELS DISAGREE WITH HOW FAST THE TROUGH WILL MOVE
EAST OF THE AREA...BUT GENERALLY AGREE THE TROUGH WILL BE EAST OF
THE AREA BY MIDNIGHT.

BEHIND THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH A SHORT WAVE RIDGE WILL MOVE OVER THE
AREA...BRINGING A WARM FRONT INTO THE AREA FRIDAY.

OVER THE WEEKEND THE SHORT WAVE RIDGE MOVES EAST WITH A SPLIT UPPER
LEVEL FLOW DEVELOPING BEHIND IT.  AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD
OVER THE GREAT BASIN WITH A TROUGH ALSO DEEPENING OVER THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST.  AHEAD OF THE SPLIT UPPER LEVEL FLOW A SHORT WAVE TROUGH
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA BRINGING A LOW CHANCE FOR SOME RAINFALL
WITH IT.  BEHIND THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH A WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA.

TEMPERATURES FOR THE PERIOD WILL START OUT BELOW NORMAL THEN WARM TO
20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL BY THE START OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1133 AM MDT MON APR 14 2014

LAYER OF CU 3000-5000KFT AGL HAS DEVELOPED NEAR GLD WITH WEAKLY
UNSTABLE LAYER ASSOCIATED WITH DAYTIME HEATING...AND A SECOND AREA
OF CU ASSOCIATED THE WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE OUT
OF NEBRASKA OVER KMCK. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR WITH
THESE CLOUDS CLEARING AROUND 00Z WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.
NW WINDS GUSTING TO 25KT AT BOTH TERMINALS WILL DIMINISH AROUND
SUNSET. WINDS SHOULD SHIFT TO THE WEST THEN SOUTHWEST WITH LEE
TROUGH BEGINNING TO BUILD OVERNIGHT...THEN INCREASE FROM THE WEST
TUESDAY MORNING. EXPECT GUSTS AT KGLD AROUND SUNRISE TUESDAY TO
25KT...POSSIBLY HIGHER. AT KMCK...WINDS WILL LIKELY INCREASE
OUTSIDE THE CURRENT TAF PERIOD.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...JTL
AVIATION...DR






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