Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 160834

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
234 AM MDT Sat Sep 16 2017

Issued at 314 PM MDT Fri Sep 15 2017

Isolated storms have developed along the dry line east of Highway
83. Lift along the dry line will continue to strength through the
rest of the afternoon and into the early evening. As the sun sets
and instability lessens, storm activity will end.


.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 226 PM MDT Fri Sep 15 2017

For this afternoon, conditions have led to an elevated fire
threat, but the needed 3 hour criteria for winds and relative
humidity values are not expected, therefore no Red Flag Watches or
Warnings are in effect.

Aloft, an upper level trough is moving through the northeast
towards Wyoming. Currently, drier conditions are moving into our
area. Looking at visible satellite imagery we see the majority of
the CWA is mostly sunny as a result. This will change overnight,
as a cold front will be pushing through our area, increasing
cloudiness and lowering our temperatures. Additionally, with the
passage winds will shift from the southwest to the east-northeast,
and some areas can expect gusts up to 30 knots.

Come Saturday, we will get a nice break from the warm high temps
we have been having, with highs ranging from the low 70s near 80

Through Saturday, showers and storms are not expected. Precipitation
chances will start to build back up Saturday evening.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Saturday)
Issued at 233 AM MDT Sat Sep 16 2017

The start of the extended period continues to have southwesterly
flow influencing the region. Expect a quiet Tuesday with afternoon
high temperatures reaching the middle 80s to the lower 90s.

For the rest of the period, the models are showing a deepening upper
level low over southwestern Canada that looks to rotate 2 strong
longwave troughs through the region, one on Wednesday and the other
on Friday. Surface cold fronts associated with these troughs should
reduce the temperatures to normal levels and bring the possibility
of precipitation and gusty winds, mainly on Friday and Saturday.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night)
Issued at 1131 PM MDT Fri Sep 15 2017

VFR to IFR conditions forecast for the TAFs. Cold front is
beginning to move into northwest Yuma County and has moved through
KAKO. Have seen a couple gusts close to 40 KTS with the frontal
passage. Due to the TAF sites being further from the low level jet
than KAKO, am thinking the winds should be less; plus models show
a the low level jet being slower anyway over the sites. Frontal
passage continues to be in the 8-9z timeframe. As the front moves
through, wind gusts will rapidly increase from the north. The
stratus will lag some behind the front. Was initially doubtful of
IFR ceilings, but locations upstream in Central Nebraska show IFR
ceilings already. The IFR ceiling will be only a few hours at
either site after the frontal passage then raise to MVFR. By late
morning the stratus will be gone and winds will lighten. Timing
of the transition to MVFR is a bit tricky but should occur by 13
or 14z.




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