Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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000
FXUS63 KGLD 032040
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
240 PM MDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1252 PM MDT TUE MAY 3 2016

ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON...THE PASSAGE OF THE
SHORTWAVE THIS MORNING IS YIELDING SUNNY TO MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES...TEMPS IN THE U50S THRU THE L60S AND A NORTHERLY WIND
AVERAGING 10-20MPH. AREAS SEEING DAYTIME CUMULUS THAT DEVELOPED OVER
THE PAST COUPLE HOURS ARE THE LOCALES MOSTLY SEEING THE LOWER RANGE
OF TEMPS.

GOING INTO THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS...AREAS SEEING CLOUD
COVER AT THIS TIME WILL SEE IT DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET ALLOWING FOR
CLEAR CONDITIONS TO ENSUE FOR THE OVERTIME PERIOD. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE...AIDED BY STRONG AMPLIFIED H5 RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES WILL
BEGIN TO DOMINATE THE WX INTO TUESDAY.

FOR TUESDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE INTACT FOR THE DAYTIME HOURS AND A
GENERAL WNW FLOW THRU THE MID LEVELS...DOWNSLOPE WARMING AND CLEAR
SKIES WILL GIVE THE CWA AN ABOVE NORMAL DAY FOR TEMPS WHICH IN TURN
WILL BE THE START OF A WARMING TREND.

FOR TEMPS...OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE U30S WEST THRU THE
LOWER TO MID 40S EAST. DAYTIME HIGHS FOR TUESDAY WILL REACH WELL
INTO THE MID 70S FOR ALL AREAS.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 240 PM MDT TUE MAY 3 2016

SURFACE AND UPPER RIDGING WILL BUILD INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS
AT THE BEGINNING OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. DURING THIS PERIOD...850 MB TEMPERATURES
WILL RISE FROM THE UPPER TEENS INTO THE MIDDLE 20S C. AS A
RESULT...AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB FROM THE MIDDLE 70S
WEDNESDAY INTO THE MIDDLE 80S FRIDAY.

THE NEXT MAJOR WEATHER PRODUCER ENTERS THE PICTURE THIS WEEKEND AS
THE UPPER RIDGE MOVES EAST AND IS REPLACED BY AN UPPER LOW THAT IS
CURRENTLY OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST. BOTH GFS AND ECMWF MOVE THE
SYSTEM SLOWLY OVER THE AREA SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY WITH SEVERAL
SHORT WAVE TROUGHS ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LOW. WHILE THE
EXTENDED MODELS ARE FAIRLY SIMILAR IN STRENGTH AND TIMING OVER
THE WEEKEND...SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES DEVELOP BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL BRING THE BEST
CHANCE AT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
STORMS WILL EXIST SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS A DRYLINE SETS UP OVER
EASTERN COLORADO DURING THE DAY AS THE UPPER SYSTEM MOVES OUT ONTO
THE PLAINS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1124 AM MDT TUE MAY 3 2016

FOR BOTH KGLD/KMCK...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH
SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS GIVING WAY TO SKC BY 00Z-01Z WED. FROM 18Z-
21Z...BKN025 POSSIBLE. WINDS NORTHERLY 10-20KTS THRU 00Z-01Z THEN
WNW AROUND 10KTS. BY 13Z-14Z WED...BACK TO NW AROUND 10KTS.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JN
LONG TERM...DLF
AVIATION...JN


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