Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 230851

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
151 AM MST Fri Feb 23 2018

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 153 PM MST Thu Feb 22 2018

Precipitation has left the area. So the main issue to deal with will
be freezing formation and how dense does it get. Clouds will clear
out gradually. At the same time the winds will become light and
variable. Some locations received some precipitation but not a lot
of the area. Air mass is already cold and moist. So expect fog to
develop as the clouds clear out.

However even though the high resolution output indicates that fog
will form they differ on exactly where it will develop first and
where the lowest visibilities will be. Went with a blended guidance
approach. I have patchy freezing fog developing mid to late evening.
Then I have areas across the entire area from then through mid
morning on Friday. There looks like it will be dense but do not know
exactly where. So will included patchy dense.

Temperatures will be tough due to variable amount of cloud cover.
Went ahead and used the forecast blend.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Thursday)
Issued at 151 AM MST Fri Feb 23 2018

Dry and warmer weather is expected to start off the extended period.
Southwest flow develops over the region on Monday as an upper trough
digs into the west coast. The warm and dry conditions in place may
raise concerns for fire weather Monday afternoon for the southern
portion of the region when RH values of 15 to 20 percent will be
possible. However, southerly winds are not impressive at this time.

The upper trough heads towards the desert southwest on Tuesday as a
cold front approaches the region. This disturbance brings a slight
chance of light snow to the forecast on Tuesday night. Dry
conditions return for the remainder of the period as the trough
makes its way east on Wednesday and Thursday.

The warmest day of the long term looks to be Monday with highs in
the mid 40s to upper 50s. This is followed by a decrease into the
upper 30s to mid 40s by Wednesday, then a return to the 40s and low
50s on Thursday. Low temperatures should be in the teens and 20s
throughout the period.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
Issued at 1030 PM MST Thu Feb 22 2018

Initial Conditions: At 06Z, conditions ranged from VFR in northeast
Colorado to widespread MVFR-LIFR stratus and patchy fog in northwest
Kansas and southwest Nebraska.

06Z TAF Period: Challenging forecast. Light/variable or calm
winds will prevail through early to mid afternoon. GLD and MCK
are located on the W/NW periphery of a large swath of IFR/LIFR
ceilings and MVFR/IFR fog extending from central KS into portions
of northwest KS and southwest NE. With mostly clear skies, and
lingering snow on the ground just N and NW of Goodland, it appears
likely that stratus/fog will continue to expand west/nw across the
region. LIFR conditions associated with very low ceilings or
dense freezing fog will be possible, particularly between 09-15Z.
Stratus/fog are expected to gradually lift/scatter to VFR by late
morning/early afternoon (AOA 18Z). Light/variable winds will
become ESE at 15-20 knots by the end of the TAF period (~00Z Sat).


KS...Winter Storm Watch from this evening through Saturday afternoon
     for KSZ001>003.

CO...Winter Storm Watch from this afternoon through Saturday
     afternoon for COZ090.

NE...Winter Storm Watch from this afternoon through Saturday
     afternoon for NEZ079>081.



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