Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 210832

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
132 AM MST Tue Feb 21 2017

Issued at 857 PM MST Mon Feb 20 2017

Just completed an update. Change made was to lower the mins a
little, especially in the eastern portion of the area. Otherwise
forecast is in good shape.

UPDATE Issued at 533 PM MST Mon Feb 20 2017

Winds have decreased below 10 mph so cancelled the Red Flag


.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 147 PM MST Mon Feb 20 2017

Latest upper air analysis shows the trough from yesterday
continuing  east across the Plains. Behind the trough a corridor
of very dry air follows. Further west a short wave ridge was also
moving east. Water vapor quickly increases west of the approaching
ridge axis. At the surface northwest winds have been gusting up
to 45 MPH across much of the Tri-State Area late this morning,
with wind speeds gradually slowing in the afternoon.

Tonight northwest winds will quickly become light in the early
evening then turn to the southwest as a surface high pressure moves
through.  Behind the surface high winds will gradually turn back to
the west.  Due to the clear sky and the cooler, drier air mass, lows
will be cooler than the last couple of nights.

Tuesday warmer air returns behind the surface high.  Highs will
exceed records for the day. For some locations this will be as
much as six degrees warmer than record values based on the
current forecast. West winds will be light to breezy, with the
stronger winds over the northern half of the Tri-State Area. The
breezy winds and low relative humidity values may lead to critical
fire weather conditions in Yuma County. See fire weather section
for further information. For records see climate section below.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Monday)
Issued at 132 AM MST Tue Feb 21 2017

Friday: GFS/ECMWF differ slightly on strength of system as it
transitions eastward Friday morning. ECMWF shows broadly closed H7
low over our northern CWA allowing for lingering light snow possibly
into the afternoon period Friday. Amounts would be minimal if ECMWF
were to verify (additional dusting to 1" in our north). GFS is
faster and further northeast, and shows very little precip potential
during the day Friday (maybe our far north/northeast).

Besides precip chances, this variance in track also results in a
difference in surface pattern as GFS shows WAA in our southwest and
slight moderation of temps aloft. ECMWF on the other hand keeps
persistent cloud cover over our north. On one end of guidance highs
may get above freezing, the other we may not see highs out of the
20s. I leaned colder in our north and kept PoPs in place mainly in
the morning as a compromise. I also bumped up winds as BL winds and
surface gradient should support sustained winds around 20 mph. These
winds could be underdone depending on mixing. This would likely be
limited in post frontal environment of ECMWF, while GFS may support
higher winds.

Saturday-Monday: Westerly flow transitions to the southwest, with
rising heights, and a dry air mass reestablishing itself (as would
be expected in this flow). With frontal zone lingering near our CWA
Saturday and Sunday we should see near seasonal normals, though
there is still the possibility for stratus to develop along/north of
front which could throw off current highs. Guidance has trended both
dry regarding PoPs and warmer by Monday, with lee trough shifting
further into our CWA support of better WAA. GFS/GEM temps aloft
Monday are very similar to the past few warm ups (near 17C at H85)
and if that verifies we could be looking at highs Sunday in the 70s.
ECMWF temps aloft are not quite as high, but based on current trends
and slight bias corrections 60F seems like a good starting point
at this range.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
Issued at 1026 PM MST Mon Feb 20 2017

Vfr conditions are expected through the period. Southwest winds
near 7 knots will shift to west/west northwest around 18z at 10 to
12 knots. Late in the afternoon those winds will shift to the
south to southwest and decrease to less than 10 knots.


CO...Red Flag Warning from 11 AM this morning to 5 PM MST this
     afternoon for COZ252.



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