Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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629
FXUS63 KGLD 251739
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
1139 AM MDT WED MAY 25 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1139 AM MDT Wed May 25 2016

With low cloud deck still impacting central portions of the
forecast area...have lowered expected high temps by a few degrees
to account for the lack of decreasing areal coverage. No other
changes at this time.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday night)
Issued at 242 AM MDT Wed May 25 2016

Upper flow will be southwest today/tonight ahead of an upper low
that will move into the 4-corners areas Thursday.  The upper low
will move into eastern Colorado Thursday night. The low then moves
into northwest Kansas Friday and into north central Kansas Friday
night. A surface trough will be over northwest Kansas today and
tonight.  A surface low will organize over southeast Colorado
Thursday.  The surface low will move into northwest Kansas Friday
and then into north central kansas Friday night.

Subsidence will move into the fa this morning behind the exiting
wave.  By this afternoon, some lift will develop over an axis of
instability where there will be a slight chance of storms.
Any storms will move northeast with subsidence returning to the fa
early this evening.  Late this evening another shortwave will
produce some lift across the northern fa for storms overnight.
Storms will be possible early Thursday and continue Thursday night
and Friday.  Dynamics and moisture favor the northwest fa during
this time. By Friday night the focus for storms shifts over the
eastern fa as the low moves east. Shear and cape are both supportive
of severe storms through Friday.  Shear and cape drop off Friday
night so that there should be no severe threat and that thunder will
be isolated with showers the dominant type of weather.

STRATUS AND PATCHY FOG HAVE MOVED INTO THE FA EARLY THIS MORNING.
NAM BOUNDARY LAYER RH POINTS OUT THE EXTENT OF THE STRATUS ACROSS
THE FA. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE BY MID MORNING.

Max temperatures should reach the lower 80s today.  Cooler readings
can be expected Thursday ranging from the lower 70s in eastern
Colorado to the lower 80s in the eastern fa. Max temperatures Friday
should range from the mid 60s to the mid 70s.  Min temperatures
should be in the lower to mid 50s with some upper 40s in eastern
Colorado.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Tuesday)
Issued at 242 AM MDT Wed May 25 2016

At the start of the extended mid level ridging will allow for
periods of dry conditions heading into Saturday. Starting Saturday
night and going through the end of the extended period, expect an
increase chance of rain showers and thunderstorms as shortwaves
will move around the base of approaching upper level low over the
Pacific Northwest/Northern Rockies area.

Temperatures will be in the near to above normal range during the
extended period with highs mainly in the mid to upper 70s, with some
areas reaching the lower 80s. Overnight lows will range in the 50s
with some upper 40s in Northeastern Colorado.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
Issued at 1128 AM MDT Wed May 25 2016

For KGLD...Mainly VFR conditions after 20z-21z. MVFR skies thru
20z-21z...and 3-5sm -shra br from 04z-08z Thursday.
Winds...Variable from the NW thru 21z then SSE 5-10kts...becoming
ENE around 5kts by 08z Thursday as front approaches.

For KMCK...Mainly VFR conditions...w/ some MVFR from 04z-09z
thursday w/ 3-5sm -shra br. Winds ESE around 10kts thru 00z
Thursday...then ENE 5-10kts.


&&

.GLD Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JN
SHORT TERM...FS
LONG TERM...BW
AVIATION...JN



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