Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 160601

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
1101 PM MST Fri Dec 15 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 208 PM MST Fri Dec 15 2017

Not too much to talk about through tomorrow. Currently a lot of sun
with temperatures ranging from the upper 50s to the lower 60s. Low
relative humidities over much of the area. Fortunately the wind has
stayed below 20 mph or we would be having fire weather issues.

Westerly winds decrease through the night before they start shifting
to the north later tonight as a weak front moves through. With low
dewpoints and no significant cloud cover, any drop off in the wind
will allow temperatures to drop rapidly. So tended to go toward the
colder guidance.

Cold front moves through early in the day. Winds will shift to the
northeast at 10 to 20 mph as cooler air sags into the area. High
temperatures will cool into the upper 40s to the middle 50s which is
still above normal.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday)
Issued at 315 PM MST Fri Dec 15 2017

Both the 12Z GFS/ECMWF indicate that an upper level low, currently
centered over central/southern portions of the Gulf of CA, will
de-amplify and lift NE through TX (Sat) into the Southern Plains
(Sat night/Sun morning). Previously, it appeared that a brief
window of opportunity for very light precip would exist over
portions of the Tri-State region Sat night/Sun morning. However,
guidance now indicates dry conditions, presumably in assoc/w
subsidence on the western periphery of the aforementioned wave
as it lifts NE into the Southern Plains. With the above in mind,
will remove mention of precipitation Sat night/Sun.

A rather chaotic transition will occur with regard to the synoptic
pattern over the lower 48 next week.

Extended (6-10 day) outlooks from the climate prediction center
continue to indicate below normal temperatures and above normal
chances for precipitation late next week into next weekend. This
is a fair characterization of the general trend. However, with an
already complex/progressive synoptic pattern expected to evolve
into one characterized by split flow over the Intermountain
West/Rockies and possibly a closed (perhaps cut-off) low over the
Desert SW, it is important to note that a significant amount of
uncertainty persists w/regard to forecast specifics, particularly
with regard to precipitation. At this time, will indicate dry
conditions through Wed, and will maintain a 30% chance of
precipitation on Thu. Expect temperatures to continue to swing,
with highs in the 30s on Sun, rebounding through the 50s Mon-Wed,
then trending to near/below normal by the end of the week.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night)
Issued at 1101 PM MST Fri Dec 15 2017

VFR condtions should continue, though conditions may begin to
decrease around the end of the TAF period. Winds should shift to
the northeast behind a front Saturday afternoon.




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