Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 241030

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
430 AM MDT Fri Mar 24 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday night)
Issued at 427 AM MDT Fri Mar 24 2017

Main focus will be active weather into tonight. Satellite showing an
amplified pattern from the eastern Pacific into North America.
Strong slow moving closed slow spinning over southeast Colorado will
be the main weather make early on.

For Today/tonight...In short have kept the current highlights.
However, there are caveats/uncertainties with that part of the
forecast. First the wind. Models have backed off on the winds. This
may be because the low is a little slower to move into the area and
takes a slightly more southerly path. Am not certain of the lower
winds since the models did not have surface low associated with the
upper system strong enough. Day shift will have to assess again.

Am also having doubts about precipitation coverage, especially
further south and east in my area, and the phase in the far west.
First model output has had the band associated with the overnight
precipitation too far south and east and consequently does not have
the dry slot far enough north and west. Of all the output, the Hrrr
appears to have the best handle on this. This keeps the brunt of the
precipitation in the northwest third to half of the area with very
little precipitation in the far south and east.

Models also have the temperatures not warm enough and dewpoints not
high enough, especially in the far west. Currently Limon is at 32
degrees with light snow, and Flagler is at 42 degrees. The thing
that could change this is the current and forecast
thunderstorms/instability going on. Thunderstorms could lower the
temperatures to start snow. Wpc has far western Kit Carson and
Cheyenne counties with the highest snowfall totals which fits with
our current forecast. Also forecast soundings would support the
phase change is this area as well.

So kept the current snowfall forecast for the far west. Also since
it does not look like it will get cold enough further east per
temperature forecasts and forecast soundings, took the rain line a
little further west. Also per the note above, currently we are still
getting isolated thunderstorm development, and elevated cape
forecasts would support that across the entire area. So have kept
isolated thunderstorm mention across the entire area through the day.

Precipitation should end near or shortly after midnight.

For Saturday/Saturday night...Did not have a lot of time to deal
with this period due to ongoing active weather. Models/blend bring
in a low chance of precipitation after midnight Saturday night. That
looks reasonable with good model agreement. Also kept temperatures
for this period as well.

For Sunday/Sunday night...Again not a lot of time to spend on this
period. Also not a lot of model agreement on this period. The blend
gave me high chance to likely pops. At this time cannot dispute
that due to lack of time and model disagreement. Definitely looks
like the area will get something just not sure of the chance. As a
result did not change any of the grids the blend gave me.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Thursday)
Issued at 239 AM MDT Fri Mar 24 2017

The main story during the extended period is rain chances due to a
potentially strong system heading towards the Plains midweek.
Temperatures remain near to above normal for much of the region.

The period starts out dry on Monday with an upper ridge between
Sunday`s departing wave and the incoming system to the west. A warm
day with highs in the low/mid 60s is anticipated.

A deep upper trough develops over the west coast and moves into the
desert southwest Monday night. The trough closes off and tracks east
across northern Texas and Oklahoma through Thursday. This system
brings rain shower chances to the region Monday night through the
end of the period. Wednesday night and Thursday, chances are
confined to the southern and eastern portions of the area as weak
ridging builds in behind the exiting system. There are still
discrepancies with how this system will evolve and precipitation
chances depend on its track. Will continue to monitor.

Temperatures cool off slightly Tuesday through Thursday, with highs
in the upper 50s to low 60s. Lows stay in the 30s throughout the


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
Issued at 1129 PM MDT Thu Mar 23 2017

Showers and thunderstorms will move across the area for the rest
of the night in advance of incoming storm system. Mvfr conditions
will develop at both sites through 12z. Precipitation will become
more widespread after 12z. From 12z to into the evening hours,
mvfr with occasional ifr conditions are expected. Winds will shift
to the north and northeast and increase into the 20 to 35 knot
range with gusts up to 50 knots, mainly at Kgld. Around 00z the
winds will decrease to near 20 knots with some gusts up to 30


KS...High Wind Warning until 6 PM MDT /7 PM CDT/ this evening for

CO...High Wind Warning until 6 PM MDT this evening for COZ090>092.

     Winter Weather Advisory until noon MDT today for COZ090>092.



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