Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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000
FXUS63 KGLD 272012
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
212 PM MDT THU AUG 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 211 PM MDT THU AUG 27 2015

A SHORTWAVE MOVING DOWN THE EAST SIDE OF THE RIDGE WILL IMPACT THE
FA TONIGHT.  THE RIDGE WILL REBUILD OVER THE ROCKIES FRIDAY. A
SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE FA TONIGHT.  HIGH PRESSURE
WILL MOVE INTO THE PLAINS ON FRIDAY BEHIND THE EXITING SHORTWAVE.

THE MODELS SHOW THE MOISTURE WITH THE INCOMING SHORTWAVE WEST OF THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE MOVING NORTHEAST WITH THE H7 TROUGH.  MOISTURE
ACROSS THE FA APPEARS NOT AS FAVORABLE THIS EVENING. IN ADDITION,
THE SURFACE TROUGH IS ALREADY HALFWAY ACROSS THE FA. DUE TO THIS,
PLAN TO GO WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WEST OF THE TROUGH AND CHANCE
POPS EAST.  POPS WILL DECREASE TO SLIGHT CHANCE OVER THE EASTERN FA
AFTER 06Z.  FRIDAY WILL BE DRY WITH NIL POPS DUE TO SUBSIDENCE AND
DECREASING MOISTURE.

MIN TEMPERATURES TONIGHT SHOULD COOL TO THE LOWER 60S. MAX
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY SHOULD RISE TO THE MID AND UPPER 80S.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 206 AM MDT THU AUG 27 2015

THE RIDGE SITUATED OVER THE HIGH PLAINS ON SUNDAY WILL GRADUALLY
TRANSITION EAST AND NORTHEASTWARD AS WE HEAD INTO MONDAY. THIS WILL
ALLOW THE UPPER FLOW PATTERN TO TRANSITION TO A MORE WESTERLY TO
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AND USHER IN MONSOONAL MOISTURE. THERE IS GOOD
CONFIDENCE IN DAILY RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES OF 20 TO 30
PERCENT ESPECIALLY IN THE WESTERN AND NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
CWA AS A THETA E BOUNDARY WILL SET UP FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST
ACROSS THIS REGION. THE BEST POPS WILL FOCUS ALONG THIS BOUNDARY.
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE HOWEVER THE CAPE AND SHEAR INDICES
ARE VERY WEAK TO MARGINAL AT BEST. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF AGREE WITH
REGARDS TO THE OVERALL PATTERN BUT THE LATEST RUNS DO NOT AGREE AS
WELL AS SOME OF THE PREVIOUS RUNS. OVERALL THE PATTERN WILL BECOME
AMPLIFIED AND FAVOR RIDGING IN THE EASTERN US WITH A DEEP TROUGH
DEVELOPING OVER THE WESTERN STATES AND THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST.
TEMPERATURES DURING THIS PERIOD WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY ABOVE THE
SEASONAL AVERAGE WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S AND LOWS
IN THE LOW TO MID 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1131 AM MDT THU AUG 27 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT KGLD AND KMCK THROUGH THE NEXT 24
HOURS. INCREASING MID LEVEL CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO THE REGION. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT BOTH SITES THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. DYNAMICS MOVE OUT OF THE AREA AFTER 06Z WITH DECREASING
CLOUDS.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FS
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...FS


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