Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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000
FXUS63 KGLD 292329
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
529 PM MDT MON JUN 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 324 PM MDT MON JUN 29 2015

JUST COMPLETED AN UPDATE TO ADD THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS
EVENING. LOOKS TO BE A SURFACE/CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY RUNNING DOWN
THE CENTER OF THE FORECAST AREA FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. ALSO
A SHORTWAVE AND JET IN THE NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT HELPING TO
MAINTAIN STORMS. AT THIS TIME...STORMS ONLY LOOK TO LAST THROUGH
MID EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1250 PM MDT MON JUN 29 2015

SHORT TERM FORECAST CONCERN ARE THE HIGH TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY.

DAYTIME TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE HOT ON
TUESDAY AS THE UPPER HIGH PRESSURE AREA OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN
WEST AND ROCKY MOUNTAIN REGION EXPANDS EASTWARD OVER THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS REGION AND SURFACE FLOW TURNS SOUTHWEST AHEAD
OF A DEEPENING LEE TROUGH. THERE WILL BE A WEAK QUICK MOVING SHORT
WAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THAT TRACKS
ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AROUND MID DAY ON TUESDAY WITH NO
MORE THAN AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 145 PM MDT MON JUN 29 2015

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THAT WAS IN PLACE OVER THE WESTERN THIRD OF
THE CONUS WILL BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN FOR THE START OF THE LONG TERM
FORECAST PERIOD...AND A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO SLIDE
SOUTHWARD OUT OF THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL PLAINS
ALONG THE FRONT RANGE OF MONTANA.  TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE QUIET...BUT
A SURFACE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
WILL APPROACH WEDNESDAY AND BRING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TOWARDS THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
NAM/GFS/CANADIAN MODELS ALL HINT AT THE PRESENCE OF A 700 MB JET
COMING INTO THE AREA...WITH THE NAM BEING THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH
SPEEDS AT 35KT+.  MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW PLENTY OF DRY AIR TO START
THE DAY WEDNESDAY WITH SURFACE BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING TO AROUND 700
MB...SO WIND GUSTS ASSOCIATED WITH MID LEVEL JET COULD MIX TO THE
SURFACE TO BRING A BREEZY DAY.  CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
NOT EXPECTED WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITIES STAYING ABOVE CRITICAL
THRESHOLDS.

STORMY WEATHER CHANCES WILL CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY AS ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST
STATES.  GFS/NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE PRECIPITABLE WATER
AMOUNTS ABOVE ONE INCH...WITH THE GFS PRECIPITATING OVER AN INCH AT
THE SURFACE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.  CAPE VALUES BETWEEN 1000
AND 2000 J/KG AND 0-6 BULK SHEAR VALUES BETWEEN 40 AND 50 KTS FOR
MANY LOCATIONS IN NAM SOUNDINGS COULD INDICATE THE NEXT BIGGER
CHANCES FOR SEVERE WEATHER.  HOWEVER...THE ECMWF/CANADIAN FORECASTS
SEEM TO BE LESS EXCITED WITH SURFACE PRECIPITATION.  BEING THAT THE
UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS STILL OUT OF THE NORTHWEST DUE TO THE DECAYING
RIDGE ALOFT...SOMEWHAT DOUBTFUL AS TO GOOD PROFILE MOISTURE
ADVECTION TO BRING VERY HEAVY SURFACE PRECIPITATION.  DECIDED TO
LOWER POPS A BIT BECAUSE GFS SEEMED TO HAVE A HEAVY INFLUENCE ON
MODEL CONSENSUS...AND SWAYED MORE TOWARD THE ECMWF QPF FORECAST
INSTEAD FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL LINGER FRIDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE OVER THE MIDWEST CONTINUES TO INFLUENCE THE HIGH PLAINS.
A SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE GREAT BASIN REGION FOR THE
WEEKEND...WHICH WILL BRING MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS WITH A FEW CHANCES
FOR A STRAY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM.  THE NEXT CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION WILL BE TOWARDS THE START OF NEXT WEEK AS A LARGER
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHES THE PLAINS FROM THE NORTHWEST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 524 PM MDT MON JUN 29 2015

FOR KGLD...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS LOOK TO STAY NEAR THE SITE
THROUGH 03Z. VERY HARD TO TELL IF SITE WILL DEFINITELY GET
AFFECTED BY A STORM DUE TO THE LOCATION OF STORMS BEING DETERMINED
BY OUTFLOW BOUNDARY COLLISIONS. SO ONLY HAVE A VCTS MENTION. OTHER
WILL HAVE VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH A SHIFTING OF THE
WINDS TO SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST DIRECTION.

FOR KMCK...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. DO NOT
EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS TO GET CLOSE TO THE SITE SO MENTION OF
THUNDERSTORMS HAS BEEN DONE. LIGHT WINDS WILL SHIFT TO A SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST DIRECTION.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...BULLER
SHORT TERM...LOCKHART
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...BULLER



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