Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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000
FXUS63 KGLD 010827
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
227 AM MDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 227 AM MDT MON SEP 1 2014

NICE MORNING TO START THE DAY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. TRI STATE
REGION BEHIND FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND RECEIVING COOLER/DRIER AIR W/ SFC
RIDGE OFF TO OUR NORTH AND WEST. THIS IS GOING TO GIVE THE CWA A
MSUNNY/SUNNY DAY WITH NNW WINDS 5-10 MPH. WITH 850/925 MB RANGING IN
THE LOW/MID 20S C...CWA WILL SEE HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S
WITH WARMEST SPOTS IN SOUTHERN/EASTERN AREAS.

GOING INTO TONIGHT...MDLS SHOWING WEAK 700MB SHORTWAVE COMING ACROSS
THE FRONT RANGE INTO THE PLAINS. THIS LOOKS TO INTERACT WITH
REMNANTS OF FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR SOUTH. THIS MAY TRIGGER OFF A
FEW ISOLATED RW AND EVEN A TRW FIRST ACROSS WESTERN ZONES THEN
SWINGING SOUTH BY 06Z TUESDAY BEFORE EXITING. NOT EXPECTING MUCH BUT
WEAK INSTABILITY COULD ALLOW FOR SOME PRECIPITATION. LOOKING FOR
ANOTHER COOL NIGHT OVER THE REGION WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS DROPPING TO
THE MID 50F RANGE.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 227 AM MDT MON SEP 1 2014

OVER THE NEXT 2-DAY PERIOD...THE TRI STATE REGION WILL HAVE A
STRETCH WITH NO EXPECTED RAINFALL. WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA
THOUGH...INCREASING TEMPS UNDER MSUNNY/SUNNY CONDITIONS WITH USHER
IN A BRIEF WARM STRETCH MAXING OUT WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER
90S...UP FROM MID/UPPER 80S FOR TUESDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE
IN THE 60S WITH EVEN A FEW 70F IN FAR EASTERN ZONES WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

BY THURSDAY...BROAD LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGING WILL SHIFT EAST AS A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL
FORCE A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA ON THURSDAY. MODELS
HAVE REMAINED CONSISTENT WITH THIS PATTERN SHIFT ALTHOUGH
DIFFERENCES DO EMERGE BY AROUND FRIDAY AND GROW THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
ECMWF IS SLOWER WITH PROGRESSING THE TROUGH EASTWARD AND GFS IS MORE
AGGRESSIVE WITH SHORTWAVE RIDGING IN ITS WAKE BY LATE SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY. THE FRONT SHOULD STALL JUST TO THE SOUTH AND THEN BECOME
ORIENTED NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
BROAD RELATIVELY WEAK PERSISTENT ISENTROPIC LIFT ON THE COLD SIDE OF
THE BOUNDARY NECESSITATES POPS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. INSTABILITY MAY
BE WEAK AT BEST WITH LIMITED THUNDER FRIDAY AND EARLY SATURDAY.
INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE LATE SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. ON CAVEAT IS
THE THE ECMWF IS FURTHER SOUTH WITH THIS SURFACE BOUNDARY AND DRIER
FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. ANOTHER CHALLENGE WILL BE HOW COOL THE POST
FRONTAL AIR MASS WILL BE. BELOW NORMAL HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S
SEEM PROBABLE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY BEFORE A SLOW WARMING TREND ON
SUNDAY BUT CURRENT FORECAST MAY BE TOO WARM IF POST FRONTAL STRATUS
AND SHOWERS ARE EXTENSIVE. CURRENT BLENDED APPROACH IS COOLER THAN
PREVIOUS FORECAST AND COOLER ON SUNDAY THAN MEX MOS. THIS SEEMS
REASONABLE SINCE GFS IS THE OUTLIER WITH STRONGER SHORTWAVE RIDGING
BY THEN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1133 PM MDT SUN AUG 31 2014

CALM WEATHER HAS RETURNED THIS EVENING. ALL CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS
WELL TO THE EAST OVER EAST KANSAS. COLD FRONT HAS PASSED THROUGH
WITH NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS PREVAILING INTO THE AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES HAVE COOLED RAPIDLY THIS EVENING. WITH TEMPS NEARING
THE DEWPOINTS AND LIGHT WINDS...THINK THERE COULD BE A CHANCE OF
SOME FOG AT KGLD. PLACED 6SM BR GROUP INTO KGLD TO HIGHLIGHT THIS
CHANCE. SOUTHEAST WINDS RETURN TOMORROW AFTERNOON AS A LEE TROUGH
DEVELOPS TO THE SOUTHWEST.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JN
LONG TERM...JN/BRB
AVIATION...RRH


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