Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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000
FXUS63 KGLD 022035 CCA
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
235 PM MDT TUE JUN 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 230 PM MDT TUE JUN 2 2015

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER FAR EASTERN
COLORADO LATE THIS AFTERNOON WITH A SLOW MOVEMENT TO THE EAST OR
EAST-NORTHEAST THIS EVENING. ACTIVITY LOOKS TO BE PRIMARILY
ALONG/NORTH OF INTERSTATE 70. VERY EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING AND
TOWARD SUNRISE SOUTHEAST WINDS ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA
(AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT/DRYLINE) TRANSPORT INCREASING
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE AND POSSIBLY SOME FOG INTO THE AREA. LOW
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60 FOR FAR EASTERN COLORADO
WITH UPPER 50S TO NEAR MID 60S EAST OF THE CO/KS BORDER.

FOR WEDNESDAY SFC LOW EXPECTED BETWEEN GOODLAND AND LEOTI AROUND 12Z
WITH A SLOW SOUTHWARD KULS BY 18Z THEN SOUTHWEST KANSAS/SOUTHEAST
COLORADO BY 00Z THURSDAY. MODELS HAVING SOME DIFFICULTY IN THE
TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THE LOW AND STATIONARY FRONT MAKING
CONVECTIVE AND TEMPERATURE FORECAST CHALLENGING.

FROM WHAT I CAN GATHER BY THE GFS/NAM THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF DRY
AIR IN THE 700-500MB LAYER COVERING ALL BUT THE FAR EAST AND
SOUTHWEST/SOUTH. ALSO IN THIS LAYER IS DOWNWARD MOTION. BELOW 700MB
MOISTURE MORE MOISTURE IS PRESENT. WITH THE MODELS SHOWING VERY
LITTLE IN THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING (DESPITE UNCAPPED CAPE
UP TO 4500 J/KG FROM THE NAM) TIL CLOSE TO 00Z WHEN 250 JET MAX
APPROACHES NORTH CENTRAL COLORADO FEEL THAT ISOLATED/LOW CHANCE POPS
WARRANTED AND HAVE LOWERED THEM FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST. MY
CURRENT FORECAST MAY BE ON THE HIGH SIDE IF ONE WERE TO BASE IT ON
MODEL QPF WHICH IS VERY LITTLE. ANY STORMS THAT DO MANAGE TO
DEVELOP WILL CERTAINLY BE SEVERE.

HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD RANGE FROM THE MID 70S IN YUMA COUNTY TO
THE MID/UPPER 80S FROM HILL CITY TO WALLACE AND TRIBUNE SOUTHWARD.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 218 PM MDT TUE JUN 2 2015

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...POSITION OF SURFACE FRONT/SURFACE LOW WILL
CONTINUE TO BE IMPORTANT TO WHERE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY DEVELOPS
AND  POSSIBLE LOCATION OF MCS DURING THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT HOURS.
WHILE NAM SHOWS GOOD PWATS/TD ITS MOISTURE FLUX IS LESS ROBUST
THAN GFS/ECMWF AND HAS LESS LARGE SCALE FORCING ADVERTISED THAN
PREVIOUS DAYS. AT THE SAME TIME MODELS SEEM TO BE IN REASONABLE
AGREEMENT ON FRONT POSITION BY THE EVENING. WITH LOW LEVEL FLOW
FROM THE EAST OR NORTHEAST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS IN PLACE IT
APPEARS WE SHOULD SEE SOME ACTIVITY DEVELOP ALONG AND NORTH OF
II-70 WITH POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORM CLUSTER OR MCS DEVELOPING TOWARDS
THE NEBRASKA BORDER (POSSIBLY FURTHER NORTH DEPENDING ON MODEL).
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW EFFECTIVE SHEER VALUES AROUND
40KT...WHICH SHOULD SUPPORT SUPERCELL THREAT EARLY IN THE EVENING
TRANSITIONING TO MORE OF A WIND THREAT LATE. STORM MOTIONS AND
POTENTIAL FOR BACKBUILDING/TRAINING CONTINUES TO RAISE HYDRO
CONCERNS.

THURSDAY-TUESDAY...QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT WILL LINGER OVER OUR
WITHIN PROXIMITY OF OUR CWA AND GULF AND PACIFIC MOISTURE WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO THE PLAINS. SW FLOW WILL SUPPORT SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS MOVING THROUGH THE REGION. THERE IS INCREASING SPREAD
TOWARDS EARLY NEXT WEEK AS GFS TRIES TO EJECT TROPICAL ENERGY INTO
THE PLAINS WHILE ECMWF KEEPS THIS OUT OVER THE PACIFIC OCEAN.
EITHER WAY PERSISTENT SW FLOW CONTINUES INTO NEXT WEEK. ALL OF
THESE FACTORS WILL COMBINE TO KEEP US IN A VERY ACTIVE
PATTERN...WITH BELOW NORMAL CONFIDENCE ON COVERAGE/DETAILS OF
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE. HAVE DECIDED TO LEAN TOWARDS
CONSENSUS/BLEND APPROACH AND REMAIN CONSISTENT. TEMPERATURES ARE
ALSO TRICKY DUE TO COMPLICATIONS OF FRONT POSITION AND CLOUD
COVER. CLEARING SKIES AND LOCATIONS SOUTH OF THE FRONT COULD SEE
HIGHS ABOVE NORMAL IN THE UPPER 80S WHILE LOCATIONS TO THE NORTH
IN CLOUD COVER MAY STRUGGLE TO REACH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1145 AM MDT TUE JUN 2 2015

KGLD...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. SOUTH WINDS
NEAR 12KTS EXPECTED FROM TAF ISSUANCE THROUGH 22Z BEFORE GUSTS
INCREASE TOWARD 20KTS FROM 23Z-01Z. HI RESOLUTION MODELS
SUGGESTING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MAY IMPACT THE
TERMINAL IN THE 23Z-01Z TIMEFRAME PRODUCING STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS
AND POSSIBLY LARGE HAIL/BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL. AFTER 02Z WINDS
RETURN TO SOUTH/SOUTH-SOUTHEAST NEAR 12KTS BEFORE BECOMING
LIGHT/VARIABLE AROUND 11Z AS SFC LOW MOVES INTO THE AREA. DURING
THE MID MORNING HOURS WEDNESDAY WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTH AND
INCREASE NEAR 12KTS AS THE SFC LOW SLIDES SLOWLY SOUTH.

KMCK...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH 10Z. SOUTHEAST WINDS
GUSTING 25KTS OR SO EXPECTED FROM TAF ISSUANCE THROUGH 02Z BEFORE
FALLING BELOW 12KTS FROM 03Z-10Z. HI RESOLUTION MODELS SUGGESTING
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MAY IMPACT THE TERMINAL IN THE
01Z-03Z TIMEFRAME PRODUCING STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS AND POSSIBLY
LARGE HAIL/BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL. AFTER 11Z-16Z A MORE EASTERLY
COMPONENT TO THE WIND WILL ALLOW INCREASING BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE TO MOVE OVER THE TERMINAL PRODUCING MVFR CIGS/VIS WITH
VFR RETURNING BY 17Z.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...BW
AVIATION...99


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