Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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000
FXUS63 KGLD 252315
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
515 PM MDT TUE AUG 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 201 PM MDT TUE AUG 25 2015

EARLY AFTERNOON WV IMAGERY AND RAP UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS RIDGE
IN PLACE ACROSS CENTRAL ROCKIES. A PLUME OF MONSOONAL MOISTURE IS
ROTATING FROM THE FOUR CORNERS REGION ROTATING INTO THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES. AT THE SURFACE LEE TROUGH IS IN PLACE ACROSS EASTERN
COLORADO WITH MAIN AXIS EXTENDING ACROSS SE COLORADO INTO SW KANSAS.

THIS AFTERNOON-EVENING...CONVECTIVE INITIATION WILL MAINLY BE ALONG
TROUGH AXIS AND ALONG HIGHER TERRAIN IN COLORADO (WEST OF OUR CWA.
CURRENTLY VERY HIGH CINH IS PREVENTING LOCAL INITIATION...HOWEVER CAP
SHOULD WEAKEN ACROSS WESTERN PARTS OF THE CWA WHERE ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. THE AREAS WHERE CAP IS MOST LIKELY
TO BREAK ALSO CORRELATE WITH LOWEST CAPE/DRIEST AIR MASS...SO
COVERAGE IS LIMITED. BEYOND A VERY SMALL THREAT FOR DRY MICROBURST
POTENTIAL...CONFIDENCE IN ANY SEVERE THREAT IS LOW.

WEDNESDAY...THERE IS A STRONGER PRECIP SIGNAL THAN TODAY FROM SOME
GUIDANCE...HOWEVER SOUNDING ACTUALLY SHOW AN EVEN DRIER AIR MASS AND
STRONGER CAP THAN TODAY. VERY HOT AIR MASS WILL SUPPORT HIGHS
APPROACHING 100F OVER PARTS OF THE CWA...AND DRY ADIABATIC MIXING
MAY SUPPORT RH VALUES AND WINDS NEAR RED FLAG THRESHOLDS. WILL NEED
TO MONITOR...PARTICULARLY IN THE WESTERN PART OF THE CWA.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 229 PM MDT TUE AUG 25 2015

A RIDGE WILL RESIDE OVER THE ROCKIES/PLAINS THROUGH FRIDAY.
HOWEVER, A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE RIDGE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.  THE RIDGE WILL REBUILD OVER THE
ROCKIES FRIDAY.  A SURFACE TROUGH WILL BE OVER EASTERN COLORADO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THEN MOVES EAST ACROSS NORTHWEST KANSAS THURSDAY
AND THURSDAY NIGHT.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO NORTHWEST KANSAS
BEHIND THE EXITING TROUGH ON FRIDAY.

GFS AND NAM MOISTURE IS SLOW MOVING AND STAYS MOSTLY TO THE NORTH
AND WEST OF THE FA LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.  THE
GFS INDICATES THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME FORCING AND MOISTURE TO IMPACT
THE FA AFTER 06Z THURSDAY AND THEN MOVE ACROSS THE REST OF THE FA
THURSDAY. CAPE VALUES ARE LOW SO PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE AS SHOWERS
WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS MOVE OUT OF THE
FA EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. PLAN TO GO WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. CHANCE POPS LOOK ON TRACK
FOR THURSDAY WITH DECREASING POPS FROM WEST TO EAST THURSDAY
NIGHT. NIL POPS ARE ON TRACK FOR FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE AND
SUBSIDENCE MOVES INTO THE FA.

MIN TEMPERATURES SHOULD COOL TO THE MID AND UPPER 60S ACROSS MOST OF
THE FA WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH NEAR 70 IN THE EAST.  MIN TEMPERATURES
THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE COOLER WITH READINGS IN THE UPPER 50S IN
EASTERN COLORADO TO AROUND 65 IN THE FAR EASTERN FA.  MAX
TEMPERATURES THURSDAY SHOULD WARM TO THE UPPER 80S/LOWER 90S.
READINGS ON FRIDAY SHOULD BE COOLER IN THE MID 80S.

IN THE EXTENDED...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...

A RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES AND PLAINS WILL KEEP THE WEATHER DRY ACROSS
THE FA THROUGH MONDAY. THE RIDGE SHIFTS EAST AND MONSOONAL MOISTURE
MOVES UP THE WEST SIDE OF THE RIDGE TO PROVIDE AT LEAST A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION OVER EASTERN COLORADO MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY.

MIN TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY NIGHTS AND THE LOWER TO MID 60S SUNDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHTS. MAX TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM TO THE UPPER 80S/LOWER 90S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 511 PM MDT TUE AUG 25 2015

LATE AFTERNOON DEW POINTS HAVE RECOVERED TO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER
60S AND WITH FORECAST LOW TEMPERATURES NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW
THOSE VALUES THERE IS A SLIGHT POSSIBILITY FOR FOG AROUND SUNRISE
AT EITHER TERMINAL. KMCK CROSSOVER TEMPERATURE IS AROUND 62 SO
FEEL SOMEWHAT MORE CONFIDENT IN THE POSSIBILITY OF FOG AT THAT
LOCATION THAN AT KGLD WHERE IT IS LOWER. EXPECTING ONLY BRIEF
VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS WITH BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS BY MID
MORNING SCOURING OUT ANY FOG WHICH MIGHT DEVELOP.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...FS
AVIATION...024


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