Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 251113

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
513 AM MDT SUN SEP 25 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Tuesday night)
Issued at 157 AM MDT Sun Sep 25 2016

Upper level trough extends from the Northern Plains...High Plains
and into norther Mexico. Main axis of forcing and plume of moisture
(apparent on early morning satellite) is well east of our CWA in
the Eastern Plains and northern Mississippi River Valley. At the
surface high pressure that originated in southern Canada is over
the Intermountain West and and building southeastward into our
CWA. A coldfront is just southeast of our CWA after passing
through late Saturday evening into the early morning hours.

Today-Tuesday night: Ridging builds eastward through these periods
and a deep dry layer remains in place. This will result in benign
weather and dry conditions persisting. Temperatures will remain below
normal through tonight before rising heights and WAA return high
temps back to seasonal normals in the mid 70s (Mon) and then lower
80s (Tue).

Main forecast concern is the potential for frost tonight (maybe a
freeze) over western and valley locations. Weak WAA associated with
building lee trough late tonight would result in slight moderation
of temps aloft, however Tds in the upper 20s, along with surface
high pressure over our CWA should set the stage for ideal
radiational cooling and temps dropping into at least the upper 30s
for much of our CWA. Mid 30s will mainly be possible in the west,
and valley locations and traditional cold spots could drop to the 30
to 32 range. I strongly considered issuance of a frost advisory,
however decided to hold off. This could still end up being a
patchy/isolated event and extent of frost potential is still in
question. This will need to be reconsidered during day shift.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Saturday)
Issued at 157 AM MDT Sun Sep 25 2016

At the start of the extended period, an upper closed low is spinning
over the Great Lakes region while another area of low pressure is
over southern California. Upper level ridging establishes itself
between these two lows. The ridge brings dry weather to the forecast
Wednesday through Thursday as it progresses across the Plains and
moves east of the region.

The closed low over the southwestern CONUS shears out on Thursday
and a series of shortwaves bring shower and thunderstorm chances to
the region Thursday night through Saturday. There are still some
differences between guidance regarding the timing of these
disturbances as they move through the southwesterly flow of the
departing ridge, along with how the Great Lakes low pressure will
play out. Will continue to monitor these discrepancies in the
upcoming days. Meanwhile, the next system moves onto the west coast
on Saturday.

Temperatures slowly decrease across the region as the ridge of high
pressure moves eastward. Expect highs in the low to mid 80s on
Wednesday dropping into the upper 70s to near 80 degrees by Friday.
Lows stay generally in the upper 40s to mid 50s.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday morning)
Issued at 513 AM MDT Sun Sep 25 2016

VFR conditions will continue through the TAF period at both KGLD
and KMCK. Gusty winds will develop after sunrise and last through
sunset today as a result of lingering tight surface gradient
behind cold front and ahead of surface high pressure. Afternoon
wind gusts will range from 25 to 30 kt with the strongest winds at
KMCK. As the surface high settles over the region and the sun
goes down winds will quickly diminish becoming light and variable
overnight tonight.


.GLD Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


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