Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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000
FXUS63 KGLD 270916
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
316 AM MDT MON JUL 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 314 AM MDT MON JUL 27 2015

LOCAL AREA WILL BE ON THE SOUTHERN FRINGE OF A STRONG SYSTEM
MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN ROCKIES TODAY. QVECTORS SUGGEST
SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING WILL EXTEND FAR ENOUGH SOUTH FOR ANOTHER
ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. VERY
UNSTABLE CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST PARTICULARLY IN NEBRASKA AND
KANSAS BUT DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS RATHER ANEMIC AT 20KTS OR LESS.
WHILE A SEVERE STORM OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT...MAINLY WIND AND
PERHAPS A FEW HAIL REPORTS...ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN SUB SEVERE FOR
THE MOST PART. MODEL QPF IS WIDESPREAD BUT MUCH LOWER COMPARED TO
SUNDAY AND 0-6KM MEAN WINDS OF 20-25KTS SUGGESTS STORMS WILL BE
MOVING...SO NOT ANTICIPATING A HEAVY RAIN THREAT EITHER.

COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER SYSTEM WILL SWEEP THROUGH
OVERNIGHT WITH NORTHERLY WINDS ACROSS THE AREA BY EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING WHICH COULD BE BREEZY/WINDY FOR AN HOUR TWO IMMEDIATELY
FOLLOWING FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH UP TO 40KTS INDICATED AT 15Z
TUESDAY MORNING IN THE 0.5KM WINDS. SURFACE DEW POINTS AND
RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL DROP DRAMATICALLY BEHIND THE FRONT WITH
TUESDAY FEELING MUCH MORE LIKE WESTERN KANSAS. HOWEVER
TEMPERATURES WILL STILL MANAGE TO CLIMB INTO THE 90S MOST
LOCATIONS. CONVECTION WILL INITIATE ALONG THE FRONT TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...AND THOUGH IT WILL LIKELY BE ACROSS FAR SOUTHWESTERN
KANSAS CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED STORM MOVING INTO SOUTHERN
AREAS THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AND EVEN INTO WEDNESDAY IN THE
RELATIVELY COOL POST FRONTAL UPSLOPE REGIME. SEVERE PARAMETERS ARE
NEGLIGIBLE BEHIND THE FRONT.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 AM MDT MON JUL 27 2015

AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...THE UPPER HIGH OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS RETROGRADES TOWARDS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION AND
WEST NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT RETURNS TO THE AREA. MODELS INDICATE A
WEAK SURFACE TROUGH DEEPENING ALONG THE FRONT RANGE ON THURSDAY THAT
APPEARS TO PERSIST INTO THE WEEKEND...BRINGING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO
THE AREA AS WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES ALSO MOVE OVER THE REGION.
LEFT SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

HIGHS LOOK TO BE IN THE UPPER 80S ON THURSDAY...INCREASING GRADUALLY
THROUGH SUNDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 90S EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE
FORECAST AREA. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 70S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1121 PM MDT SUN JUL 26 2015

VFR CONDITIONS FORECAST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AT BOTH KGLD AND
KMCK TERMINALS. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING POTENTIAL FOR
IFR OR MVFR CIGS TO DEVELOP AROUND 12Z...MAINLY AT KGLD. RECENT
GUIDANCE IS TRENDING AWAY FROM STRATUS DEVELOPMENT AT EITHER
TERMINAL...WITH BEST SIGNAL OVER EASTERN COLORADO. MAJORITY OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE TRANSITIONED SOUTH AND EAST OF BOTH
TERMINALS. A FEW SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS MAY STILL MOVE WITHIN
THE VICINITY OF BOTH TERMINALS EARLY IN THE TAF PERIOD. BETTER
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURN LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A
STRONGER UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
CURRENTLY COVERAGE APPEARS TO BE SCATTERED WITH BETTER LIFT TO THE
NORTH...SO I ONLY INTRODUCED VCTS MENTION. GUSTY SOUTH WINDS WILL
DEVELOP DURING THE DAY MONDAY AS THIS UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM BEGINS TO
SHIFT EAST.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...024
LONG TERM...JBH
AVIATION...DR


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