Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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000
FXUS63 KGLD 160430
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1030 PM MDT TUE APR 15 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 215 PM MDT TUE APR 15 2014

THE MAIN FOCUS IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE
TROUGH CURRENTLY LOCATED IN THE VICINITY OF IDAHO AND WESTERN
MONTANA. IT WILL MOVE QUICKLY SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN PLAINS LATE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW...WITH A SECOND SHORTWAVE
TROUGH APPROACHING BY THE VERY END OF THE PERIOD. PRECIPITATION
CHANCES WILL INCREASE WEDNESDAY EVENING ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA.

A PROGRESSIVE UPPER FLOW PATTERN HAS BROUGHT VERY WEAK RIDGING
WITHIN NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT TO THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. AS
THIS SHIFTS EAST...THE STRENGTHENING MID/UPPER FLOW AND APPROACHING
SHORTWAVE WILL HAVE AN INCREASING INFLUENCE OF SURFACE FLOW AND
PRESSURE FIELDS. LEE SIDE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AND
A SURFACE LOW WILL FORM IN THE VICINITY OF THE NEBRASKA/SOUTH
DAKOTA BORDER LATER TONIGHT. OF IMMEDIATE CONCERN HAS BEEN THE
BEHAVIOR OF STRENGTHENING LEE SIDE TROUGH AND ITS INFLUENCE ON
SURFACE WINDS ACROSS THE AREA. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS HAVE
CONSISTENTLY BEEN IN THE 15-20 KNOT RANGE THROUGH THE MORNING INTO
THE EARLY AFTERNOON WITH AROUND 25 KNOT GUSTS MAINLY CONFINED TO
THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. ADDITIONAL ADJUSTMENTS TO
WIND FORECAST MAY BE NEEDED THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
BASED ON SURFACE ANALYSIS AND TRENDS IN THE OBSERVATIONS. ANOTHER
CONCERN IS RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES THAT ARE NEAR CRITICAL FIRE LEVELS
ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE AREA...BUT RH VALUES
SHOULD STAY JUST ABOVE THRESHOLDS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

THE AFOREMENTIONED FIRST SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL FORCE A COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE AREA EARLY TOMORROW MORNING RESULTING IN A SHIFT TO
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS IN THE 15 TO 25 KNOT RANGE AROUND OR JUST
BEFORE SUNRISE LASTING INTO THE AFTERNOON. HIGH CLOUDS WILL
CONTINUE TO THICKEN AND LOWER...ESPECIALLY LATE IN THE DAY.
FORCING FROM THE SECOND SHORTWAVE ACROSS OUR EASTERN COLORADO
COUNTIES MAY CAUSE RAIN TO BEGIN BY EARLY EVENING ON WEDNESDAY.
WET BULB PROFILE IN FORECAST SOUNDINGS RAISES CONCERN FOR RAIN TO
QUICKLY MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO SNOW BUT FOR NOW KEPT IT ALL RAIN
FOR THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WITH A TRANSITION LIKELY OCCURRING AFTER
00Z WEDNESDAY DURING THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 319 PM MDT TUE APR 15 2014

AS MENTIONED ABOVE...THE MAIN FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE SECOND
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING. THERE ARE INDICATIONS OF FRONTOGENESIS AND LIFT
BEHIND THE MAIN COLD FRONT...MAINLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70 DURING
THIS TIME PERIOD. THERE ARE SOME CONCERNS ON HOW QUICKLY
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP AND THUS THE ONSET OF SNOW. SINCE THERE IS
NOT A WARM LAYER ALOFT...A TRANSITION FROM RAIN TO SNOW IS EXPECTED
AS TEMPERATURES FALL. THE TRANSITION SHOULD OCCUR FIRST OVER EAST
COLORADO BY MIDNIGHT WITH THE REST OF THE REGION AROUND TO AFTER
MIDNIGHT. THE BEST LIFT AND HIGHEST QPF AMOUNTS HAVE TRENDED SOUTH
AND TEMPERATURES WARMER. AS A RESULT...ENDED UP LOWERING FORECAST
SNOW AMOUNTS WITH MOST LOCATIONS ONLY RECEIVING A DUSTING. THE
HIGHEST AMOUNTS...AROUND 1-2 INCHES... SHOULD FALL OVER WICHITA AND
GREELEY COUNTIES IN KANSAS AND CHEYENNE COUNTY COLORADO.

THIS SHORTWAVE TROUGH HEADS EAST RAPIDLY THURSDAY. ALL PRECIPITATION
SHOULD BE OUT OF THE REGION BY NOON. TEMPERATURES RECOVER NICELY AS
WARMER AIR RETURNS FROM THE SOUTH DURING THE AFTERNOON. KEPT HIGH
TEMPERATURES SUPPRESSED SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70 IN CASE THERE IS SOME
SNOW TO MELT OFF IN THE MORNING.

THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM TO BRING PRECIPITATION TO THE TRI-STATE AREA
IS EXPECTED FOR THIS WEEKEND. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES IN
FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND A COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH ACROSS THE HIGH
PLAINS. PRIOR TO THIS SYSTEM...A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED WITH A
RETURN TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY SHOULD RECOVER INTO THE 70S. AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES IN ON
SATURDAY AFTERNOON...INDICATIONS ARE THAT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL DEVELOP SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE GFS AND EUROPEAN
MODELS INDICATE SURFACE CAPE GREATER THAN 500 J/KG AND MUCAPE
GREATER THAN 1000 J/KG. THE CANADIAN MODEL SUGGESTS A STRONGER FRONT
THAT WILL SCOUR OUT THE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY BEFORE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS CAN DEVELOP. WITH THE INSTABILITY PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED
AND 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR OF 25-30 KTS...LIFTED INDICES OF -2 TO -4 AND
850-500 MB LAPSE RATES OF 6-8 C/KM...A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS CAN
NOT BE RULED OUT. THE MAIN THREAT WITH THESE STORMS WOULD BE HAIL
AND POSSIBLY SOME STRONG WINDS. THE TORNADO THREAT APPEARS MINIMAL
DUE TO THE LACK OF SHEAR AND THUS WILL NOT MENTION IN THE HWO.

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE IN ON SUNDAY NIGHT...ELIMINATING
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION DURING THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK.
ATTENTION WILL THEN TURN TO THE NEXT SYSTEM TO AFFECT THE PLAINS BY
MID-WEEK. THIS SYSTEM WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY AS THE GFS
MODEL IS FORECASTING WHAT WOULD BE THE FIRST...POTENTIALLY
LARGE...SEVERE WEATHER EPISODE OF THE YEAR. HOWEVER...AS WITH MOST
SYSTEMS IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST...MODEL AGREEMENT IS QUITE POOR.
THE EUROPEAN SHOWS A STRONG SYSTEM AS WELL BUT KEEPS IT NORTH...OVER
MONTANA AND THE DAKOTAS. IF THE EUROPEAN SOLUTION WERE TO PAN
OUT...THERE MAY BE A SLIGHT OPPORTUNITY FOR SOME THUNDERSTORMS BUT
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WOULD BE MUCH LESS. ONE THING CAN BE
GUARANTEED WITH EITHER SOLUTION...MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES.
WIDESPREAD HIGH TEMPERATURES INTO THE 80S ARE POSSIBLE BY TUESDAY OF
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1030 PM MDT TUE APR 15 2014

KGLD AND KMCK...VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. FOR BOTH TERMINALS...SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 12KTS AT TAF ISSUANCE WILL SHIFT TO THE
NORTHWEST AT 15-20KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS AROUND 10Z AS A COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH. BY 14Z-15Z NORTHWEST WINDS OF 25KTS WITH GUSTS
AROUND 35KTS EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY BEFORE SLOWLY
DECREASING DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. BY 00Z NORTH WINDS
AROUND 15KTS EXPECTED WITH A CONTINUED DECREASE OF 6-10KTS FROM
THE NORTHEAST FROM 02Z-06Z. MID AND UPPER CLOUDINESS EXPECTED
THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. CIGS OF 6-9K FT POSSIBLE AFTER 00Z.

FOR KMCK ONLY...SOME WEAK INSTABILITY MOVES TOWARD THE TERMINAL
FROM THE NORTH/NORTHWEST FROM ROUGHLY 21-03Z...ENOUGH MOISTURE IS
PRESENT ALONG WITH MODEST LAPSE RATES TO POSSIBLY PRODUCE A
THUNDERSTORM. TOO EARLY AT THIS POINT TO INCLUDE IN FORECAST BUT
ITS SOMETHING WORTH WATCHING FOR FUTURE TAF ISSUANCES.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BRB
LONG TERM...RRH
AVIATION...99






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