Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 240538

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
1138 PM MDT Sat Sep 23 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 218 PM MDT Sat Sep 23 2017

Scattered thunderstorms developed this morning and are currently moving
northward across the region. With the surface front stalled across
the forecast area and the upper flow parallel to the surface
front, scattered to widespread showers and thunderstorms are
expected to continue moving across the forecast tonight and
Sunday as the front and overall upper pattern migrate very slowly
eastward across the region. 1.5 to 2 inches of rain is possible
between this afternoon and Sunday afternoon with additional rain
expected beyond that into Sunday and Monday. Localized heavy rain
is possible with some storms along with marginally severe hail in
some of the stronger storms this afternoon and evening.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday)
Issued at 205 PM MDT Sat Sep 23 2017

The extended period will start off with a wet period and then the
remainder of the week is expected to be dry. Sunday night through
Tuesday morning will be the wet period. The deep trough that has
been bringing moisture and precipitation to the region the prior few
days will still be impacting the region, and will not move east and
north of the CWA until Tuesday. The region is forecasted to receive
anywhere from 1 to 3 inches of rain.

Tuesday through Saturday are expected to be dry. The trough will
have already moved northeast of the region and northwest to zonal
upper level flow is anticipated over the CWA. For the most part, all
moisture will stay south of the area. There is a brief time on
Thursday where some moisture can sneak into the eastern Colorado
counties, but nothing significant is expected at this time.

Temperatures will be in the 50s and 60s on Monday and Tuesday, with
Monday being the cooler day. Wednesday through Saturday will stay in
the 60s and 70s, with Saturday being the warmest day.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)
Issued at 1136 PM MDT Sat Sep 23 2017

Numerous showers and isolated thunderstorms will continue to move
through the area tonight and Sunday. Lowest ceilings and
visibilities will likely be around sunrise Sunday morning when
VLIFR will be possible due to saturated conditions. Flight
categories will be slow to improve on Sunday, and may remain IFR
the entire TAF period.




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